The Rockets’ New Roster Is A Problem

The Rockets’ New Roster Is A Problem

The Rockets have wasted no time gearing up for next season, signing multiple extensions, rounding out their roster, and most importantly trading for Kevin Durant. And while adding KD to a great team is obviously a formula for success, there’s a pretty good chance their ceiling is actually a lot higher than we think. Last season, the Rockets won 52 games and secured the number two seed by simply dominating on the margins. With a defensive rating of about 111, they had the number five ranked defense, which stemmed from their absolute surplus of lengthy, athletic, defensive-minded wings and forwards. They had multiple great options for every type of offensive player. They had capable rim protectors at every position. They had the personnel to go to a ton of different lineups and schemes. And with Eime Udoka at the helm, they took complete advantage. On offense, their approach was all about dominating the possession game. One way they did that was by taking good care of the ball. And that starts with Fred Van Vleet. If we take a look at the relationship between how often a player had the ball and how often they turned it over, you’ll notice that Fred was a complete outlier, initiating most of Houston’s offense without making errors. With that said, their true superpower as a team was their ability to create second chance opportunities. They averaged nearly 15 offensive rebounds a game, which was the most we’d seen in 22 years. And through the early part of the offseason, nothing has changed on this front. Steven Adams is the best offensive rebounder we’ve seen in a very long time, and he’s still around. Shenun’s an elite offensive rebounder. Amen’s arguably the best at his position, and both Een and Jabari Smith are great as well. Between Dylan Brooks and Jaylen Green, they lost a combined one and a half offensive rebounds a game, which can easily be replaced. Not that it necessarily needs to be replaced, and I’d actually expect them to have a slightly less prominent offensive rebounding season this time around because there won’t be as many opportunities. The dominance on the glass was as much a superpower as it was a necessity, and that’s a result of their limited half-court offense, which was ultimately what held them back from being true contenders. Problem number one was the shotmaking, or lack thereof. with a true shooting of about 55%. They ranked 24th among all teams and had the second worst mark of anybody to make the playoffs. This is where trading for Durant makes the most obvious and overwhelming difference. He’s coming off a year where he shot 79% at the rim, 53% from mid-range, and 43% from three. So, he’s hyper efficient from every spot on the floor. and that fueled a true shooting of 64%, good for 12th in the NBA and second among 20 point per game scorers. Another big problem with Houston’s halfcourt offense was that it would stagnate a lot. They actually ranked dead last at about 262 passes a game, which was especially hurtful when you consider that they didn’t actually have a consistent action they could go to for efficient scoring. You’d get some post-ups from Shenon, some pick and rolls from Jaylen or Fred, and occasional isolation, but nothing that could really burn great defenses consistently, especially down the stretch of close games. Even at age 36, Kevin Durant remains one of the most devastating one-on-one scorers we’ve ever seen. Whether it’s with a live dribble from the perimeter while facing up from the elbow or turning his back to the basket near the block, nobody can stop him in single coverage, and that’s reflected in the numbers. He just averaged about five points a game in isolation, good for sixth. But what jumps out is the efficiency, landing in the 93rd percentile. Let’s compare that to Houston’s go-to guys from last year. Both Green and Shenon were incredibly inefficient on these plays and as a result, the team really struggled to break defenses down one-on-one, ranking 24th in efficiency at about8 points per possession. So, like I said, a Kevin Durant isolation immediately becomes a muchneeded go-to action for the Rockets. But what I think gets somewhat overlooked at times is how seamlessly he’s able to play off of others without the ball. In the last two seasons, he attempted over 500 catch and shoot threes and made about 45% of them. It’s hard to overstate just how valuable it is to have a near seven-footer who’s that automatic. Also, this is where Dorian Finny Smith makes a big impact because he’s coming off a season where he shot 41% from three on five attempts a game. For a team that previously struggled to find reliable spot-up shooting minutes, this is a big deal. They only ranked 25th at about 24 catch and shoot three-point attempts per game, which not only took away a valuable scoring outlet. It really hurt the spacing. One issue this team consistently ran into was that defenses didn’t really respect the guys spotting up, allowing them to pack the paint and sit on postups or driving lanes. Durant and Finny Smith immediately become the two best spot-up shooters this roster has seen, which then makes things easier for other guys like Alpra and Shenon. For the first time in his young career, Shenun will finally have floor spacers around him as he operates in the post. In my opinion, this is where he’s at his best as an offensive player, as he’s got a pretty deep bag of moves to go along with some really impressive passing. Keep in mind, his playmaking options were really limited last year. Yet, he still found a way to produce 1.05 points per post up on volume. So, with more weapons to draw the attention of help defenders, I’d expect the Rockets to lean into this as another go-to action. However, I do think it’s worth noting that while Durant still an elite isolation scorer, at this point, he isn’t someone who’s going to put a ton of pressure on the rim. He only averaged two shots at the rim every 75 possessions last season, which was less than shooters like Duncan Robinson, Buddy Heield, and Kevin Herder. For all of the drawbacks with Jaylen Green, one thing he offered was consistent downhill pressure. And I think in order for the Rockets to really take that next leap into a championship caliber offense, they’ll have to find someone to fill that void, which is why I believe they’re really banking on a men Thompson taking a jump. The Flashes have been there since he entered the league, as he’s got the athleticism to generate paint touches seemingly at will. But whether or not he can develop into a legitimate halfcourt creator could determine whether or not this move ends up being a success. While Green’s dynamic pick and roll scoring may not have been the most efficient offensive option, it did help put stress on defenses at multiple levels. And without a leap from Thompson, they really don’t have anybody who can slash into the defense and cause a collapse. And for these reasons, I’m expecting a bit of a shift in their overall approach, notably adding more motion. Like I said, they ranked dead last in passes last year, and in order to really maximize Durant while finding more ways to generate paint touches, they’ll have to do a better job of creating offball action. It’s not like they don’t have the personnel. Adams and Shenon are two of the best passing bigs in the league. Adams, in particular, is really good at playing from up top, setting up delay action, landing hard screens, and creating movement. And I don’t know if you knew this, but he had pretty good chemistry with Kevin Durant at one point. In my opinion, this should be the next leap for Shenon, and unlocking this area of his game could be what gets him to that AllNBA level. He’s got the handle and passing ability to run offense from the perimeter, and him becoming a legitimate playmaker in these spots could determine the ceiling of Houston’s offense. So, while adding Durant and Finny Smith obviously makes them a better offense, there are still a few areas I think they need to address to get to that championship level. If Amen Thompson takes a serious leap as a creator, basically all of my questions are answered. But another concern I didn’t really touch on is that I do think this team somewhat lacks highlevel playmaking, which is why another important area of development could be unlocking Shenon in more of a point center role. The big thing though is that they now have a few go-to actions. An isolation for Durant should be number one. A post up for Shenon should be number two. and their freelance offense could run through Adams or Shenon at the top of the key with offball screens, handoffs, and lateral action to create movement and downhill pressure. Then you can still go to some high pick and roll setups with Fred, Amen, or KD, or even some stuff with KD as a screener. And the point I’m trying to get at is that these moves give them a much more versatile and efficient halfcourt offense. On the defensive side of things, like I mentioned earlier, they were ranked fifth. And while they changed a bit, I do think they should be able to replicate that. By trading Dylan Brooks, they lost one of the best man defenders in the NBA and their go-to matchup for physical wings. And while they didn’t replace that specific value, they did add two very switchable defensive forwards. Finny Smith, in particular, is someone who can play up multiple positions and guard most archetypes, while KD, even at his age, still has the length and agility to cover a ton of different options. Keep in mind, they were already the biggest team in the NBA before making any moves. And they’ve only gotten even bigger, even lengthier, and even better at protecting the rim. I haven’t even talked about the signing of Clint Capella, who can either play some spot minutes at the five, or be used as a trade piece with his contract. The two main keys to their top five defense were versatility on the wings, which they still have, and rim protection from every position, which improved. Amen’s a huge vertical presence in the back court. Een and Smith are really solid secondary rim protectors. And KD is one of the better shot blocking forwards in the league. As for the center position, Shenun’s biggest defensive strength is his ability to play at the level of screens so they can send him out to ball handlers while always having somebody in position to hold down the paint. And if you’re worried about them replacing Brooks at the point of attack, they’ve still got a men as a go-to guy. And you could probably make an argument for him as the best perimeter defender in the league. Finny Smith isn’t agile enough to consistently match up with elite ones or twos, but against forwards or bigger wing creators, he absolutely has the tools to hold his own. And those backcourt players aren’t even much of a concern because Fred is one of the few small guards in the league who can legitimately match up at the point of attack. Then off the bench, they’ve got guys like Holiday, Een, or potentially even some increased minutes for Reed Shepard. So, the defensive personnel remains really good. With all of the size, defensive versatility, and depth off the bench, Houston’s superpower heading into next season might just be lineup flexibility. They can go small with KD at the five and a ton of athletic defensive wings. They can go big like they did last season with Adams and Shenon. They can go huge with Adams, Shenun, and KD. And they can even go to maybe the biggest lineup in NBA history with KD at the two next to Jabari, Adams, and Shenon in the front court. They’ve got defensive lineups, three-point shooting lineups, rebounding lineups, you name it, they check that box. And that’s what playoff basketball is all about. So, I view them as a team that should absolutely translate to April, May, or even June hoops. And most importantly, they’ve done all of this without sacrificing their young core. Shenun and Amen are still only 23 years old. Jabari Smith is 22. Reed Shepard and Cam Whitmore are 21. So, even if this experiment were to go south, it’s not like the Rockets have to salvage a future. All things considered though, I think a 52- win team just got noticeably better. They’re still just as good, if not better, at all of the strengths that led the way for them last season. While they drastically improved a few of their major weak points. So, barring health, don’t be surprised if they emerge as a 60- win team or if they pose the biggest threat to OKC out west. If you enjoyed this breakdown, make sure to drop a like, subscribe, and turn my post notifications on to be first on more content. If you’re interested in my more in-depth research, make sure to check out the Hoop Venue podcast and my social media profiles. You can find those links in the description. Feel free to let me know down in the comments what you think of the Rockets. As always, I hope you all have a great day and I’ll catch you guys in the next one. [Music]

Since trading for Kevin Durant the Rockets have rounded out their roster, and their ceiling might be a lot higher than you think.

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