RISKY: Pelicans’ Two-Timeline Gamble | Will Zion Williamson’s Health DERAIL Everything?

RISKY: Pelicans’ Two-Timeline Gamble | Will Zion Williamson’s Health DERAIL Everything?

The Pelicans are attempting a two timelines approach, and if they don’t nail it, it could set the franchise back years. I’ll tell you why it’s risky, but how the Pelicans can pull this off. It’s the Friday episode of Locked On Pelicans. Let’s go. You are Locked On Pelicans, your daily New Orleans Pelicans podcast, part of the Locked On Network. your team every day. Welcome to another edition of Locked On Pelicans, the daily podcast covering your favorite team, the New Orleans Pelicans and NBA. Part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day, available wherever you get your podcast and available on YouTube. I’m your host, Pelicans Insider, credential member of the media, JakeMadison, Nola Jake on Twitter, here with y’all on this Friday and we are of course going to do the two timelines episode. why this is so risky, what the Pelicans are doing, how it could fail, but also how they pull this off, and why then it’s a massive success for this team. So, we’ve got a lot to cover in today’s episode of Locked On Pelicans. This episode is brought to you by Game Time. Download the Game Time app, create an account, and use code locked on NBA for $20 off your first purchase. And of course, thank you for making Locked On Pelicans your first listen today and every day. We’re here Monday through Friday, the number one Pelicans podcast, covering everything you want to know about this Pelicans team. So, please subscribe wherever you get your podcast and join over 11,000 Pelicans fans on YouTube as well and become an everydayer. That means you listen Monday through Friday to the Locked On Pelicans podcast. And don’t forget, watch us on the GF Coast Sports and Entertainment Network every weekday at 10:30 a.m. Same place you watch your Pelicans play. So, let’s get into this one. I’ve been wanting to do this show basically since draft night here. The Pelicans are attempting to do two timelines. I’m going to put in quotes. Two timelines. You hear a number of NBA teams doing this and to me this is a dreaded thing. This is not something that works out. So, let’s get into what two timelines is. The whole goal of two timelines is well, you got two timelines. You have your win now timeline, but also then your develop guys for the future timeline. You know, with the two timelines, you’re you’re trying to win down with your current core while developing your next core essentially. so that when your current core right now is done, you have guys ready in the wings to take over the team. This is not nearly the same thing as developing one or two young guys who are role players but not core pieces going forward. I’m going to point to the Golden State Warriors is the mo one of the more recent examples of where this has really gone wrong. They had a core around Steph Curry, Draymond Green, Klay Thompson, right? Like that was the core that was winning them titles. And then they had a bunch of lottery picks in Jonathan Kaminga, who we’ve talked a lot about, doesn’t appear to be a core piece for them going forward. Uh Moses Moody, who hasn’t developed to be a core guy that you can build around going forward, and then James Wiseman with the second overall pick, right? They had all of those guys that were supposed to be ready to take over when Steph is aging, when Draymond is aging, when Klay Thompson was no longer there. And that’s not the case anymore. They wouldn’t have traded for Jimmy Butler if those guys were ready to kind of pick up the reigns and run with it. The Denver Nuggets have wanted to do this to get guys that can replace uh Michael Porter Jr. and Jamal Murray, but they haven’t. Sure. Sure, Julian Strawther and Christian Brown are nice role players, but those aren’t guys that you build around. So now they’re forced to kind of do dramatic trades. And while I like their off season to keep it going around Jokic, the whole point was that you don’t need to do those dramatic moves because you have guys waiting in the wings. But it hasn’t worked because as they’ve been trying to win now, same for the Warriors and the Nuggets. you don’t play the young guys, right? You know, the Pelicans are trying to build around Zion, Trey, and Herb right now, but also develop, you know, Jeremiah Fears and Dererick Queen, the guys they just drafted, and probably to a lesser extent, Eve Mei as well. You know, the issue with this and why these two things conflict is young guys need minutes. Young guys need minutes to play, to grow, and develop, but they don’t often contribute to winning basketball for their first couple of years. You know, when you look at the past couple of drafts, and I did here, right, the 2024 NBA draft, none of those guys contributed to winning. I’m going to go off like two, three stats here that just kind of sum it up, right? Rookies don’t contribute immediately. If you look at box score plus minus, which is a good kind of all-enamp encompassing thing. Basically, everyone from last year’s draft class was a negative. The number one overall pick was minus 3.5. That number is not good. These guys were not better than basically replacement level players in the NBA. So guys that you could just sign for a minimum in free agency. Reese, Alex Sar, Reed Shepard, Stefon Castle, Ron Holland. Holland didn’t contribute to the the the Pistons winning games. Reed Shepard we thought was going to wi win rookie of the year, the third overall pick for the Houston Rockets. And he played under 700 minutes this past season because they were trying to win now and knew that playing him would hurt their chances of doing that. Go back a draft before that. Victor Webbyama, Brandon Miller, Scoot Henderson at the top. Then the the Thompson twins, Amen and Assur, you know, other than Wemby, who’s an outlier, who was massively impactful as a rookie. Brandon Miller didn’t help them win. Scoot Henderson didn’t help them win. Amen Thompson did largely on the back of his defense. It took a Sir Thompson until this past year to really contribute. But Anthony Black at six overall, nope. Right. You can go down the line and look at guys that just did not help their team win. There’s one or two outliers in there. Derek Lively did with the Dallas Mavericks, but overall they don’t help contribute to winning immediately. When you look at Paulo um Beno, the number one overall pick from 2022, he more or less like just started actively contributing to them winning more games than losing. His rookie year was rough and then the next two years really helped. But even him didn’t, right? Chad Homegrren, it took a little bit. Jabari Smith Jr. still isn’t helping that team win. You know, they’re winning with other things and there’s a reason why the Houston Rockets added Kevin Durant, right? Jaden Ivy isn’t helping him win. Benick Mathan comes off the bench for the Indiana Pacers in the finals. The two timelines approach if you’re relying on rookies can be rough. Can be rough. And these guys don’t get tons of minutes. And that’s part of the problem. Right. So now the Pelicans are in a situation where because they traded their first round pick next year to move up in this draft and and get Derek Queen, you need these rookies to make an outsized impact because they’re not able to add massively impactful players or upgrades at other positions. So that puts so much pressure on these young guys and now when they’re on the court, are they scared to make mistakes? Do they play passive? that tends to stall development, especially for a guy like Jeremiah Fears whose game is kind of built on his aggression and playing well, pun intended, fearless here. You know, when you look at players who are trying to grow and they’re worried about looking over their shoulder and getting pulled, Dyson Daniels is a great example of this. He was never going to develop into the player that he became because he was constantly looking over his shoulder and worried about being benched or pulled from the game by head coach Willie Green. So that type of situation where these guys feel they need to be perfect and can’t make mistakes otherwise they’re going to lose their spot in the rotation stalls growth. It leads to them not be reaching their full potential or becoming the players that we want him to be. If you make Jeremiah Fears a more passive player, that kind of negates why you drafted him in the first place, right? And so now all of a sudden these guys aren’t able to contribute in a positive way. So you’re not winning. you’re not developing the young guys that you you need to develop and it becomes a lose-lose situation. Even if Fears and Queen are future guys, right? Guys that you’re like, “Oh yeah, we can really build around him.” And look, we’ll talk about that. These both look like players that you can absolutely build around going forward. You know, you still need to add to the core of those two guys. And that’s why not having next year’s pick if you’re losing is not great. They essentially use next year’s pick this year, right? It’s like a credit card advance is what I said on draft night. I don’t I don’t hate it. You pay a little bit more to do that, but you get your guy and you get what you want. I have no problem with that kind of in a vacuum even with the overpay a little bit, but you also still need to add to that core and you’re putting pressure on these guys and I don’t love that. I don’t like the two timelines approach. You want to stick to a lane and kind of commit to it. And now the Pelicans can’t do that. you know, even if you lose a bunch of games and you’re like, “Well, we at least got these two young guys. Who cares? We weren’t good. We’ve got the future set.” Again, you still need picks to add to that and you’re not going to get that next year. It’s not ideal. This is a big risk for the Pelicans and it’s complicated by the fact of Willie Green. This is something they need to figure out. There there’s a silver lining in this and I’ll tell you what it is coming up here next, but right now Willie Green doesn’t look like the correct head coach for this team at all. And let’s talk about that. That’s coming up here next in today’s episode of Locked On Pelicans. Today’s episode of Locked On Pelicans is brought to you by Game Time. We’ve all been there. Logging on early and waiting forever for concert tickets to go on sale only to lose your spot for a show you’ve been dying to see. 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Download the Game Time app, create an account, use code locked on NBA for $20 off your first purchase. Terms apply. Again, create an account, redeem code LOC NBA for $20 off. Download the Game Time app today. Last minute tickets, lowest price guaranteed. And thank you for um for making Lockdown Pelicans your first listen today and every day. We’re here Monday through Friday, the number one Pelicans podcast covering everything you want to know about this Pelicans team. So please subscribe wherever you get your podcast and join over 11,000 Pelicans fans on YouTube as well. And become an everydayer. That means you listen Monday through Friday to the Locked On Pelicans podcast. We are part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day. Don’t forget, watch us on the GF Coast Sports and Entertainment Network every weekday at 10:30 a.m. For your second listen, go check out Locked on NBA. There’s no offseason in the association. Doug, Matt, and Hayes keep you up to date on contract negotiations, rumors, and everything you need to be the most informed NBA fan. Find Locked on NBA on YouTube or wherever you listen to your podcast. Part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day. There’s also still Lockdown NBA game night, which is what I do every Friday with John Carales of Lockdown Celtics. I want to talk about some Jonas Valuna stuff on that show which I’m recording immediately after this. So, let’s look at head coach Willie Green with this team. Right. I just went over in general, I don’t think two timelines work. They’re just kind of at ideological odds with one another and it puts a lot of pressure on these rookies that maybe they’re just not ready to handle. And so, in general, I don’t I don’t love this, right? But part of the problem is going to be head coach Willie Green. Look, no matter what, even if you lose games and don’t make the playoffs and this team has no incentive to do that. That might happen, but they have no incentive to purposely lose games. It’s one thing to lose games, play young guys, and call it development, right? But they don’t have a reason to do that because you’re not going to get the benefits of the draft pick with it. So, for them to kind of justify this trade a little bit, you’ve got to not send a good pick to Atlanta next year in the deal to move up 10 spots and draft Derek Queen. But Willie Green is going to complicate this, right? At least if you develop the rookies and send a good draft pick, whatever. You could be like, “Look at how good Jeremiah Fears and Dererick Queen look and you can justify it like that. But what if you don’t play them enough and you don’t make the playoffs?” That’s the risk here. That’s the lose-lose scenario here. If you come away from next season be like, “Yeah, we don’t know what we have in Fears and Queen.” Willie Green’s going to be part of this problem. He’s out of contract after this season. you know, he needs to win to keep his job and or help him get another job in the future. Is he going to play the young guys, the young rookies who need developmental minutes if it means the team is going to lose games because of them? Look, you can go look up draft picks over the past couple drafts and see which ones like massively impacted winning at a high level. You can look at it from the box, not the box scores, but the advanced statistics. You can also look at it from just watching film. Look, you you could boil it down to do they turn the ball over a ton, right? Are they having smart shot selection? You know, one of the things that’s tougher to quantify and even see is are they good defensively? You’re not going to see a ton and that’s concerning, you know, because the Pelicans need to win now. So, if Willie Green is going to see these guys not helping them win or maybe actively losing them games, he’s not going to want to do that, right? you know, he’s going to want to play guys like Kavon Looney significantly more minutes over Derrick Queen. Looney who he coached in Golden State and who just is a proven bet that you know what you’re going to get from him. And frankly, Looney could could be I’m not saying he will, but could be better than Dererick Queen next year. Quinn could also be better, too. So, if that’s going to be the case, you’re not getting the development for the young guys. And this roster, you know, while there’s talent here, the West is tough. I don’t know if they’re I they’re not a locked to make the playoffs. They’re maybe in the fight for the playing tournament is where I’d personally put them. That’s enough to get you in and that can be fine. But this team is far from looking at and saying like they’re going to be good next year. I’m not really willing to say that. I get that last year was more about the injuries that they suffered and all of that than just a bad team. And it was, but again, do you do do you trust Zion Williamson to stay healthy? He’s kind of the wild card factor in all of this. So there’s there’s that side of it too with everything. So, let me ask you another question about this, right? You know, if you’ve get these developmental minutes for these young guys, you know, and you want to win now, Joe, does does Joe Dumar even want Willie Green to play the young guys or does he want him to play the vets right now and bring these young guys along a little bit differently? Right. You know, one of the things that it’s been rumored, Joe Dumar is very interested in kind of beefing up when it comes to this team, and my talks to people around the team have have indicated this too, is that they really want to work on internal player development, growing their guys. Does that mean growing these guys without minutes on the court? Does that mean, you know, through practices or time in the G-League? Does that mean growing these guys in NBA minutes? G-League minutes don’t matter to these guys. That is an entirely different game. If you talk to coaches in front office executives around the league, when a guy goes down to the G-League and like lights it up, it’s not like that guy’s good. It’s just Yeah, that game is so different for an NBA player playing in the G-League. Kyrie Lewis Jr. lit it up in the G-League. He didn’t do anything in the NBA, right? Even prior to the injury that he suffered. So, that’s not a way from, in my opinion, to really develop young guys. you know, they the Pelicans probably should have picked a lane rather than trying to kind of straddle two sides of a coin here or thread a very thin needle, but Joe Dumar’s, you know, maybe beefing up the internal development, that’s maybe his way of kind of straddling all of this, of doing both things at once. So, there’s there’s reasons to be optimistic that if they’re investing in other areas to help these young guys develop while maybe not playing them significant minutes at the NBA level, their rookie years, they can still come along, grow, turn into the players you want them to turn into, while also still giving you the best chance to win now. And maybe that’s a way that they’re, you know, really looking at all of it. You know, maybe that’s why Joe Dumar is beefing up the internal development because he knows these guys might not play enough and they at least need to be able to ready to grow these guys in a way that yeah, they they absolutely weren’t before. And if that’s the case, I’m glad there’s a comprehensive plan here because that’s what they need. They need a comprehensive plan for what they’re doing. This can’t just be let’s acquire a bunch of talent, then we’ll figure it out later. No, no, you you need to act intentionally with what you’re doing. Maybe they’re doing that, but maybe not. We don’t have the full idea or the complete picture of what it all looks like. And so that’s where this is risky. It might work out. I actually think it could work out very easily. We’ll talk about that in the next segment here. But it is a massive, massive risk. Could be worse. They didn’t trade away multiple future first. It’s just one pick next year and then you immediately get back to it. But that pick could be very, very valuable. Very, very valuable. And it puts more pressure on a guy like Derek Queen. And Queen, to his credit, seems ready for it. Seems absolutely ready for it. And I appreciate kind of the swagger that he has and the and the mental toughness that it seems like he really possesses. So, it’s going to be interesting to see what next year looks like in terms of development and everything for this Pelicans squad. But some of these guys can, I think, make an impact as a rookie and really come out and help this team win right away. So, we’re we’re going to find out, right? You know, and look, since you essentially move next year’s pick up to this draft, it can be fine, right? The reason people are down on this is because they just don’t believe in what the Pelicans are doing. But it’s also TBD. There’s there’s more to come. I think there’s more moves to come. You know, Kaminga has been rumored to this team, even if I don’t love what it would take and the fit’s a little bit clunky. There’s ways they can still keep reshaping the roster and we’re seeing that from Joe Dumar. So, I I think I can safely say, you know, they’re not just resting on their laurels here, to use a cliche. They’re actively looking for ways to improve the team. Whether you trust the current front office to do that in a smart way, different story, but they’re doing what they think they need to do. They do feel like they have a plan in place and are going about it in an intentional way, even if it doesn’t appear that way to outsiders. There’s there’s something to that, right? But these guys in fears and queen do need to work out to kind of justify everything that they’ve done. Otherwise, it it sets you back pretty far. And that’s not a great position to be in. So, let’s talk about how it all works out. How how do they do all this? How do they pull all of this off? The two timelines approach and all of that. That’s coming up here next in today’s episode of Locked on Pelicans. And thank you for making Locked on Pelicans your first listen today and every day. We’re here Monday through Friday, the number one Pelicans podcast covering everything you want to know about this Pelicans team. So please subscribe wherever you get your podcast. And join over 11,000 Pelicans fans on YouTube as well. And become an everydayer. That means you listen Monday through Friday to the Lockdown Pelicans podcast. We are part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day. Subscribe, watch us on YouTube, comment on YouTube, especially if you’re an everydayer. That means you listen Monday through Friday. I see y’all down there in the comments. And of course, watch us on the GF Coast Sports and Entertainment Network. Put that channel on TV wherever y’all are. Um, it’s cool that it’s the the show is on there, the same channel where you can watch your Pelicans play. For your second listen, it’s Locked on Saints with Ross Jackson making sense of everything. Black and gold, Tyler Shook, all the other positions. Ross Jackson’s going to tell you what you need to know about the New Orleans Saints. We he make him your second listen today. He’s part of the lockdown podcast network. Your team every day. So this is a risky direction the Pelicans are going trying to go down two roads. It doesn’t really work out. Look, the best example of where it worked out and this is more of an outlier than anything is the San Antonio Spurs with the David Robinson to Tim Duncan era, right? They had they both over overlapped for a little bit, won a title and that was good and then they managed to get the other young guys. That’s a little bit different because look, they weren’t like winning titles under just, you know, David Robinson. I might have said Duncan Robinson. David Robinson. And then like slowly develop these other young guys, right? That was just getting the right guys and then Tim Duncan being a special special player for what he is. You know, the Los Angeles Lakers didn’t develop didn’t do a two timelines plan at any point in time. They had good role players, but not core guys that then took up the mantle. That team fell off when basically Kobe and Shaq ended. They weren’t good for a little bit. Then they got Pow Gasol in there, Kobe and Pal. But that’s not a two timelines approach. There weren’t the young guys in there that when Kobe left, they became good, right? Or when Pow Gasol left, they became good. They went through a wasteland till they got LeBron James. It doesn’t often work out because these two things are a little bit at odds with one another. But there is some hope that it can all work out. I was exceptionally high on Jeremiah Fears coming into this draft and I do think he is the type of guard and I want to look at this more early on next week. It might be on the Monday show unless we get more trade news or free agent stuff, offseason news, but Fears has the type of profile in his game that I do think can actually make an impact at the NBA level immediately. There’s a couple of stats that jump out at you when you get into some really interesting numbers and I’ll share those with you next week. And then when you watch his film, it gets kind of backed up by all that. So, he passes the eye test and the stats sheet and that’s really encouraging for what he can do at the NBA level for the New Orleans Pelicans as a rookie. It’s really tough for point guards as a rookie to impact winning. They often put up numbers but don’t impact winning. I do think fears with a healthy team and Zion Williams and you know Trey Murphy taking a leap all of that can really elevate this team big time. I think you know Derek Queen is there too that can really kind of maybe anchor some lineups. Again it’s putting a lot on him as a rookie when maybe Zion Williamson isn’t on the court but I also do think he and Zion are going to be able to coexist. It might come down to something we talked about in yesterday’s show that the everydayers heard of. Well, you’re really going to need a creative offense and someone to smartly put all of this together. And the Pelicans certainly can do that under head coach Jame or not head coach, associate head coach James Burggo. Woo. And if you do that, this team can be pretty scary. You also have Jordan Pool in the mix. You know, there’s enough talent here for this team to be good where maybe you don’t need to rely on the rookies. And by good, I mean, you know, playing tournament good. That’s kind of where you’re looking at with them. Maybe top maybe succeeded the best. And that’s with health, which it’s the New Orleans Pelicans. When has that ever kind of been been the thing here? But Fierce projects as a guy that could start on day one. I don’t know if he will, but I think he could, and I think it’s worth it. It might depend on how he looks in summer league in preeason for this team. But he’s the type of player in the way his game is molded, even with the with the lack of an outside shot right now, that I think he can make an immediate impact on this roster. Same for Derrick Queen. I think you can find ways to really get him in here. Another thing, couple other things to keep in mind with that, expect a leap from Trey Murphy. If you’re kind of looking at the progression from him and growth from him as a player, if he does take a big leap, that’s really going to help this team and make up for the rookies a little bit here. You know, if Zion Williamson stays healthy, basically, I think I’ve done the show, the everyday probably remember this, Zion Williamson kind of by himself is, you know, enough to get you like 40 wins, almost to 500 if he’s healthy for the whole season with the impact he makes. And that’s even without ever having a three-point shooting big or a ton of shooting around him. That’s how good he can be and how impactful of a player he can be if he’s healthy. And it’s a big if, right? There’s no reason to actually bank on that truthfully. But if it were to ever come together, he’s going to carry you really, really far. Takes the pressure off those rookies to just go out and do their thing. That’s encouraging. Same thing with Trey Murphy taking a big leap and being able to carry more of an offensive load and help on defense in rebounding a little bit more. So, there’s reasons to be thinking this, you know, the Pelicans might be able to pull this approach off. And that’s while still giving good minutes and important minutes to Jeremiah Fears, Dererick Queen, and some of some of the other young guys that we haven’t really focused on a ton in today’s show. A a third point I want to make about this too is thinking even more long term than what we probably are. We’re kind of looking at next season, right? And then beyond that, well, who knows? But we’re kind of focusing on, well, you got to what’s going to happen with the draft pick next year? They are somewhat futureproofing your team. Should Zion Williamson not be on it? You know, I don’t look at them as building a team where they’re going to build this team and then trade Zion Williamson away. That that’s not how you’re going to win games next year at all. at all. The way you win games is with Zion Williamson and then other good enough pieces around him. If you trade away Zion, they’re not building a team that can compete without Zion or anything like that. I don’t see that in the slightest here. You know, after the way they’ve kind of publicly backed Zion, I think that would be super weird to do. And I don’t think you’re going to get a Hall next year where cool, we got we got a lottery pick now because we traded Zion Williamson away. That’s just not going to happen. If you could get that for him, you would have just done it already. Truthfully, they would have. There there were no good offers for Zion coming in at all. But Derrick Queen does look like he could be a a different kind of replacement for Zion Williamson, your offensive hub out of the big man spot, which Zion Williamson kind of is and can be right now. You know, Jeremiah Fears can be your primary ball handler, whereas it’s Zion is your primary ball handler right now. Kind of doing some of that like almost insurance should things just go south and you have to trade Zion Reeves in a way. The idea is well, okay, we’re not starting from zero. We have these two young guys already. So, we’re doing our rebuild a little later than we would have ideally done it, but we’re still in a pretty good position to go forward and feel a competitive team in the future and have your core in place. That’s how this pays off. You’d like to do that while getting into the playoffs and being competitive and giving these young guys important minutes next season, too. And I’d still think they can kind of pull that off. It’s going to be hard. It’s not going to be easy in the West. Who knows? But there’s definitely a chance that all of that could happen. So, coming up next week on Lockdown Pelicans, I want to look at Jeremiah fears maybe on Monday and really doing a deep dive on his games, get you set for summer league, too. We’ll do the same for Derrick Queen and where the Pelicans kind of go from here with everything. So, that’s going to do it for this episode of Locked On Pelicans. As always, I’m your host Jake Madison at Nola Jake on Twitter. We are part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day. See y’all next week.

Pelicans gamble on “two timelines” strategy. Can they win now and build for the future?

Jake Madison breaks down the New Orleans Pelicans’ ambitious approach to team building, balancing immediate success with long-term development. The discussion covers the risks of this strategy, Willie Green’s crucial role, and how players like Jeremiah Fears and Derik Queen fit into the plan. Madison analyzes the potential impact on Zion Williamson’s future with the team and explores how this approach could reshape the Pelicans’ roster.

Tune in for an in-depth look at the Pelicans’ high-stakes balancing act and its implications for their playoff aspirations.

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