What sets the ceiling for the new Houston Rockets?

What sets the ceiling for the new Houston Rockets?

[Music] The Houston Rockets have liftoff and boy has it been a pretty stellar free agency so far for them. What I want to do is doubleclick on a few actions that they took and then dive into the dictating focus area that I really think is going to be the determinant of their ceiling going into next season. Most projections having them as the second best team in the Western Conference without having seen anything yet and just looking at what’s on paper, I would support that. So, congrats to them. Thank you guys so much for watching and I’m so so excited to dive in and finally digest the absolute craziness that was free agency. First, Dorian Finny Smith comes in for Dylan Brooks, backfilling him on the defensive end primarily. We will get to Kevin Durant, do not worry. Dorian is going to provide better spacing, probably more consistent shooting. Although, props to Brooks for really elevating his own perimeter potency decision-m with the shooting, a bit less of a gunslinging maverick. Although, if you had watched this Rockets team’s halfcourt offense last year, I feel like I have more empathy than most people for Brooks’s shot selection. But obviously now things have changed and Dorian is not going to have any of those instincts. His mobility as well. This is just an eye test thing. Brooks is very good as an onball defender, although his shoulders and his just movement patterns are a little bit slower. Kind of lumbers around a little bit. Dorian is a little more fluid. And that I think is going to pair really nicely with the continuation of their very aggressive perimeter defense in turning you over, getting out in the fast break. Probably trail every time for kick out threes, that kind of stuff. Fitting what he may want. Team is in a different place now with overall where the acquisitions are, some of the experience pieces. And so Dorian is a role player that loves being a role player. And I think that that is quintessential to what Eay has in mind. Doing the dirty work, enjoying doing that low usage and contributing that way. Also, the versatility as a defender and a plug-and-play kind of offensive player, floor spacer in that small forward, power forward position, 34 is just going to be really, really helpful. Not going to lie, I was really surprised that they were able to snag him. Sounds to me like the Lakers did not have their together, plot twist, or really didn’t have a good sense of how aggressive the Rockets were going to be in free agency. It just felt like a no-brainer guy that the Lakers just had to maybe even pay a premium to bring back. Center City, they bring in Clint Capella, 3 years, $21.5 million. Steven Adams, they resign, three years, $39 million. Obviously, they have their starting big in Alpurn Shenon. His trajectory looks sensational. A lot of skill on the offensive end that I’m really, really excited to see. Now, they have two pretty strictly limited bigs in Capella and Adams. Adams of course shined in the postseason given that really favorable matchup against the Warriors. offensive rebounding, giving them extra possessions, really helpful for teams without ton of really effective skills and schemes in the half court offensively. Capella’s coming in now as insurance for Adams. I think it’s noteworthy that only average 14 minutes a game in the regular season and that boosted up to 22 minutes per game in the one playoff series they had against the Warriors. Again, a favorable matchup, but it’s clear at this point he needs to be paced throughout the regular season and bringing in Capella is obviously going to do that. Moreover, I think it’s insurance for the Dallas and Denver matchups here. Dallas infamously really kind of started this whole tandem big thing with Gaffford and Lively coming in and splitting those center minutes, going balls to the wall in those minutes and allowing constant rim deterrence as well as rim pressure on offense. Denver, of course, is the reason why Rudy Goar is even on payroll in Minnesota, having two big bodies to really slow him down, just like Hardenstein coming over to Oklahoma City. It’ll be interesting to see how often they’re going to really lean into this double big scenario. Obviously having Capella in there kind of down low, mucking things up alongside of Shenun, who does like to operate closer to the rim in the short mid-range region, post, all of that. It would have been cool to have gotten some kind of a floor spacing big for versatility like Brooke Lopez comes to mind for me, but the fact that they didn’t have to include Jabari in the Kevin Durant like still blows my mind. But definitely a viable option if they wanted to go ahead and throw that out there pending of course LP who is not the best floor spacer. I’m sure that went into their calculations. Now Kevin Durant is at a very very interesting stage of his story now. And this chapter of the quote ring chase I think is different from virtually any other that we’ve seen. the first time he is not jumping ship to a quote super team since literally leaving Oklahoma City in like 2014. And the composition of the team he’s going to is filled with youth. A lot of guys that are on the upward trajectory, not at the peak of their powers. And so he is not going to be sort of managing, wrestling with rival egos, expectations, desires for different schemes. He is the veteran voice of this team. And I do think that brings a lot of potential on the table for his legacy, leading this team. Granted, second in the Western Conference last year, but obviously came up short even just in the first round. bringing this team to greater heights is going to be something that I think can offer him quite a lot in sort of steering his story when we look back on it. I also think that the EMA piece is notable as well in Phoenix in Brooklyn. It was clear that an extension of the whole super team thing is that the coaches really didn’t coach a ton or kind of dictate terms if you will. I think KD likes when that is the case. I think he is a system player at heart and he likes to contribute to team success in his own way which is maybe the least disruptive style of play to begin with but the fact that he is going into a more solidified system I think is really good for him and again it is a shakeup from the past. I also think that the better fit structurally is going to just cater to his strengths. His ability to play off of other guys always set him apart to me. Obviously, his quote bag is sort of limited, if you sort of will, especially as he finishes less and less at the Cub. But what he’s really good at, the mid-range pull-ups, is so unstoppable because of his size and prowess. You couple that in with his overall efficiency and it just adds a very nicely fitting wrinkle or dimension to however the Rockets want to play on offense out of Shangon in the post through Aman handling traditional pick and roll with Fred Van Vleet. his ability to kind of complement and amplify those other maybe more core principles and actions I do think is going to be a better fit. Whereas you look at Brooklyn or Phoenix, the lack of system structure, point guard even, uh that is definitely not where I think KD is maximized. The usage uncertainty matters here. If you were expecting Kevin Durant to come into Houston and have a 30 plus% usage rate, you’re probably going to be disappointed. Um, yeah, he is really good, no-brainer, a Hall of Famer. He is 37 years old. What we have learned about guys at that stage is the trade-off between offense, defense becomes a lot more evident. There are obviously strides that I’m sure Houston is hoping its main young cornerstones have taken, but in terms of initiating and carrying that initial advantage creation, I don’t think that that is something that you can really lean on KD to do at least for the whole regular season into the postseason. and the fact that he is so great, the team is so young, he is going to be super well respected and listened to on this team. I just wonder about how much of the save us Jaylen mantra thing from last year is going to be mitigated or exacerbated depending on how the team decides to play. Because last year in the half court, even with Steven Adams grabbing like half of the misses for the team, it was just another handoff to Jaylen Green or Fred Van Vleet in a desperate attempt to hopefully get some kind of offense here. A lot of possessions would come down to Jaylen Green, please God, save us. And then he makes poor decisions and then he looks terrible and then Eay makes it even worse by benching him. And yeah, you can probably tell I really don’t think Jaylen Green was set up for success on this team. Obviously Kevin Durant is much better, but I don’t think the team is going to be maximized if that whole complex of oh god save us 6 seconds to go on the clock KD please that’s going to get old fast and that is why the focus area for the Rockets this year centers around the offensive halfcourt identity. What is going to be the bread and butter and who specifically is going to initiate stuff? It builds on the idea of the usage concern or conundrum with Kevin Durant. I think most people recognize he is optimized as a secondary facilitator, an offball creator, coming off of different actions, drawing attention that way and then assisting his team in that manner with his gravity. And the way I ended up landing kind of feels like the new age or new evolution of the Denver Nuggets just with better spacing from the perimeter, more versatility on both ends, depth in both of those things, and then a higher defensive floor propping up everything else. And let me show you what I mean. Fred Van Vleet pretty much Jamal Murray in a role sense although he has much deeper range and I would argue better on ball creation as the lead initiator. You can go ahead and talk about Fred Van Vleet’s physical limitations. That’s fair and very evident. But if you actually watch this guy play, I mean he’s a fantastic point guard. Very low overhead. Doesn’t overextend himself. doesn’t really turn the ball over and can actually create quite a bit. Although he’s not going to be Luca Donic, right, because of some of those physical limitations, but I like the onball Juice. And again, the way it was shooting in that Warrior series was unbelievable. I’m not saying that’s totally repeatable, but that is what he’s going to be guarded as. And then you think about the pick and roll coverages, if he can hit ahead passes, create four on threes for guys, etc. Amen Thompson operating on offense kind of like Christian Brown as an offball cutter if he is starting from outside of the ark or you can park him on the baseline just like Aaron Gordon where he lurks around for dump offs or offensive rebounds for putbacks. On defense you have the clear Christian Brown assignment. He is going to be taking the toughest defensive assignment in your probably one through threes. I put him in the archetype of Lou Dort, Alex Caruso, where they are actively trying to with you and turn you over actively as opposed to more of a Jada McDaniels or Herb Jones where they’re really long and lanky and they’re good at stifling you. They’re not like getting into you and like actually bodying you. that makes this different because Christian Brown for as good as he is as an onball defender, I don’t think he’s quite at that level. So, Amen taking the toughest assignments, being able to offer the physical tools to actively turn guys over and then convert those turnovers himself because he is faster, more athletic than you are, I think is just really, really notable. For example, you just think about if Alex Caruso was on the Denver Nuggets in place of Christian Brown, how that might end up looking a little bit differently in the turnover department. Dorian Finny Smith obviously in that Michael Porter Jr. mold. A little bit more consistent shooting overall in my opinion. Although the highs of MPJ, as everybody knows, are really, really high. the dude like almost single-handedly beat the Lakers by himself. What was that like two years ago? But again, the consistency is a bit alarming. And then of course, the versatility on defense and just the overall potency. I mean, it’s not even really close. MBJ notoriously gets a little bit spacey on that end of the floor. Kevin Durant has some more optionality as well on either end of the floor. Similar to Aman Thompson on offense, he can be Michael Porter Jr. hitting the spot ups. And I think it’s going to be the most noticeable in the event of these offensive rebounds and kickouts. I mean, the saying goes, what is one of the scariest things to see in pro basketball? It is a kick out off of an offensive rebound to a wideopen Kevin Durant sitting outside of the three-point arc because he’s going to hit the shot about 80 to 90% of the time. And what do you know, the Houston Rockets absolutely love getting their own misses. I think there’s also possibility of him cutting inside of space as well for these mid-range pull-ups. Thinking about the Shenon postups and that kind of stuff. He has a lot of potency to hit guys in those ways. And then on defense is going to be playing like Aaron Gordon taking the power forward position. Probably we’ll see if they want to experiment with him at the three pending the matchup. I do think it is notable though when they do play teams like Dallas or Denver, are you really gonna try and ride Kevin Durant guarding Anthony Davis for example? I might not do that. So then how well is he going to be able to stay in front of PJ Washington, Cooper Flag, that kind of stuff for example? The strength and stamina thing is a real thing. Not to mention the concern over fowls given the way that those guys play for certain teams. Albert Shenun, baby Joic is already a widely used label for him. The finishing around the basket has to become a lot lot better. But what I have liked so far in his tenure is his ability to sort of offset some of that through sheer physicality and getting himself to the free throw line. He moves like a sea lion in flip-flops and that makes it really unpredictable and hard to kind of stop. Foul drawing is kind of like an acquired skill that really only very like smart and confident sort of players can really get to. He also has proven his ability to offensively rebound as well, similar to the Jokic mold. Defense, I would still say, is a bit of a I wouldn’t say overall concern. He’s probably a net neutral. I haven’t looked at the actual numbers there, but I think about certain teams like Oklahoma City, let’s say, if they want to play five out, how quickly can he even cover a certain ground? And so, what is going to change here? Uh, I think that the offensive rebounding and second chance scoring is going to be even more lethal. I mentioned this with Kevin Durant, Dorian, Finey Smith. If they are able to gobble up as many offensive rebounds as they had in the past, they’re probably just going to be able to convert a lot more. And the conversions are going to be threes and not twos at a higher clip. So then stacking up your bigs with Clink Capella to again reinforce or double down on that kind of framework of pressure as well as a source of offense makes a lot of sense to me. I think that the slashing gravity with Aman Thompson and Kevin Durant kind of stretching you out and Aman Thompson being like a ball of potential energy trying to spring out. I think it’s just going to create more space and cleaner kind of floor space for Shenun to operate in the regions of the floor that he does as well as open up lanes to crash for those glorified offensive rebounds. And there’s just like a play that just comes to mind for me that I just don’t know why I just see it happening quite a bit is a Shenun post up on the block with his shoulder turned beckoning somebody and then just like the Nuggets he’ll make a fake move, dump it off to a cutting Amen who knows exactly when to do that as they’ve, you know, sort of practiced together and built that familiarity with each other and then in one motion Amen catches and then twists and then kicks it out to Kevin Durant knowing that the help, you know, is coming from his guy and then you just get like a knockdown three or something in like.9 seconds total or something insane. What is going to be the same though, the Rockets are still going to be really focused on winning in the margins in a style that I call junkyard ball in their sort of honor. It is the type of offense where you don’t have maybe a ton of skill or strategic potency in making these elaborate halfcourt schemes. You’re really leveraging size, defense, and athleticism to turn over the other teams, score in transition, get yourself to the free throw line by being super physical, getting offensive rebounds for easier second chance points because again, you’re huge and fast and athletic. That style of play to me is really a great sort of breeding ground for great teams. Because if we learned anything in this past playoffs, it’s what Mark Dagnold said after they won game seven of the finals that is probably going to resonate with me for the rest of my life. You know, one thing I learned is, you know, you don’t really, it’s hard to get to your ceiling as a team in the playoffs when you’re playing great teams over and over again. It’s really about how high your floor is. Um, and I thought that’s was the mark of our team. I mean, you have to really grind it out and it’s an endurance race. Um, and you have to just you have to be able to win in the mud. You have to be able to win ugly. You have to be able to gut it out. Um, and that’s what we did. You know, the team did an unbelievable job of that. When I hear terms like floors, it really just means a few different things, not very many. It’s defense and more controllable plays than jump shots or threes. You can get pretty good at getting yourself to the free throw line. You can hustle for offensive rebounds. You can really sit down and guard and try to turn over the other team. These are all sort of controllable margins that you can hunker down at. And what do you know? The two teams in the finals were some of the most handsy, physical, relentless, and deep defensive teams in the NBA. And they found themselves in the NBA finals. do think Brooks leaving is a single tier, but I really do think Eay is going to be championing this whole sort of defensive mantra stuff with his psychopathic military coaching style, which again necessary for youthful teams. But I don’t think this whole defensive tenacity and buyin and their defensive identity is going to be eroded whatsoever. I really think Eay is going to ensure that that doesn’t go anywhere. But most importantly too is the hunger piece. I think for the guys coming back, running it back that were on the team last year. So like almost all of them finishing the regular season as a two seed and then taking the Warriors, sure a veteran opponent to seven games, but losing in the first round only. That’s got to be pretty frustrating. I also want to reinforce the Kevin Durant legacy angle to all of this fork in the road moment. Stop with the super teams. help a younger upand cominging team that has a lot of the key ingredients to winning in a new modernized era where team egalitarianism is important. Defensive identity is nonnegotiable and we’ve already seen last year that he more than likely was and is the missing ingredient to take this team over the top. So, the parting question that I have that I believe will dictate the ceiling for the 2026 Rockets is how much is Eime Udoka willing to allow for development versus winning right now? This is something I was touting a ton last year, specifically around Reed Shepard. And wouldn’t you know it, he has to play a very, very significant role as backup ball handling is probably the only air quote hole of this entire roster. Now, last year, I really felt like EA was prioritizing winning as many games as possible with the guys he knew he was going to roll into the postseason with, and Reed Shepard finds himself unable to get off of the pine and develop any degree of experience. And so now that he is clearly going to be needed, I am just really really curious how much of a leash Eay allows Reed and also Amen to play through mistakes as the secondary backup facilitators or just lead initiators. Alman Thompson displayed a ton of onball juice as a play creator and finisher individually towards the end of that Golden State Warriors first round playoff series. And I think all of us could see with his pretty much unmatched athleticism in the NBA and you think about offensive rebounding, him and Zion might be the two fastest second bounce guys in the NBA. But as an overall package, I mean, it’s probably Amen and then Anthony Edwards and then Zion. I don’t know. We’ll see what kind of shape he’s in. But he’s borderline in his own kind of echelon of athleticism. So, the idea of him being a singular individual scoring force is not that surprising. We saw him be able to dribble, get himself into the short mid-range and make these kind of push shot floaters that again, he is just going to get off the ground faster than you and he’s going to get off the ground higher than you and you’re really not going to be able to stop it. So, that makes sense. But the actual ability to somewhat playmake in those sort of situations and leverage the threat or pressure of those shots to get dump passes and hit guys is something that frankly I did not expect to see. even the flashes that we did this early in his career. But it makes you very curious about how EA is going to treat it because if you start building Amen’s reps as an onball lead initiator, we’re talking about a decade or more of benefit and value. And so getting him those reps earlier is going to obviously accelerate and expedite that whole development process. I’m sure if you asked him what is the best case scenario for Ahmed Thompson, it is as your lead initiating guard as the most athletic player in the NBA who can at least carry enough scoring pressure that teams are going to have to overcommit to him once he’s in a certain region of the floor and then he can leverage that to engage the team and become a more wellrounded triple threat player. How much is Eime going to allow him to do that? Is he going to allow Reed Shepard the primary audition? And then how long is he going to allow him to sort of sink or swim with that is just going to be super super interesting because again the backup handling and lead initiating is basically the only hole in this roster at this time. So, I’d be curious if Reed does kind of struggle, which again, I don’t want to put on him. That was a conscious decision that Eimeme Udoka did not have to make last year by making him ride the bench and not be able to play whatsoever. I wonder if they ship him off to get some kind of a more seasoned veteran backup guard on the team if they really really do feel like their window is now, fast forward to February. All right, guys. Thank you so much for watching and until next time.

It’s unclear anyone expected the Houston Rockets to be this aggressive – and successful – in free agency. On paper things look great, but let’s put the new roster under the microscope…

0:00 – Welcome
0:56 – FA: Why and so what? // Dorian Finney-Smith
3:05 – Center City (Capela, Adams)
5:35 – Kevin Durant
10:35 – New Age Nuggets?
16:57 – 2025 Comparison
21:57 – Parting Question for 2026

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