Top 10 NBA Contenders for 2026: Jokic & Nuggets or KD & Rockets BIGGEST THREAT to OKC? | NerdSesh
Welcome everybody back into Nerd Sesh. As always, I’m Carson Brabber and alongside me is Logan Camden. And today we are going to rank our way too early top 10 NBA contenders for next season. The off season isn’t fully wrapped up. There’s still a couple of guys out there on the free agency market, but for the most part, these rosters are set in stone. So, why not take a look ahead and uh get a lay of the land and see who we think are the strongest contenders for next season. Before we get into your number 10 spot, Logan, is there anybody you want to shout out as an honorable mention, as a particularly painful cut from this list? I wouldn’t say painful cut because I don’t think they’re particularly close, but I really like what they’ve done in this off season and that’s the Atlanta Hawks. I think they have improved uh immensely and they’ve at least gotten themselves to the fringes uh of this conversation. And so they would be my first team in the off. And then I guess two dishonorable mentions would be the Philadelphia 76ers and the Los Angeles Lakers just because of my lack of faith in their ability to actually be here. For the Sixers, it’s because of Paul George’s really sudden regression, Joel Embiid’s inability to stay healthy, and some of his playoff concerns. It’s more about the ability to stay healthy. And then the Lakers, they got like three guys on the roster right now. four guys on the roster. So, you know, you might have Luca and LeBron, but I just I don’t really know what the rest of their roster is going to look like at this point. So, I couldn’t say with any confidence that they would be in this top 10, but I think Atlanta is probably my closest uh omission. That’s interesting. I love the Hawks. I do still have them. Yeah, probably in that like 12 range. I think that they are a top four team in the East, but the bar is obviously much lower there than it is in the West. and they’re still not in those true contender conversations for me, even though I think they’ve done a beautiful job this off season. I’ll get into my number 10. It is the Los Angeles Lakers, Logan. And this isn’t because I love what they’ve done. It’s because of the glaring flaws of everybody around them. Like, yeah, you could give a shout to the Hawks. The team that I really considered up against LA for this 10th spot is the Golden State Warriors. And I just find that I have a lot of the same frustrations with both teams where I look at the Dubs and it is important to note the offseason is not over. And if there’s any team that I’m still fingers crossed praying they make a move, it’s the Warriors because if they get Al Horford, I immediately feel better about this team and I probably do move them up into the 10 spot because I do like their core more than say the Lakers. I think it’s more complimentary. I absolutely love the big three that the Warriors do have. And they went 22 and five with Steph and Jimmy in the regular season. Then they won a playoff series and then obviously Steph gets hurt. They don’t get a fair shake at the Timberwolves. But even though they were impressive in the regular season, the roster around their big three is just like so so uninspiring. And that’s honestly a gentle way to put it. and they had glaring needs that were exposed even in Steph’s absence that like clearly would have been major problems in a deep playoff run even if he were healthy and did present some real issues in the Rocket series making it really difficult for them to get out of that one and seven like just complete lack of supplementary ball handling lack of consistent three-point shooting and they desperately need a playable legitimate big because they really don’t have one in a playoff setting we were getting big time Quinton post minutes they were still going to lose some then Lon leaves the team so he’s not even on the roster anymore and up to this point they have addressed absolutely zero of those needs so even though I think a core of Steph Jimmy Dre you have an amazing defensive anchor in Dre you have one of the all-time great offensive engines in Steph who still down the stretch last 30 games of the season gave you 26 and a half points per game on over 65% true shooting I mean he was incredible he was in superstar form and then Jimmy does so much of the great connective winning stuff on both sides of the ball. I love that. But I can’t overlook that outside of those three, there are zero actual playoff players on this entire roster. Like you’re talking about the Lakers having three, four guys. The Lakers at least have five guys, man. Like the Lakers, remarkably still have a better roster in terms of depth than the Warriors. And listen, there are things that I really like that Pods does. At the end of the day, he is so erratic. He shot 36% from the field in the playoffs. Moses Moody shot 35% from the field in the playoffs. Buddy Heield was better, but he’s still Buddy. You still know that he’s wildly inconsistent. And then you’re going to like Ge Santos and Quinton Post and that’s all the dudes they have under contract. So if they make like even solid moves on the margin, if it’s getting a Horford, if it’s getting a Malcolm Brog, then I mean truly the bar is not high. but they’ve just let so many of those quality value ads that they could have made slip by go to other teams and I just can’t have them in the top 10 right now. I did still legitimately consider it because I think the Lakers are so flawed as well, but the roster around the big three is a joke. It’s brutal. That’s really interesting to me, Carson. I mean, I have the Warriors on my list. They’re in my number nine spot. I definitely preferred them to to the Lakers at this point. It’s kind of fascinating to me that you have the Lakers over the Warriors, man. Like, I don’t I guess I It’s weird me being critical of the Lakers not having any real depth when that is the exact same concern of Golden State at this point. I guess there’s just such a large gap for me between my faith in the Warriors core and the Lakers core. You know, Luca had a down year last year. LeBron is only continuing to get older and older and he seems like he is uncertain about his future with Los Angeles and so those things are certainly factors to me. But I really do love the Warriors big three no matter how old they are. Like I know Steph, Jimmy, and Dre are a I mean match made in heaven when we’re talking about big threes. Jimmy is like the ideal complimentary guy that mends in, you know, is the glue between Draymond and Steph as the bridge basically between your offensive anchor and your defensive anchor. And quite frankly, I just don’t know how much worse the Warriors can be even if they get bargain bin guys to fill out the rest of this roster from where they were last season. You make some great points like and I agree with all of them. Like I I think the concerns with uh with BP pods, the concerns with Buddy Heield, of course, they’re very real. Losing Kavan Looney, it’s massive. But I just kind of have this level and faith that the Warriors are going to fill out the rest of this roster. They’re going to get back to being a competitive and real basketball team. And I just have the utmost faith in Steph being the offensive number one and Dre being the defensive anchor and Jimmy doing all of the little things. like they were so wildly successful in the second half of this season when they were all together and Steph had this renaissance and then he just got hurt in the playoffs. Like I just can’t wipe that away from my memory how great they were when they were all together and the Lakers were great in the second half of the season and I don’t want to take anything away from them either when they were healthy. But I just know what I’m getting with this big three and so don’t get me wrong, that is the reason that you have red flags about this team. That is the reason why this team can’t be higher than number nine on my contenders list. I’m not out here making the argument that the Warriors are one of my favorite contenders coming into next season. But I just feel like they’ve got the more solid foundation. They’ve got the big three that I believe in. And I think that they’ve already got the hard part out of the way is is I guess what I’m getting at. They’ve they’ve got their guys and I I just trust the Warriors to build out the rest of this roster. I don’t fault you for not having them here. Mhm. But it really does shock me that you have the Lakers above them. I just couldn’t do that right now. If they do it, if they do fill out this roster with the right sort of guys, if they do to any extent address ball handling, bench shooting, the big rotation, then yeah, slot them into that 10 spot because I do agree. I love the big three. But it’s absurd right now. And it’s nothing to do with Steph or Jimmy or Dre. I am about as high as you can be on all of those guys, but I’ve seen some great graphics. Shout out Automatic NBA who tweets a bunch of awesome, really informative statistical stuff, and I believe as a Warriors fan, so a lot of it is also Warriors related. And it’s just so funny because the Warriors literally grade as like an F in rim finishing, F in shot creation, F in like everything offensively around Steph Curry. And that feels absolutely correct when you watch them play basketball. And Jimmy absolutely helped there, but he did not solve the problem of, okay, we get into a playoff series. You can zone up on Steph. You can play a zone in which you also have his man attached to him at whole times. You’re passing him off individually within the zone and you are leaving shooters wide open and shooting theoretically should be the like only thing that this offense around him is even decent at because you know you’re lacking ball handling and badly lacking athleticism and badly lacking shot creation. And these dudes can’t even make wideopen shots. They can’t even take the wideopen shot sometimes. I mean truly, you can’t overstate how bad the Warriors offense around Steph Curry and at times Jimmy Butler was able to step up. But outside of those two, it’s just so ugly. So, I don’t have a problem with you having them here. I debated it, too. I debated the Warriors all the way up in two number nine because I think the ceiling is higher. I think if they show competence from this point forward, they do have a foundation I like more than the Lakers just because I think the fit is so much better. They have three guys who I believe in so much, but they haven’t done it yet. I’m not going to give them the credit for having done something that they haven’t and they haven’t really shown many indications that they are going to do. Although there’s Horford rumors, so hopefully that happens and then we can move them up to the 10th spot. But for now, isn’t that funny? Isn’t Isn’t that kind of funny to say though? That’s where we’re at. That’s where we’re at, dude. Hey, look look. I love how Horford is a great basketball player at this stage in his career, but I think it’s really funny that that’s the that’s the big move we’re waiting on the Warriors to make. Man, I will just say we could have easily stopped this list at eight. If we’re talking about true contenders, I don’t view anybody who was going to be in the nine or 10 spot as a contender. Like, we’re calling it top 10 contenders. I don’t think the Lakers are a contender. I don’t think the Warriors are a contender. I don’t think the Hawks, if you were to include them, would be an actual contender right now. I do like what the Lakers have just a little bit more than the Warriors. I think there’s some major flaws here, but I do really like them getting DeAndre Aiden. I think that that was a no-brainer, and we’ve had our criticisms of Aton in the past, and deservedly so. But you have to understand that’s judging him as a 30 plus million player. Now for the Lakers post buyout, he is an $8 million a year player at the most glaring position of need and he is still talented and I do think he’ll thrive offensively in LA as a play finisher with two elite playmakers alongside him. Like no big in the world is going to look better offensively if you are that play finishing archetype than you are playing alongside Luca and LeBron. And it’s not just that Aton is big and athletic and fluid and can get above the rim as a vertical spacer, which he can do as a roller. What is his most valuable offensive asset, is his touch. This is a guy who shoots close to 60% inside the paint outside the restricted area year after year, which is like approaching Jokic territory. It’s in Zubots territory. Like he is undoubtedly one of the five best bigs when it comes to that touch shot making. He’s also a very good mid-range shooter. So, that’s a really valuable asset for him as a play finisher off the roll. We know how important that touch shot making is. And then he’ll do good work on the offensive glass. Like, you just have to consider the value here, the standard for who the Lakers center options were. Like, he’s a massive upgrade over what they had and I think he’ll legitimately be a very good offensive player for them. The concerns are defensive because we’ve seen him repeatedly fade in and out on that side of the ball. We’ve seen the lapses in focus and effort and motor is always going to be the biggest question with eight. This is a guy who was the number one overall pick and set outright that his NBA goal was to get to his second contract. So that doesn’t inspire a ton of faith in his desire to be a winner, especially when you pair that with how he actually has followed it up in terms of all these effort lapses and frustrations that we have with him. And if you look at the last three years, he averages 0.8 blocks per game. He holds opposing players just 3% below their average field goal percentage at the rim. So, he has been remarkably, despite his size and athletic profile, one of the weakest rim protectors in basketball when you’re talking about a starting center. That’s not good. So, you can talk yourself into, okay, but what about 2021 in the playoffs when he was fully motivated, busting his ass on the glass, really defending at a pretty high level because he was fully engaged. Theoretically, that Aiden is still in there. I’m just not optimistic. I think that you’re probably going to get a frustrating below average defensive level from him. But regardless, I’ll just keep saying it. The value, the riskreward is worth it because of the options they had because of the offensive payoff that they should get. So, I do like the Aiden move just because we hadn’t had a chance to talk about that yet. But big picture for LA, when their big three, and I’m using that term kind of lightly, I’m including Austin Reeves in that, shared the floor this past year. They had a 120.5 offensive rating, which is great, and a 121.7 defensive rating. So despite the really good offensive results, their defense was that abysmal that they were actually getting outscored with their big three on the floor. And another problem is in the playoffs, the Lakers offense actually wasn’t very good. They only posted a 109 offensive rating against a really good Timber Rules defense that was able to play a very switchheavy style and force and bait them into a ton of ISO ball where they could stagnate at times where they weren’t creating a lot of easy offense. And then Austin Reeves just like crumbled against that level of physicality and athleticism and ball pressure and raised some real questions about how much does his offensive value translate to a playoff setting. Meanwhile, he’s getting picked on relentlessly defensively as Luca is getting picked on relentlessly defensively. So, you’ve got two major defensive liabilities in your back court who you feel like you have to play big minutes just because you lack the depth to go elsewhere. That was super problematic. And they really haven’t done anything to address that. In fact, they lost Dorian Finny Smith who was a really good defender who was a 40% three-point shooter. So, in terms of like having that Reeves replacement when he’s getting targeted over and over again on the defensive end and he’s not bringing enough offensive value to supplement and make up for that, like they didn’t have anybody to turn to last year and they still don’t have anybody to turn to. Like, you’re not going to Jake Laravia for those minutes. So, that really concerns me. I think that adding a good play finishing big like Aton does help grease the wheels of their offense and get them some more opportunities for some easy stuff around the rim in the paint. Especially if you’re seeing traditional coverages like versus drop, I think he can be killer with Luca in the two-man game. But again, if you’re facing a switch heavy or a switch everything scheme, that’s a way potentially to limit eight and two because he’s not a good mismatch attacker. He’s not a good postcore. Yes, he has his touch, but he just plays with such little physicality. He never bullies a mismatch if he gets one. And so then can you do the same thing where you stagnate the offense some? You limit Luca and LeBron Morris as playmakers. You limit the easy offense they can get. That’s a concern for LA, too. So, I do think their offense is going to be really good, but can it offset major defensive issues that are still here with Lucan Reeves playing big minutes with Ruie and LeBron on the wings who just, you know, can’t fix this defense, especially if Aton is going to be apathetic and mediocre there. And then, can it overcome this poor depth, especially on the wings, which I think is so important in today’s NBA and especially for this team. No, I don’t think the offense can outweigh that enough for them to truly contend. So, like I said, it’s hard for me to see them making a deep run in this West. I just think there’s too many flaws that can be exposed and they don’t have those answers down the roster. We’ve talked ad nauseium about the importance of lineup versatility and depth and being able to mix and match and go with different options and the Lakers hands are just totally tied in that respect, which is a problem. But they do have LeBron and Luca and really this is going to hinge on what version of Aon do they get. And I’m not super optimistic there, but it’s just enough, man. Like I said, the bar is not high to be the number 10 team on my list right now. I can buy into the talent with them just enough, but they still have major issues that need to be solved. Yeah, this isn’t enough for me. Uh you already spelled it out with the defense. I just think this is going to be a bottom 10 to bottom five defense in basketball. They’ve got Do they have a plus defender in the starting five, Carson? LeBron when he really cares. Exactly. And it’s like LeBron is going to be giving you what 30 40% maybe during the regular season if that. So it’s like and you look down the roster, Vando, who is their best defender, can’t play because he’s that bad offensively. We’ll see what they get out of Maxi Cleba. I think that they have an uncomfortable amount of stock in Maxi Clebba in Jake Laavia. So I agree. I mean, I don’t love the Lakers at all, but I think I’ve explained why I still can stomach it enough to have them here. I can’t. Um I think LeBron’s continuing to get older and older. I think to expect him to turn back the clock or give you anything during the regular season is asking too much of him. I think Reeves and Luca might be one of the worst defensive back courts in basketball. DeAndre Aiden’s a bad defender at the five. So, it’s like that’s why I’m going with the Warriors over the Lakers. The Lakers may have more players under contract and better players under contract. Sure, I can give you that one. But it’s like I know the Warriors aren’t going to be one of the worst defenses in basketball. It’s like when I got Dre and Jimmy, I can at least pencil them in for that. And if I got Steph Curry on offense, it’s like, okay, we’re going to be an average offense. Well, I’ll take the team with the average to above average offense, and hopefully they can get better there, but with the competent and bordering on really great defense. Again, I think a lot of this is going to be contingent on how they build out the rest of this roster and how great they can be on both sides. But I know they’re not going to be an abysmal defense. I know the Lakers are going to be and that’s ultimately why they couldn’t make my list. I do get that. I think that I have concerns. I mean, abysmal defensively is maybe strong, but bad is not strong. Like, I think, yeah, what you said, bottom 10 defense, that’s reasonable to expect. What I do want to emphasize is I do think this offense is going to be really potent. I do think it should be a good bit better than last year just because the element of that rolling play finishing big was so so obviously lacking from their offense and again I think they could still run into some issues against super switching defenses but they didn’t even have the option. I mean Jackson Hayes wasn’t playable for them in the playoffs. So to have a guy who with his flaws could still give you 18 and 10 on 62% true shooting and it’s certainly not going to be the most impactful production with those numbers, but I mean again the bar was in hell for this team. So we know Ruie can shoot the [ __ ] out of it on the wings. Reeves could play better in a playoff run. I think there is a significant offensive gap between them and the Warriors because everything around Steph is so bad. But I also do think that there’s a significant defensive gap in the Warriors favor. So like I said, I consider the Warriors above them. I hope the Warriors do the little things that it takes to surpass them and uh we’ll see where that ends up when the off seasonason is officially over. But you have the Warriors at number nine, Logan. So, who is in your 10 spot? I got the Orlando Magic in my 10 spot. Orlando Magic. Orlando Magic. You know, Carson, I think Orlando has a major opportunity to climb up this list as the season goes and goes along. I think I’m buying low on Orlando in my 10 spot right now. Now, the reason they’re on my list is very similar to the reason that the Golden State Warriors are on my list. If you are a really good to great defense, I don’t have to do a ton of mental gymnastics into why I can buy you as a good competitive basketball team. The Orlando Magic, if they’ve been one thing under Jamal Mosley, they’ve been a really good defense. They’ve always been committed on that end. They’ve always been a really great rebounding team. And that’s one of the reasons I’m really high in the baseline and the foundation of this Magic team is that I don’t have to worry about the effort. I don’t have to worry about the defense. Even when Paulo and Frons were hurt last year, this team was still really trying hard and winning on that end. Granted, they were scoring 70 to 80 points a game, but you know, that’s going to happen when you’re missing your two best wings. So, I’m getting a really good defensive foundation and rebounding foundation with this team. But the reason that I think they could climb higher and potentially end up I think closer to seven or six on this list as the year goes along is how great Paulo and Fron are going to be. Um Paulo we all see the star ceiling 6’10 an athletic strong monster with an elite jump shooting ceiling like we’ve seen him do in back-to-back playoffs now turn into a really great pull-up jump shooter. I’m really worried if Fron can find his three ball because he’s really a a great all-around wing. That’s really the one thing that he’s missing. But obviously the big addition and why this team is on here is because of Desmond Bane and what he brings in terms of offensive punch and spacing the floor. 39% three-point shooter, 40% catch and shooter. They have desperately needed a player like this. And Bane is also going to bring some supplemental value in terms of pick and roll, ball handling, playmaking, little stuff like that where he can at least alleviate the pressure off of a Paulo and a Fron. I also want to mention last year it wasn’t just Paulo and Frons that were out. Jaylen Suggs missed a lot of time, too. So, you’re also bringing back one of the best point of attack guard defenders in basketball and a good three-point shooter. I won’t say anything else. You know, Suggs is if he gives me 35 plus percent, I’m going to be happy with him from behind the arc. So, I really like Orlando’s foundation. Their red flag and why they can’t be higher to me is the offense. Desmond Bane is certainly way way better than Contavius Caldwell Pope, but KCP was supposed to be the guy that came in here and helped bring this offense up a notch. Again, I think Desmond is way better as an offensive player. He’s going to make this offense a lot better, but just how great can they become? And so that’s why I think Orlando has an opportunity more so than anybody else on this list to jump three or four spots because if Paulo meaningfully takes that kind of leap that we saw from him at the beginning of last year where he is just relentlessly attacking downhill in getting to the cup in uh drawing a ton of free throws. If Fron can find a shot, if Desmond Bane can meaningfully, you know, kick this offense up a notch, this could be easily a top three team in the East. Actually, I think even Wow, that’s sad. I have three East teams in my top 10. So, right now, they are a top three team in the East for me right now. Maybe they could end up being number two, I guess, is the ceiling for them. So, I’m still a little bit worried about the offense, but I’m very, very confident in the defense as I’m talking my way through this. Why do I have them below the Golden State Warriors? I think I’m going to call an audible here, and I think I’m going to bump Golden State has an opportunity to No, I’m not going to. I’m I’m going to give This is the Steph. I’m going to give the Steph Tax credit. I’m going to keep the Warriors at nine, but I think Orlando’s got a very, very real opportunity to jump up and be the second best team in the East this year and maybe crack my top five. I think that’s the absolute ceiling for this team. So, I think 10 is conservative for Orlando right now. But, I really like what they’ve done. I really like the foundation of this team. And I think uh if Paulo takes that star leap, if Bane comes in here and makes a real difference, I think Orlando could be a real deal contender and not one of these lingering teams at the bottom of this list. Well, Logan, now that you’ve come out as a conservative, let me come out as the progressive because I’ve got the Magic one spot higher at number nine. But I do honestly have them in a tier with the Lakers and the Warriors, and I kind of considered mixing these teams in whatever order. There is a lot that I really like about Orlando. I absolutely love the Desmond Bay addition. And I think that he is the exact perfect archetype for this team, which was the worst three-point shooting team in basketball, one of the worst offenses in basketball because their spacing was so brutal. But they were last in three-point percentage, last in three-pointers made, super slow, just really tough offense to watch, last in pace, 27th in offensive rating. immediately. Now, you inject a guy who is one of the best three-point shooters in basketball and is a guy who can give you eight three-point attempts a game, make 40% of them, who can be incredibly effective off movement, who can be so great playing off the ball alongside your two big downhill wings and fronds and Paulo, but then also can bring you some more legitimate ball handling and creation, which they desperately needed. He can leverage his elite shooting threat into playmaking opportunities. He’s averaged five and a half assists per game over the last two years. He’s a guy who is a really effective transition scorer. So, he’s just the perfect compliment to those two guys at the two guard spot. And then, as you mentioned, you get Jaylen Suggs back and hopefully he shoots it more at the level that he did in 2024 when he took a big leap as a three-point shooter and then the percentages came back down this year. Now, the degree of difficulty was also higher because he was being asked to do more creation. But I do just think it’s important to note that like if you look at the last three years, well, first of all, he came into the league with major shooting issues. Then as a sophomore, under 33% in his third year, almost 40%, then back down to 31% this year. So, I actually think that Suggs’s shooting is just a big swing factor for this team in general, and we’ll kind of see those numbers probably stabilize this year and get a sense of where he’s really at as a shooter. But regardless, really nice player, especially when the shot is falling with everything he does defensively and with his effort. And then late in the year, Orlando should also get Mo Vagner back, who is a really good offensive backup big for them. And then we do know that the depth is pretty good in Orlando. The defense should be awesome. They were the number two defense in basketball last year. And Fron and Paulo did a lot of impressive stuff in the playoffs. Now, the efficiency is not going to look pretty for either one of them. They’re both like 51 52% true shooting. But they combined for 55 points per game. And when you consider, first of all, that both of them had last year disrupted by oblique injuries. But more importantly, that the offensive situation was so abysmal, there was no comparison for it in the playoff field. Like, they didn’t even have Mo Vagner. They didn’t even have Jaylen Suggs. Obviously, they didn’t have Desmond Bane. It was an absolute joke. the lack of creation and shooting around them. I thought that what they were able to pull off was impressive and commendable in that playoff series. At the same time, they do both still have pretty major things that they need to improve upon, which isn’t surprising with how young they are, but now we’re talking about Orlando in these conversations. Where do they rank among contenders? And that’s where you have to look at this stuff and nitpick it and be critical about where they can stand to improve. For Paulo, a lot of it does have to do with the shot selection. He took 6 and a half two-pointers per game from outside of 8 feet this past year. He shot 40.7% on them. So, I can give him something of a pass because the spacing is so bad. And sometimes you see that it’s just difficult for him to get all the way downhill because the paint can be so so packed. It can be so crowded. There are also spots where he has a mismatch. He has an opportunity. he doesn’t fully impose himself and get all the way downhill when he should because I mean he’s an absolute freight train. He gets to the line at a ridiculous rate when he does fully commit to getting downhill. That’s the biggest thing for him because yeah the jump shooting you mentioned there are some really hot streaks but it’s not reliable for him as an efficient offensive player which is what he’s aspiring to be and hasn’t been up to this point. And then for Fron, I mean, it is the three-point shot because we’re now looking at two years in which he is 28% from deep. That’s consistent across the regular season, the playoffs. It’s actually somehow gotten even a little bit worse. So, that has to improve for him as a pull-up shooter, as a shooter off the catch, being just a more functional offball player in this offense. And those are really significant things that need to improve for this team to become an actual contender. And so that’s where I do think it’s important to keep in context because I’m seeing some people get really really high on Orlando and I like a lot of what they’ve done and I see the vision with Paulo and Fron’s long term, but I’m not expecting like a miraculous major leap this year. I think you should expect marginal improvement. That’s the reasonable expectation. And if we’re expecting marginal improvement, well, last year, if you’re being like generous, I would say either one of these two was like a fringe top 30 player at best. And so, somebody does have to take a leap for them to get into like those true contending conversations. And also, I love the Desmond Bane signing. It doesn’t single-handedly solve the glaring lack of skill around Fronzen Paulo that has been such an issue. But they did make a nice pick up with Taius Jones who I think if you’re the Phoenix Suns and you were expecting him to be the answer to all your problems, okay, you’re delusional. But to replace the Cory Joseph playoff minutes, you know, that’s a meaningful upgrade. And then I also like the Jace Richardson pick to address some of that backcourt skill. Really, really good shooter, nice complimentary player, but it is a lot to ask of him in year one to come in and fill a reasonably significant role for this team. So, you have some of those offensive questions still, but the defense is going to be awesome. And I think with Bane, with hopefully Suggs having a decent shooting campaign, and with a little improvement from Fron and Paulo, that offense can go from abysmal, bottom of the barrel, atrocious, to just mediocre. And if it’s a mediocre offense with this defense, I think that they justify being in this nine spot. Yeah, I think it’s about the right range. How high do you think they could climb for you? That’s an interesting question. I could see them going up to yeah, six. I think that right now I have more faith in the teams above them, but it’s not an insurmountable gap for sure. I really like the top five and then after that you get into some flawed teams for sure. I tend to agree. One of those flawed teams is my team in my number eight spot. That’s the New York Knicks. And the Knicks are here for a couple of reasons. one, the East is just so comically weak with the battered Boston Celtics and Indiana them taking a bit of a tumble here. But New York does have something that I can at least bank on, and that is their offense. And I still have more confidence in their offense than I do Orlando. And that’s the big difference, right? All the teams, if you’re noticing a theme in this tier, uh, New York, Golden State, Orlando, and the Lakers, one-sided, where they’re at least like I can bank on them being great on one side or really good on one side, but they’re leaving a lot to be desired on the other end. The Knicks are one of those teams where there is no reality, unless they, you know, clone prime Scotty Pippen and Hakee and trot them out there, that this is going to be a really good defense. This is probably going to be a bottom 10 defense in the NBA next season as much as they try. And so, and you may ask, why are they on the list? Well, I do know that this is going to be an elite offense. I mean, I think I can just pencil that in very easily. Two 25 point per game scorers last season and Jaylen Brunson and Carl Anthony Towns, two special offensive players. I mean, Brunson, in my opinion, I know that a lot of people have gotten strangely low on Brunson after the playoffs. I’ve heard some crazy Brunson takes, but he’s still to me one of the best offensive engines in basketball. We’re talking about giving you a really high floor. Brunson is that guy. So methodical, so great at getting into the teeth of the defense and finding his own shot. Can sometimes get a little bit of that tunnel vision, but I give him a pass. He’s great. Again, maybe and for the Knicks offense to really reach their absolute apex, I think he needs to tap into some of that offball stuff, which maybe Mike Brown can help do. but he’s going to give you a really high baseline. And with all the issues that I have about Carl Anthony Towns and his attitude and his effort in his defense, he is a great offensive player when when he gets going, can just go off in bunches, spraying from behind the arc, from deep over guys, can go down on the block and put in some work. Like Carl Anthony Towns is a great offensive player. And so I know what I’m getting offensively with the Knicks. None of their guys are going anywhere. We’re still bringing back Anobi and Bridges and you’ve got Josh Hart. like their foundation is really solid. They can’t be any higher because they have a massive red flag and that’s that they’re not going to be a good defense and everyone above them. Everyone above them on this list is a much better two-way team. But I could see the Knicks coming out of the East and that’s why they got to be on this list. Like I think the Cavs would need to have some really bad injury luck and it would have to be catastrophic. But it’s like I didn’t see the Knicks going to the conference finals this year and they have an elite enough offense where I could see them outlasting Orlando in their defense where you know if they got matched up in the semi-finals to go to the conference finals. The Knicks offense just never stops going and so they end up getting the the final notch. They have a big red flag but they also have an elite elite offense that I think is probably going to be top five in basketball next year. So I think there is a ceiling that I see with the Knicks. I couldn’t see them winning the title next season. That would blow my that would knock my socks off. That would blow me away. But I respect the Knicks. I think Mike Brown can make this offense a little bit better, you know, with some some little tweaks with with little actions that he can run. That’s what he did with the Kings, but there still are some core roster limitations that I think the Knicks are going to have trouble overcoming. So, I’ve got a whopping one Eastern Conference team in my top seven contenders. How about that, Logan? You and me both. my friend because I also have the Knicks in the eighth spot. Maybe saying that they’re going to be a bottom 10 defense is a little bit too strong. Like that to me is probably a little bit too aggressive just because they were 13th in defensive rating this regular season and they just do like well enough in the effort categories and what they can get on the wings that they can put together an okay defense. But it’s when you get to those certain high stakes playoff matchups against really good, meticulate, smart, complete offenses that they just have a couple of glaring weak points that teams can attack relentlessly and they can’t hide them. And yet they want to have their two best players on the floor obviously, especially because their depth is not very good. And that’s where you run into the Brunson cat dilemma that they ran into so many times in this playoff run. With those two on the floor together over this entire season, the Knicks had a 118 defensive rating. And so that does put a hard ceiling on what you can do. I don’t believe that you can win a title when you have that sort of a major defensive issue that is at your core and is predicated upon your two best players. Now, I do think the Knicks can squeeze a little more juice out of their offense this year. This is why I do like Mike Brown as a hireer for them. I think he’s a creative offensive coach who particularly loves his motion principles. And so that’s where you wonder, okay, can they get Brunson involved more offball where he’s been very efficient over the years? And we know that he has that skill set as an offball mover and shooter, but just hasn’t been utilized that way for New York, especially if you look at this past playoff run. And that’s where the offense could get a little bit stagnant. Can they get more out of him there? Can they just in general inject more motion, more player movement, more ball movement into this offense to potentially just create some defensive lapses and get some easy opportunities? Hopefully, I think Mike Brown could do that. And maybe you use Cat Moore as a screener where he’s been really quite effective. I mean, last two years, Carl Anthony Towns averages 1.3 points per roll. That’s a fantastic number. And yet, they really didn’t do much at all with the Brunson twoman game as the season progressed. So, can you get more out of Cat as that screener? Maybe do you use him a little bit more as a passing hub? These are all things I could see Mike Brown doing. They could make the Knicks offense a little bit better. They were a really good regular season offense, but maybe didn’t quite play up to their playoff potential, but again, the defense was the big issue there. And I do think that they have some offensive issues around Brunson and Cat. For example, Muel Bridges, the guy just lives exclusively on jump shots. and maybe you’re able to take a little bit of creation burden off of him because a lot of his jump shots in these playoffs were coming off the bounce, but that’s really all that he’s getting in terms of a shot diet. The guy took under one free throw per game and so overall he just wasn’t efficient under 52% true shooting in the playoffs. Then you have the Josh Hart issue who is still struggling to find a halfcourt offensive role as this 6’4 6’5 guy who is not a reliable outside shooter who is not a legitimate ball handler for you in the half court. It just gets very clunky and weird with him in the playoffs. And then I still don’t really like the depth here. Like I thought that Yabu was a good ad for them, but he’s not an actual playoff center. So, they’re still very much relying on Mitch staying healthy, which is always a question mark. They add Jordan Clarkson, which is fine as a flyer on the minimum, but like he’s not somebody I trust to play at all in the playoffs just with his wild inefficiencies offensively and then major defensive issues. So, that guard rotation is still shaky. I just look at the Knicks and I think there’s some major issues here that yes, even though they made it to the Eastern Conference Finals, were badly exposed in that series and they really didn’t address them. I just don’t see a lot of paths for improvement here for this team that needed to improve in some key areas. And as we always say, if you aren’t getting better in today’s NBA, you’re getting worse. So that’s why even off of a conference finals run, I have them down here at number eight. Hopefully they get more out of Deuce McBride. Maybe they go with Deuce in the starting lineup. That I could see being an improvement, but even that is just going to be an improvement on the margins. And uh I see some teams with higher ceilings here. I see some teams here that don’t have the same sort of core limitations on one side of the ball or some of the questions about some of these key supporting pieces that New York does. So ultimately, we are aligned on them. Who do you have at number seven, Logan? I have a team that coming into this I had at number five and I think to be clear I think all of these teams between five and seven are all very very close to me. So you can take your pick. I have the Dallas Mavericks here at number seven. The reason uh that I’ve bumped them now down from five to seven is really just because of the news that Anthony Davis had another operation. And I’m just continuing to be concerned about the Mavericks ability to stay healthy. And I hate that being the crutch that I’m going to lean on here with Dallas, but you know, Kyrie had a major offseason operation. AD, you know, got hurt right as he made his debut with Dallas last season. He’s now injured again in the off seasonason. And so it’s like his eyeball. Yeah, his eyeball hurts. Crazy cuz, you know, I mean, he’s dealt with, you know, body this, body that. Now it’s his eye. So, I’m just more nervous about Dallas than I was coming into the off season because their two best players are just, to say it simply, they’re getting older and they’re injuryprone. So, that’s probably my biggest concern with Dallas. I think this is going to be a really great defense next year. I think this team is chock full of one, two great defensive players and defensive anchors and Anthony Davis and Cooper Flag. I mean, those guys are Flag is gonna be an awesome defensive player from the second he enters the NBA, but around them, they’ve got a ton of athletes and a ton of rebounding and a ton of size. If it’s Gafford, if it’s Lively, if it’s PJ Washington, right, if it’s Naji Marshall, like they’ve got guys, they’re going to be able to do their jobs. And so, this team is jumbosized. They’re athletic and they’re going to be super physical. My two red flags, like I mentioned at the top, it’s the injuries, it’s the age of their two stars, but then it’s their offense and just how great can this offense be? Kyrie is not an ideal number one perimeter creator at this stage in his career. He is way more suited in that number two role. I think that was showcased in the Maverick’s finals run where he was Luca’s co-star and he did his job perfectly during that playoff run. He picked up the slack whenever he needed it with Luca and he defended his ass off. Anthony Davis is a less than ideal number two option offensively, right? With his inconsistencies and his jump shot in spacing concerns and his fascination with playing the four spot when I think the Maverick’s offense would be way way better if they went with him at the five where I think you’ve got a ton more space to operate in. I think Flag is a way more natural number four. I think AD is a way more natural five in the modern NBA. But that comes with its strengths and its weaknesses, right? you lose some spacing and stuff offensively, but you get that athleticism and that rim protection and that rebounding if you have him alongside a five. I do like a lot of the moves they made in this off season. Obviously lucking into Cooper Flag, but more so signing D’Angelo Russell in Kyrie Irving’s absence. You know, I’m not a huge D’Angelo Russell guy, but to get him on this kind of contract, I think it’s a really good bargain and value ad. And you’re not asking him to carry your offense. They’re just asking him to come in here and, you know, give you a little bit of a punch. And so, you know, I don’t think they’re taking a major major risk by getting him. I also like them picking up Ryan Nemhard. I think he’s going to be really good in this league, too. He’s an undersized guard. You know, I’m not expecting him to come in here and light the world on fire, but I think he’s going to be a good role player for this team. So, my big concern is their offense and their ability to stay healthy, but there’s not a big gap. I want to be clear about that. between Dallas at number seven and honestly the teams I have again my five through seven spots. So I think there’s my top four teams and then there’s a gap with the next three. But I do consider the Mavericks to be a real deal contender and they’re probably my first darkhorse team I would consider to win the championship next year where I could see it happening. It’s like Doctor Strange, you know, the reality’s got to fully line up. It’s It’s not a great probability a chance there for Dallas, but there is a chance and I see the title window for the Mavericks. Logan, you and I continue to share our hive mind brain because we are on Neuralink. I have the Mavs at number seven as well. Darkhorse is the word. Like a lot has to go right for the Mavs to win it all, but their ceiling to me is a little bit higher than the Knicks. I think they would scare me a little bit more if I’m Oklahoma City, for example, than the Knicks, just because I think Dallas is going to be absolutely ridiculous defensively. Like, they should absolutely be a top three defense in the league. I totally agree with you. They should be going more with AD at the five and Cooper Flag at the four than they probably will with these two centers and Gaffron Lively still on their roster. But that’s because of the offense. Defensively, flag at the three, AD at the four. One of those centers like we are talking about a level of length, size, rim protection, rebounding that no other team in the league is getting from their front court. And it’s really not even all that close. They should also be a top two rebounding team in basketball. It should be them and Houston just absolutely obliterating teams on the glass. And I think in totality, their front court depth is the best in the NBA. So they can just bully teams to a ridiculous degree with that size, with that physicality, with that defense. And then they do have a [ __ ] ton of flexibility on the wings, with the front court. Like, yeah, they can go with either center, Gaford or Lively, but they can also go AD at the five, with Flag at the four, with Naji at the three, with Clay at the two, with Kyrie running point. I love that lineup. You can get PJ Washington in there at the three, with Flag at the four, and 80 at the five. You can get Kayla Martin minutes and Max Christie minutes and there’s just a [ __ ] ton of depth there of quality two-way basketball players, but I have the same concerns as you do. And my concerns are, yes, health, specifically with Kyrie because AD, his eyeball hurts. That’s weird. That’s not a long-term thing for me. You do just have questions about AD’s availability because he is AD and that’s fair. But Kyrie is a guard in his 30s coming off of an ACL tear, and he’s not going to be back until midway through next season, potentially late into next season. So, even though I love the ceiling, that does bring the floor for the Mavs lower than probably anybody else we’ve talked about. Maybe not the Lakers, but maybe the Lakers because like if Kyrie doesn’t ever get fully right, this is not a team that’s going to win a playoff series because as much as I love Cooper Flag, the one area of his game that probably still needs the most development and refinement is him as that on ball creator and lead playmaker. He’s not ready for that. I like D’Angelo Russell a lot as that bargain addition. He’s not going to be the guy who carries you through the playoffs in that role. So, that’s a concern. And then even at full strength, even with Kyrie, I have real questions about the halfcourt offense, the burden on him, not being an elite playmaker, not being somebody who gets downhill a lot, who collapses the defense a lot, being a guy who does tend to live on tough shotmaking, and in my opinion, has really become like the ideal offensive number two, but now you’re asking him to be that lead perimeter creator. That’s tough, especially if the spacing is more questionable with 80 at the four and a center alongside him and then you don’t have the volume three-point shooting. Like there’s just enough questions there for me to keep the Mavs down at number seven, which is probably still higher than a lot of people would have them. I don’t know. Maybe I don’t have a great sense of it, but I think we’re probably both people who buy into the Mavs vision and see what they can be. But like I said, there’s just a lot of swing factors and questions there that I can’t put them higher than this. Yeah, I can’t. And and they’ve got a chance, you know. I mean, if like you said, if Kyrie comes back, if DLO looks really good, if Flag maybe is further along in his offensive development, but that’s why we said Dark Horse. I think that’s the the perfect word for them. It’s also very possible that Kyrie misses 55 60 games and this is a team that only wins, you know, 43 44 games and then you’re fighting an uphill battle in terms of seating throughout the entire playoffs. That’s why Cooper Flag is amazing. I think he’ll be a top 50 player as a rookie. I think he gives them an opportunity to contend that didn’t previously exist after they made the Luca trade. But still, a lot has to go right. That big three though in that front court depth, I love it. I mean, I love it on paper. We’ll just see if paper turns into reality here. Who do you have at number six? Logan, I debated for a while before we started the show on who should be five and who should be six. So, five, six, and seven are all very close to me, but five, and six are even closer to one another. I’ve got the Los Angeles Clippers here in my number six spot. I really like what the Clippers have done this off seasonason, man. I really do. Uh getting Brook Lopez off the bench, resigning James Harden, uh Powell for John Collins, I’m not as big a fan of, but I think Collins brings them a look off this bench that they didn’t have. An athletic wing that they can turn to, that they can run some pick and roll with, they can space the floor a little bit. So, I understand it. And I just like the other bench guys that they have. Bogey, uh Nick Batum still coming back. And that’s a big difference to me with the Clippers and with all these teams above all the other teams we’ve talked about is like not only do I like this starting lineup, I really like the bench and I really like the depth. And that’s something that I can basically say is a blanket statement for every team across the board the rest of the way that we’re going to talk about. I like a lot of the guys on their roster and I think they really meaningfully improved this off season and the Clippers are going to be a really good two-way team, especially at full strength with a healthy Kawhai, with a healthy James Harden. It’s like as much disdain as I have for James Harden, he’s still a really good offensive player at this point in his career. Is he going to fluctuate and have, you know, peaks and valleys? Yes. He’s gonna have some really high highs. He’s probably going to have some 40 pieces and some 30 burgers and he’s going to look really good. He’s going to have some games where he’s subbed 10 points. That’s the James Harden experience at this point in his career, but he’s still an extremely valuable commodity because he’s such a great decision maker in floor general at this stage in his career. Just a great decision maker and passer and he can run high volume pick and roll. That’s the thing is that he may not be at the peak of his powers athletically or skill-wise, but he’s still brilliant and he can take on the burden of being that lead ball handler and creator every single game. It’s a skill set that’s really rare to have in this league that you you don’t entrust everybody in the league with. And that’s why you pay James Harden all that money to bring him back. And so I still think Harden provides an extremely valuable role on this team. I think Avita Zubots provides a really valuable role in this team with what he can do defensively as an anchor and as a rebounder. Uh, you know, he has his flaws defending in space. He’s not a real legitimate floor spacer on offense, but he’s a bruiser. He’s a tank on the inside that you can’t take away his offensive game. He’s elite, you talked about it earlier, from that intermediate floater in mid-range area, uh, with little baby hooks, with just finishes off the roll. And then healthy Kawawaii is still a monster. You know, you ranked him really high in our top 25 players, Carson. And I’d say after that, he probably climbed even higher. Healthy Kawawaii is still a problem. He doesn’t get downhill to the rim as much as he used to, and that’s his probably biggest flaw at this point in his career. But he’s still a monster mid-range shooter, and he just gets to his spots. He’s so strong at this point in his career as an old guy. And so I take those three guys who are all borderline allstar players when they are fully healthy. Kawi, I would argue, is still a borderline all NBA player when he’s fully healthy. He’s just never going to meet the minimum games requirement. And then surrounded around them, I’ve got athletes, I’ve got shooters, and I’ve got really good role players. And uh yeah, I really like a lot of the additions that they made uh in the offseason. So the Clippers didn’t climb a mountain. They didn’t they didn’t get way way better. They didn’t make a Rockets or a Nuggets type leap to me in this off season, but the Clippers meaningfully got better and they had a really strong foundation last season. So, yeah, I I’ve got the Clippers here, but I could hear an argument for LA up to my five spot. Above that, I’d probably have an argument with you, but I think this is the right range for them, and I think they’re a really serious team. Well, Logan, drum roll, please. I have the Clippers at number six. I do think my interpretation of the Norman Pal for John Collins trade and a lot of the reporting has been also that it seems like they’re going to land Bradley Beal. In which case, I think that deal makes a whole lot of sense for them because you add a near 40% three-point shooting big in Collins, who’s a versatile scorer, who’s a good offensive rebounder, who last time we saw him with a really high level pick and roll ball handler, Trey Young in Atlanta. He was quite efficient and productive as a role man. Now he’ll be in a more similar situation with an elite pick and roll playmaker like James Harden. He didn’t have that obviously in Utah. He’s a really nice offensive player and he brings some size and he brings front court depth which I think was something of a need for this Clippers team. And then if you bring in Beal in addition to that and to be clear I’m talking about post buyout. So they’d be playing him some small fraction of his current contract which is obviously the biggest abomination in the NBA. But it seems like the Suns are going to buy him out and the Clippers would be the front runner to add him. If you get Bradley Beal on that super discounted price, you’re adding a ball handler, which is something they need in addition to Harden, who is still quite a good offensive player, like Bradley Beal was a disaster for the Suns for a number of reasons. Because he’s such a bad defensive player and they desperately needed plus defenders because so much of what he does offensively is redundant with KD and with Devin Booker. None of these guys pressure the rim. None of them are high volume three-point shooters. none of them are elite playmakers and so he just wasn’t able to bring any sort of additive value really. But you drop him into a differenti situation into a scaledown role on a way smaller contract and like he still gave you 17 and four on 60% true shooting last year. He’s still a good offensive player. So that to me is where letting Powell go makes sense because you’re really getting the best of both worlds. You’re bringing a different kind of offensive guard, but an offensive guard nonetheless, and you’re able to improve in terms of adding an offensive big. They also, for their big depth, add Brook Lopez, who I think is a really good backup option, which they were desperately lacking. It was either like Drew Eubanks or it was Ben Simmons at the five. Brook Lopez has obviously aged quite a bit and might be the slowest player in the NBA, but as a true drop big, as a pick and popper, playing 15 minutes a night, he’s one of the better backup bigs in basketball. And he’s backing up a top 40 player in Zoo, who I think cemented himself as one of the best rebounders, one of the best interior defenders, one of the best interior finishers, one of the most consistent players in basketball this year. And they maintain all their guard and wing depth with Bogey and Chris Dawn and Derrick Jones Jr. here and Nick Batum and they still have to figure out, okay, what is the balance of two-way production that we’re able to get from that last starting spot like because with Don and Derrick Jones Jr., they both had some offensive issues in the playoffs, especially Chris Dunn, but they’ve got options there. Nick Batum is still a baller and like we’ve seen the ceiling with this team. Last 20 games of the regular season, they went 17 and three. They had the number one offensive rating, the number two defensive rating, and the number one net rating in basketball. They have the potential to be a dominant two-way team because I mean, they have such a nice all-around roster. It really hinges on what level do you get from Kawawaii and James Harden. And down the stretch of the regular season, Kawhai was starting to look like himself again. He was giving you like a super efficient 25 points per game. And James Harden was playing his best basketball in years. his last 30 games of the regular season, he was 256 and N9 on 60% true shooting, balling out of control, playing at an allNBA level. So, if you get AllNBA Harden, AllNBA Kawaii with the pieces around them, this team can win the title. That’s just a lot to ask because there’s the everlooming threat of Kawhai’s body breaking down. And I want to be clear, some people got really excited about Kawhai’s incredible performance against the Nuggets in game two and they wanted to proclaim him a guy who was in best in the world conversations and he’s not. Realistically, when he’s at his best, he’s a top 15 player these days, but he can be that when he’s healthy. Harden can have these incredibly hot streaks as a score and as a pull-up shooter. And if all that clicks, the Clippers could win the title. But similarly to what we were talking about with the Mavs, just a little bit less so like the floor for this Clippers team is higher than Dallas, but it’s the same idea of yes, that ceiling is there, but a lot has to go right with the playoff inconsistencies we’ve seen from Harden with the fact that he just doesn’t finish at the rim effectively anymore and that he can at times sort of fade away in those hyper physical playoff environments. Like it’s a lot to ask of four great rounds especially of awesome basketball from Harden and Kawawaii, but the ceiling is there and the ceiling is enough for me to have them at six because I mean even with Kawawaii missing most of the year, this is a team that won 50 games last year and lost in seven to the Nuggets who were a really awesome team who pushed the eventual champs to seven. So I think that they deserve this spot. I think they do too. And like you said, dude, I mean, even if Kawhai is injured again in the regular season this year, as long as you crash the party, I think you have an opportunity to to do some real damage once you get there. And that’s where Harden is so important and the collective defense is so important because that was their floor the entire regular season. Like Kawhai just came in at the end and started doing his thing and they need him for the playoffs. But Harden, you can have your playoff criticisms. Really good regular season offensive engine and this team was an elite regular season defense. So that does give them a pretty high floor. James Harden would be MVP of the league if we did a podcast every day and I [ __ ] on him uh during the show. You did inspire a 50 piece. You inspired a few hard master classes this year. I really did, man. So, Clippers fans, I’m willing to accept bribes. If you want me to do it, I can light that fire under James in the biggest game. He did not deliver. So, uh you won the war for this year at least. But there is a chance for the Clippers this next season. I would not count them out. I think they have a again they’re in my dark horse tier I would say but it’s legit. Let’s see if we can keep in lock step here. Carson number five. I’ve got the Minnesota Timberwolves. Uh I’m a very big T-Wolves guy. Not a lot has changed for the Minnesota Timberwolves from last season into next. They do have a few questions, but they were able to retain Julius Randall on a solid contract. They were able to resign Nas Reed on what I thought was a good deal. They do lose Nquille Alexander Walker, which does sting, but I would argue with what you saw out of Jaylen Clark last season and Terrence Shannon Jr. in the playoffs, they have got two rockolid, athletic, ready wings that are going to be able to contribute uh immediately for them next season to replace him. So, you’re not going to be able to replace a guy like Nikquila Alexander Walker. He’s a 40% three-point shooter. He’s a good supplemental ball handler. a really good point of attack defender. Um, so you’re not just going to be able to immediately get that value back, but I think you can recreate it moneyball style in the aggregate with Clark and Terrence Shannon Jr. And then the other big question I would say personnel-wise is just does Mike Connley continue on this downward trajectory that he was on? You know, Connley still really good decision maker, still a 40% three-point shooter. I mean, anytime Mike Connley took a catch and shoot jumper, it felt like he was just going to knock it down. He’s a great shooter. Yeah. But the athletic cop isn’t there anymore. Shot 30% from the field in the playoffs. Don’t remember that. He was draining threes though, man, off the catch. 25% inside the arc will do it. Yeah. So, that’s one of the big questions about Minnesota next season. But what’s not a question is how great this defense is going to be, how good they are going to be at rebounding the basketball. like this team just has a special special ability to swallow up teams and just play more physical basketball with them than really anybody else can. I’d say that you know the most physical teams in the league I would say Oklahoma City, Houston, and Minnesota. And it’s just a special weapon in the playoffs when you can match up with any team defensively, when you can protect the hell out of the rim, when you can defend at the point of the attack, and when you can rebound the hell out of the basketball. And so they can do that. They’ve got really great depth down the roster. You know, again, I mentioned the loss of NAB, but you still have Nas Reed. You’ve still got Dante Devenenzo off the bench. You’ve got Clark Terrence Shannon Jr. Uh I wonder if Dillingham’s going to be able to contribute this year. That’s to be determined. Really, my X factor for the Minnesota Timberwolves is just how great my baby boy Anthony Edwards is going to be next year. We’ve seen him get better and better year after year becoming an elite pullup uh three-point shooter. Um being an elite downhill presence. He improved last year as a playmaker, but I still think that’s another area where he can really um meaningfully improve as just a unselfish decision maker and playmaker. And it’s infuriating sometimes because I am such a big Anthony Edwards fan. how one game I mean he can just be lights out, great decision, great decision, collapsing the defense, kicking out and then the next game he’s not doing any of that. So the consistency of his playmaking I think is a big swing factor for the ceiling of Anthony Edwards. But the bigger thing is something that you touched on repeatedly throughout the playoffs, Carson, and it’s his ability to kill you in the mid-range. Because something I realized and I had to grow with throughout the regular season and the playoffs as one of Anthony Edward’s biggest fans is recognizing his flaws. I have heart eyes for Anthony Edwards. I wear these roset tinted goggles and we see him and so it’s really hard for me to see his flaws sometimes, but when I compare him to like the best player, one of the best players in the league last season, I would say the second best Shay Gilis Alexander, SGA doesn’t have those same problems and they’re not the exact same player, right? because they’re different kind of athletes and is way more explosive. SGA is like a slinky, like a rubber band. And so they’re different in that type. But the reason that SGA is so consistently effective and you can’t stop him is because he is such an elite intermediate and mid-range shot maker. And so Ant’s got the rim pressure, he’s got the rim finishing, he’s got the pull-up shooting and the three-point shooting. Like all that’s there. Can he put the pieces together of the playmaking, of the mid-range scoring to really ascend to tier one, A1 superstar, best player in the world conversations. That’s to be determined. I think he’s going to get better. I’m going to hold my reservations as to how great he’s going to be next season, but that to me is what’s going to determine the ceiling of this team on if this team can go on that championship kind of run. I think the team’s there, Carson. I think the team is there. And don’t get me wrong, when we look into a hypothetical matchup against Oklahoma City, some other things are gonna have to go right. But I think the biggest thing that has to get checked is can Anthony Edwards be the best player in the world in a series like that, and that’s what’s going to determine if they can make a real finals run. But I really like Minnesota, and uh I’m confident in them next year. Yeah, I have the Timber Rules at number five as well. So clearly we have the definitive list here. These are objectively the top 10 contenders for next year except we disagree on the Warriors and the Lakers, just barely on my end at least. The Timberls are basically just running it back minus Nquil Alexander Walker. But there’s a lot to like here. I mean, they’re an elite two-way team. You mentioned it. They’ve got phenomenal size. They’ve got phenomenal physicality. And their superpower is really their lineup versatility. It is their depth. It is their ability to close with Nas Reed at the five when they want to, to go double big when they want to, to close with Dante Devincenzo when they want to. And now we’ll see Nikquil Alexander Walker was a part of that. But maybe it is Terren Shan Jr. who’s ready. Maybe it is Jaylen Clark who’s ready because I do like both of those guys. They’ve got volume three-point shooting. They’ve got great defensive personnel. They just check a lot of boxes as a team. I do have one big concern for them, but it’s kind of my only concern at least in relation to like their standing here when it comes to them winning a title. I do agree. I think Ant would have to be a little bit more consistent. I think he would have to probably ascend more like that top five level instead of fringe top 10 level. And I think that’s going to come with the playmaking, the intermediate scoring, that sort of nuance as a scorer. and even the pull up three-point shot being a little more consistent than it was in the playoffs cuz regular season he was out of this world playoffs he was a little bit more up and down and if you’ve got rose tinted goggles for him I don’t know what you have for Julius Randle some sort sort of like zombie apocalypse projection goggles but he would be another guy who I look at when it comes to their title ceiling and say okay he has to find a way to be more productive against OKC which I think is a really really really tough matchup for him but that’s not quite the bar that we’re at yet and and I just trust their foundation a good bit more than the Clippers or the Maz. If you want to talk ceilings, okay, then they could be in the same range. But when it comes to floor, I think Minnesota’s on a different level because my concern is the point guard situation. But in spite of that, in spite of Mike Connley basically being as bad as he could have been, like literally incapable of scoring inside the arc, six points per game on 30% from the field in the playoffs, they still made the Western Conference Finals and they got destroyed in the Western Conference Finals, but they made it all the same. I think the Timberwolves are a very solid, very dependable team to at least be in the second round of the playoffs to at least win north of 50 games. And I’m so confident in that bar that I do have them here in my five spot. Should we keep it going, Logan? Who’s in the four spot? On the count of three. On the count of three. I don’t know. I think we’re going to disagree. Three. Cleveland Cavaliers. Yep. What the hell? No shot. Bingo. This graphic is going to be sick. It’s going to be Do I even need to make two, man? Maybe not. We’ve been hit with that before. Why even make the two graphics? God, there’s something so great about sharing a brain with you, but sometimes I just wish we could disagree more so we could rumble and tumble. We’re just picking all the little mud wrestling. Yeah. Well, that’s kind of a different vibe than I was thinking. I’m open to it if you are. No shot. Yeah, I was convinced this was the one because I was looking through my list. I was like, you know, we may this is going to be our rift. The Cavs are here. basically because I still just do have some really marginal concerns about their defense and the overall fit of this team. I feel like I really know what I’m getting with the I know what I’m getting obviously with the number one team on our list and then the next two teams I’m really really confident in their identity and the additions that they made. you know, there weren’t a ton of tweaks, and Cleveland doesn’t have a ton of tweaks either. They are my favorite in the Eastern Conference. I think unequivocally they have to be. Uh, if you’ve got the Knicks or the Magic or somebody, hit my line. Uh, I would love to talk to your dealer and see what kind of deals he’s got going on. Um, because I think it’s preposterous that anybody but Cleveland would be number one. But I just really want to see Cleveland stay healthy, Carson. I think that a lot of people have gotten really low on this team because of their injuries. And granted, I think I have probably been a little bit of a victim of that, too. But you’ve got to applaud and and just stand kind of in awe at what Kenny Atinson was able to do with this team last year. I don’t want the sour taste of the playoffs to wipe out all the good that they did during the regular season. This team got meaningfully, meaningfully better. Their offensive process was so much better. Darius Garland bounced back in a big way and wasn’t battered and injured in the regular season and he showed you what he could look like at full strength. I thought that Evan Mobley took a real real leap offensively. Jared Allen was consistent. Donovan Mitchell was great. So, another thing they improved a lot on the wings acquiring a guy like DeAndre Hunter. Um, and and the big move for them this offseason was Lonzo Ball. If Lonzo can stay healthy, I think that’s a really big ad. That’s also a really big if on if Lonzo Ball can stay healthy. But if he can, great decision maker, good point of attack defender, good shooter. Again, these are all attributes that Lonzo had last time he was fully healthy. I’m not really looking at what he did last season in the limited sample size, but theoretical Lonzo is a really good upgrade from a guy like Isaac Aoro. So, I really like their wing depth and the guys that they can slot in alongside all their guys. I love their lineup versatility. you know, if they want to go Mobly at the five, if you want to go just Jared Allen at the five, you just want to go one guard with Garland, one guard with Mitchell, they’ve got tremendous versatility. They’re a great two-way basketball team. And the crazy thing is is that Cleveland could be higher on this list when we redo this at mid-season or the end of the season on if Evan Mobley continues to get better, if Darius Garland gets meaningfully better. These are still very young basketball players that could get better. or Moy is the guy that I really expect to take a leap if we’re going to chalk up to somebody, but I just feel like people have gotten low on them when it’s just the playoffs that they’re looking at. I mean, to me, Cleveland is almost as sure of a commodity that you could bet on going into this next season, you know, is any team that’s that’s above them. I feel like I really know what I’m getting with Cleveland. The only question to me is, can the guys stay healthy in the playoffs? that’s what bit them the last two years. And is the fit going to be seamless? Because I still feel like there is a point in the regular season or in the playoffs next year where I could be arguing, all right, maybe we look off Jared Allen. Maybe we go Mobly fulltime at the five because that’s the best look. But we’ve been saying that for four years now. So I don’t want to beat that dead horse. But I really do believe in Cleveland. I’m surprised you don’t have them higher, though. It’s really close for me between two and four. I do think that my teams that I have in the two and three spot did enough this off seasonason to surpass them, but it is really close. I definitely hear an argument for the Cavs up to number two. And I think that they’re great. I think that they are a clear favorite in the East and I am a Cavs believer. I think that there’s a lot of hate directed towards them that is like based on this idea that oh, they just fail over and over again and oh, it doesn’t matter what they do in the regular season. We know the Cavs are frauds. And not just that, we know that every team that is ever led by Donovan Mitchell until the end of time is fraudulent. And that just doesn’t make sense to me because this Cavs team this past year was so different than the previous Cavs team of this era. Like, it’s not like they had had a great regular season beforehand. They won 48 games two years ago. They won 51 games the year before that. Like, they never were this heavyweight. And Garland got so much better this past year. and Mobly got so much better this past year and their depth got significantly better and their coach was a significant upgrade. So like all these things changed and to then try to distill it down after this 64 win season, historic offense, number one offense in basketball, top 20 net rating in NBA history in the regular season and say, “Oh, they still lost in the second round.” Overlooking that they had major injury issues like they had multiple key guys miss a game. Garland, Mobly, and DeAndre Hunter. I mean, Garland missed obviously a good bit of time and then was a shell of himself when he came back and Donovan Mitchell was banged up by the end. And they lost to the team that went seven in the NBA finals. Like, I just think there’s a lot of context that goes under discussed when it comes to the Cavs and the criticism they do take. But I do think that they’re phenomenal. I think they just have more talent than anybody else in the East. I think they have more firepower with the best offensive back court easily in the conference. ridiculous what you were getting from both Mitchell and Garland as creators this regular season with the level of shooting they have around them which is so superb. This was arguably the best three-point shooting team in the league in the regular season with the variety of looks they can give you in the front court. They’re just so damn good offensively and then you mentioned the Lonzo move fully healthy it’s a home run. Now, I have major questions about if Lonzo can be healthy for the entirety of a season in a deep playoff run, but if they do get that version of him, then that could move them up higher than this on my list. I think he can be really valuable for them. Like, could close over a DeAndre Hunter, could close over a Darius Garland, over a Max Strus. Like, he can just fill a lot of different roles because he can be like that big wing defender. He can be that secondary ball handler. He can be that effective catch and shooter, that connective playmaker, just can plug a number of holes for you as a really nice role player when he is right. So, they’ve added another option there because I do really like Hunter as a wing for them who has that ability to score for himself off the bounce, who has that elite shooting off the catch, who has good size, and I really like Max Strus as just a lethal shooting weapon who brings some additional ball handling and playmaking. like they have their core four, but they also have a lot of good depth pieces alongside those guys. So, I think they’re a clear front runner in the East. When it comes to the top three teams, though, I do still think like there are a couple questions here that concern me. They have the issue of, okay, what do we do with Darius Garland defensively in a playoff run? like are we just going to eventually come up against an offense that is too good and is going to relentlessly exploit him? I also think they need him obviously to be better offensively and hopefully he gets fully healthy off this foot thing that has turned into like a big deal and he’s going to miss four months from now apparently. So that’s a concern as well because we saw obviously 2024 he was not nearly the player he was last year and I think that health was a component in that. So that is kind of an all-around concern, but the issues of that small defensive back court and then Jared Allen I think just has to be better. I thought he really struggled in the playoffs. So for now I’ll keep them here, but with healthy Lonzo with more moy growth, which I think is reasonable to expect because he’s so young and he got so much better this past year and really impressed in the playoffs. Like I thought that he did his job. They probably just could have given him more touches, but he was still shooting it really well off the catch. If he just grows even more as a shooter and as a creator offensively, this is the defensive player of the year, mind you. Like those sort of improvements which are on the table could bring them to win the title right now. I think Houston and Denver just probably make OKC a little bit more uncomfortable. And I think part of that is probably still some of the questions I have about what level defensively Cleveland can reach in the playoffs because offensively I think they’re in that top tier. It is uh defensively if Allen is going to struggle to guard in space and if Garland is going to get attacked over and over again. They they can mix and match there. They can. But nevertheless, those are two of their best players who you have some questions about in the playoffs. So I love the Cavs. I’m going to keep them at number four for now though. I ain’t got sound logic. Let’s see if we can keep pitching the perfect game at number three. I’ve got the Houston Rockets. Carson, how about you? We’re hot, Logan. We’re red hot. All right. All right. It’s not the perfect game, though. I mean, we started off, we let up a couple hits in the first, but now we’ve got seven perfect innings going since then. So, it’s a special performance. We’re cooking. We’re cooking. I really love what the Rockets did this offseason. And if you would ask me two players I would have wanted them to move off of in the offseason uh and improve, it would be uh Jaylen Green and Dylan Brooks. Tada. Boom. You get off both of those guys and you add Kevin Durant. KD is not a cure all for their offensive issues, but he is still an elite offensive player and would fit anywhere he went. And that’s why I thought the Kevin Durant sweep stakes were such a fascinating thought exercise because no matter who his suitor was going to be, no matter, you know, who was going to put the shoe on KD’s foot, it was going to be a perfect fit. And Houston is an elite defense with an elite group of rebounding. And I can’t emphasize elite enough. They may be the best rebounding team in basketball, especially with the supplemental edition of Clint Capella. Now, drop the May. Drop the May. I mean, the Mavs could take that title, but this past year, there’s no question the Rockets held the title. No doubt. And I mean, you just think about, you conceptualize some of these lineups that they can trot out. If it’s with Senon, if it’s with Adams, if it’s with Capella, if it’s with Jabari Smith Jr., Amen Thompson, like they just have such a surplus of size and athleticism. No matter what lineup they go with, they’re going to have great size. They’re going to have great athletes. They’re going to be a great defense, and they’re going to be dominant rebounding the ball. See, the only questions I have with this team are how much does Kevin Durant meaningfully make this offense better? Personally, I think he makes them way better because Van Vleet, the pressures off of him as much to be a creator. He can now facilitate even more and that’s a better role for him. Amen Thompson has another guy that he can feed. But to me, the real ceiling is not solely predicated on KD, but it also is with Amen Thompson. How much better does Amen Thompson get as a floor spacer and as a scorer and as an, you know, a shooter in the uh intermediate and mid-range area? How much better does Sen Goon get as a floor spacer and as a reliable scorer? Like these guys are also both very very young and I think have pretty high ceilings. I’m higher on a men’s long-term ceiling than I am Son, but both of them could realistically get better and improve. But more importantly, like your best scorer and best offensive player, you you’re not counting on a guy like Jaylen Green to produce for you every single night. And I’m not high on Jaylen Green whatsoever. It’s now KD. It’s just a different level of faith you got in here with a guy like him where he’s going to fit in off ball, but he’s also going to serve buckets for you on ball. KD’s not a perfect offensive player at this point in his career, right? He’s not an elite athlete anymore. He’s not going to get all the way downhill. They don’t need him to do that. They need him to serve buckets and to fit in and do his job. And I’m really excited. Uh, and I’m praying to the basketball gods that KD can stay healthy and we can see him in a meaningful playoff run with this team because I think it’s a match made in heaven for both of these teams. For KD and for this Rockets team, uh, for both groups that I I think it’s just a perfect fit. KD is going to be able to play meaningful basketball. the Rockets get their offensive savior and the Rockets are a real deal contender to me. Like that’s why they’re number three. I could see this team wholeheartedly coming out the West. Yeah, I totally agree. They’re very close to being in my number two spot and I’ve gone back and forth on that. I do land with them at number three as well. And they’ve just done everything right this off seasonason. They add Kevin Durant, which was an absolute home run, but they also add DFS, which was a home run. They re-up the right guys. They even bring back Clint Capella, I guess, because why not? Why not have another center? Let’s give them the triple big look. I want to see ShenGun at the three, Adams at the four, and Clint at the five. They can do it. I just think they nailed this off seasonason. I think they’ve got a [ __ ] ton of talent, and they have managed to build upon their identity in a way that I really like. And specifically, KD just is going to fit in so seamlessly defensively. He’ll be a positive contributor for them with his length, with his size, with his secondary rim protection, with his defensive rebounding, but obviously it’s offensively where like he is going to change everything. Like think about this. The Rockets were a 20th percentile half court offense last year, but they were still 12th in offensive rating because they were that much better on the offensive glass than everybody else. They’re generating that many second chances that they didn’t have to be conventionally efficient to still actually put forth a solid to good offense. But we did see the issues that came from just their lack of half court creation, their lack of shooting in the playoffs. That’s what held them back from winning a series. Now you had a guy who’s 27 6 and4 on 64% true shooting. Most efficient high volume isolation score in basketball this year. Super efficient pick and roll score. complete offball scorer. That’s Kevin Durant. And once you add him into the mix, I think the Rockets should be a top 10 offense. While they’re maintaining a top three kind of defense, while they are probably the best rebounding team in basketball, while they are physically and athletically dominant, and they have great depth, they’re just going to kill you in all of those areas every single night, which means they don’t have to be an elite half court offense to be a major title threat. And it means that the ceiling they can reach because their floor is so high with the defense, rebounding, athleticism, physicality, etc. that like their utmost potential to me is even greater than Denver’s who I do have above them. I’m more confident in Denver, but what Houston can be if you get the best version of Amen and Shangon is something even greater. I’m just not confident enough in those leaps for this year to put them above Denver right now. It is really close, but I do still think even though KD is such a great offensive ad, like you said, he doesn’t fix everything. And I think that lack of elite pick and roll playmaking, that lack of elite play finishing around the rim is still a limitation of this Houston offense. And those are the two roles that theoretically a man could be that elite pick and roll playmaker. Shenun could be that play finishing big, but play finishing is really where he’s struggled. He’s able to get himself a decent shot out of the post. It’s just he hasn’t been very effective as a role man. And he has struggled to finish at the rim. He has struggled on those touch shots. He has struggled to knock down free throws. We’ve seen no progression from him as a mid-range three-point shooter. So, Shangun is very good, but there’s such a hard efficiency ceiling with him when he is not simply better at putting the ball in the basket in all those different areas. I’m more of an Amen guy. I always have been significantly more so. I do think he’s going to be really scary this year. I think you saw it as that playoff series went along. His ability to just force his way downhill and deliver some incredible finishes and be more opportunistic in transition. like he can impose himself downhill in the playoffs in a way that is really scary and will get easier now that he has better shooting alongside him with KD with a DFS. But the jumper is still going to be a process with him. I’m not expecting him to be a average jump shooter even this next year. I thought he made significant progress in year two, but there’s still a lot of progress to be made and that’s probably just going to be a slow upwards trajectory for him. So, I still have enough questions about his creation, his offensive effectiveness in a really difficult halfcourt playoff offensive environment against a great defense to say I will lean Denver here. But I can see Houston bludgeoning you being the best defense in basketball outside of Oklahoma City. And then if you do get really good amen and if you do get takeover KD and if the shooting is actually pretty good, which it can be with this new roster, yeah, absolutely they can win the title. I mean, they are a major major title threat. This top four to me is where there’s a delineation, and I view all these teams as major title threats. Houston is stamped in that tier. Definitely. I you just don’t have those same kind of offensive concerns with Denver, and that’s why they’re in my number two spot. And all I’d say is that I mean, Denver went to seven games with the NBA champion last season. Granted, they had some down games, but I mean, with major roster construction flaws, like MPJ and Jamal being inconsistent and not what they needed to be, with really lackluster depth in surrounding shooting and bench play. And now you deal MPJ for a guy that can do way more, way more just on the basketball court, is way more versatile than MPJ offensively, defensively. You bring in a guy like Jonas Valenunis who reportedly wants to go to the Euro League, but I’m really hoping that Denver puts a strangle hold on him with that contract and convinces him to go win a championship this year with Denver because he is an ideal guy for that backup big spot. They reacquire Bruce Brown to run their bench unit. It’s like again, this team went seven games with a dominant NBA team and a dominant NBA champ. And I just think they got way, way, way better. Like, they’ve got the best player in the world. They’ve got a guy that works really well alongside him. And Jamal Murray is a really damn good number two. Jamal is probably my X factor if I had to point one out for this team in their championship hopes is how close can he be to finals run Jamal Murray. How close can he get to that 25 point per game, seven assists per game mark and how efficiently can he do it? I love the improvements they made. Uh I thought Christian Brown took a meaningful leap last season starting alongside Joic. He’s a really good role player for this team. Aaron Gordon has become a really good shooter and is just such a phenomenal asset fitting alongside in this team. Cam Johnson is going to fit like a glove. They’ve really upgraded the bench in a big way. Don Holmes is going to be healthy this year and hopefully can contribute just like Denver got so damn close last year and they’ve improved by a ton in this off season. Denver was my biggest winner of this off season. Uh shout out to the Ben Wallace GM unit down there. Uh, but Denver, uh, is far and away number two to me. I I’m glad that you mentioned that with Houston, Carson. I think that if a men in Son pop, they could leapfrog Denver to me. But I think Denver’s a good placeholder right here. And they’re they’re close to OKC, man. They’re close to OKC. So, Denver is not far and away number two for me. Like I said, it’s close between two and four, but Denver is number two. And I love what they’ve done this off seasonason. I think they’ve just absolutely crushed it. On paper, I would say this is my favorite offense in basketball going into next year. I think it’s them and then the Cavs. Those would be my top two, but they have the greatest offensive player ever in terms of peak. So, that’s certainly a start. And I think they’ve put a really good formula to execute around him. Like if you look at this past year in the regular season, their starting five had a 125 offensive rating. Like that sort of cutting around him, the twoman game with Jamal. MPJ playing at a reasonable level. 125 offensive rating. They were a dominant net team. They were crushing teams. Now you replace MPJ with Cam Johnson who is better, who is also an elite shooter with great size and won’t shoot 39% from the field in the playoffs like MPJ did while he was also struggling everywhere else. And I give MBJ a pass for the shooting because of the AC joint sprain and props to him for playing through that. But you also have to understand MPJ again is going to generally be a far more glaring negative with the motor in focus and at times the defense compared to Cam Johnson who’s just solid in all those categories and has significantly better passing field with MPJ really had none of. And also Cam Johnson actually can create for himself in spots and can be a tertiary ball handler type for you. he can just do more and he does everything that MPJ did that was great that made him a really good fit alongside Joic when MPJ was shooting at his peak level. Cam Johnson is going to bring that and a fair bit more. So, I just think the combination of cutting with Gordon and Christian Brown, but also the shooting with Cam Johnson with Aaron Gordon’s improvements, it’s a really, really, really elite offense on paper. That’s the starting five, which again was already a dominant unit in the regular season last year. And now they’re significantly upgrading at the MPJ spot, but also by getting off MPJ’s contract for a much cheaper player in Cam Johnson, they can also add Bruce Brown Jr. and Tim Hardaway Jr. and maybe Yonis Valenunis to the bench. We’ll see if Valenunis actually ends up playing for Denver. Obviously, there’s the talk of him going to play in Greece right now. That is all still very much up in the air. I’m going to presume for now that Valenunis is going to be a Denver Nugget and that is such a significant upgrade for the depth. Having a legitimate backup center, having a legitimate highquality shooter off the bench in THJ, having a do it all sort of Swiss Army knife guard wing and Bruce Brown. Like last year, Denver was a minus9 net team in the non-JIC minutes. They got destroyed there. They were great with Joic on, terrible with him off. This sort of depth helps alleviate that and helps make them more solid in those minutes, which is massive. And as you said, they already pushed OKC7 last year with disaster MPJ with significantly worse depth than they have this year. So, it’s not hard to see how they emerge this year now as the biggest threat to the Thunder and a bodified title threat. Absolutely, they can win it all. I think the swing factors for them are does Jonas Valenunis actually play for the team? That’s one. What level of shooter is Christian Brown by the end of this next season? Because we saw him up the efficiency in this regular season, but you never really trusted it. And in the playoffs, you see why. He is still a guy who you can roam off of. He shot below 30% from deep in the playoffs. So, that has to be better. But, he’s such a good all-around player besides that. And if he is really struggling again, now they have more options. They can go with THJ for some more minutes. Whereas last year it was like, are we really going to go with Julian Strawther in this big spot? They’ve made that dilemma a little bit easier to handle. I think their collective defensive ceiling is also a swing factor because throughout the regular season, they had a lot of discouraging returns there and then in the playoffs you saw them scheme up some effective coverages with the zone. everybody buy in, everybody play up to their defensive potential, and they were actually quite a solid playoff defense. So, if they get there and if Jamal Murray does play, it doesn’t have to be 2023 level, but close to that. Like, if you get him really on as a shot maker, more consistent than he has been overall in recent years, then the offense is going to be probably the best in basketball. Jokic should take over and be the best player in the world. The defense can be legitimately solid. the depth is better, the shooting is better. Yeah, they can win it all. Ultimately, I do still think that OKC is just more talented, and we’ll talk about why in a second. And I do still view them as the favorite, but Denver is a more imposing threat than anybody OKC faced last year. I can say that at least on paper with confidence. And I mean, a big factor of this is the Jokic factor. I mean, the fact that, you know, OKC’s got better options, but we even saw like you’re not going to be able to shut him down every game for a sevename series. And I think with the reinforcements that they have, I think that OKC isn’t going to be able to play as that aggressive kind of defensive coverage on them. And if they do, I think Denver supporting cast is much more well equipped to punish them uh for some of that aggression. But I think OKC has an opportunity to be even better next season, too. Yeah. So, let’s talk about it. Why are the Thunder still number one? So, crazy great defense, right? like a historically dominant defense. We talked about that early in the episode with some of these other teams. It’s a different level with the Thunder where I mean they’ve got six alldefense caliber guys and there’s just no weak points that you can really attack in most of their lineups. But the reason that I think they can get better, one I think JDub can be more consistent and he can be more reliable and better. More importantly, I think Chad Homegrren can be way more reliable offensively. The Chad Homegrren that we got in the beginning of last regular season before he got injured looked like a different player. The level of aggression, the level of comfortability handling the basketball, the level of shooter that I think Chad Holgren is, where I think at his apex should be close to a 40% three-point shooter. He’s got a ton of game that I’m just waiting for Chad to tap into. So, I can see the big three being better o along with this elite defense. I could see Kase Wallace uh getting a little better off the bench, but really it’s that foundation. It’s the big three and then I think the introduction of a guy like Nicole Topic could really be a meaningful upgrade uh for this basketball team. I I watched a little bit of him in the summer league. Carson, I know you were really high on him uh coming out of the draft. Topic has got game, man. And I know some people have been skeptical on whether he can be a factor for them meaningfully in what is effectively going to be his rookie year. I think so. He has got a level of comfort handling, a level of poise and feel out of pick and roll and just in the mid-range like it’s crazy. And and what I really like too is his physicality as a driver. He’s got a really strong base. I like how he bumps guys off of drives and gets down to the low block. and he’s an awesome passer and not just like Giddy like in transition in the half court the creativity like I think any basketball fan is a sucker for good playmaking like I think passing is the most beautiful thing that you can do in any sport if it’s soccer if it’s basketball but Topic is a really phenomenal passer and so I think you know I don’t know how big of a role he would play in a playoff run if it’s 12 minutes if it’s 15 minutes right he’s still stuck behind all defense guards and guys who are going to give you a great 20 minutes a night like an Alex Caruso, but he’s a meaningful addition to me off the bench. I think Oklahoma City could have been even more aggressive in the off season. We talked about them acquiring a Cam Johnson, the Nuggets topped on that if it was a Trey Murphy, whoever it was. So, I think there was more meat on the bone for Oklahoma City in this off season that they could have bit off, that they could have chewed, but their young guys are still going to continue to get better. And they’ve got a lot of young guys down the roster that who knows? I mean, this this roster is ridiculously This is the second youngest NBA champ ever to Bill Walton’s Blazers, and we were robbed of that team’s prime because Bill Walton unfortunately got injured. uh this team’s got a ton of more room to grow into and uh I think with a defensive foundation that this group has got with a big three like this, they’ve still got to be number one. I concur and I’m talking about the ceiling for these other teams. I’m talking about Denver being the best offense in basketball on paper. The reality is your ceiling does not exist against the Oklahoma City Thunder. You’re not going to hit your ceiling. The defense is just that monumentally great. Nico Joic averaged 313 and 10 on 66% true shooting in the regular season. Is the greatest box score season we’ve ever seen in the history of this game. Goes into the playoffs. He’s a monster. Obviously, he still puts up 284 and six. But I mean, that is way less assist production while he’s doing it much less efficiently. 59% true shooting with four and a half turnovers a game. And yes, he had a couple masterpieces. He also had some clunkers in that series. So, do I think he can play better against Oklahoma City in a rematch? Yeah, I think he probably would because I think he’s just that great. But is he going to average 30, 13 and 10 on 66% true shooting like he can do to anybody else? No. Cuz he’s going up against one of the best defenses ever that has such ridiculous versatility and is built to beat anybody, man. Because they’re not like specifically engineered for Joic, right? A lot of what they did to fluster him was guarding him with smalls, swarming the [ __ ] out of him. When you have that much talent defensively, that much depth, that many athletes, that much speed, that much length, like you can make life hard on literally anybody. And that’s what OKC did over and over again throughout these playoffs. So, that’s their superpower, one of the best defenses we’ve ever seen. Then they have an all-time scorer and offensive engine in Shay who had one of the great regular seasons we’ve ever seen and wasn’t as seamless and flawless in the playoffs, but still really damn good. And they’ve got incredible depth, all of which they have maintained. They’re basically just running it back from last year when they won 68 games, even with a top three player on their team missing 50 games and they won the title, which they also did while shooting under 34% from three in the playoffs. So, they were able to overcome that. I would say probably the three-point shooting is the biggest question for this team. It is what I wanted them to address personally, but like I think this was pretty close to their floor in terms of shooting this playoff run in totality. And they still won the title. So, I think they could overcome it again. I also think they could just shoot better next time around. And then a year from now, is Sheay more consistent with the three ball and the playmaking in a playoff run? I would say yeah. I think the playmaking had some really high highs. It also had some low lows, but this is his first deep playoff run as like this superstar number one option on a title team. He’ll get better. He’ll be more consistent there. Is Chad shooting better? Maybe cleans up and speeds up the mechanics a little bit. And is he more effective off the bounce? Is he a little bit more capable to utilize his handle and not have to pick up his dribble so consistently and turn his back to the basket in the playoffs against physical intense defenses? Yeah, I think he will be better. Is Jada maybe a little bit more consistently playing downhill like he was later in the playoffs where he’s getting to the rim in the line more and he’s not settling as much for a tough shot diet which can be an issue for him. Like my guess to all those questions would be yes. I’m expecting improvement from the big three in all those ways. Not huge sweeping dramatic improvements, but marginal improvements. So, even without roster changes, I do think they’ll be a little better than they were this year, and they were clearly the best team in basketball this past year. Also, I think Topic is a good shout out. Like, I have always liked him. I’ve always been an optimist. I do want to temper expectations for what a rookie can do for a title team. It’s just rare that you see a legitimate contributor who’s that young, that new to the NBA, but he obviously has the potential to fill a very important role for them because you look at the three-point shooting, but you also look at having another ball handler who can take some pressure off of Shay and Jub and that’s what Topic could be. So, if the goal is 12 minutes a game, I can see it. I think he’s a really good driver and finisher. I think he’s a hell of a passer. It’s going to hinge on the jump shot and it’s going to be a struggle for him defensively in the playoffs. That’s where, you know, everything just gets exposed. It’s a different level of basketball. He’s not that great of an athlete defensively where guys can get by him and they can rise and fire over him. But what I will give him credit like he’s an effort guy. He is g he is gonna bust his ass. Like Topage is gonna try hard. I there are some again athletic shortcomings that he’s not going to be able to overcome, but he’s uh he does try really hard. And I do like his intermediate game, too. He’s got a little bit of a floater game in the intermediate. Like he’s crafty, man. He’s really crafty. I think uh maybe next year, we’ll see. But I definitely think he could have a big a big role off the bench for them over the next few years. He’s he’s solid, man. I really like him. He’s a good talent. It’s a lot to ask, but at least the upside is there. And I think even without making a move, the upside is there for OKC to improve. But I do think other teams have not closed the gap because OKC is still a clear favorite, but they have shrunk the gap because I think Houston, Denver, they aced their off seasons. And when I think about how you beat OKC, I think it rests on dragging them into the mud with you a bit because you know that again their defense is that special. you’re not reaching your offensive ceiling against them. I think Houston can drag them into the mud with that elite defense, with their ability to maybe even win the possession game, which is so hard to do against OKC, but they’re that great on the glass. And then their half court offense can be good enough now to maybe win that series. Denver is obviously not nearly the level of defensive team that Houston is, but can they get crafty with the scheme again? I could see it. and then their offense isn’t going to reach its potential, but I think that it’s a good enough offense because I think it’s the best in the league that you could see them sneaking past them like that. Cleveland, it’s a little bit harder for me to see them dragging OKC into the mud, so to speak, but that offense has a ton of firepower. So, those are the three teams I look at with the best chance to beat them. But still, if you’re just asking me what’s most likely, I think, yeah, okay, Houston and OKC get into a rock fight. They get nasty. But OKC’s defense is even better, and Shay is the best player in that series, and he’s able to generate a higher shot quality than the Houston offense can. Or if you look at the Denver series, yeah, the Denver’s offense is really good. But I think OKC can be more consistent if they see the zone again, for example, because we already saw them improve against it this past year and Shay would be a little bit more consistently surgical and maybe the shooting is a little more consistent and then their defense is going to make life hard on Denver. Like, it’s not that OKC is unbeatable or that they’re untouchable. It’s just I’m most confident in them having the solutions at the end of the day because they’re the most talented team and they’re still super young. This is really just the beginning for this team. Yep. Yep. That is certainly the truth. And uh this is not even the beginning for the 2026 NBA season. We haven’t even gone to summer league yet, Logan, which we are about to do. So that’ll be fun. Think we’re going to record a pod down there. We’ve got more trivia coming. We’ve got more NBA rankings coming. We did our alltime NBA draft earlier this week with Mars and Tyler from Hoot Venue. That was a ton of fun. I just had a blast, Logan. One of my favorite episodes that we’ve done probably. So, go check that out if you want and stay locked in because you know we got the collabs coming. We got the good vibes coming. We got the hoop top coming. It’s going to be a great summer over here at Nerd Session. If you want more of it, subscribe to our YouTube channel. Everything is there. Listen to the pod across all audio platforms and follow us across social, Tik Tok, Instagram at nerdsession and Twitter, nerd sesh. You can also join our discord if you want to chat with the gang there. And with that, as always, I’ve been Carson Brabber. I have been Logan Camden and this was Nerd Sash.
The nerds rank their way-too-early Top 10 NBA contenders for the 2025-26 season, discussing whether LeBron James, Luka Doncic and the Los Angeles Lakers or Steph Curry and the Golden State Warriors have a better chance at a deep playoff run, ranking the New York Knicks and Orlando Magic among the Eastern Conference’s best, and laying out whether Donovan Mitchell’s Cleveland Cavaliers, Kevin Durant’s Houston Rockets, Nikola Jokic’s Denver Nuggets have the best chance to knock off Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Timeline:
2:00 Lakers vs. Warriors
20:20 Magic
31:24 Knicks
39:40 Mavericks
48:33 Clippers
59:13 Timberwolves
1:07:00 Cavaliers
1:16:48 Rockets
1:25:20 Nuggets
1:34:09 Thunder
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44 Comments
This is spurs erasure. There’s no world you look at the lakers, warriors, or mavericks, hell maybe even the clippers and timberwolves roster up and down, 1-12 and say “yeah, they’re better”. Not even a mention on the tough cuts, but Philly and Atlanta are? Come on guys
Idk how the Lakers don’t make the list after a 50 win season, keeping essentially the same team and switching Hayes for Ayton at center. Losing DFS is something, but that center hole was more important to fill. Second season of Luka and LeBron now, and using LeBron is aging as a negative factor is just silly now — was basically 1st team all nba last year at 40 lol
im hungry for the inside of carsons shirt
Denver took OKC to 7 with MPJ and Gordon with significant injuries. They also had a terrible bench and the refs let OKC jump on Jokic like they were a backpack. They are deeper, they will be healthier and alot more versatile. Christian, Watson and Strawther should improve….
I like the rockets, KD with young and talented squad would be fun
Why would the Knicks go from the 13th ranked defense to bottom 10? you guys constantly hyperbolize how bad the defense is and its annoying
Very simple rule I live by… if a team relays on James Harden they are not a contender
1:01:01 why did adam silver just make a horse noise 🤔🤔🤔
Knicks have 1 team ahead of them in the east yet they are the 8th contender? Trash
Nerd Up!
Knicks way too low: they play in the east so even if there are teams in the west that one thinks is better, they still have a better chance at making/winning the title
A couple articles have come out that claim Valanciunas is going to remain with the Nuggets. You might want to cover this story.
Nuggets fan checkin in- I think it’s crazy how little everyone is thinking of Ayton on the Lakers. His production is such an upgrade compared to last year.
Knicks at 8 is asinine will echo the sentiment love the show
Knicks below mavs is insane
Franz and Poulo both average 25 and they both missed 1/3 of the season…
Finals matchup Suns vs. Pelicans I am a basketball savant ama
The warriors are weirdest team to rank for me.
The Knicks this low is ridiculous man. The disrespect after ONE YEAR with a completely new core?? We beat the 'almighty' celtics???? Why do we not get an adjustment period for defensive communication bro KAT and brunson Bla bla what about garland and Mitchell, jokic and murray, van vleet and sengun?? Just pitty bro BEHIND THE MAVS? THE WOLVES? JAMES HARDEN???? joke thing
My goats dropped to carry me through the end of my shift✌🏽
Good list
Get Kenny on again‼️
My top 10:
1. OKC
2. Cleveland
3. Denver
4. Houston
5. Dallas
6. Clippers
7. Minnesota
8. New York
9. Orlando
10. Golden State
Casual podcast omg 💀 not even a mention of the blazers
Actually, the Mavericks are a light horse 🤓
24:50 last time I checked conservatives and coming out don’t really go hand in hand
The Orlando Magic's top four scores only played five games together last year……
Reaves was hurt in the Minny series. Chuka 2020->21 Jokic type physique & play leap coming this season shits obvious
Yall not accounting for possible trades, which is understandable but then again… Good chance the Laykuhs are getting a starter to deploy at the POA like Wiggins or Smart which changes the equation a bit.
You haven’t mentioned AJ Mitchell. If he stays healthy, he’ll be in the regular rotation. He was unbelievable last season until he broke his toe. Another 2nd round pick.
At that match up against a very healthy OKC, Denver had Jamal sick, MPJ playing with one arm and Aaron Gordon with an calf injury, without a bench, and still took them to 7 games. Now the Nuggets will be much better, and with better spacing this time they won't be able to get away with dropping the entire defense on the Joker to stop him.
Nerd Sesh offseason up to an ABSOLUTELY ELECTRIC start…lets gooooo
Crazy how quick things change. Celtics used to be a competitive team, now they’re not even in the top 20
John Collins is 100% starting
I agree the Warriors are cooked
Not mentioning the loss of Ty Jerome for the Cavs is something.
Jerome led 129.8 ORTG units without Mitchell and Garland this season across 506 possessions. He was demonic in the RS and the 3rd best offensive player on said historic offense.
He put up straight bs 27/6/5 per 75 on 67.5% TS in 770 minutes without Mitchell on the floor.
What about the Spurs ???
Re Topic and OKC, Topic will be a good NBA player, rookie offensive PGs are not good NBA players though.
The Knicks hate in here is just ridiculous. Cavs (never proven), Wolves (same roster minus NAW) and Clips ( good luck keeping Kawhi healthy) are all above the Knicks. It’s funny every channel including this one hates the Knicks so much except the Knicks channels themselves.
i understand brunson and kat being a weak point defensively but as we’ve seen it takes an elite mismatch attacking team to truly take advantage of it as they have so much defensive firepower outside of them. they were a top 15 unit last year and were the primary unit that won them the first two rounds of the playoffs and i don’t see them getting any worse
Clippers over Knicks?? Did you watch the playoffs at all?
We still acting like clippers can win in 2025?
Yall have a james harden led offense team over wemby team? And the conference finals knicks?
who is your guys’ favorite teams?
You guys are the reason people make fun of analytics by the way. It’s like you guys just read advanced stats to yourself over and over again.