Miami Heat 2025-26 Season Prediction | Should the Heat go after Damian Lillard?

Miami Heat 2025-26 Season Prediction | Should the Heat go after Damian Lillard?

Welcome back to HQ Spotlight. You know, four days ago, a three-team trade in the NBA was made official. The Clippers, Jazz, and Heat doing business. And in the deal, Norman Pal leaves the West Coast for Miami. One of the best six men in the NBA. Some saying an underrated player. I asked him this week if he thought he was an underrated player in the association. Um, I think I am. Uh, I never viewed myself as that, but I think I am just from like the talks and the publicity. underrated in a sense of people don’t really understand or see what I can bring to the table throughout the course of my year. And I think uh last year was like the full year of people being able to see like, man, this guy is actually really good and uh can be somebody that can uh a go-to guy every single night and uh and help a team win. Our NBA experts, John Gonzalez, Sam Quinn joining us again. And guys, unfortunately, I’m going have to bully you like James and Jacqueline did earlier and get a season prediction on the Heat later in this segment, but let’s start right here with Norman Pal. And John, I’ll start with you. He said he felt underrated just because the guys he played behind there on some of these other teams. Was this an underrated move when it’s all said and done in the offseason? Yeah, Miami Mike talking to New Heat. Norm Pal, I love that for you guys. I like Norm Pal. I always have. I always thought he was underrated. You heard him talking about it there. It’s interesting that he has that self-awareness to realist because some professional athletes will delude themselves into believing that uh they’re greater than they actually are. I think Norm Powell’s hit on something here though that he was sort of underrated for a long time last year. You saw what happened when he got a full starting role. Paul George left for the Philadelphia 76ers. Norm Powell stepped in, became new PG in that role. He was excellent. However, if you’re the Clippers, you swap him out for John Collins, who’s four years younger, and you really bolster that front line. And I think that the Clippers, as much as they will miss Norm Powell’s shooting, uh, and his offense on the perimeter, especially, I think that they got better this year. And then Norm Powell, for as much as I like him, I don’t know that he necessarily moves the needle for the Heat. And that’s not his fault. I just don’t think that Norm Powell, Tyler Herrell, and Bam Adabio as your best three guys gets you much even in a weak Eastern Conference. Yeah. You know, if he was worried about being underrated because of the guys he was playing with, that’s not going to be a problem in Miami this year, right? So much of what happened for the Heat last year, you’d watch these games and Tyler Herro was the only guy on the team who could dribble, right? Like they didn’t have nearly enough shot creation to win at like even a remotely competitive level. But that being said, I think John’s right. Like I don’t know how much of a needle mover this is for a 37 win team. You see the Heat do this every now and then, right? You go back as far as like 2008, they’re sort of just treading water, treading water, clearing cap space, waiting to try to sign LeBron. You know, end of last decade, they spend three years around 500, waiting for a star to fall into their laps. They eventually get Jimmy Butler. The Heat will do this. They will go through these stretches where they just sort of hang around 500, try to stay remotely competitive, you know, like be in the playoff mix, maybe win a series, but not go all out waiting for that right opportunity to strike. I think that’s what’s happening right now, right? Norman Powell doesn’t make you a championship contender. He makes you a team that could like go 500. That’s what they’re trying to do right now. They’re waiting for the bigger move to come along. It hasn’t yet, but given their history, you know, they have reason to be confident that it will eventually. Sammy, you’re leading me right to my next question because Heat fans have been clamoring for Pat Riley to make the big splashy move. Maybe the last one was Jimmy Butler. Sam, you think the Godfather is still the Godfather when it comes to wheeling and dealing or is it a bigger picture type of plan? And maybe Heat fans should just take a step back. I am growing a little bit skeptical of Riley at this point. I go back to last offseason. The Heat knew that they were not going to extend Jimmy Butler. That was very, very clear in Pat Riley’s press press conferences after the season, but they kept him and they just sort of said, “Ah, we’ll figure it out as we go.” That screamed old school Pat Riley to me, like trusting the player to be a professional. That maybe just isn’t the league anymore, right? Like maybe the league is starting to pass Miami by. I think they’d love to make a star trade, but the problem they now have is most of their young players are just not that valuable from a trade perspective. They still owe a first round pick out to Charlotte from the Terry Rosier trade. They’re not as well positioned to add star level talent as they’ve been in the past. And because stars aren’t moving through free agency anymore, they can’t just do the thing where they bring somebody to South Beach, you know, take him out on the water, really recruit him based on the location. Like, no, you have to trade for guys now. And in a world where you have to trade for guys, having assets and being strategically smart is the most important thing. And lately, I just don’t know that they’ve been at the top of the league from that perspective. John, let’s go to one of these stars that the Heat have sort of been tied to over the last few years. That’s Damen Lillard. Obviously, he’s dealing with the Achilles injury, but his days in Milwaukee are done, but now that he’s freed up, is this a potential landing spot for Dame? Eventually, maybe. Sam and I have talked about this previously. He’s been linked to Miami forever. He was linked to Boston after he blew out his Achilles and the Bucks decided to wave and stretch him. Somebody has to explain to me why this makes sense for either side for Dame Lillard to sign now rather than waiting a year after he’s recovered and then looking at the NBA landscape and finding the best spot for him a year from now. Look, Dame, I understand the argument of, oh, if you sign with a team, you’ll have access to their facility, plus you’ll have some more guaranteed money, but Dame Lillard doesn’t need more money. Dame Lillard can rehab on his own and has plenty of access to good medical care. If I’m Dame Lillard, I’m just waiting. You know, it sounds nice to go and rehab in in South uh South Beach for all the reasons that Sam just outlined there. It’s a really great spot, right? But so much can change in a year. If you’re Dame and you’re looking at this team right now, as we discussed with Norm Powell, Tyler Herro, BAM out of Bio, I don’t see them going anywhere. Maybe something changes in a year. Maybe they’ll be better positioned and then you sign with them. Or maybe you look around and go, “Man, this window’s closing. I’m 36 coming off an Achilles. if I have any shot of winning a championship or doing anything in the postseason and making a deep run, I should wait and find out what that spot is. I don’t get him signing now and I don’t get why Miami would want to lock him down now. Yeah, to John’s point, there might be teams out there you could maybe justify signing with early. If you’re joining a championship contender under the logic that you could maybe come off their bench in March, April, you know, play a smaller role this postseason. Okay, sure. If you’re going to Denver, if you’re going to Minnesota, if you’re going to a team that like actually has immediate championship ambitions, sure, maybe you could justify signing right now, but if you’re going to a place like Miami, like why do this now? They’re a 37 win team. I don’t know what he really has to gain by doing this. They’re going to be out there in a year, right? Like the Heat are never not going to want Damen Lillard on their team. The talent to money ratio there is just too appealing to deny. he’s probably going to sign for the minimum or something close to it on his next deal. If that’s going to be the case, I just don’t know what the reason is for signing with a team that only won 37 games last year, right? Like, you’re doing that right away. You’re doing that to join a contender. If you want to go to Miami that badly, make them spend the year proving to you that they’re actually capable of contending. Yeah, that’s a good point. All right, guys. I want to talk about a little bit of a butterfly effect that happened around the draft lottery time with the Heat. This is going to sting, especially if you’re watching Cooper Flag. I know he struggled a little bit last night, but had the Heat not made the playin, they would have had the 11th spot in a draft lottery, which of course went to Dallas. So the Maverick Mavericks end up with Cooper Flag. Miami ends up picking 20th and they get Casper, Jack, and Chonis. So who’s only made one bucket so far through three summer league games. Sam, should Heat fans panic about this or do you just try to just bury that and pretend like it never happened? Not all summer league, not all players are equipped for summer league, right? Summer league is tends to be just given the weakness of the supporting cast. It tends to really favor high level scorers, but not everybody fits, right? Remember Trey Young was terrible when he first got to summer league. He’s gone on to become an all-star. I wouldn’t judge any rookie based on what they do in Vegas, especially not before their rookie season. So, I’m just trying to ignore that and saying, look, we were a team that picked roughly in the right area based on where we were. I wouldn’t get too caught up in the Cooper flag stuff. You drive yourself crazy that way. Miamiy’s always been more about adding veteran stars anyway, right? Whether it’s Shaq, whether it’s LeBron, whether it’s, you know, Jimmy Butler, they’ve drafted great players. Dwayne Wade, Bam Manabio come to mind, but like the Heat have never been the sort of team that’s relied on getting to the top of the lottery. I don’t think they planned to be at the top of the lottery. So, Cooper Flag certainly would have been nice, but I don’t think you can really dwell on not getting him. They didn’t have good odds of getting him anyway. Oh, you can dwell on not getting him. I mean, you can absolutely think about what could have been in an alternate universe where you’ve got Cooper Flag in Miami instead of in Dallas. But the good thing here in terms of Caspers is like it’s summer league, right? This is the great thing about summer league. In summer league, when your guy doesn’t play well, you go, who cares? It’s summer league. And then if he does play well, you go, you know who’s good? Our guy that we drafted. It’s the best part about summer league. It’s a total roarshock test. It can be whatever you want it to be. But yes, I would think if you’re a Miami Heat fan, you would be pining away for Cooper Flag for quite some time. Sometimes these things happen. The ping-pong balls don’t bounce your way. The coin flip doesn’t go in your favor. It’s going to be a bummer. Uh but enjoy watching him from afar. All right, guys. Time to hold your feet to the fire here and make these, you know, season predictions. And John, I’ll start with you. The Heat have had the play in market cornered for it seems like forever. Is that where they’re destined to be going forward here, at least this year? Yeah, Miami Mike, I hate to do this to you and your new guy, Norm Powell. Do a little ear muffs for me, buddy. Uh, yes. I think that they’re barreling towards fighting for one of the last two spots for the play. And look, if you look at the Eastern Conference, I think there’s a pretty clear hierarchy at the top with the two teams. You’ve got uh the Cleveland Cavaliers, who are the number one team in the Eastern Conference all season long. And then you got the New York Knicks who made their first e Eastern Conference Finals in 25 years. In the tier right below them, you’ve got some teams that are on the rise, right? You’ve got the Magic who traded for Desmond Bane. They locked up Palo Ben Carroll. You got the Pistons who could have unseated the Knicks in the first round, but they’ve got Cade Cunningham. They’re on the move. And then the Hawks, I absolutely love what the Hawks did this off seasonason grabbing Chris Porzingis, Nquille Alexander Walker, Luke Canard for shooting. They get Jaylen Johnson back who’s the best player on that team by the way. And then there’s another team right below a tier below that where I think the 76ers and the Pacers even without Hallebertton and um Miles Turner I think will be in that mix. So that leaves four teams with the Raptors, the Celtics who are just decimated without Jason Tatum and they moved on from KP and Drew Holiday, the Bulls and then your Heat. That’s four teams fighting for those last two playin spots. I think that’s pretty much where you’re going to be if you’re the Heat this season. Yeah, I’ve been having fun with these ultra specific predictions. So here’s what I’m going to say. They finished number nine in the regular season. They win the 910 game and then they lose the 89 game. I’ll throw out a score. Let’s say 104 to 96 on the road and that’s how their season ends. Again, it’s just on it’s on loop. It’s on repeat. It’s that’s how it goes. All right, John Gonzalez, Sam Quinn, I am sad, but thank you for joining us. Here are the odds to win the Eastern Conference next year. Way down the list, Miami 11th best odds at plus 5,000. And you heard John kind of list off the teams ahead and the Cavaliers have the best odds as do the Knicks. They’re at plus 260 to win. You don’t want to talk about the Magic at 5 to1. No one wants to talk about the Mic insufferable. I mean, here we go.

John Gonzales and Sam Quinn join CBS Sports HQ Spotlight to preview and predict the 2025-26 season for the Miami Heat.

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