How will the SPURS use De’Aaron Fox? Here’s How.

How will the SPURS use De’Aaron Fox? Here’s How.

Every NBA off season is filled with whatifs, but some are more fascinating than others. Imagine this. The Spurs heading into year three of the Wemby era make a move for Dearan Fox. The hype would be instant. But how would a coach actually integrate him? To answer that, you have to go deeper than the highlights. You have to answer a more fundamental question. Who is the Aaron Fox analytically? What is his true player archetype and how has it evolved? What do his specific shot charts and advanced stats tell us about what makes him tick? This isn’t a simple would they be good video. This is an analytical deep dive. We are putting De’aran Fox’s entire game under the microscope to build a datadriven profile of him as a player. By understanding who he is, we can then understand how a team like the Spurs would try to unleash him. Feel the rumble. It’s deep in my core. A storm in my soul I can’t ignore. Locked and loaded. I’m ready to go. Unleashing the power. Let the world know. Strength of the mind. Fire in my veins. Breaking the limits. I’m shattering chains. This is the moment. I’m claiming my hour. Stand back. Watch me unleash the power. Unleash the power. Let it ignite. Burn through the darkness into the light. No holding back is my finest hour. Feel the energy. I’m releasing the power. I’m releasing the power. [Music] During his first three seasons, Fox introduced himself to the league as a lightning fast, high usage guard with incredible verticality. His statistical profile tells a clear story. Elite finishing at the rim, high assist numbers, but also high turnovers, and virtually no touch from deep range. It’s no surprise that during this time names like a young Devin Harris and a prime athletic John Wall were lurking as his statistical twins. But then the next phase of his career began. In the two seasons spanning from 2020 to 2022, Fox made a clear leap. He was no longer just a speedster. His statistical profile became incredibly similar to that of Kyrie Irving. This is where he honed his craft, adding a polished handle and a legitimate deeprain shot, transforming himself into a true three-level scoring threat. The very next season in 2022 to 2023, he evolved again. He became Devin Booker. The data shows a player who had mastered the mid-range, developing that goto automatic jumper that a true number one option needs in their bag. That brings us to the 2023 to 24 season where his game mirrored a prime Kyle Lowry. This is the gritty allstar 2016 Kyle Lowry, the bulldog who carried the Toronto Raptors on his back. It’s the profile of a player shouldering the full offensive load with incredible toughness and leadership. And finally, that brings us to the data from the 2024 to 25 season, which needs context. With team drama and uncertainty, Fox’s role shifted. His statistical profile reflects a player forced to be a survivor shouldering an immense offensive burden. His comps become high volume scorers like Caris Levert and a prime Bradley Beal. Players often ask to create everything on their own. This is the profile of a great player adapting to turbulent circumstances. [Music] So to put Fox’s career in context, let’s see how he stacks up against his 2017 draft peers using fantasy points, a metric that summarizes total production. While Jason Tatum quickly set the benchmark for the class, the most impressive story is the Aaron Fox’s trajectory. He started with much lower production than his peers, but season after season, he made a relentless climb into the absolute top tier. That small dip you see in his most recent season reflects the turbulence we just discussed, but the big picture is undeniable. Fox has soared past expectations to become one of the premier players from his draft class. Now, let’s move from a historical view to Fox’s specific calling card in today’s league. This chart maps every guard’s pace against their number of possessions. Think of it like this. The further to the right, the faster a player plays, the higher up, the more the offense runs through them. And the size of the bubble, that’s a key defensive metric. steals. That top right area is the zone where the NBA’s primary engines live. The guys who play fast and dominate the ball. Unsurprisingly, we see De’aran Fox planted firmly in that quadrant, right alongside elite guards like Devin Booker and Sheay Gilgis Alexander. He’s clearly one of the league’s heaviest usage guards. And as the chart shows, he operates at a blistering pace. But here’s the detail that separates him. Look at the size of his bubble. While other guards in this quadrant are carrying a similar offensive load, Fox’s bubble for steals is noticeably larger. He combines that elite offensive responsibility with game-changing defensive disruption. He isn’t just an offensive star. He’s a two-way chaos creator at one of the highest paces in the league. Very few players can claim that signature. So, we know Fox is an elite engine, but how does he get his points? Let’s break down his shot profile. First, looking at his maid shot season by season, we see a clear upward trend in his overall volume, peaking in that dominant 2023 to 24 campaign. But the most telling detail is the color breakdown. The vast majority of his made baskets are unassisted. This isn’t a player who relies on others to set him up. He is a true self-sufficient shot creator. So, where are those unassisted shots coming from? This chart of his career shot distribution tells the whole story. The overwhelming majority of his self-created makes shown here in green are clustered right at the rim. He is first and foremost an elite finisher who uses his speed to generate high percentage looks for himself inside. But notice where the assisted shots in gray become most prominent from a threepoint range. This paints a clear picture of his offensive style. He creates for himself going to the basket, but often relies on his teammates for catch and shoot opportunities from deep. Finally, what does the future hold for his shot selection? We can use a forecasting model to project his shot attempts over the next season. The model validates everything we’ve seen. It predicts that his shot diet will remain consistent, heavily favoring attempts close to the basket with a steady but lower volume of shots from mid-range and deep. The data suggests Fox knows exactly who he is as a scorer and will continue to lean into his strengths. [Music] So, we’ve seen Fox’s evolution, his signature style, and his shot profile. But what are the hidden ingredients that actually lead to him having a winning impact on the court? To find out, we built a regression model to predict his plus minus. Essentially asking the data, what is the secret formula for a successful Dear Fox game? The results were fascinating and they reveal four key ingredients. First, the front court connection. Surprisingly, the number one factor in Fox’s success isn’t his own scoring. It’s the points scored by his forwards. His game is unlocked when he’s surrounded by effective bigs he can play off of. Whether it’s a stretch for spacing the floor or a dominant partner in the pick and roll. Second, the defensive engine. And we know Fox is a steals machine, but his personal steals weren’t the biggest defensive factor. Instead, his impact skyrockets when the team forces turnovers from the opposing forwards. His true value comes from turning those mistakes into the fast break opportunities where he is absolutely lethal. Third, the attacker’s green light. When it comes to his own game, the model gives him a clear directive. Attack. His raw point total was far more important to his plus minus than his efficiency or his turnovers. For his team to succeed, they need Fox in relentless high volume scoring mode. And finally, the modern guard battle. The model pinpoints the three-point line as a key battleground. Fox thrives when his backcourt partner is a willing shooter who can space the floor for his drives. And he’s most vulnerable when the opposing guards get hot from Dup. So, the recipe for success is clear. Surround him with scoring forwards fuel his transition game. Let him attack relentlessly and win the three-point battle at the guard spot. It’s a complex formula that proves just how uniquely dynamic a player to Aaron Fox really is. [Music] So, after breaking down the archetype, the shot profile, and the hidden formula for success, we come back to our original question. How would the San Antonio Spurs in year three of the Victor Webyama era actually use the Aaron Fox? The strategy isn’t just about adding a star. It’s about building a specific ecosystem around his unique talents, and it leads to some unexpected conclusions. The offense starts with the Fox and Wemama twoman game, but here’s the bold counterintuitive strategy that could make it legendary. You don’t make Victor the primary scorer. You let De’arren Fox, the proven offensive engine, carry that load. This move allows Wemyama to focus his generational talent on one thing, becoming the most dominant defensive force the league has ever seen. The offense runs through Fox’s relentless attacks. The championships run through Victor’s defense. Next, you solve the backcourt puzzle. Our model showed Fox’s biggest kryptonite is an opposing guard who’s hot from three. Therefore, his partner needs to be a two-way dog. A tenacious defender who can chase shooters off the line all night, but also a reliable shooter who can serve as an outlet and make the opponent work on the other end. This is where a defender like Stefan Castle is crucial, while shooters like Devin Vel and Harrison Barnes provide the spacing Fox needs to operate. And this is where the signing of a rookie like Dylan Harper suddenly makes perfect subtle sense. We know Fox is a score first guard. Harper with his crafty Jaylen Brunson-like game can act as a secondary creator running the offense when Fox is off ball or resting. It’s a savvy move that complements Fox’s attack first mentality. With the system in place, the final step is simple. Give Fox the keys. Our analysis was clear. He’s a high usage, high-pace engine who succeeds most when given a green light to attack. He solves the Spurs consistency problems by providing a highf flooror offensive threat every single night. So, is it a perfect fit? By allowing Fox to be the offensive engine, you paradoxically unlock the best version of Victor Webbyama on defense. De’Aran Fox doesn’t just accelerate their timeline. His presence fundamentally reshapes their path to a title. He’s not just another piece. He’s the catalyst that could turn San Antonio’s promising young core into a legitimate championship contender. But what do you think is letting WBY focus on defense secret to a dynasty? Let me know your thoughts in the comments below. Thanks for watching. [Music]

With the newest rookie in Dylan Harper and Carter Bryant, plus a healthy Wemby and stacked front court, how will the SPURS use De’Aaron Fox? We will answer that question using an analytical and data science approach mining Fox’s entire career data

TIMESTAMPS:
00:01 – Intro: The Big Question
01:43- Part 1: His Archetype
04:10 – Part 2:League-Wide Comparisons
06:22 – Part 3: Shot Analysis
08:20 – Part 4: What makes him tick
10:36 – Conclusion