Best case with this Miami Heat roster (Part 1 of 2) | Five on the Floor

Best case with this Miami Heat roster (Part 1 of 2) | Five on the Floor

Welcome to the latest episode of five on the floor on the five reason sports network. Thanks for joining us on your favorite podcast app. On Apple, recommend Apple podcast or Spotify. If you’re on Android, we really do recommend you getting us on Spotify. It gets there the quickest. Stream us. And again, we’re there for every single episode. You can also check out the Five Reasons YouTube channel for content around the South Florida Sports Spectrum. And check out Off the Floor Discord server link right here in the description. Bypass the Apple Upcharge, pay the $299 a month, you can cancel at any time. 10 different channels, everything good from Twitter split up there so that he fans can consume it easily and then converse about it. Also, we’ve got the stage shows and the host updates. More to come on off the floor. This is where you’re going to want to be as we get closer to training camp. So, give it a try today. Also, prize picks. Use the code five fivic official fantasy sponsor of the Five Reason Sports Network. Legal in the state of Florida. Yes, there are things to play there right now. Actually, Pacquiao is fighting tonight, so you can get in on that one if you’re listening to this on Saturday. Um, and he is on there as well as MLB is now back after Allstar and WNBA. So, check it out. It’s prize picks. Use the code FIV ve. And now today’s episode [Music] heat nation. Yeah. Mercy down the on the floor. Ride for my dogs. Here’s a thing. You can check the score. Hustle hard. Couple stars. Bubble frog. [Music] Got it all. Y’all see the block with one hand and paps. We here to bring the heat. Y’all can hang it up. Welcome to Five on the Floor, a daily insider show on the Miami Heat and the NBA featuring Ethan Skolnick, Greg Sander, Alex Toledo, Brady Hawk, and others from the Five Reason Sports Network. Also, make sure to subscribe to Off the Floor for the most heat anywhere. [Music] Hi, welcome back to Five on the Floor. Here’s today’s floor plan. I’m Ethan Skol. You can follow me at Ethan Jolig Sports. We got Greg Sander. You can follow me at Greg Sander. Make sure to check out recent episodes that we did, including should Eric Spoler continue to be outspoken. Thank you for the pun. Uh went in there with Matteo and you What do you think on that, by the way? Yes. No. Yes. He needs to speak up as much as possible. This is his league now. But so that’s right. I’m probably on Shawn’s side. Yeah, I was on Sean’s side, too. Although I Matteo made a couple good points. I think one of the points that I took from Matteo that I also uh that I do agree with is it can’t if you’re going to do it, it can’t just be one guy. Oh, for sure. Right. Because that because then the player thinks that you’re picking on him. So, but other than that, I’m I’m in favor of it. Also, another episode should be up by now uh by the time you listen to this one. Eternal and I on Bam’s 28th birthday. Kind of where he goes from here. And then many other episodes about Hakachonis are in there. summer league uh mercifully mercifully over. Um and I say that because the there were some decent things that happened. Uh you know, I think where being called out and responding is one of those things. I think that uh you know, obviously Pella Larson and you know, him looking like he’s improved yeartoear and there’s more that he can do in the rotation this season is good. Uh, and Hakachon has had moments which I know you you got into in a pod with Adele, but you know, overall like the the summer league collection of players they had this year was not that inspiring compared to past years. So, I I still think that the two-way a two-way is going to come from somewhere else, but we’ll see where that goes. Uh, but what we’re going to talk about something a little bit bigger picture here, more important than a two-way. Last year, the two-ways really didn’t contribute at all. Um, is kind of best case and worst case scenarios for the roster as it stands. This is not This is not the roster you want. This is the roster you have. Uh that’s what we’re going to do uh this episode based on. We’re expecting Andrew Wiggins to be back in training camp. At least the Heat are signaling that. Uh and he’s been in the facility recently and they’ve spotlighted that on social media. I feel like they’re going out of their way, especially with Spolster’s comment to say, “Well, once Andrew gets comfortable.” Um and so that’s part of the team. That’s the direction he’s going. And the Terry Rosier thing. Brian von second and I might do an episode about this cuz he has followed this more closely than me. But there was some more news about Rosier. Not news. Well, it’s not news. It’s just more revelations about Rosier and and what highlighting what went on with that situation that he’s being investigated in this gambling, you know, player prop uh deal. And Brian has some thoughts on it. I have some thoughts on it, too. We’ll get to that. But as of right now, he’s on the roster also. So, we know what the roster is at the moment. Okay. And that roster has added Norm Powell, Simony Fonteio. I got better at that. Uh, Hakachonis, and who else are we looking at here? And, um, is that Wait, Burks is gone. I I mentioned Norm. Yes, Burks is gone. Duncan Robinson is gone. Yep. Kevin Love is gone. Right. Kyle Anderson. And Kyle Anderson is gone. DaVon’s back. DaVon is back. They have a roster spot, right? That’s where we’re at. And of course, they’re 1.4 million over the luxury tax. So, people keep DMing me asking me when they’re going to fill their last roster spot. And it might be never a while. Or or never. Yeah, that might was. It was pretty much never one year, wasn’t it? Uh, it c it certainly could be. Um, and by the way, Dame, yes, we will uh we will do an episode on on all of that at some point, but just two things on that. Number one, I was not all that in favor of having a red shirt year for him and bringing him back in at 36 37 after an Achilles. Anyway, I I did I did speak to that on an episode that we did. Um, but beyond that, there’s also uh the fan reaction to this, which I really objected to because people were getting on him for essentially, okay, wanting to be around his children, which is the way I read the situation based on based on how it played out. And so, I’m sorry, I’m just not going to be with you on that. Um, okay. Let’s get to the best case scenario for this team as is because that is the topic of this episode. Then we’ll do worst case scenario. So this is assuming okay for every say well nobody gets hurt right so we’re going to kind of take that out of the equation for best case and also for worst case because it’s very easy to say worst case scenario Bam gets hurt and he misses 80 games well yeah okay that’s worst case scenario but we’re talking about like what the potential is for the roster as it is provided that it is on the floor all right and then we’ll we’ll get into a little bit what the upside is with record and all that stuff but we’re going to talk about the individual parts of this um to me the number one thing here uh that uh will lead to their best self. Okay. Um is they they need they need a second scorer here to help Tyler Herro, who I do expect to have a very similar season to the one he just had. I don’t see a reason why he’s going to backslide. The last few games of the season last year uh were very good prior to the playoffs. They were actually his like eight to 10 best games of the season if you look at it in that stretch. He had like that little thing after the all-star break that wasn’t so great and then he picked it up afterwards. I expected to still play at a high level. I don’t think teams are going to quote unquote scheme him out. They were already double teaming him. They were doing all that stuff to him. And yes, he was having to react to all of it and sometimes it wasn’t always pretty, but I don’t expect like he’s going to all of a sudden shoot 37% from the floor this year. I don’t think that’s going to happen. But he he needs offensive help there. And we just did an episode on Norm Powell and I I really think the best case scenario for them and become credible offensive team is for Norm Powell to replicate what he was doing with the Clippers prior to the All-Star break last year. Is that fair? Yeah, they need they need Norm Pal to not just come in and score and do all the things that can help take pressure off Tyler, but there’s a degree of like we have to accept that the Heat’s best uh shooters are also their best scorers and Tyler and Norm. I mean, what did he shoot? close to 42% in in LA last year. Like they need that kind of shooting on high volume. I think that’s just going to be a big part of also replacing Duncan and um you know they they’re not bringing back Alec Burks it seems at this current moment. So like you’re really you’re needing not only your bucket getting from your back court but they also kind of have to be your spacers and that’s going to be a big part of how Bam can have a bounceback year as well. So, I’m with you. I feel like the Norm Paladition, you need him to also like, and this is a big thing we should acknowledge, he’s in a situation where he’s playing for a contract. So, he likely is going to come in uh and try to be the best version of himself to try to earn that contract. And that’s exactly what you want. You want a motivated guy that is looking to have his best season. Uh, and then if Tyler can replicate what he does, then then you can talk about this being with DaVon being off the bench, uh, an upgraded backcourt to what we’ve seen, um, maybe since the season that they went, uh, you know, with, uh, where they had Kyle and, you know, had the one seed in the conference. Like other than that, this this is going to be a revamped back court that I think uh can be pretty like if we’re going best case scenario here, it can be a pretty um as they say in that building, ignitable back court. Well, I I think that’s the difference between this year and last year is when they were talking up the TNT thing, it never felt to any of us, this is without knowing how Rosier was going to fall off a cliff. It never felt to any of us like it was sustainable anyway. Um because of the nature of the way that Rosier plays as as compared to the way Powell plays, which is that Rosier, although he had decent off the- ball numbers playing with Nel LaMelo and Charlotte on a horrible team. Uh Powell has had those off-the-ball numbers on a good team. I mean, they they were a playoff team last year. They weren’t really supposed to be that good after Paul George left. And Powell was a big reason why they were, especially again before he had an injury and before the break. So, the two of them uh you know, together I think can can do things that everybody wanted. Well, not everybody wanted, but that there was this hope trafficking about what the TNT backcourt could be. And I just don’t think that was Rosier dribbles too much for that. uh regardless even if he had shot the ball at his historical levels, okay? The the way those shots come are disruptive to the offense because a lot of them were rhythm. Like you just got to let him sort of go off and just hope he’s going to make all these tough shots. That’s not the way Norm Powell plays. The way Norm Powell plays is in the context of the offense. Um and and this was the case before he got to the Clippers. I mean, I’ve liked him since Toronto. He’s just he just fits with your team. he doesn’t screw things up in terms of your sets or anything like that. And and I think that the on the ball work that Tyler has had, even though we don’t want him on the ball the time will be helpful. So I I think that the back court has a chance to be what they were kind of hoping it to be last year that I don’t think any of us ever believed was it was going to be. Let’s start there. So if if that’s the case, okay, if if the back court is pretty good together offensively at least, and then you have the DaVon element defensively, and I’m not going to hope traffic Davon shooting what he shot with the Heat last year. He’s not going to shoot 45% from three. Give him credit for the work, but Brady and I have said this over and over, Alex, it’s you’re not getting that again. Okay, that’s it’s just such an outline what he’s done, right? Take 37. Okay. Like, right. I’m not I’m not I’m not going to project he’s going to shoot the way he shot at the end of last season, but you do have the makings of a pretty solid group there. I’m with you. So, let me throw one more in the mix in terms of a positive uh because I think this is the X-factor player for this season. And I I know some disagree with me because they’re going to talk about the player that was just talked about a lot in Vegas. To me, the X-factor player for the se season is Nicole Yoic. And I I think if they can finally, okay, and Spo I asked Spo this out there and he said, “Well, we were finding a role for him and then, you know, he got hurt. They got to find one consistent role for him, stick with it so he doesn’t have to think and just let him play.” I just think there is a skill set here that nobody else on this roster has. Um it’s the ability to kind of see the floor. Um, you know, again, he just he just think when he’s playing well, they look like sort of a welloiled machine sometimes because he just has the ability to see things a little bit before they happen. And there’s not, again, a lot of on this roster that you can say that about. They don’t have elite athleticism on this roster. So, they’re going to have to create offense in other ways. They don’t have a lot of guys just go get me a bucket, don’t need a screen. Okay, that’s not that’s not this what this roster is. They don’t have a lot of above the rim type stuff. I we’ll talk about Wiggins. Got to know where he’s at. But to me, Yoic, if they can find 30 minutes a night for him where he can be his best self and you get this back court playing well together, okay, the three of them, then, you know, maybe they can be a 12 to 15 offense in the East instead of scratching out 21st to 23rd as they have the past couple of years. That’s that’s kind of where I am with with a best case scenario on offense. Yeah, I’m with you there. I think that um a lot’s going to depend on shooting. I think you identifying that and let’s just remember this, Nico is also playing for a contract. And I think like that’s another element where he can if he finds a role um and they can uh use that to like so basically we’ve identified in the back court Norm Pal and then now on on the wing if you have Yoic pop like those are two things that can really when we’re talking best case scenario because I think you kind of know what you’re getting from Bam and Tyler uh I think you could even get a better season than last year. I thought Bam obviously had kind of a weird season last year and there’s a chance for him to regroup and not have those weird moments like he had early on. You kind of know what you have everywhere else. So this is the thing about adding Norm Pal and then Nico finding a role. I think there was also a day and I I agree with you that that’s more important than what wear will ultimately um be for them this upcoming season. People don’t want to hear that but that is the way it is. I thought HZ was trending also as a guy that could need um that would have the opportunity to like harness a role particularly with Jimmy gone. He like had so much of those same skills it appeared and we just can’t count on any of that. So I think you’re right like you got to evaluate Nico know what you have because then you got to make a decision on if you’re going to pay him. All right, we’re going to go we’re going to go over the other side of the ball uh in a second and I also want to focus a little bit on Wiggins because again it’s how much of a needle mover are all of these things? I think that’s that’s what we’re getting into now. But before I get to the break here, do you see anyway if everything broke right for this team? Let’s say Hero replicates what he did last year, shows a little bit of growth around the margins, which is I think the most that you could really expect. Powell comes in, replicates what he did with the Clippers early last season. Bam is closer to the player offensively that we saw in the last sort of third of the season than we did in the first twothirds of the season. Wiggins while here um he’s not going to score 42 regularly like he did in that one game, but as a secondary sort of, you know, option creator, you know, coming off, you know, uh again, he’s coming off some of those actions, bending the defense a little bit, getting to the rim, getting to the li line a little bit more, hitting the mid-range if he is his best self, if they get the Yovic pop, even without Hakez necessarily, But, you know, they again they they get pretty decent play from some of these. Maybe Fonteio while he’s again, he could still be waved and stretched, he may not necessarily last the season, but maybe he shoots closer to what he usually shoots against the Heat than what he shot against the rest of the league last year. I mean, if all of those things happen, is there any way this is a top 10 offense? I think that that’s going to be really I mean they would have to basically the year that they were the one seed uh which I I’m referencing and it’ll make sense when we get to like what the win total can be for this type of team with Kyle Lowry that year if I remember correctly they were first in the league in three-point shooting. Uh they would need something like that. they’re gonna need to like um do something statistically like lead the league in three-point shooting percentage for for them to creep into a top 10 offense. I think I just don’t know that there’s enough creators even though Norm helps in that regard in a big way being able to go get a bucket and he is more athletic than some of the other guys they’ve had next to Tyler. Um I I don’t know that they can get to 10. You think Do you think they can? I don’t. I I think the only way that that it’s even conceivable is the three-point shooting, but I just don’t see the shooters on the roster for that to happen. That’s the problem. I I mean, Powell Hero, yes, I don’t think Vonteo’s minutes are going to be enough. I think DaVon slips back a little bit from three. Uh Bam, even if he continues to shoot the three like he shot towards the end of last season, the volume isn’t going to be there, I think, to affect it that much. And then I look at other guys that I just, you know, who may be rotation players. Heismith. Funny thing with Haywood is he tends to have these games where he’ll hit like three or four and then he’ll go through a stretch where it’s not that consistent. Larson still needs work on the shot. Hakez still needs work on the shot. And they’re they seem to be based on Spolster’s comment about him being a downhill player, which I I like that they’ve it seems like they’re going to try to get away from pigeon holeing him in the corner this year, which, you know, didn’t work very well. So, I look at all that I’m like, “All right, Yoic, I don’t think he’s going to be high volume, although he can shoot as a spot-up guy.” So, I just I don’t see that this this team is not going to be like the Golden State Warriors of Stephan Clay. I I don’t see that. And and again, the athleticism, the ability to get to the rim, they should uptick a little bit from last year, but they don’t have a Jimmy who can just put his head down and get to the rim, slow the game down that way. They don’t have a ton of athleticism. So, I don’t think that the fast break is going to be a place for a lot of easy points. So, you you add all this together, it’s going to have to be out of stuff that Spo’s. He’s going to have to come up with a game for this team. You know, you look at the 1617 team that were 31 in the second half. A lot of that was because he found this drive and kick game with with Dragitch and and Waiters and they just they just beat it to death basically. and they used James Johnson, you know, as a trigger man in the front court and a lot of that ended up being very effective. But, you know, last year he never found a game for this team. And this year he has he has the Powell piece now for and he has Wiggins for the entire season. There’s more to play with and he also knows Tyler can be efficient on high volume because he was last year. That’s all good, but there again there’s just there’s not a lot of bucket getters, you know, as compared to some other teams. So, I just think it’s going to be hard to get up to top 10, but I do think they can be top 10 on the other side. So, let’s talk about that in a second. Real estate shop flour on Instagram. Right now, it’s what are we recording this 11 o’clock on a Saturday. Amanda and Javier, they’re already at an open house. Um the three houses sold this week from what I saw on IG all over South Florida. If you want your house sold, we always talk about buying a house. you want your house sold. Inventory is starting to go up. Interest rates are obviously at a higher level than they were a couple years ago. It’s not the easiest process right now. So, make sure you work with professionals. We know that once you’re done with a house, you want to move, you want to move on, okay? You want to get, you know, you want to get what you can for it, move to somewhere else. They can help you on the sell side as well. So, buy, sell, rent, whatever it is you’re looking for. Real estate shopffl.com. It’s the Fort Lauderdale Realtor on Instagram. All right. So defensively, and it’s always been said, you you get you get Spolster and Bam and you’re already starting with a top 10 defense, right? So I don’t see them being worse than last year defensively. No. Um I mean, Love wasn’t playing. Kyle Anderson, Duncan, you’re not Jimmy was not really defend defending, right? So I don’t I don’t see them being worse. Now, I know that Norm’s there were critics of Norm’s defense in in the Clippers with the Clippers. If you go back to Toronto fans, they thought he was a better defensive player than Clippers fans thought he was. Uh, so that has has maybe slipped a little bit. He’s he’s 32, you know, he’s going to be 32 this season. So, part of that plays into it as well. I do think though that they can get an uptick from him there. He’s he’s been a capable defender over the course of his career for the most part. Um, so I think that that we know Tyler is what he is on defense and obviously he’s going to log a ton of minutes, but you have Davon for an entire season. Um, Larson in the rotation will help here. I I just he competes at a I mean I I really like watching him play like he just, you know, I I don’t think he’s going to be a star, but I I just think he is a rotation player on a good team. Uh, and and he’s going to get some of those minutes. Bam is still Bam. Heismith is still here. I did not think Haywood had his best defensive season last year, but you obviously know he’s capable as a defender. Um, Yovic positionally, I think, has gotten much better. And then there’s the wear factor here. Uh, we haven’t talked a lot about Kell on this episode. We did a lot last week. How much difference do you think it makes if if I don’t know if he does the little things? if he does the little things, which they want him to do, which is part of defense is boxing out on the defensive glass, right? So somebody else can get the rebound or going up with two hands or second effort or all that kind of stuff. How much do you think it matters? And can can they project if he’s at his best self playing with Bam, can they get a top five defense out of this? Top five is is a big ask, but I think that like you’re leaning in the right direction. And I think that that’s the vision is that basically Bam and Spoke can get you to top 10 or top 12 maybe we’ll say. Um and then it’s about what else can everyone do? And I think Andrew Wiggins has a has a interesting uh role in this defense if he’s going to actually be here and be 100% in uh entrenched in what they do all the way to, you know, past the trade deadline. I think that that that’s a defensive piece that Spolster maybe didn’t have last year that we could see him utilize more. He’s going to trust Haywood. Um and the wear thing like to your point the and I think you’re leaning in the direction where you think maybe that it’ll be a Bam Nico front court maybe. Am I that’s I’m sensing that from you and I think a lot of fans maybe want to see the two bigs come back in Wear and Bam even though it ended so bad with the Cleveland Cavaliers series. Uh I think most people want to continue to see that and um if wear can do the little things like be where you’re supposed to be on defense like Spolstra is not going to play you if you can’t be where you’re supposed to be. And so it’s those little things that if he figures that out, the the defense has upside. I don’t know that it has top five upside. I feel like Yeah, I’m trying to take my Homer hat off here and say that maybe the top eight, something like that. That like that feels like the peak of this. Yeah. And I think that the part about where is uh I I think he probably will start by the way. Um, I I would just lean into I would lean into the Yovic lineup, but I I I think he ultimately will start cuz I think Bam wants it that way and they committed to the end of last season. So, it’s going to appear like a step back if they don’t do it that way. The reason I think Yovic should start is I just think it roster balances better because they don’t have a backup big. Yeah. So, I I I get it. You’re staggering. You’re going to do all these different things. Maybe it really doesn’t matter that much, but like the idea of Yovic as your backup five. Like I I don’t I don’t know. I like to me, you start Yoic at the four, this is a different starting lineup than he started with last year because again, it’s Wiggins instead of Jimmy and it’s if it’s if Norm’s starting, which we’re assuming it then it’s Norm instead of Terry. And I thought a big problem for Yoic last year was he got lumped in with Rosier and he was the one that was yanked from the starting lineup at the beginning. So again, there was never any way to really get comfortable because the starting lineup didn’t work which we thought it wouldn’t work and then and then you know I I then again and Nico got hurt later in the season and everything else. Um, I I would have him starting at the four with this group because I think that allows you to play Hero and Powell more off the ball because if Yoic can handle just a bit of the creation uh in terms of uh you know starting sets with him then you can you can run Hero and Powell off more things. So that’s why I I think that I wasn’t necessarily looking for them to run Rosie off more things and you knew Ros was going to overdri it but now you don’t really have that. So, I just feel like there’d be more of a free flowing. It feels to me like they could create more and I know we’re pivoting back to defense here in a second, but they could create more of a COVID year offense if they put which remember there was a lot of ball movement and body movement. like they were really humming and then they kind of fell apart right before the co break and then they sort of got it back in the bubble and dragage had a lot to do with that obviously and they don’t have dragage but they have mini dragage maybe but he’s looks like he’s two three years away uh at least so if if you’re looking at creating that kind of offense I think having Yic in the starting lineup would assist with that uh but I do think they’re going to I think the way this is going to play out is they’re going to come to camp basically telling Khell he needs to earn it and then they’re going to say he earned it and then he’s the store next to Bab in the starting lineup uh in in the front court and Yoic will end up being the sixth man. That that’s what I think is going to happen. It’s not necessarily the way I would lean with the group as currently constructed. Um and I don’t think that the two-way Golden is ready to play minutes as a five off the bench. So, I don’t I don’t see that as being being an option. But back to the defense. They don’t have their best group of defenders they’ve ever had, but they have enough. I think and I think the big X factor here, and this is kind of why I saved him, is Wiggins, actually, because we didn’t get the Andrew Wiggins we were promised last year at the end. We saw some flashes offensively. The 42-point game, the 30 game was the defense was not what Golden State fans look, they love that guy in San Francisco, okay? And they still want him back. And I kept watching him last year and I’m like, well, why? Like, because you didn’t see it. And I then and then Small Sure came out and kind of gave voice to what we’ve thought which is that he kept saying well once Andrew gets comfortable once he gets comfortable once he gets comfortable and not just on the court but everything off the court I I think look the players when they when they are embraced by a market particularly after they were not really embraced before remember Wiggins came into Minnesota as a savior like he was one of the most balhood number one overall picks we’ve had in the past 25 years people were like you got to tank for this guy. And then so then what happens? Cleveland tanked because they didn’t have LeBron, right? They end they get Wiggins. The first thing they do is trade him. So unwanted there. Goes to Minnesota expected to carry the franchise. Doesn’t really do it. It took Jimmy coming in there to get them to the playoffs. Right. We know that Jimmy was hard on him as he can be on certain players. So, you’re dealing with a an introspective introverted guy, okay? Who was called Maple Jordan carrying like Canada on his back, all the rest of this, and then it doesn’t really he doesn’t really find a home, not Cleveland, not Minnesota. He gets out to Golden State and you know that that in organization will embrace you and Steph will embrace you and he ends up being like the second or third most important player in a finals that they win and then he’s traded. So I I get it that I don’t think it has anything to do with hating the Heat organization. I just understand like if you’re in that you’re you’re where you’re comfortable, you found your place, they just had a baby like all of that and then he comes to Miami in the middle of a season and he’s not Jimmy but he’s wearing Jimmy’s number. Like I all of that I I can understand how that would throw you off. Okay. But the end result was not good enough. Like the defense was not there on a consistent basis. And if you look at the roster they’re putting together, they need him. He’s the glue, right? He’s the guy who’s going to guard those guys because you don’t want you don’t want Tyler doing it, right? And Norm, you want him focusing mostly on the offense. Andrew Wiggins is their he he’s going to be their stopper. That’s what he has to be. Uh Bam obviously will clean up a lot of messes and then we you know again you hope where does it but that see I think if Andrew Wiggins plays like the Andrew Wiggins that that that he has at times defensively he gets back to that level. Some of the metrics by the way were not as bad as the eye test was was like his there’s some metrics on him defensively that are that are pretty decent from last year but I Greg I think if they get there I think they can be potentially in that five to eight range defensively and then we’ll get after that’s what the records are. That is the I mean you if it’s not Wiggins who’s your wing stopper like who is it? Is it Haywood Highmith? Are you going to rely on him that much? You have DaVon to be your point of attack defender kind of you know with those quick players and um he can even guard up at times but I mean he can’t guard that much up. Do you know what I mean? Like there’s a there’s just a uh there’s a cap to the size there. Uh, so I I think Wiggins and then obviously health like this is a we’re we’re taking all this for granted and that there’s just enough health for all of this to to work itself out. I think that’s what can push a Bam and Spo foundation into, you know, and maybe I’m just being like, you know, picky and splitting hairs between a top five and a top eight defense, but like just even being one of the best defenses in the league, it’s going to take somebody out on the perimeter on the wing with some um size uh and and just being able to guard guys like that. Who else is it on the roster? like we these are the two things Ethan when we look at this team and we’re going to kind of tie a bow on on this how what the best of it looks like uh record-wise in a minute but like when you look at a lot of this stuff it’s going to rely on shooting and it’s going to rely on wing defense and it’s going to rely on guys that they’ve brought in like so you really are counting on Wiggins and counting on Norm Pal counting on DaVon Mitchell to all come back and be uh their best selves for this to come together. Uh like you have to have all the stars align essentially. Yeah. And and will that all happen? I mean, I think the counter to this on the defensive end is going to be well, they didn’t a lot of these players were here and Cleveland got whatever they they turned Ty Jerome uh into a superstar and then in that playoff series against Cleveland and then Ty Jerome couldn’t do anything against Indiana and you’re kind of like, okay, well maybe we are hope trafficking and all this. I I think they have pieces to be a good defensive team. We just didn’t see it at the end of of last year and it is what Spo’s going to drill on them. No question that they’re going to start this camp and just drill defense. I’d show all those open looks that Cleveland had cuz that it was it was gross. And you know that he did he pulled Wear off the floor. Wiggins had a horrible series. Tyler was hunted. Uh it was all the worst possible scenarios. In fact, we don’t even need to do that episode. You and I could just literally just roll the Cleveland tape. This is what this looks like at it at its worst. Uh best case scenario for this team. Um I I might throw Well, I’m not going to do it, but I might recommend if you’re ever going to bet on Eric Sper to be coach of the year, this might be the one to do it. And I saw he’s like 35 to1 only because it’s going to require him to to really kind of reverse what has been a little bit of a downward trend over the past couple years. And also there’s not an expectation of success for this team that there has been at least when you had Jimmy on the roster even if you weren’t getting motivated Jimmy or you know you know connected Jimmy or any of that kind of stuff that there there really is not a feeling from the national media that this team really has you know much to offer this year. They feel there’s a they’re in, you know, if you listen to people, they’re kind of in this, you know, nether world and all this. And the norm trade was kind of universally even Kevin Oconor, the biggest hate heater on the planet, uh, like the Norm Powell trade. How could you not? Like, I mean, what we’re expecting 20 and 10 from K Love this year. So, I mean, that’s that out of the way. Um, I think everybody agrees that was a good move, but I still don’t believe that there’s a consensus in any way that that they’ve chosen a direction completely or that it’s going to go, you know, all that well. That’s the perception you get from national media. So, if that’s their perception, right? And there’s also a perception that Spo’s a great coach. So, if they were to get to this total, I think there’s a chance he’s top three and coach of the year. I could see if all of this broke, right? If Norm was the norm they that he looked like last year. Okay. And uh and I think he fans are really going to like him just generally personalitywise all kinds of everything I’ve heard about him is positive. Uh if where you know takes this to heart, takes a step, if you find a role for Yoic, if DaVon Mitchell defends the way he defends and just shoots something reasonably close to what he shot last season. If they find another, you know, decent rotation player here, I think Larson may be the one that we’re looking at the most. Uh, if Bam doesn’t get off to the crazy slow start that he got off to last year and if Wiggins is engaged and defends, could this team win 47? I I think that’s safe. I I’m glad that you didn’t say uh something outlandish like 52 or something like that because I want to remind Heat fans since the last year of the big three. So, and and you I remember you mentioned this. They went 54 and 28 in that last year of the big three, and they were basically they they hated that season if I if I could sum it up. Found it. But they squeezed out 54 wins. The Heat have only won 50 games once since then, and that was that year that they were the one seed with Lowry and um and Jimmy and Bam. But it was Kyle kind of leading a a skeleton crew for a little bit of the season. That’s the only year they’ve got to 50 wins. So I think we need to just be careful. I think 47 is one win better than in 23 24 they uh were 46 and 36. I think you’re probably in the range. It’s probably 47. It’s maybe 46. Let’s just say 46 to 48 is probably like the range of the best that you can get from this team and then you just got to hope that they get good matchups in the playoffs uh or something like that. I just I don’t see 50 wins from this group. That that’s just it. There’s not enough. I think I think most people are going to think we’re we’re a little high with the the 46 to 48, too. I And I that’s best case, though. This is absolute best case. Like this everything would have to break right. I think for them to get there. I I just uh and when we do the worst case one, you know, you’re gonna see what our range is here. And I actually think it’s most likely that they’re going to be somewhere in between and probably in the same kind of spot that they’ve been in the past couple years. 47 would get them maybe even a four seed in this conference. I right. I mean I New York, Cleveland, Orlando. It’s kind of the three teams that people are talking about. I did you look at that Milwaukee roster. If you X out Giannis on that roster, that’s a horrible roster. Okay. The the Celtics obviously have gone backwards. Atlanta should be better. Um that that is that is the one team I think may have sort of worked its way out of this sort of lower middle uh with some of their moves. We’ll see how they all pan out. Toronto, I don’t think has a clear direction. Now they’ve fired their GM. I don’t know what they’re going to do now as they head up towards a trade deadline. It’s a It’s the conference is as bad as it’s been, honestly. And it’s been bad for 25 years for the most part. Okay. I mean, LeBron carried it for a long time. It It’s not there anymore. And uh so yes, if you if you even honestly if you got to 44 wins, that might get you a four seed. And by the way, 44 gets you got you a six seed in this last year and that was like the there was a tier where like uh New York, Indiana, and Milwaukee all were in the 51 to 48 win range and then it dropped to 44 wins with Detroit at the six seed. So 47 I feel like we we’ve kind of put them exactly where I think if all all things went well, you’re looking at maybe a five seed. Yeah, I don’t think it’s happening. But but you know, it would be it would be nice uh if if they look I here’s the other part of it. I think they won 42 games in the 0304 season that we’re always referencing, which was the season where they their young players popped and of course then they converted that to Shaq in the off season. Uh and that team was a four seed, wasn’t they? 42 and 40. That was when the East was really bad. I don’t know that the East I mean maybe this is the year that the East is I I I don’t think I don’t think the East has been this bad and I’ll have to look at the 0304 and and so what was on those rosters, but I I think this could be a historically bad year for the conference. It’s just everybody blew out their Achilles. I mean, what is Indiana going to I don’t even know what Indiana’s going to try to accomplish now. I mean, they don’t have Turner or Hallebertton, so Nemhart Matan, they’re going to get a lot of a lot of looks. They had some interesting young players on that roster. They could look, I guess, a little bit like that Heat team did from 03, but I don’t I don’t know. It’s traded their pick in the in one draft to make sure that they had their pick for next year and it was the most genius thing they could have done because now they actually can can control um at least or if they can control what happens, at least they have their pick. And the thing to consider here is that the Heat will always try to win games. As we know, some of these other teams will not. They have a different philosophy. And so, if you have a roster that looks like some of these other rosters in the East, but you’re more inclined to push forward, then you may finish ahead of some of those teams simply because they’re not even really trying to, right? And so, there are wins to be picked up. And that that’s why yes, my 47 number is feeling really high to me actually. But you’re playing all these East teams more than you’re playing the West teams. So there’s a lot of there’s a lot of games where you’re going to go in and you’re not going to be out talented. And if the coach is refreshed and finds a style, then you can win them. But I 47, but I probably honestly should have said 44 the more that I think about it. But we’ll get to the other episode. Uh, and we’ll see where that one goes. All right. Thanks, Greg. Appreciate it. Real estate shop flicks. Use that code fi. Thank you for listening to the five on the floor on the five reason sports network. After all, someone needs to listen to my dad.

If all goes right, in every way, how many games can this current Miami Heat roster win? Ethan Skolnick and Greg Sylvander make their predictions, based on growth from several players and a coach finding the right roles.

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