Brooklyn Nets’ win projection PLUMMETS to bottom of NBA | Are Sportsbooks underestimating Brooklyn?

Brooklyn Nets’ win projection PLUMMETS to bottom of NBA | Are Sportsbooks underestimating Brooklyn?

Coming up, the NBA’s first overunder win projections are out. Where do they project the Nets to finish? I’ll answer that after this. You are Locked on Nets, your daily Brooklyn Nets podcast, part of the Locked on Podcast Network, your team every day. Welcome in to the Lockdown Nets podcast right here on the Locked On Podcast Network. It’s your team, the Brooklyn Nets, every single day. I’m Eric Slater, Brooklyn’s beat reporter for clutchoints.com. Thank you for making me your first listen of the day. The show is 100% free on all those great platforms. On today’s show, I’m going to be breaking down where the Nets are projected to finish and the first overunder win projections for this coming season. I’ll analyze whether the sports books have it right and how the number could reflect Brooklyn’s goals. And these numbers came out last week. First over under win projections for the 202526 campaign. And they pegged the Nets to be at 20.5 wins was the number that FanDuel sports book and several other sports books had it set at and that was tied with the Washington Wizards for the second worst number in the league. The Utah Jazz are last in the league. to only team behind the Nets and Wizards and they are at 18.5 wins. And my first reaction was this is about where I expected the Nets to come in on the opening win projections. It’s it’s one win higher or two wins higher depending on what point you looked at the number last season. I think the lowest number that the Nets have entering last season was 18.5 wins which was the lowest in I think 30 years for the Nets organization and that was crushed by them um during that campaign. And last year when we came in and it was set at 18.5 wins at one point, I remember thinking that that felt really low for the talent that the Nets had on that roster. And I fel I remember thinking that it was probably set with the expectation that it was going to be a tanking season for the Nets. They were going to have that agenda and they were going to move off some of their talented veterans sooner rather than later. Whether it be Dennis Shruder, Cam Johnson, Dorian Finny Smith, they were going to get off those guys and prioritize stacking losses. So they set it at 18.5 and then the Nets open the year 9 and 10. They’re, you know, almost halfway, they are halfway to that 18.5 number, you know, a few weeks into the season and then they clear that number with two months left in the regular season. They got to 19 wins and they had a little bit to say about that. And I think a lot of that had to do to them holding on to those veterans like Dennis Shruder, DFS, and obviously Cam Johnson longer than the sports books probably had anticipated. So this year the sports book the sports books bump it up from 18.5 to 20.5. So it’s a couple wins higher. But I think that that is a you know reaction to them being so off last year while still understanding what the goals are and what the influx of young talent and young draft picks is going to look like for Brooklyn this coming season. So 20.5 third worst or tied for the second worst in the NBA this season. I think that’s about where I would expect it to be, where I did expect it to be for the Nets entering these first numbers coming out. And I think it’s a number that I would expect them to hover right around. And there’s several reasons for that. And when you look at what I just outlined, the Nets jumping out to that hot start, that nine and 10 start last year and just clearing that win projection super early with two months left in the season. A lot of that was stemming from that hot start. And who led that hot start? It was Dennis Shruder and Cam Johnson were the two main contributors to that hot start last year. And really in the beginning of the year, mostly Shruder because Shruder was the guy handling the ball. He was the guy leading the Nets offense. Even at points, he was the guy leading the Nets defense, pressuring 94 feet and doing a lot of those things that Jordi Fernandez had been talking about entering his first year as an NBA head coach. And you look at just taking that away, taking away Shruder’s ball handling, what he did at the beginning of that year, because I think a lot of people didn’t expect Dennis Shruder to perform the way that he did at the beginning of that year. That was a career best start for Shooter. He was averaging like 19 points per game, was shooting near 50, 40, 90, if not above, was probably at six or seven assists, was keeping the turnovers low. He was really just playing like an elite level. We got three weeks of that season where Dennis Shruder looked like one of the best point guards in the league. It was not an exaggeration to say that. So when you had that level of shot creation, facilitation, three-point shooting, veteran ball handling, leading the offense with some of the pieces the Nets had around him with, you know, Cam Johnson and DFS as veteran wings, with Nick Claxton at center, with Don Sharp playing or Don Sharp missed the beginning of the year, but with some of the guys that they had as supporting pieces around Shruder and around that highle veteran ball handling, you were going to get some wins. You also had them just playing extremely hard under a first year head coach, Jordy Fernandez. So now you take out Dennis Shruder, that veteran ball handling. Even later in the year, the Nets replaced him with D’Angelo Russell. So really at every point in the season or for the majority of the season, the Nets had a veteran ball handler in the lineup, a veteran point guard in the lineup, a table setter, a guy who could get things organized. And now you look at them taking away Dennis Shruder, JAngelo Russell obviously departing and going to the Dallas Mavericks. Who is the veteran point guard, the veteran ball handler on this roster? Cam Thomas, I guess you could say, you know, he’s obviously unsigned and restricted free agency, but if you bring him back, he is that veteran ball handler that I guess you can lean on, you know, fifth year in the league. I don’t think anybody considers Cam like a seasoned vet, but that guy who has some experience and has some shot creation ability, but outside of that, if you’re looking at true point guards and who’s going to be setting up and, you know, getting this team organized and looking at how they’re going to be comprised offensively, it’s rookies. I mean, they brought in obviously Jory. They brought in Nolan Troy, Ben Sarath, and when you have three rookie ball handlers or three rookie point guards as the only point guards on the roster, that is a recipe for some chaos, a little bit obviously more of a developmental track with turning the page, making five first round picks, an NBA record in this year’s draft, and prioritizing really committing to the full rebuild and a little bit of a youth movement and a build through the draft for the first time since the team has been in Brooklyn. When you have rookie ball handlers like that, you have guys like that trying to lead an offense. Traditionally, they struggle a lot with the move the transition from college or international play wherever they were to the NBA level. It is a massive step up. I think for Jory, you saw a little bit of that at summer league as a ball handler. You saw similar struggles from Ben Saraf and Nolan Troy in certain areas. And when you have those guys trying to do that and being leaned upon potentially heavily as guys who are going to be handling the ball a lot in an offense, I think that that’s a recipe for some losses. And I think that that’s going to lend itself from a slower start than what we saw from the Nets last season. And I think it will have them kind of in this range of being towards the bottom of that win column from the jump as opposed to last year when they started out nine and 10 and they were in the middle of the pack. And in terms of the lottery odds in the tank race, they were really playing catchup for the rest of the year. I do not think that is going to be the case this season. And you know, with those rookie ball handlers coming in, them getting reps is going to be important. So I expect the Nets, maybe those guys will spend certain of the draft picks will spend some time in the G-League next season. But I would expect the ball handlers to be getting a lot of reps with the Nets because you have that luxury this season. You have no expectations. You’re a team that’s coming in. And I think a lot of the fans are bought in in the developmental track that they’re on and building through the draft for the first time in this Brooklyn era. So getting those guys reps and not really having to worry about, you know, the wins and the losses so much because you are mired in the beginning of a rebuild, that is somewhat of a luxury. And I would expect the Nets to take advantage of that and give these guys those reps. So when you look at the Nets getting rid of Dennis Shruder, getting rid of D’Angelo Russell or not getting rid of D’Angelo Russell just departing and bringing them in and replacing them with rookies, obviously I think Shruder and DLO to the rookies is going to be a downgrade in terms of production, in terms of just composure and the things that you want to be able to play competent offensive basketball. And then you look at the other positions. You got rid of Cam Johnson. You brought in Michael Porter Jr. I think, you know, a lot of people probably think that they’re in a similar tier of players. You have to remember that Cam Johnson had a career best season last year. He was playing at an elite level. He was at 19 points, three or four assists, 504 90 for the year. Do I expect Michael Porter Jr. to play at that level? Michael Porter Jr. could have a great season and still not play at that level. So, I think that the production that we see from MPJ most likely is going to be a downgrade from what we saw from CJ last year. And then you look at Dorian Finny Smith being sent out the door and Terrence Man coming in replacing him as a salary dump as that other veteran. I think people would consider that a downgrade as well. So just across the board on the roster, there are downgrades. There could be some upgrades with guys getting healthy and what is the depth chart ultimately going to look like and what can fans expect to see rotationally? I’ll touch on that after a quick break. But before that, want to tell you about our friends over at Monarch Money. Ever wish managing money felt easier? With Monarch Money, it can. Whether you’re growing your savings or planning a big purchase, Monarch puts you in the driver’s seat. It’s like having your own personal CFO, giving you full visibility and control over your finances. 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Coming back from the break on today’s locked on Nets episode, talking about the NBA’s first overunder win projections for the 202526 season. The Nets coming in at 20.5 wins is their projection that is tied with the Washington Wizards for the second worst in the league only ahead of the Utah Jazz who are at 18.5 wins. And when you look at Brooklyn’s depth chart, I just outlined the kind of shift from the veteran experience they have particularly in the ball handling department to the young guys. It’s not too hard to see why the Nets obviously came in around that number. You look at the depth chart of what’s going to be this season. Obviously, it could change. We don’t know what the lineups and the rotations are going to be. The only thing we do know is that Jordy Fernandez said that it’s going to be on him to get all of the rookies reps. A lot of people were surprised that the Nets made five first round picks because how do you develop all those guys at one time? How do you get them all minutes? Nobody’s ever done it before. Made five first round picks in one draft. Nobody’s ever made more than three. So, Jordy Fernandez said it’s going to be on him. He said he’s most likely going to be a 10-man rotation this coming season. I wouldn’t surp be surprised if they went deeper than 10man uh 10 guys on a lot of nights. But when you look at just the projected starting lineup for this team, I think right now you could probably put it at Jory, Cam Thomas, assuming he’s back, which everybody expects him to be. Terrence man, Michael Porter Jr., Nick Claxton. I think that’s the five that just makes the most sense from having some blend obviously of the youth with Yman in with some experienced guys. I think that there will be a lot of shakeup in how these rotations work. So I said Gman Thomas man Porter Jr. Claxton that is not a highle starting lineup. There is not a lot of shot creation in that lineup. If you’re looking at what Jagor you know his struggles are as a ball handler and what we saw from him at BYU and at summer league. The knock on him was that he obviously was a guy who struggled handling the ball, struggled handling ball pressure. We saw that at summer league. Doesn’t create a lot of separation as a dribbler. needs to get a lot stronger and add a lot of muscle to his frame to be able to compete with these NBA level defenders and the physicality that they’re going to bring. So, he’s not a shot creator. You have Cam Thomas is going to be shouldering an extremely heavy burden. And then you have Terrence Man who’s not a shot creator. Nick Claxton’s not a shot creator. And Michael Porter Jr. is kind of a swing guy where he’s going to be playing off the ball a lot. Obviously, he’s getting a lot of three-point looks off the catch. But we also heard from him at summer league about how he’s excited to expand his game and try to do some things. And the implication obviously being there that that’s going to be more shot creation, probably more on the ball looks, more pick and roll sets potentially trying to do some of the stuff that we didn’t see him doing in Denver with Nicole Yogic and um Jamal Murray dominating the ball handling responsibilities there. But still, even if Porto Jr. can improve a little bit, you’re getting Cam Thomas, a guy who’s an elite shot creator but is not an elite playmaker whatsoever, you have um him, you know, and then you have Michael Porter Jr. the two guys that are really going to be lead heavily upon offensively to be offensive engines. That’s not going to cut it. That’s not going to be a recipe for success in my opinion. And then you look beyond that starting five and at the bench, the only really proven guys that you have I feel like are going to be rotation guys from day one are probably Dron Sharp, Noah Clowny, Zire Williams. All interesting players I think. But not shot creators either, any of those guys. And then beyond that, if you look at who the rest of the shot creation is going to be outside of the starting five, you have Nolan Troy, Ben Saraf, Danny Wolf, more rookies. So the Nets are just going to be at an extreme shot creation deficiency. And from the bench perspective, I think that their bench is probably going to struggle a lot because this team is not deep in terms of shot creators or veteran guys who have done it, especially in the ball handling department, and feel comfortable doing that. It’s just a lot of youth. It’s a lot of inexperience. So, when you’re turning away from those non-ACam Thomas MPJ minutes, the guys that you’re going to be leaning on to handle the ball and do a lot of those things are either rookies who are inexperienced or they’re guys who maybe have a little bit of experience but aren’t super high level when you talk about Keon Johnson, uh maybe Tyrese Martin gets in there. They’re still going to be fight, you know, fighting for the backend roster spots with the Nets. I’m going to touch on that on an episode later this week. But outside of Cam Johnson, outside of Cam Thomas, excuse me, and MPJ, there’s just not a lot of shot creation. When you get to those second units, I have a feeling that unlike last season, I think this Nets team is probably going to struggle a lot comparatively to some of these other teams because I think those second units are just going to feature a lot of youth, a lot of in inexperience for this Nets team. And I think that it’s going to be good because you’re going to get a lot of guys minutes and things along those lines, but it’s not going to be a recipe for success. I also think outside of just the rotation conversation obviously a lot of this over under win total and where the Nets are set this season is you know stemming from what their goals are ostensibly. So you think that last season we saw them come into the year we knew that or we had a strong indication that it was a tank season. It was going to be a draft position emphasis on where they were going to finish. They came out hot. They eventually did place a little bit more of an emphasis on their draft positioning trading Dennis Shruder and um you know Dorian Finny Smith. They traded Dennis Shruder the first day they were able to when the free agents from the past season were eligible to be traded on December 15th. They got the Anthony Melton back was a guy who had signed the prior year because they were um emphasizing getting back expiring contracts. So they moved off him as soon as they can. They waited a little bit less longer for DFS. Then later in the season, you saw them resting some guys and kind of putting a little bit more urgency on trying to get that draft position back to where you probably hoped it was going to be. But they fell to the sixth best odds obviously and then the eighth best pick this year with where they are compared to, you know, when they made the trade with the Rockets last year. You look at them them giving up those Phoenix picks to the Rockets and getting back their own picks this year and next. Uh last year and this year, they finished with the eighth pick this year. The Rockets um finished with the 10th pick, which obviously went back to the Suns in the KD trade, but they only went up two spots on that trade. And they gave up what was essentially four picks for two. So, if you only got a two spot jump in that draft last year, this coming season, you are going to hopefully try to be doing it right in terms of the tanking and you’re going to try to get your pick as high as possible and really justify what you gave up in that Rockets trade with giving up those four picks for two. So this year I think there should be an expectation that they’re going to go at this a little bit I don’t know if you would say more aggressively or a little bit more of the right way in terms of you know what is maximizing your chances of having the highest pick possible. Last year they didn’t necessarily do that. I think a lot of that was stemming from them trying to get back at spiring contracts and the trades for guys like Shruder and DFS as they ultimately did. But this year they bring in five rookies. They don’t bring in a veteran ball handler. Obviously, there’s still time in the offseason left. They have 22 million in cap space left. We’ll see what they do with it. But not having a veteran point guard on the roster to me is really a telltale sign that this is a developmental year. That’s where the emphasis is. And we’re expecting those guys to get a lot of minutes and work through the kinks. And whether they win or whether they lose, you know, that’s not really the emphasis. The emphasis is development and in turn obviously draft position. So I think that is probably baked into this 20.5 number as well. So, while Nets fans, I think, should be ready for a developmental season, which will mean a lot of losses, I think that it’s going to be a lot more fun to watch than it was this past season, which was not an exciting year whatsoever. Why do I think it’s going to be more fun? I’ll touch on that after a quick break. Coming back from the break, closing out today’s Lockown Nets episode, talking about the NBA’s first overunder win projections for the 202526 season. Brooklyn coming in at 20.5, second worst in the league, only two wins higher than the Utah Jazz, who are the worst in the league. And I said that while I think that this number is pretty on the nail, I would expect the Nets to be somewhere around it when it’s all said and done. And I would expect the Nets to be towards the bottom of the league in wins to maximize their draft positioning and really take advantage of that um you know getting their pick back and that trade with the Houston Rockets unlike last year when they only had a two spot advantage from where that Phoenix pick that they gave up landed. I think that this is going to be a fun season in regard especially you know comparatively to what we saw last year and the reason being this is the true this is the first true developmental build through the draft type season you know that we’ve seen in the Brooklyn era like we’ve seen them obviously draft guys and bring them in and try to develop them but never to this degree since we’ve been you know in Brooklyn the Nets have not made a lottery pick first lottery pick since 2010 when the Nets obviously missed out on John Wall and took Derek favors Then Derrick Favorvers got traded 35 games into his rookie season for Darren Williams. So since their Nets, since the Nets’s last lottery pick, Derek Favors, it was immediately after that the pivot to D will and then Joe Johnson and then KG and Paul Pierce in that era. Then obviously imploded, went into the rebuild, the spunky rebuild team, and then it went back into KD, Kyrie Harden. Since that 2010, which the Nets never even saw that pick through with Derek Favors and building through the draft that way. Since then, they’ve never done it. It’s all gone quick fix, rebuild, another quick fix. Now, they’re back into the rebuild cycle and they’ve really, unlike those past cycles, committed to the rebuild and building through the draft by making five first round picks in this draft. So, all of those guys, you know, um Gman, Troy, Saraf, uh Drake Pal, Danny Wolf, I would expect them all to get playing time. Is it going to be easy to get all of them minutes? No. So, I wouldn’t be surprised if some of them play some stretches in the G-League next year, but I would expect them all also to get stretches in the NBA. And from a Nets fan perspective, regardless of the wins of law, regardless of the wins or losses, that is going to be exciting because you’re seeing young homegrown guys that you have hope can turn into highle rotation pieces. Guys who were taken high in the draft in some of the cases. You know, Domen and Troy are the highest draft picks that Shawn Marx has made in his time as GM since 2016. So, you’re seeing something that as a Nets fan, a lot of you haven’t seen in, you know, in Jan’s case really ever. Like we, the Nets, we haven’t seen many lottery picks in the last two decades. You’re seeing that you’re seeing all these other guys who I think would have gone higher. You know, you have 19, 22, 26, 27 in the last four picks, but this was a highle draft and considered one of the deepest drafts of the last two decades. So in other drafts, those guys go a lot higher. Where does Dolan Troy go in the 2024 draft? And how does that change the narrative surrounding who he is as a player? So having all of those guys on the court one time at one time or on the team together at one time and getting to manage and keep tabs on their development, you’re going to be looking for certain things that you want to see. And it’s going to go past the wins and losses. The wins and losses are not going to be a concern really. you know, it’s going to be a concern for some people monitoring where the Nets are in the draft lottery standings, but from the regard of worrying about it, it’s a luxury to not have to worry about that this coming season and get to lean into the development of drafted guys in a way that the Nets really haven’t done since moving to Brooklyn. So, I think you look at doing that as opposed to doing what we did last season, which was the conversation last season was all just surrounding the draft pick. there was not really any focus like Noah Clowney we’re looking at how he developed but last year it was all about the draft pick and it was all about you know a lot of complaints about how the Nets were handling you know the tank in their situation with them in the beginning of the season not trading Cam Johnson Dennis Shruder and Dorian Finny Smith the conversation at the beginning of the year was why haven’t they traded these guys when are they going to trade these guys we were all kind of waiting on that when they were winning too many games it was you know this is is this going to mess up the tank are they going to try to go for the playin all of that conversation and Then later in the year, once they traded Shruder in DFS, it became, you know, they had that winning streak during the second half of the season. It became, why is Cam Johnson playing in this game? Why is D’Angelo Russell playing in that game? Why aren’t these guys resting? When is the next injury report coming out? Who’s on it? So, all of that, moving from that to, you know, getting to monitor the development of five first round picks and some other young guys that you already have on the roster is far more exciting in my opinion and far more fun than what you got to do last year. And I think that in turn, I think they’ll also finish better than they did in the lottery standings last year because you’re just going to have a lot more organic losses for the reasons I outlined earlier in the episode with having a lot of rookie ball handlers and just a lot more youth in the rotation with some of the veteran departures they had. So all of that I think will lend itself to, you know, a more exciting season even if you lose more because you have, you know, the tabs to keep track of all of these rookie guys and what their development looks like and how they could potentially be as long-term fits with the Nets and whether they look like they’re going to have potential to be long-term rotation pieces as the Nets continue to build this out with the advantageous position they put themselves in, you know, from an asset perspective, from a cap space perspective, all of that. So I’d expect there to be a lot of losses. I think the 20.5 number for the win projection is pretty on the nose. I’d expect the Nets to be around, you know, those teams like the Wizards and the Utah Jazz and in that conversation, but for the first time in the Brooklyn era, you have these young guys to take a look at and to really see and potentially get excited about as guys who could be homegrown talents. Um, you know, first round picks, something we haven’t seen much during this Brooklyn era, especially since Shawn Marks has taken over. So, that does it for this episode of Lockdown Net. Thank you to all of you for tuning in and supporting the show. If you do not already, be sure to subscribe to Lockdown Nets on YouTube and wherever you get your podcast, whether Apple podcast or Spotify. If you enjoy my content, smash that like button, leave a comment. Anything you can do to engage is much appreciated. Let me know what you think about this overunder win projection at 20.5 wins. Is it too high? Is it too low? What are you rooting for? What are you trying to see throughout the year from this new look Nets roster? But I’m going to have more talk about all that. We still have more offseason stuff with the Nets having some cap space left, Cam Thomas’ contract, a lot of things that still need to get done. And I’ll have more coverage of all that when I’m back tomorrow talking more Brooklyn Nets basketball.

Erik Slater breaks down where the NBA’s first over/under win projections expect the Brooklyn Nets to finish next season. He analyzes how the team’s roster has changed since last season and what fans can expect in terms of wins and losses.

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