BULLISH – Keyonte George FUTURE route is CLEAR | Will Utah Jazz profit off Keyonte’s Growth

BULLISH – Keyonte George FUTURE route is CLEAR | Will Utah Jazz profit off Keyonte’s Growth

There are a lot of numbers that say no, but I’m saying yes on Keiante George’s Future next on Locked on Jazz. You are Locked on Jazz, your daily podcast on the Utah Jazz, part of the Locked On podcast network, your team every day. How are you? I’m David Lock, radio voice of the Utah Jazz Jazz NBA insider. This is Locked on Jazz, your daily podcast on the Utah Jazz, giving you insight, expertise, geeky numbers, and hopefully making it way better to be a jazz fan each and every day. Thank you so much for making Locked on Jazz your first listen to the day. We are free and available on all podcasting apps as well as on YouTube. Today we’re deep diving Keiante George and frankly you can find the numbers to tell the story you want to tell. I’m going to try the best I can to present in all honesty where the numbers sit, why I’m still bullish on his future and what I think that means he will be before it is all said and done. Uh, if I get to it, Bball Index released their alldefensive team, which I always think is interesting because I don’t think we really know how to judge defensive players in the NBA and we do it kind of on guess and they try to do it off a metric and so I thought it was actually unsurprising but worth mentioning. So, if I get to that, I will. All right, let’s start on a bunch of areas with key. So Keiante George in his first two years on the simple most straightforward statistics he has played 142 games he’s played a ton actually he’s at playing 30 minutes a night. It’s a huge amount of experience. It’s one of the reasons why I’m most excited about it and I’ll and I’ll get you that in a second. Each of the two years he shot 39.1%. and he shot 33% from three and 34% from three. And those numbers are not good enough. And the disconcerting thing, and the reason why I say the numbers say no, but I’m saying yes, is that’s not new. That’s what he did at Baylor also. He shot 38% from three and or 38% overall and 34% for three. for a guy whose shot looks terrific. His fundamentals look good. His footwork’s not great, but his touch and the ball doesn’t go in. It’s what I said last year this time about Keith. The ball just needs to go in. I keep looking at that free throw percentage though. 83% career free throw percentage. Ball should go in. It’s not like this is a player that doesn’t have touch. Baylor shot 79%. So that’s the first part is the shooting percentage has not been good enough. Part two is the turnovers. 2.5 his rookie year, 2.7 his second year. It’s a lot. He had the ball in his hands a lot. He was thrust into it. And if you go back to his college, he had 95 turnovers and 91 assists. He came to the pros with an assist to turnover ratio that was negative. Okay. The third thing that legitimately should have one concerned about Keante is his defense. If we go to dunks and threes, which grades a player, Keante defensive estimated plus minus last year was in the zero percentile that he was on the worst defensive team in the NBA, the worst defensive player, arguably making him the worst defensive player in all of the NBA. Let’s be perfectly honest. If this doesn’t straighten out, if he doesn’t come, which I’m certain he will to this season with a committed effort on the defensive end, then it’s over. His career will end alarmingly fast. He will be the same as half the picks after the 11th play or the draft who get a good run because they’re a first round pick and then very quickly are out of the NBA. I can give you the list, you know, wherever they are. This is a two-year phenomenon. At the end of the 2024 season, Keonte was third percentile in all defense. Let me tell you why I think this is going to fix itself. Two, Keiante is completely committed to being a great basketball player. This is not a lazy kid who’s uninterested, who’s totally selfish, who doesn’t care about anybody but himself, who’s just trying to put up points. I’m not going to say empty calorie turnovers because then I’m end up in a fight with Cam Thomas like Zack Loaded. Um, this is not a kid who’s uninterested in doing well, okay? This is not a bad kid. In fact, the growth I saw out of him as a human in 2025 compared to 2024 was really impressive. And this is an effort issue and a maturity issue. And he’s 21 years old. In November, he’ll turn 22. And I think we’ll begin to see the maturity and the commitment on the defensive end of the game. Will he be great? He’s actually got all the skills to be perfectly fine. He’s 6’4, 185 pounds and can hand I’m not actually he’s not lacking athleticism. So I’m not actually Yeah, I think he can be middle of the pack. Um if not better. Let’s just go over one or two things. This won’t and this is where he sits on Bball Ball Index’s player profiles. These I love these stats because this will begin to give you a profile of where he is today and then I’m going to show you where he ranks historically and then we’re going to look at where he’s improved. Okay. So, his perimeter shooting, despite the fact that he shot 34%. His overall gravity gets an A minus. His shot creation, he gets an A+. And I think that’s wildly important. That he can get his shot off whenever he wants off the bounce is a real impact. This is the number that I think we have to start to look at from Bball Ball Index or the stat that begins to tell us why he’s has a chance to get better. His three-point shot quality was an F. Now, is that a case of that Keonte George was taking bad shots and needs to take better shot selection? Yes. Or the case that he wasn’t playing with very good teammates and so he got stuck with bad shots? Yes. But when you look at his ability to get a shot off, A+, his three-point shooting talent, A minus. His three-point making, B minus. and his three-point shot quality, F. But his three-point pull-up talent, A, that’s a combination that can get a lot better. That’s one of the things that has me super excited about Key. The basic natural skill of being able to get shots off is better than what you would expect out of than than what most players can do. That is a big time step for Keonte George. I was trying to find his I prepped all sorts of stuff and of course halfway through I wanted something else. But if you look at his catch and shoot versus off the bounce three over the last two years, he’s one of the better off the bounce three-point shooters two years ago and as a rookie he was above average and then this last year it slipped a little bit but I think it slipped because he didn’t get as good a looks and he frankly has he kept 32.6% 6% on off the bounce threes, taking four a game, though. The year prior, Keant shot on off the bounce threes as a rookie, 34.5. That’s pretty good. So, if he gets back to that number, we’re in he’s in business. Okay, let’s look at a few other things. Um, I’m not really worried about him as a rebounder. He’s not particularly good. Finishing rim shot creation A minus. Drive foul draw rate A minus. Rim field goal percentage D plus. Okay, we’re starting to get into something here. Rim shotmaking efficiency B minus. Rim shot quality F. Finishing talent B minus. It’s why I love Bball Index and the way that they break these tools down. We’re going to get into what his shot distribution is per game here in a in a little bit. And it’s problematic, and this is going to be one of the keys. So, the first key we just talked about for Key to get going and to get better at these numbers is the fact that his three-point shooting ability to get the shot of is great. His shot quality is terrible. It might be teammates, might be where he’s been playing with. The other thing is that he his rim field goal percentage is bad and his rim shot quality is bad. He’s this these are these are the things that improve if you look at his efficiency his overall shot quality and we’re going to get into this more called B all index. We’re going to break this down third play is an F. So, here’s a young player that played 30 minutes a night, was thrust into action and had terrible efficiency. 39% from the field, 34% from three, below 40, below 35. We’ll touch on that in a second. His true shooting percentage is a D+. His effective field goal percentage is a D. His points per possessions a D minus. You can dive into all those stats and say no chance that this former 16th pick of the NBA draft is turning the corner, but when we start to dive into what we started to dive into right there, I think you see the route for Keonte George to get out of this and to get better. More on key as we continue on locked on jazz. Tuesday edition of locked on jazz is brought to you by Murdoch. So, recently I have had a bunch of Lockdown Jazz listeners email me and get set up. And I want to share I just got this email. Um, I hope Neil doesn’t mind. Uh, Neil sent me an email. He said, “I want to follow up my experience at Murdoch under my 21-year-old son needed a vehicle. Doesn’t have a ton of money. Out of curiosity, I went to Murdoch website, looked daw one that looked interesting. So, I texted Jake, who is our personal loan off uh personal Jacob Banks is our Murdoch Lynon VIP sales guy for you, and said, “Hey, text me. Tell me about this one.” Half an hour later, I had a personalized 360 video from Jake showing me the positive neg. And my son and I went to check it out later that my son liked it. We had other obligations, couldn’t stick around. We gave Jake one signature for the finance application and left. We went back the next day to finalize the purchase. We literally only at the dealer for about 30 minutes total before my son was driving home in his new car. Super simple, great deal on an older car. We didn’t have to spend a lot of time at the dealer waiting on paperwork. We knew Jake would and trusted would tell us if it wasn’t a great deal because he’d been upfront with me about previous vehicles and I’d asked him about super impressed, super easy to get a hold of Jake and he was super responsive and the finance guy told my son his warranty options and stuff. There was no pressure. Allound great experience. this is what we’re making sure happens for you as a lockdown listener with Murdoch Hyundai. He said also uh so that by the way is what we want to make sure the other stuff which Neil said nice things about me. I appreciate it. Um so this is what we’re doing for you. If you’re looking for a car, put Hyundai on the list. Check it out. You decide at the end. We’ll set you up with a VIP meeting at Murdoch Lyndon, Murdoch Hyundai Murray or up in Logan and make sure so Lyndon Murray and Logan and we’ll make sure that you get the VIP experience from your locked salesperson. Give you that experience, that type of touch point and see what’s like over at my hyundai. Email me at dlock09gmail.com. That’s [email protected] to make sure that we get you your VIP experience that you deserve by being a locked on everyday at murdoch. Today’s show is also brought to you by FanDuel. What’s going on with FanDuel? Well, it’s summer fun right now for you and there’s all sorts of deals. Here’s the biggest one. If you’re a new customer, you can bet $5 and get $150 in bonus bets if your first bet wins. That’s just at fanduel.com. Now, what are you doing this time of year? Well, baseball under the lights, golf on the greens, high stakes soccer actions, Euro Cup basketball’s around the corner. You’ve already following the action. 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And you start to look at it, it doesn’t look great. The guys who ended up Marcus Smart, Jamal Tinsley, Compazo, who played briefly for Denver, Raymond Felton, Contavius Caldwell Pope, and then it falls off hard and fast. Langston Galloway, Aman Shumpert, Fred Jones, Trey Burke, Andrew Harrison, Jared Bis, John Salman’s, Jamie Brener, Sasha Vuchich, Deanthony Melton, Cole Anthony, AJ Price, J.R. Smith actually had a career. Juan Dixon, Deawara, some Markeel Brown, Terry Roier had a career. Delane, Malcolm, Delaney, Dante Exom, Tyler Dorsy, Alexi Sched, Miles McBride, Nick Stskis, Paul Pressie, Daniel Ewing, Jordan Hawkins. Then you get to Key. Key is like the next one on the list here of like players of that stage. Jordan P. This is not a great Malik Monk, Jaylen Suggs. Those are guys who made it. There’s a lot of names in here. There’s 58 of them. Emanuel Moody, Nichollet, Frank Nilina, Bobby Brown, Rashard Vaughn, Junior Harrison, Deshawn Stevenson. It’s not great, but he has shot 11 threes per 100 possessions. And the only guys on this list who’ve done that are Malik Monk, Jordan Hawkins, Jordan P, and Keonte George, and Trey Man. So, suddenly it changed a little bit. And if you go look at effective field goal percentage, Keyy’s on the top end of this. So it feels a little better. Now if you give Kei a little bit more room, right? So let’s say instead of your field goal percentage being 39 and 34, we go to effective field goal percentage and we say Key’s effective field goal percentage in his career is 48%. Okay. So Keonte George effective field goal percentage so far in his career is 48.4. That’s not good. But we start to look at players whose effective field goal percentage is if we just round that up to 49. Like he’s 48.4. Round that up to 49. We’re in the ballpark. And he’s not played on good teams and he’s not had a lot of great shots. We just talked about that. Here’s what we suddenly have. Okay. Chris Paul, Dwayne Wade, Manu Genobbi, Brandon Roy, Tony Parker, Kirk Hinrich, Derek Rose, Darren Williams, Rajan Rondo, Chris Duhan, Gilbert Arenas, Russell Westbrook, Brandon Jennings, Ben Gordon, Bradley Beal, Tyreek Evans, Jason Richardson, Luke Riddenau, Devin Harris, Jared Jack. Now, this is all sorted by winshare and there are 165 players and I could generally go and find, you know, Keante ranks 120th in winshare and it’s that gets a little uglier. But when we start to look at just his shooting, his 48.4% he’s 26 on this list. The 26 guys who shot a little better than him are Matthew Delvadova, Tony Parker, Dererick Rose, Aaron Holidayiday, Bruce McGows, Nick Smith Jr. Cam Thomas, Randy Foy, Brandon Roy, Mike Connley, Jonathan Simmons, Ben McLemore, Darren Williams, TJ McConnell, Rashard Mccants, Monte Ellis, Jimmer Fett, Jared Jack, Frank Jackson, Patrick McCau, Nate Robinson, Jordan Hawkins, Jaden Ivy, Ben Gordon, Gilbert Arenus, and then right next to him is Mon Man Manui. It’s not great. Like there’s a real chance that this goes wrong, but you begin to see some routes here. If we go back to the B ball index on Keonte and guarded by matchup difficulty, in other words, the best defender on the other team guarding him, 87 percentile, guarded by a premier isolation defender, 89 percentile. So, Keant has been guarded by the best player on the other team. That’s why there was a minor uptick last year when he went came off the bench. So you start to look at key and his offensive rating on LeBron statistic is actually an A minus. His D is an F. His playmaking talent according to Bball index is actually at an A. His passing creation volume is an A. His passing efficiency is at a C minus. There’s a lot of things here that we’re beginning to see. His teammate experience age is an F. Experience is a D. True shooting percentage is a C++. On ball rate is, in other words, other guys can handle is an F. Right? He hasn’t played with good players yet. he’s probably not playing with good players, particularly this year with this young team. So, this has not been the greatest script by which for Keante to have massive success. But as you start to look at this, we can zero in on three or four things, and I’m going to get more into it in a second, that we can start to get. Okay. One-on-one game. Total isolation per 75 possessions. 92 percentile. He’s been forced to play a ton of one-on-one. And is he good at it? Not really. One-on-one shotmaking, an F. One-on-one shotmaking efficiency, an F. One-on-one shooting talent, an F. Okay, that’s not what he should be doing. He needs to play off the ball more, which we saw last year. He needs to get to the rim way more. We’ll talk about that in a second. He needs to get better shot quality because when he’s playing one-on-one and he has to take that step back three, it’s an F shot quality. His mid-range shot quality is an F. We talked about his three-point shot quality, an F. Some of this is him, some of this is the situation he’s been in. So when you start to look at him, I think you actually have a bunch of routes by which he can get better. And when you look at I’m going to literally give you specifics here in a second. And when you look at the next aspect of key, which is where he ranks historically, it can be looked at either of two ways, right? It can look at pretty the way we looked at it just a minute ago. can be either pretty desperately bad in that you look at those players who have shot below 40% from the field and below 34% from three and it’s pretty ugly. There’s no question. But if you spread it out a tiny bit and get into and give him the benefit of the doubt, it gets to be a little bit better. Okay, the real key haha is and I know is coach Chris Jones and him have been working on this is can he move his shots around because the biggest problem for Keonte George right now is that in onethird of his games last year he shot 33% or below. Let me make sure you got that right. It’s a stunning number. Keonte last year played in 67 games. Okay. In 26 more than more than it’s almost half in 26 of the 67 games Keiante George played last year, he shot 33% or below. It’s actually 39% of his games. you’re out of the league. Like, I’m not going to lie. Like, you do that 39% of your games, you’re gonna be out of league. Here’s the next number on it. We didn’t win a lot last year, so I’m not sticking this on key, but in those 26 games that Keonte George shot 33% or below, the Jazz were 1 and 25. 1 and 25. The one game we won, he only played 24 minutes. He only took eight shots. He went two of eight. He was minus 23 in that game and we won. Was against Minnesota. But when Key shoots 33% or below, we were 1 and 25. It’s death to your team. Here’s how he fixes it. Next on Locked on Jazz. The key to Keiante fixing that is where he shoots from. So right now if you look at Keonte George on a given night, sorry I just had it and it went away. Little playing with the NBA numbers is never always the easiest thing in the world. So if we look at Keonte George on a given night, this is his 13.7 shots and this is his general shot distribution. You know, I use every site in the world while I’m doing a show, and the one I kind of know will never ever ever come through for me is nba.com. It’s pretty cool. Um, so I will have to try to do this a little differently because NBA.com just decided didn’t want to load the page I want. So Keiant is taking 13.7 shots a game. Okay. Right now, on any given night, one shot made or missed sends him below 33%. Because his shot quality, not only on the type of shots, but where he’s shooting from is so bad. Okay, so Keonte right now is taking only 13% of his shots on a given night at the rim. He’s taking 30% of his shots as a short floater, 6% as a mid-range, 7% as a corner three, and 43% of his shots is above the break threes. Okay, 43. That’s That’s a hard number. So, the average So, the first one is he So, let’s call it six above the breakthroughs a game. Okay, he’s taking one corner three a game. Okay. Okay. Well, the corner three is a much better shot. At 13% of his shots at the rim on 13.7 shots a game, he’s taking on average 1.8 shots at the rim a game. You’re going to have to trust me here in a minute. We’ll call all mid-range. He takes 36% of his shots as mid-range shots. So, here’s the basic shot distribution of Keonte on a given night. We’ll just gonna round this out, make it a little easier, and get him to 14 shots. He takes six above the breakthroughs. The average percentage on above the break three in the NBA is about 35%. In fact, I could give you this exactly. And he’s taking six of them a game. And this is if Keonte takes 14 shots. Okay. The about the above the break three in the NBA last year was 36%. He takes one corner three game that’s 39%. He takes five mid-range shots. The short floater got much better last year. So that now actually this shot probably I need to even though I didn’t I probably need to break it up. So let’s call he takes one long two and he takes four floaters. The four floaters are at 44% now and the long two is at 41%. And he takes two shots a night at the rim at 66%. Okay, 12 of his 14 shots are either 39%, 36%, 44%, or 41%. He misses one of those extra and he shoots 33%. Right? Because if he’s shooting 14 shots in a night, let’s just kind of take this for a second, and he takes six above the break, this is geeky number stuff, but hopefully you’ll stick with me. If he takes six above the breakthrees and he shoots, it’s 36%. The chances are he’s going to go two of six, right? 33%. Two of six. That’s 33. The number is 36. You with me? He takes one corner three. He’s kind of make.3 of those or we can call it point4. So 190 makes one and 190 misses and that’s at 50% in overtime. But that’s his one shot. Okay. He takes five floaters. If he’s shooting league average at 44%. He goes two for five. That’s 40%. Right. And he takes one long two. That’s supposed to go that goes one every three nights. And he gets two shots at the rim. And he makes like one of two at the rim. Well, all of a sudden, what we’ve created out of Keiante is let’s say he goes one of two at the rim. He goes two of six on his long threes. He goes two of five on his floaters. He’s now five of 13. And now, does the long two go and the corner three go? Because if they don’t, he’s five of 15. It’s literally an average almost average night for him. One shot doesn’t fall and he goes 33%. So go back to the discussion we had at the very beginning of this on Keonte. F in shot quality, F in getting to the rim, but A in be able to get the shots off and A in his off the bounce. How do we slide Keonte’s shot distribution? Let’s say he still gets 14 shots. Can it become three rim shots? Can it become three floaters instead of five? Can it become five above the breakthrees and two corner threes? Okay, we’re now at 13 shots. There’s one more there. Ideally, ideally that’s another rim shot, but that’s doubling your rim rate. Probably unlikely. But if he suddenly starts to do this and now he’s taking two corner, let’s give it another corner three. He’s now taking more threes. Playing off the ball a little bit. Okay, now he goes one or two of three on the corner threes. Now he goes one or two of three on the floaters. He goes two of five on the above the breakthroughs. He goes two of three at the rim. And now all of a sudden with that little shift, we’ve increased him to 16 shots a night. We could probably bring it back down a little bit. Take it to 15. Give him only two corner threes. Now all of a sudden that’s seven of 15 or it’s six of 15 and it’s not 33% or below. Here’s the other reason to be bullish on key. There’s little subtle impact changes that help too. Keante’s turnover rate went from 16% to 13.9. So the three issues early were defense, shooting, and turnovers. Last year’s turnovers went from 9th percentile, 16% to 13.9 26%. That’s growth. His assist rate went from 26 percentile to 89 percentile for his position. 24 to 27%. Okay, this is the one I’m most excited about. He went from drawing shooting fouls on 11 10.9% to 12.4. Very high. That the foul drawing. Now you start to put in the foul drawing and a little bit better shot quality and you’ve got a really nice player. His rim percentage, which isn’t great, went from 59% to 61%. It got a little better. We’ll get better in year three. He’s stronger and understands it. He shot 50% on corner threes last year. Give him more corner threes. Let him play off the ball. For the last two years, he’s taken shot 32% on above the break threes. Not good, but they’ve not been good shots. that gets up to 35 or 36 because they’re better shots. One of those becomes a corner three. One of those floaters at 41% becomes a rim shot at 61%. And this little shift of maturity and understanding on his shot quality and his shot distribution because all the skills are there and it’s no longer an effing shot quality and you’ve got yourself a player and you either have yourself a really good six-man or you have yourself an off starting off guard in the NBA. I’m bullish on Keonte George and that is Locked on Jazz today. Hope you’re having a great one. Hope you enjoyed the show. See what your thoughts are. We’ll talk a little bit about some of the other stuff we saw in summer league as the week goes on. Right now you can follow me on my socials at Dlock09 or you can not follow me on the socials and be free of social media. Sounds awesome. Right now we’ll send you over to the first ever national 247 NBA channel, Locked in NBA on YouTube. Check out Locked in NBA on audio. It’s there for you every day, all off season.

David Locke, radio voice of the Utah Jazz and Jazz NBA Insider, challenges conventional wisdom on Keyonte George’s future. Despite concerning statistics, Locke remains optimistic about the young guard’s potential. He analyzes George’s shooting percentages, turnover rates, and defensive struggles, while highlighting promising indicators like free throw accuracy and shot creation ability.

Locke dissects George’s shot distribution and quality, proposing adjustments to improve efficiency. He emphasizes George’s commitment to improvement and potential for growth, particularly in defensive effort and shot selection. The podcast explores historical comparisons, offensive rating metrics, and the impact of George’s performance on team success. Locke concludes by outlining a path for George to evolve into either a valuable sixth man or starting off-guard in the NBA.

0:00 Intro: Analyzing Keyonte George’s future
5:14 Why George’s defense will improve
10:52 Statistical comparisons to other players
16:30 Effective field goal percentage analysis
21:42 Shot distribution and quality issues
33:44 Conclusion: Bullish outlook on George

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