Where Things Stand with the Keon Ellis Contract Extension in Sacramento

Where Things Stand with the Keon Ellis Contract Extension in Sacramento

Shoot, man. Shoot or shoot. As far as Keith Smith is concerned, you know, I reread this both notes on Keon Ellis and on Keegan Murray. And if you weren’t able to listen yesterday because life been, let me read you first the Keon Ellis part of it and then I will read uh the Keegan Murray part of it. Okay. On Keon Ellis and a possible extension. Uh, this is a Keith Smith article that he dropped and then promptly went on vacation. So, shout out to Keith Smith because he deserves it. Met him at Summer League. Great guy. Can’t wait to have him back on the show. Yeah, we tried and he was he was like, I dropped this story today. I am going on vacation tonight. Nicely done from Keith of Spa Track by the way on Keon Ellis and a possible extension. Quote, that’s the goal. We had a lot of discussion on the best way to handle things with Keon and the option we had for him. Ultimately, it’s a show of trust that we picked up his option instead of making him a restricted free agent. That helped us add some talent this year that we might have not been able to get otherwise. Now, we hope to get something done that keeps Keon in Sacramento because he’s a really good player and different from all of our other guards, a Sacramento front office executive said. Let’s start with let’s start with Keon, okay? and then we will discuss Keegan Murray. So, I read that yesterday and I felt pretty good about it, right? I felt that the Kings were being pretty transparent, at least with Keith Smith. They’ve been transparent with us. We want as much flexibility as possible. Then I started thinking about that one specific line and the one specific line where Keith Smith as he is, you know, breaking down what is said, the specific line where they mention that they uh were able to get more talent, right? this specific line from the executive that helped us add some talent this year that we might not have been able to get otherwise. Okay, that specifically. Now, let’s think about what the Kings did this off season. This has nothing to do with draft picks because you obviously get draft picks. So Dennis Shruder essentially this helped us acquire Dennis Shruder in a specific way or one of this is one of the ways we were able to acquire Dennis Shruder in a specific way which keeps our MLE whether they use it or not is their prerogative and which started the whole conversation with the 916 of course and here we are. Now let me spin this to you and that sounds like a positive thing. Hey, they needed a point guard. They go get a point guard. Cool. Now, let me spin this to you in a different way. And I’m not trying to annoy anyone, but this is what I was thinking about last night as I reread the article. If they end up losing Keon Ellis, they want to do a deal, but if they end up losing Keon Ellis, you could pretty much say that you lost him because you wanted to give Dennis Shruder more money when we have really no clue if anyone else was going to give Dennis Shruder that amount of money. Think about that for a second. So, if they keep Kon Ellis, no harm, no foul, right? We we wanted to compete. We really want We wanted to make sure Dennis Shruder was a Sacramento king. But if they lose Keon Ellis, if they don’t get a deal done during the season and he becomes a I believe an unrestricted free agent, you have to you Sacramento, you Kings fans will have to deal with the idea and it wouldn’t be wrong that you essentially lost Keon Ellis to acquire Dennis Shruder. Obviously, they haven’t lost anybody yet, but that would be what it was. You lo and and here’s the thing. They dumped money. They really wanted Dennis Shruder and they wanted him in a specific way. They dumped Valenunis and now they they pick up Keon’s option as well. And if you lose Keon, you have to live with you lost Keon Ellis to give Dennis Shruder more money. not just to acquire Dennis Shruder but to give Dennis Shruder 15 million a year kind of over three years of course over two years when there to this day to this day not to go Deontay Wilder on you we do not know if the Pistons or any other team was planning on giving Dennis Shooter 15 million a year. He made 12 last season, so it’s not as if it’s a a a completely ridiculous amount, but maybe this was a little bit of that Sacramento tax, a little bit of we really like Dennis Shruder for a team that is currently projected to win 34 and a half games. That’s where they’re set. You can find him at 36. So if you lose Keon Ellis, you would have lost him over a 34 and a half win team projected and to pay Dennis Shruder more money then we have no clue if anybody else was going to pay Dennis that money. And I thought, Kyle, if they don’t get something done with Keon, and again they whether they make the whether they make the playoffs and lose in the first round or not. And I understand that Kings fans, myself included, value Keon maybe a little bit more than the rest does it, I don’t care. That’s not going to go over well. Yeah, I think that’s the answer right there is that they’re going to have a hard time justifying choosing Dennis Shruder over Keon Ellis specifically to this fan base, right? Yeah. Because so much of the conversation this off season has been, okay, in the long run, would they rather keep Zack Lavine, Demar Roen, or Malik Monk as the three guards? If it ends up being all three of those but not retaining Keon Ellis, I feel like that’s going to be more infuriating to people than it would be just having done the sign and trade where Malik Monk goes to Detroit and Shruder comes to the Kings and then they either bringing Kaminga or not bringing Kaminga. Let’s say they they they declined the option and and had an extension lined up and gave Keon a pay raise for next year. Yeah. If they had done that, added Dennis Shruder and not kept Malik Monk, I don’t think there would have been the same outrage from people as there would be if Keon Ellis originally undrafted Kings, Stockton Kings, last guy on the roster turned into rotation player. If that guy doesn’t get resigned, which is a very real possibility he won’t, and maybe they are preparing as if he won’t be here beyond this season, if that guy leaves, that’s going to make the fan base more emotional than had they just cut their losses and moved Malik Monk now or brought in someone else. a fringe starter in Dennis Shruder that you have now given 15 mil a year for at least the next two years and it could not that it will but it could cost you Keon Ellis. It could. And they they said it themselves in the same note. In the same note, they say, “We hope to get something done that keeps Ka Sacramento because he’s a really good player and different from all of our other guards.” All of our other guards. And they have 12. They have 12 guards. And the one guy that is different from all your other guards, you could lose. Yeah. And maybe they’re not counting Dennis Shruder in that conversation. I think they’re talking nonpoint guards. But even still, with what Keon has shown, yes, may he might be a little bit overvalued in Sacramento in the 916, in the 209, all over the Sacramento area. If you’re a Kings fan, if you like to light the beam, whether whether you you you listen to radio every day, whether you listen one day a week, two days a week, everybody loves Keon. And even if here’s the kicker though. Even if you don’t love Keon, even if you are the realistic Kings fan that thinks, “Look, man. Dude, Keon’s good, but I think we need to pipe down.” I I don’t there. We’ve definitely had those calls. I try to remember names, but off the top of my head, I don’t want to say the wrong person, but we have had those calls. Even that person will not be able to swallow losing Keon to give Dennis Shruder more money. That’s the problem. losing Keon to even get a PJ Washington, right? And and maybe that’s still in the cards or weirdly the case, right? When Kyle, you like to kind of follow trades down the line. Maybe that is the case. We don’t know because they have the flexibility. And to the point of the 916 that I was arguing with earlier, okay, so let me get this straight. You picked up Keon’s option for more flexibility this year. This year you went and got Dennis Shruder. Cool. But now you’re telling me that because you don’t want the cap constraints and the luxury tax and all that, you’re not going to use the MLE this season, but you might still lose Keon Ellis. That doesn’t make a ton of sense. That’s the other part of this, right? is they if they knew they weren’t going to get Kaminga and they knew they weren’t going to sign another point guard after Shooter, which they didn’t know at the time when they picked up Keon Ellis’s option, right? Cuz they had to pick it up. I think it was June 29th. So when they picked up the option, they were still trying to go for Shruder and Westbrook cuz they did the dual Zoom calls and they were trying to negotiate with the Warriors on a Kaminga situation. And the fact that they struck out on everything except Shruder and as of right now aren’t using the mid-level exception says to me if you had just prioritized Shruder, you could have signed him with the MLE, declined Keon’s team option or declined Keon’s option for this year and had an extension already lined up before that because I know free agency opens on June 30th. Most of these teams already have the deals lined up before free agency. There is tampering. There is agents doing stuff. You just have to be good at not getting caught, right? If you had just prioritized Shruder, who we knew before free agency opened was highly connected to the Kings, they could have used that available trade exception space to to sign Keon. And I don’t want to go into the semantics of it beyond that, but essentially they could have made it work, but it would have looked different and maybe they wouldn’t have given Shruder $15 million a year for two two years with a third non-G guaranteed year. Yeah. And and again, look, if it comes up, we can’t control how they value certain players. And I do trust obviously the the basketball IQ of Scott Perry, BJ Armstrong in the front office. But if and if it comes out that Detroit was offering Dennis Shruder 14 14 uh 14 a year and the King said, “We really feel like he’s our guy.” There are some people that might disagree with that, but we really feel like Dennis Shooter is our guy. Okay. I I I don’t have to agree with it the same way somebody doesn’t have to agree with any moves that the Kings make or how I kind of break down those moves and my opinions on it, but it would make more sense. We don’t and maybe we could just assume that, but right now we don’t know. Well, and also from a pure basketball standpoint, like you mentioned, Keon Ellis is a fringe starter. He probably won’t start on this team as presently constructed. He might play some closing minutes, but again, he’s probably not going to start on this team as presently constructed. So, Keon Ellis himself is a fringe starter in the NBA, just like Dennis Shruder. There is a a basketball argument for the 2026 team that signing Dennis Shruder to that extension is a good allocation of money because he plays a position of need as a fringe starter. Now, is it going to get you 48 wins? No, it’s not. But in a vacuum, they needed a point guard. They got a point guard at a relatively affordable price who has been a starter in the league for nine years, right? But even if Shruder and Keon are bringing similar values, like we talked about before, it’s not going to go over well with the fan base if you bring in Shruder and don’t extend Keon Ellis because Keon Ellis is the type of player every fan base wants. the the undrafted guy through the GLeague, last guy on the bench to backup to starter. Like that that is the prototypical story. Yeah, fans love stories that everyone is gets excited about and and you want people to be excited about that. Yeah, it’s a it’s a real thing and they should because you love homegrown you love homegrown players. We all do. And obviously nothing has happened yet in as it pertains to an extension or losing Keon in free agency. But as I read Keith Smith’s article or I guess I should say reread it because the first time I read it, we were on the air. But as I reread it, I thought, you know, this could end up really bad if the Kings, now I think here is the kicker, and this goes back to how I think things will go. If they are on track for 34 wins, we will see some big moves made at the trade deadline. Even if that’s if you know Demar if that’s a Demar de Rozan if that’s the time where you do Demar D Rozan for Terry Roier and the two seconds to just clear that if Terry Ojier is able to play basketball even if he isn’t you even if he isn’t it’s just the money you’d actually prefer him not to but you could do that deal we’re saying uncle it’s not happening we’re sellers dear is gone we’ll see what happens in the in the summer for Sabonis or now we have more money to throw at Keon as well. Maybe Malik gets traded. Maybe Malik gets traded. So that is maybe what Scott Perry is banking on. Hey, there’s really no world either we’re going to I guess the only world that could be viewed as negative and you would still have a positive within it is the Kings exceed expectations. They get to the first round. So now everybody feels better about it. Obviously, you can’t blow that up and you end up losing Keon because nobody goes anywhere because you went to the playoffs. So you sacrifice Keon for a playoff run. Those are the maybe that’s how Scott Perry is looking at this. we’re either not gonna play well and we’re gonna blow it up at the trade deadline or in the summer and we’re gonna have a lot of money to throw at Keon and that’s maybe what we’ve unofficially told him or we’re going to exceed expectations and Thanos at at what cost the cost is going to be Keon. Those are the maybe those are the two worlds that Scott Perry is living in. Well, and in the Keon case, like he if I if I were his agent, and I’m sure I would not be qualified to be his agent, but just reading the landscape, there’s no reason unless the Kings are offering a deal you can’t you feel like you can’t refuse, you’re an unrestricted free agent in a summer where a bunch of teams are going to have cap space or the ability to make signin trades. You shouldn’t talk about an extension until like May. So that way you know what everyone everyone’s cap situation looks like, everyone’s roster and and theoretically the Kings offer this summer should still be on the table next summer unless there’s an injury or something bad happens like I guess you could say guarantee your money now if they’re offering you 20 million a year or 17 million a year maybe you just want to guarantee your money but other than that you wait to become an unrestricted free agent because theoretically ally multiple teams will be bidding for your services. There are, this isn’t really disputing what you’re saying, but there are a lot of big names that are going to be thrown around in the 2026 off season. Between the draft, that crazy 2026 draft, and the 2026 off season, this is a little copium here, but you could maybe feel as if Keon isn’t going to be at the forefront of all those conversations. And maybe that’s why the Kings feel as if, hey, look at all the free agents that are going to be out there. I don’t know how many of them are go we are going to prioritize. Nobody else is going to prioritize Keon even in an unrestricted free agency the same way that we are. So, if we are and and maybe we’re accepting again based on the fact that we’re probably going to be moving off of one of these bigger contracts that we’re going to possibly overpay Keon a little bit as a hey, thank you for your service. Thank you for what you’ve done. Allah of Brock Party, not the same as Brock Party, but Allah of Brock Party, we want to keep you. We’re just also trying to compete right now. For what reason? We we know the reason, but because we have to try to compete right now, right? And maybe Ke like say they offer four years and 72 million, which is $18 million a year. Maybe Keon says, “Hey, maybe I’m going to get up to 20 million in the off in the summer.” But I I’m just content just taking it, guarantee my money. If I get hurt, I’m locked up long term. I’ve got multi multi-generational wealth, which I know we talk about this with the NBA guys, but Keon Ellis’s career earnings are like $4 million or like $4 a.5 million. Like, it’s not the multi-generational wealth. No, you could trick that off easy. I’m not saying Keon would. Somebody could. No, you’re not going to last your entire life on that kind of money. But I I mean, I’m saying you’d have to invest it blah blah blah. your point. You It’s easier to trick off $4 million than it is to trick off $74 million, which both things which both things can be done. And here’s the other part of this, which is why I’m having this conversation, but this kind of goes back to how I initially felt yesterday, because you have to think that the Kings have already done a little bit of that homework on the 2026 free agent class and they feel confident that they will be able to resign Keon. That doesn’t mean that it’s going to happen. But if they thought I I don’t think them accepting the offer or picking up the option, it was them saying, “Yeah, we’re okay saying goodbye to Keon.” I think it’s a calculated risk that might come to bite them in the butt. But I think the other part of being bit in the butt is if you possibly lose Keon and you didn’t even use the MLE and you ended up with 35 wins. That’s the other problem. because to the 916’s point, you wanted to save a bit of cash and uh and the the cap flexibility for the future. And it’s more of double dutch, right? You’re double dutching. When do you hop in? Are you in or out? You can’t keep messing around. You try to jump in and you jump out. Are you going for it this season or not? Because if you weren’t going for it this season, you should have just paid Keon. If you are going for it, then use the MLE. even if it might hamstring you in the future because clearly if you were prioritizing your future, you would have made sure that you locked up Keon. So maybe they’re just in a position right now where they don’t feel like they can do one thing or the other. All right, when we return, Keegan Murray has some uh has some notes in the Keat Smith article as well. So we talk about how there is another side to Keegan Murray’s conversation. Alan South on sports.

Are the Sacramento Kings close to an extension with guard Keon Ellis?

On this Wednesday edition of The Allen Stiles Show, he delves into the latest developments in their negotiations as new reports emerge.

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