How Clippers OUTSMARTED Lakers: Kawhi & Harden vs. LeBron James & Luka Doncic roster comparison

How Clippers OUTSMARTED Lakers: Kawhi & Harden vs. LeBron James & Luka Doncic roster comparison

All right, welcome to Hoops Tonight here at the volume. Happy Friday, everybody. Hope all of you guys are having a great end of your week. It’s mailbag day. Bunch of good questions from you guys again. I’m grabbing these questions from the YouTube comments. So, if you want to get questions into our mailbag, go to our full episodes, put mailbag with a colon, write your question, and we will get to them once a week throughout the remainder of the year. You guys know the drill. Before we get started, subscribe to the Hoops Tonight YouTube channel so you don’t miss any more of our videos. Follow me on Twitter at_jasonlt so you guys don’t miss show announcements. Don’t forget about our podcast feed, wherever you get your podcast under Hoops Tonight. It’s also super helpful if you leave a rating and a review on that front. Jackson’s doing great work on our social media feeds on Twitter, Instagram, Facebook, and Tik Tok. Make sure you guys follow us over there. And then last but not least, keep dropping those mailbag questions. Like I mentioned, and we’ll get to them in our mailbags throughout the remainder of the year. All right, let’s talk some basketball. So, I have to start with a fake question. I shouldn’t say it’s a fake question. It actually began from a tweet that I saw uh last night. Why do the Clippers feel comfortable making substantial efforts to capitalize on the end of the Kawawaii James Harden era than the Lakers ever did with LeBron and Anthony Davis and now again with Luca Donuch? I find this conversation to be very interesting. So, the Clippers have doubled down on Kawhi and James Harden this summer, right? They gave James Harden a new deal. They traded Norman Powell for John Collins to improve their front court depth and replaced Norman Powell with Bradley Beal, an upgrade at the position. They signed an older veteran center in Brook Lopez to improve their depth and matchup versatility. They have improved dramatically. The Lakers got a castaway in DeAndre who obviously is an improvement. I don’t want to undercut that, but he’s super high risk. That’s a big part of why he was available at the number that the Lakers were able to get him at, right? And most importantly, they let Dorian Finny Smith walk. He was a player that was so valuable to the Lakers last year that they were 17 points per 100 possessions better when he was on the floor versus off. He was clearly because of his just intelligent positional defense, his ability to knock down wide openen catch and shoot threes and just his veteran leadership just greased the wheels for the Lakers on both ends of the floor. He made them better. Lakers fans were pleading with JJ Ratic to start him at small forward almost immediately after the trade and yet they let they let him walk. He was one of their most valuable role players and they and they just didn’t want him. They replaced him with Jake Laia and he’s fine. I don’t want to like make this about Jake Laia. He’s a fine player but he’s a substantial downgrade and the premise behind it all is that the Lakers want flexibility. flexibility to sign a star in 2027 or flexibility to trade for a star at some point in the future. In other words, the Lakers were hesitant to invest in LeBron and AD and now they’re hesitant to invest in LeBron and Luca and they keep an eye on the future in both cases. And again, even with the LeBron piece, I want to be like, okay, you’re you’re looking for the next player that’s going to play alongside Luca. LeBron is an allNBA level talent. It’s very possible that you don’t get an allNBA level talent the entire time that you have Luca Donuch there. They’re not just growing on trees. There’s 15 of them in the entire league. That is this piece with LeBron here next to Luca might very well be the best roster that you’re ever able to put together alongside Luca Donuch. and yet their eye is on the future. While the Clippers seem more focused on getting the most out of this group, on capitalizing on this era. It’s particularly interesting to me because both teams are second tier teams. Neither of these teams are on the level of the top teams in the league. They’re just kind of in that next level down. A move could potentially move them into that range, right? And both teams have an obvious retirement drop off coming. Whether it’s James Harden’s potential down downfall over the next couple years, Kawhi Leonard’s knee trouble, or LeBron being 41 years old at the end of next season, right? They both are in very similar positions. There’s reasoning for both teams to go in either direction. So why are they going in different directions? I think the answer to this is simple. The Clippers trust their basketball philosophy. They know they’ll be able to pivot when the time comes without too much of an issue. They just did it. They let Paul George walk, which ended up being perfect timing as his knees have just failed him since he went to Philly. And they signed Derek Jones Jr. and Chris Dunn for about 15 million a year. 35 million less than Paul George. And they got better. Why did they get better? Because of that lack of redundancy. Because like we talked about in yesterday’s pod, a role player that fills a specific team need can be more valuable to winning basketball games than a star talent. A concept that has eluded the Lakers ever since Jerry Bus left the team or passed away, I should say. What is that strong basketball philosophy? The Clippers know what works in the modern NBA and they know they’ll always be able to find the next player that they need to fill a role. That philosophy is everything that we’ve discussed at length over the previous couple of years. The value of advantage creation. When you have a player like James Harden that can set up players with an advantage, meaning a defender sprinting at them from an opening rather than having to play against a loaded up defense. If you do that, every single one of those role players will overachieve based on those advantages. James Harden is one of the highest floor offensive players in the NBA. The value of jump shooting. The Clippers have consistently been one of the best jump shooting teams in the league year after year after year. The value of a strong defensive foundation in the form of a versatile center. They saw the value in Zubots that the Lakers did not see in his ability to defensive rebound, protect the rim, defend even in switches. He’s a better switch defender than he ever gets credit for. He has given them the strong defensive foundation. The value of perimeter defense and overall team speed. This was the beauty of getting Derrick Jones Jr. and Chris Dunn, players that were available. Derrick Jones Jr. just had a a playoff run with Luca Donuch where he made the finals and was immensely important as the primary point of attack defender. Did a wonderful job on Anthony Edwards. But all the other teams looked at it and they went, “Oh, he’s just benefiting from Luca.” The Clippers saw this is one of the most important traits that an NBA player can have, the ability to guard the opposing best player and to be able to run up and down the floor in transition. Chris Dunn as well. A fax simile of that at $5 million a year. They saw the value there. The value of coaching. The Lakers let Tailoo walk. The Clippers saw value in Tailoo. For the Lakers, they were like, “Oh, LeBron won the title.” Yeah, he did. But Tailoo was one of the best coaches in the league. The Lakers didn’t see that. The Clippers did. The value of schematic approach on both ends of the floor. Look at what Darvin Ham uh failed to do with the Lakers. This has been apparent to me for a while, and it’s why I was so high on the Clippers going into last season. I I know people like to roast the Clippers and their failures, but we all know what that was. I’m I’m not sitting here and pretending like the bubble wasn’t a disaster. The bubble was a disaster. But every other year they’ve been there, it’s Kawhai’s looked great. They’ve looked like a team with a real chance to go and then his knee just breaks down. If Kawawaii stays healthy, they most likely win the title in 2021. This is a team that has been there. They’ve just had really poor luck with their injuries, right? The Lakers have no basketball ideology beyond how do we get the next star. It’s why they wanted Kawhai first before pivoting to a championship core of role players. It’s why they traded for Russell Westbrook. It’s why they wouldn’t trade picks for LeBron and AD when they were trying to win, at least not all of them, right? It’s why they wouldn’t retain Dorian Finny Smith a couple weeks ago. It’s why they won’t trade their first round pick this summer to upgrade a starting two or a starting three because it’s just not flashy enough to bring in a role player quality two guard. It’s not it’s not it’s not press conference worthy. They want cap space in draft picks so that maybe just maybe they can get Jannis Tennako or Nicole Joic. Look at the Jake Larivia signing for example. And again, I like Jake Larivia. I think he’s a fine player. This is not about him in a vacuum. What is the one thing that this Lakers roster has been sorely missing for years? Athleticism, especially on the perimeter, speed. team speed. Jakeia doesn’t materially move the needle on that at all. They they’ve needed athleticism for years and they’ve made quite literally no attempt to address that need. I had Lakers fans tell me this morning, “Well, the Lakers have a title in the LeBron era, and the Clippers literally have zero titles in franchise history.” You’re right. LeBron James chose the Lakers because he wanted to live in Los Angeles. and he used his friendship with Anthony Davis and his agency to bring AD over and they won a championship. But then Rob Pelinka almost immediately blew up that core in a way that literally everybody knew was dumb in the moment. Every you you you’ll be hardressed to find a Lakers fan that was like, “Oh, this is smart. KCP and Kyle Kzma for Russell Westbrook and we’ll let Alex Cruso walk in the ensuing salary crunch.” Everyone knew it was a bad idea. They blew it up right away. And if you zoom out, for over a decade, from 2013 to 2025, the Lakers have mostly been a massively underachieving mess relative to the talent when they had LeBron and AD and obviously the inability to put together a competent basketball team around that. While the Clippers have consistently been in the upper echelons of the NBA, they’ve even pivoted multiple times in that span. Do you guys remember that feisty playoff team? I think it was 2019, the team with Patrick Beverly and Lou Williams, that team that like straight up was causing some problems for the Golden State Warriors. They they were feisty even before Kawawaii and Paul George joined the team. The Lakers and their star driven approach, it works really well. It worked really well in the Jerry Bus era. And yeah, you still need a top tier star to win the title. I’m not trying to undercut that. But after you have that top star, the rest of the job comes entirely down to quality team building and understanding what works in the modern NBA. We’ve seen so many examples of overindexing on stars not work. The latest being this Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, Bradley Beal Suns team. It doesn’t work. Let’s say things go south with the Nuggets and the Lakers get Nicole Joic. You don’t think Nicole Joic and Luca Donuch have some redundancies? They’re two of the best advantage creators in the league. You There’s a redundancy there. It would have diminishing returns. In my opinion, the Lakers will not experience sustained success in the NBA until they learn this lesson. End of story. And and I I I just think it’s really fascinating because like the Clippers are just like, “Yeah, yeah, we’re gonna go for it with this.” And then, you know, when when Kawhai’s done and James Harden’s done, we’ll just do it again because we know it works. We know how to win in the NBA, so we’ll just do it again from scratch or, you know, half pivot, whatever it is that they end up doing at that point in time, and they’ll be fine. They’ve had sustained success because they understand how to win basketball games. And it’s not what you can say in a press conference about who you obtained, but rather what you can accomplish on the basketball court. Perimeter defense and speed, a strong defensive foundation in the form of rim protection and defensive rebounding and the ability to switch, the value of jump shooting at every position. Like they just get it organizationally and the Lakers don’t. and and until that changes again, there will not be sustained success from the Lakers. All right, let’s go to our next question. All right, folks. This is insane. For the first time ever, we’ve got a full-blown allwomen’s boxing mega event going down in New York City. Two title fights on the same night. Let’s go. And if you’re like me and you love the action, DraftKings Sportsbook is where it’s at. We’re talking Katie Taylor versus Amanda Serrano 3, the trilogy fight. Absolute legends. Katie’s putting her super lightweight belt on the line and you know Serrano’s bringing the heat. But don’t sleep on the co-main. Alicia the bomb bombgardner explosive power is taking on the undefeated WBA interim champ Jennifer Miranda. That one’s going to be fireworks. If you’ve never bet with DraftKings, it’s super simple. Just pick who you think is going to win. That’s it. Easy. And check this out. If you’re new to DraftKings, throw down five bucks and boom, you get $150 in bonus bets instantly. It’s wild. Download the DraftKings Sportsbook app right now and use promo code hoops. That’s h o ps. That’s code hoops for new customers to get $150 in bonus bets instantly when you bet just five bucks. Only on DraftKings, the crown is yours. Why is the media’s view of Kobe and where he ranks as a player all time so far off from where players past and current view him? Bleacher Report had him at 11 all time. So, I did a deep dive into this concept in yesterday’s show, so you guys can go find that over there. But the short version is everyone just looks at the efficiency. Kobe never had a season over 51% in effective field goal percentage and it just breaks people’s brains. But if you do any research, every perimeter star who was a jump shooter in that era was actually less efficient than Kobe. And it just was a sign of the times so to speak. And I think just people they look at Devin Booker and they look at, you know, James Harden and some of these other two guards that put up crazy efficiency numbers which were a product of spread pick and roll and great spacing and all these modern offensive concepts that make all this work and they just they they sit there and look at, you know, Kobe’s basketball reference page and they can’t piece together why it looks the way that it looks. Again, Kobe’s most efficient scoring season was the last season of his career before he tore his Achilles because it was the year that was closest to the modern game and what we understand about basketball now. But again, I did a deep dive into that into yesterday’s show. So, head back over to our feed and look back and you will see I I went in depth into that concept with a bunch of numbers. I explained statistically some of the other uh some of Kobe’s peers and how they performed. You guys can find that over there. Which of the the Thunder summer league players do you think will make a considerable a considerable impact on the team this year or next year? I think Topic, AJ Mitchell, Brooks Barnheiser could all get some decent playing time. Nicole Tobic is the guy that I’m looking at. And again, it’s going to be a similar kind of problem to what happened with Josh Giddy. A big part of it is going to be can to hit wide openen catch and shoot threes. And again, like there’s been stretches where that’s been the case and stretches where that’s not and we’ll see. But overall, ball handling was the biggest weakness that I think was demonstrated there. There were other weaknesses overall offensive process and some of the spot-up shooting stuff, but I thought the Pacers in particular exposed a ball handling deficit for Indiana just uh uh just them succumbing and fatiguing under some of the ball pressure that they just posed to them throughout the entire series. And so Nicole Toba, just getting another reliable ball handler that can run action and set guys up with advantages, that’s the kind of thing that will be able to loosen things up for Oklahoma City on the offensive end of the floor. Can you do a deep dive into the Timberwolves, their ceiling and floor and what you think good moves will be for their future? So, you know, obviously Nikquil Alexander Walker on paper losing him affects the the talent level on the roster, the depth on the roster. I don’t want to undercut that. I would argue it’s a little more complicated because they did bring in Dante Devenenzo last year. So, it’s not like they don’t have options at that two guard spot. U but to me, everything just continues to fall on Anthony Edwards. I really like the roster. You talk about ceiling and floor. The floor is super high because they are just this big physical defense full of a bunch of ass kickers that causes real problems in physical playoff basketball. And that’s why they’ve made the conference finals two years in a row. I love the front court thing. I like the the versatility. I’m not a big goar guy, but like especially in the regular season, it helps to have like a shooting center that you can use in Nasreed while also having like a rim protecting center center that can give you a high defensive floor in the regular season. I love the their overall defensive foundation. They have better jump shooting than I think people give them credit for. That it that was the big kind of like uh takeaway from the beginning of last season or was like, okay, can Jaden McDaniels and Julius Randall and Rudy Goar as a front court provide enough spacing? And like Julius shot the ball pretty well. Jaden McDaniels showed some real scoring chops, especially in the Lakers series. They’re a little bit more resilient offensively than I expected them to be. But to me, the ceiling still just comes down to Anthony Edwards when they got into that series. Shay Gildas Alexander was able to turn his back to the basket or generally work off the bounce in that 13 to 17 foot range and get reliable baskets that allowed him to score at volume in that series in a way that Anthony Edwards was not. Anthony Edwards because of the ball pressure from Oklahoma City and the rim protection, he was chased off the line, didn’t shoot well enough on pull-up threes anyway, and did not have that refined mid-range, short-range scoring that made Shay such a reliable scorer there. That to me is the ceiling. The ceiling for Minnesota is Ant’s development. If Ant can close the gap between where Sheay is and where he needs to be, if he can close that gap, that is what will allow the Timberwolves to get over the hump. Hey Jason, love the show. As a casual NBA fan that never played any high school basketball or high level basketball, your breakdowns have really expanded my knowledge and my joy for watching the game. So, thank you. Thank you so much for the kind words. You talk a lot about shot result and the impact being of being in rhythm. As someone who played at a high level, would you please elaborate as to what that actually means and why that has such a big impact on shot results? Is it just confidence? When you don’t shoot for long stretches in games, is your shooting form not as precise? Also, how can a team of five players be in rhythm versus one guy just catching fire? Keep up the great work and welcome to Denver. Thank you. I’m very, very excited to be here. Um, so this is a very, very complicated concept, right? The concept of rhythm and and I don’t want to synthesize it down to any one thing. There’s a bunch of different elements to it. I do think there’s a physiological element to it in the sense that I mean you guys all know what it’s like if if I uh handed you a basketball and I was like okay take a 27 foot three right now or not even that. Let’s just say an NBA three above the break three a 23-footer off of the wing. If I asked you to take that shot and you didn’t touch a basketball at all today and you just went up there and shot it, you have a very small percentage chance of making it because your elbow’s just not warm, right? Like the muscle and the tendon and everything, it’s just not loose. It’s not warm. Right now, in a game, I think that happens to a much lesser extent, right? Like if you go 25 minutes of real time without doing the jump shot motion and then suddenly you need to take a shot, your muscle and your your tendon it’s it’s not like like in that so to speak physiological rhythm to be able to knock a shot down, right? Whereas like you get three four shots over the course of a couple of minutes on that third or fourth shot you’re going to feel a lot more comfortable physiologically in your elbow. But there’s also a bunch of other elements to it that involve rhythm on the team level, right? like is is overall the team operating with a lot of confidence? Shooting is contagious. Tends to be, you know, like when the team is shooting well, more and more guys tend to shoot well because there’s just a vibe around the team where you feel in rhythm. Everyone’s having fun. Everyone’s in that flow. It it can manifest in making shots, right? I also think there’s a defensive element to rhythm. Like there’s a big difference between I’m there and I have a hand up versus I made you uncomfortable. Maybe I swipe at the ball down low. Maybe I bring a level of intensity to the close out that affects the player mentally to where he’s just not as like confident or comfortable in that shot. There’s um uh the work before the shot. like am I physically wearing you down in all the other elements of the game so that when you like let’s say it’s a super physical playoff game and you have a wide open wing three maybe your legs are more beat so you don’t get as much lift into the shot and when there’s not as much lift into the shot it throws the whole calibration of your energy transfer off right now all of a sudden you have to compensate with more power in your follow through well now you’re shooting a different shot than the shot you shoot when you’re practicing right like all of these things factor in to whether or not a shot goes in. And I’ve always said like when it comes to variance, there is absolutely variance, right? Because even if you’re playing under perfect conditions with no defense and your arm is physiologically warmed up and ready to go, you’re still going to make some and miss some, right? So like, I’m not sitting here and pretending like variance doesn’t exist. It’s just when I’m evaluating what’s happening in a game, I’m going to put variance further down the list behind like is this player getting touches and and is he involved in the offense? What did the closeout look like? How physical of a game is this overall? Just like pressure, like mental pressure on a shot, right? Like there’s I’m going to be looking at stuff like that more than I’m going to be looking at just like, “All right, we rolled the dice. Let’s see what happens.” If that makes sense. But it’s hard to explain. Like I am yet to find a basketball player, like an actual person who played basketball at a high level. I’m yet to find a basketball player who looks me in the face and goes, “It’s just variance.” I I just I don’t see I’ve never met that person. So like like it’s usually an analytics professional or, you know, just a person who’s who hasn’t been close to the game who’s telling me that like variance is the thing that’s dictating everything in basketball. It certainly plays a role, but it to me is further down the list than some of the controllables inside of offensive and defensive process. Hey Jason, love the studio. Looking into the future for the Lakers post LeBron, how would you build the roster around Luca to maximize the window of his prime? Would you surround Luca plus Reeves with two-way athletes similar to Dallas a couple years ago, or would you try to get another all-star caliber player? Interested to hear your thoughts. Thanks again for the great content. So, specifically, Luca and Reeves is tricky because uh Austin’s not a great athlete, but then again, like you could say that uh Kyrie Irving and Jaylen Brunson were average to below average athletes as well. So, I don’t want to sit there and discount it entirely. But, I do think that the Dallas experiment from two years ago is the method that I think all teams need to consider. Rim protecting vertical spacers. So, centers that can be strong defensive foundations, but that can also roll hard to the rim and catch and finish lobs. Specifically, Derek Lively and his ability to switch on defense also gave them a layer of versatility there as well. Surrounding him with defensive players that can play with an advantage, guys like PJ Washington and Derrick Jones Jr., they could hit wide open threes at a reasonable enough clip. It ended up being a problem in the Celtics series, but again, that Celtics team had one of the most dynamic rosters in recent NBA history. they had the ability to put Jason Tatum on a center and things like that. We we may not see teams like that uh that they run into in the future, right? To me with the Lakers, I would be less focused on finding the next superstar to play alongside Luca. And I’d be looking for really highlevel two-way athletes, upgrades at the two, upgrades at the three, guys that are big, strong athletes that can guard multiple positions that can hit an open three and drive a close out. And then at the center position, I mean, I don’t like as far as the DeAndre Eaton thing goes, I think he’s a great option for this year because he’s in a contract year. He has no choice but to behave and to give his best in order to get his next contract. But let’s say that that happens and he signs a, you know, let’s say a four-year, $100 million deal or something along those lines. All of a sudden, I look at DeAndre Aon and I go, I’m not sure I’d want to be in the DeAndre Aton business when he’s got a hund00 million coming his way no matter what over the next four seasons. that could be when he spirals back down into some of the unprofessionalism issues that he had in Portland, right? So, like I don’t love the eight and fit, but in the long run, if you could have a big athletic center that could defend and drop and in switches and roll to the rim with a real vertical spacing threat, I think the Dallas mold is is the way to is the way to go. to take it a step further, like Luca to me uniquely is less dependent on star supporting talent because he’s just this magnificent high volume advantage creator. I think Steph Curry kind of falls into a similar role and he demonstrated that clearly in 2022, right? when you have such a gifted advantage creator that even like lesser offensive players are thriving offensively like PJ Washington did in the playoffs two years ago like Jordan Pool and Andrew Wiggins did in 2022. When you have that type of talent, that type of worldbeating offensive talent, I think it becomes more about like star role players, really, really, really gifted role players that can fill gaps and raise your floor defensively and all these other things defensively or in terms of your floor so high that Luca’s greatness can carry you over the top. There are other stars that that that changes and it becomes different and you need more substantial surround like Giannis for instance. Giannis is the kind of guy that like probably needs a really highlevel perimeter player next to him in order to reach his absolute peak as a superstar. Uh there there are going to be those types of players out there, but to me, a guy like Luca, it’s less about finding the star next to him and just giving him really really highlevel role players. I think it’s proven to work like we saw two years ago. And that’s the direction I would go if I was the Lakers. Last question. Which trio do you think will be better? Victor Wmanyama, Dylan Harper and Steph Castle or Shay Gildas Alexander, Chad Homegrren and Jaydub. This is complicated because there’s two completely different angles here. I think WBY’s ceiling is substantially higher than Sha’s. Like I I think WBY has a chance to be far and away the best player in the league one day. I don’t think Shay has any potential to be far and away the best player in the league. So if Victor Wemanyama reaches that point, that gives him the potential to be a part of a more dependable core in the long run than Shay, Jet, Cet, and JDub. But Chet and JDub are both pretty close to all NBA level talents right now. And like I and I believe I think Chad will certainly be and JDub has that potential within the next couple of years, right? Dylan Harper, we’ll see, man. Like literally hasn’t played an NBA game before. And Steph Castle shows all sorts of upside, but he’s still super raw. Like Steph is still years away from being like a truly great uh you know the type of player that say JDub is for example. And so it’s kind of those two bits of variance, right? Like how much better will become than Shay and can Dylan Harper and Steph Castle reach the level that Shet and Jdub have reached? And that will be the the determining factor. At this point, I think I’d lean uh Sheay, Chat, and JDub just because they’re already there. Sheay is already a top tier superstar, even if he’s not at Jookic’s level. Chat, and JDub are already like well worth max contracts. There’s just too much variance in terms of Dylan Harper and Steph Castle and the players that they can become, but I don’t want to sit there and say that that Spurs core can’t be better. They certainly can. I just think that Thundercore is a little bit of a safer bet. All right, guys. That’s all I have for today and all I have for this weekend. As always, I sincerely appreciate you guys for supporting us and supporting the show. We will be back next week. Not sure what I think we’re going to be beginning our offseason plan at that point. Uh Jackson and I need to get together and do some planning. But again, we will be back next week. I will see you guys then.

Jason answers mailbag questions from listeners of the show including one on why the Los Angeles Clippers are making a commitment to winning behind an older core of James Harden and Kawhi Leonard while the Los Angeles Lakers are standing pat around LeBron James and Luka Doncic. Then he discusses the media’s view of Kobe Bryant being different than player’s views, whether the Oklahoma City Thunder will get contributions from young players, whether the Minnesota Timberwolves can be better than last year, and whether Victor Wembanyama’s San Antonio Spurs can have a better trio than OKC.

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