Kevin Durant, Top-5 Fantasy Player Again!? | Houston Rockets Breakdown

Kevin Durant, Top-5 Fantasy Player Again!? | Houston Rockets Breakdown

Thought I’d break my summer league hat back out today. Uh, not for any reason in particular, just cuz it’s sweet. Welcome to the show, everybody. I’m Dan Vaspers and this is Old Man Squad Fantasy Basketball. Oh, I got some hairs shooting out the side. My kid needs a haircut. I need a haircut. Today we’re talking the Houston Rockets. Although I can feel myself getting sick, so we’ll see how far we make it before the old vocal cords give out. In the meantime, please do remember to hit that like button. The subscribe button continues to go a long way towards our growth as we look at a team that made one big big splash during this off season. The Rockets went 52 and 30 last year. They were solid, very good defensively, very good rebounding team. did not have consistency on offense at all. And they added one of the most consistent offensive players offensive players in the history of basketball and that is Kevin Durant. And that is where we will be today’s show. We’ll be talking about six players on the Rockets that I think are relevant. There’s actually a seventh that relevant for uh what he does to the rest of the players on this team. So, let’s start with KD. Kevin Durant in a different uniform. Coming off a series, a season last year, he played 62 games. He was number 11 in nine category leagues despite kind of a relatively for him high turnover number. Not that it’s not like on the highish side. But 3.1 when the assists were at 4.2 was not my favorite for KD cuz he’s had some years where he was at, you know, three and a half turnovers, but he was closer to six assists. those years and just overall the usage was much much higher. This past season the assists were not high enough. Frankly, the usage as a whole wasn’t high enough to uh to account for the turnover situation. He’s a pretty good defensive stats guy. Has been uh basically throughout his career. He’ll get you over a block a game. He’ll get you pretty close to a steal per game as well. The only thing I would worry about when I look at Kevin Durant going into this coming season is that he has put a lot of miles on that automobile and he’s coming off another year where he had to play close to 37 minutes per game. That said, he’s had seasons in his NBA career where he played more like 34 or 35 minutes and still put up really good fantasy numbers. So, even if the Rockets manage to keep some of that stuff in check, I still think this is going to be a really good year. One of the biggest reasons to me that this is going to be a strong year for Kevin Durant is, and now I have to realize I have to move my head out of the way for YouTubers to see this thing, is that he’s going to a place in Houston that traded away their top usage guy to get him. The other reason that’s important as you look at where he’s coming from is that he wasn’t the highest usage player on the Phoenix Suns. It was Devin Booker. Booker took one more shot per game, had three more assists, and took more free throws. Like across the board, Booker was a higher usage player than KD this past year. That’s not to say that one guy was better at basketball than the other. He just did more. Booker did. KD goes to Houston where he is the unfettered number one. If you’re just going on usage rate alone, and Basketball Monster shows that on their player rank page, I I’ve advocated for you guys having that page up at all times when you can. Uh Jaylen Green was at 27 and a half. Alpron Shenun was at 26. Freddy Van Fleet was all the way down at 18 this past year with Tar Een Thompson. All those guys were down around 18. The Phoenix Suns, remember, by the way, that Jaylen Green is gone. Dylan Brooks was around 18 also. Uh, and of course he went with Jaylen Green the other way. Shangun at 26, which is highish. Like that’s a pretty good number there. But again, we’re talking about Booker near 30. Kevin Durant almost right behind him at 29. Uh the fact that and Beal was at 22 last year and change. I was ahead of him. So, however you cut this thing up, there’s more available in Houston than there was in Phoenix. Yeah, there are more guys in Houston. So, that’s the only thing you point. You’re like, “Well, Dan, there were like a total of three guys that did anything for the Phoenix Suns this last year.” That’s true. Once you got underneath Beal, no one really was particularly involved, at least consistently, on the offensive side. Tyus Jones was probably the closest thing because he was around for most of the year and then he got kind of bumped to the periphery as the season went on. Yes, with Houston like after you get past Changun there’s a pretty big falloff to the Een Freddy Vanfleet Amen Thompson group but Amen is first of all he’s probably going to do a little bit more but also again you have to think about it from the perspective of is it additive or is it more hierarchical and I believe it’s more hierarchical that is like when you’re the number one guy, you take your chunk. And it doesn’t really matter how much the number four guy got. The number four guy on Houston did more than the number four guy on Phoenix, but the numbers one and three guys in Phoenix did more than the numbers two and three guys in Houston, which is sort of where the pie is getting split. So, I think there’s a possibility that KD actually sees more usage this coming year in Houston because Van Fleet is not a guy who controls things and Ben Thompson’s going to do stuff, but he doesn’t control things. ShenGun, yeah, the offense runs through him pretty often. Uh, but my guess is if anything, he gives up a little bit of that to Kevin Durant or it holds about the same. So now if KD has three turnovers a game, I think you’re looking at a guy that’s going to be pretty easily over 27 points per game. The rebounds should hold, the steals the block should hold, maybe comes down a little bit uh if the minutes come down. On top of all of this, my last note on why Kevin Durant might have an even better year is that we’ve seen him many times in his career shoot up around 90% at the free throw line and he was at 84 this last season. 86 the year before that, 83 after he got traded to Phoenix. It was like he couldn’t shoot free throws the way he normally would in Phoenix. These were three of the worst free throw shooting years of Kevin Durant’s career and they came bing bang boom one right after the other in Phoenix. Is he getting worse at foul shooting? I’m inclined to say no because he was shooting 93% with the Nets before he got sent to the Suns that year. I mean, guys don’t just get bad at foul shooting overnight. if he’s suddenly happy again or whatever you want to say like we could be looking at a massive resurgence here for Kevin Durant. Bet Online, you know what time it is. Got to get that in before we get to the rest of the list today. Bet Online is your number one source for sports betting action baseball in full swing. Football season’s right around the corner. And Bet Online has more ways to stay in on the action with the latest odds, news, scores, and even live in-game betting. baseball, UFC, tennis, international basketball, WNBA, NFL futures, and more. Plus, in between games, head to the Bet Online Casino, which by the way, I actually find fun, but I’m also a little bit of a casino file. They’ve got poker, they’ve got blackjack, they’ve got a live casino, and if you head to bet online today, you can take advantage of the industryleading VIP program with level up bonuses and weekly cash boosts. Bet Online, the game starts here. Next name I want to talk about is a fun one, and that is Amen Thompson. By the way, I’m a I’m a big fan of what Houston I think Houston’s going to have a great year. Health dependent, but I think Houston’s going to have a really good year. Amen. Thompson is coming off a brilliant season. He was number 54 on the entirety of the year in Ninecat. Over the second half of this season, he was number 22 in Ninecat. And if we just look at those 35 games, he was around 169 and five with 3.2 defensive stats, 5667 splits. Yeah, the free throw is not exactly what you want, but everything else was very impressive, minus the fact that he can’t shoot. He doesn’t need to so far. Of course, that also pulls into this idea the notion of could a man Thompson get better over the off season? He could. I can’t definitively say that he’s going to become a shooter in one off season, but he might get a little bit better. In any case, despite the fact that the Rockets signed Dorian Finny Smith, who was, by the way, that’s the guy that I mentioned as relevant, but we’re not going to talk about him today. I do think Dorian Finny Smith is going to kind of chip away at a bunch of the other guys on this Rockets team, but I don’t think Amen Thompson is is going to be one of those dudes necessarily. I it just from watching his ascendance and how good he looked in the playoffs and how good the Rockets know he is. To me it feels like there are four guys that are kind of immune to depth stuff on the Rockets. Those four guys are Alpin Shenun, Freddy Van Vleet, Amen Thompson, and obviously Kevin Durant. But Thompson was the one that wasn’t immune to it last year. I just think that he is now. Even though the Rockets by all accounts have kind of the same number of quoteunquote rotation guys, they replaced Jaylen Green and Dylan Brooks with Kevin Durant and Dorian Finny Smith. So same number of guys that are expected to get minutes. I think the order of who’s important changed though where Dylan Brooks was higher on the pecking order at least for a while even then on Thompson and so was Jaylen Green. And now the guys coming in, Kevin Durant is, but I don’t think Dorian Finny Smith is. I’d be more worried about Dorian Finny Smith when we get to the two last guys we’re going to talk about on today’s show. And we’ll just tease that here before we get back into the Amend Thompson thing. Thompson is amazing. I don’t have a clue where he’s going to get drafted this year because enough of us are fantasy nut jobs that we saw the slowish start to the year when he was the sixth man and the Rockets were fully healthy and also saw when Freddy Van Vleet went down for you know five weeks or whatever it was and Tar Een went in and out of the lineup and Jabari Smith Jr. went down for a bunch of time. I forget his he missed 25 games this season. Tar East Een missed 25 games. Freddy Van Vleet missed 22. All those things opened like the door opened a little bit and Thompson jumped up into the 75 range and the door opened a little more and then he was top 50 and the door opened all the way and he was second rounder. I don’t think he goes into this this coming year with the freedom to go second round value right out of the gate. But man, there are a lot of ways to see him getting there. Even at the very, very, very, very bitter end of the season when the Rockets regulars were mostly back, Thompson didn’t really slow down. Now, some of that was an absurd number of steals and blocks. And that’ll happen down the stretch because you play against a bunch of teams that are running out five rookies and three guys from the G-League and they turn the ball over a lot. But like last 10 games of the year, Jabari Smith Jr., Dylan Brooks, Tar East, Alprron Shenun, Freddy Van Fleet, those guys were all healthy for those games for the most part. I think they might have missed two or three each or something as they were resting guys. And Thompson was a was a turn value guy. He was basically a first round. He was number 13, so we’re hairsplitting a little bit on averages of 14, seven, and five with 3.6 defensive stats. So yeah, that fluctuation from, you know, top 30 to top 15 was pretty heavily on the shoulders of an extra combined steel and block per game to go from mid twos on that to mid3s. That’s a a big jump. We’ve talked about how getting into the elite category in in any category really rockets you up the board in fantasy because of how powerful that sort of standard deviation or more becomes. And that’s what he did becoming sort of super elite in steels and elite in blocks. It’s hard to have a low rank when that happens. But let’s say just sort of play it conservatively. What if he did the same stuff down the stretch? 147 and five, but the steals and blocks were more like 2.6 instead of 3.6. Where does that put him? It actually puts him pretty damn close to his overall season numbers, which was 148 and four with 2.7 defensive stats. Uh slightly lower field goal percent. So that didn’t have uh quite as positive an impact. And then obviously the assist was a little bit lower. And that put him at number 54. So, if we’re going to guess, if we’re going to try to make an educated stab at what a man Thompson will be this year, probably better than that. That was in 32 minutes a game, though. So, the opportunity was there, but I don’t know that we can say definitively that when the Rockets are fully healthy, he’s just going to come firing out as a second rounder. I think there’s a very good shot. He’s a fourthrounder. when the Rockets are healthy, fourth or fifth, and every time one guy misses a game, literally any player in the starting five is out besides Thompson, he probably goes an extra round, round and a half higher. So Freddy Van Vetle takes a game off, great. That’s more orchestrating starting. Alpern Shenun misses a game, they run big. That’s probably more big man stats. Kevin Durant misses a game, that’s just more shots for everybody. And this is going to happen because Van Vleet is not a young guy and Kevin Durant is old as dirt. I love him. I think he’s gonna have a great year, but he’s old. So M Thompson is probably going to get drafted in the third round this year if I had to guess. I think I’m hesitant to take him at the beginning of the third. I am open, lightly open to going late third on Thompson. I think that’s an okay play because you sort of build in a little bit of the upside, but you also have to be ready for him to maybe not be there when the season starts. Alpurn Shangun is the next name on our board today. And uh Shangun is what we said he was, which is a very, very good offensive basketball player with a really fun fantasy game minus one very large problem, and that is he takes a lot of free throws, but he doesn’t make that many of them. It is what it is. Uh you’re getting a whole host of big man stats. You’re getting scoring, you’re getting rebounding, you’re not getting a ton of blocks, but you’re getting some. You’re getting steals, you’re getting an okay field goal percent. I’d like that to be a little bit better, frankly, this coming season. That that was, I think, a little bit of a let down because he was at 55 and 54% last year and the year before, and he dropped back down to 50 this year, despite not really dramatically changing his shot profile. Uh, I think it’s pretty fair, and I will keep the Shenun handicap somewhat brief on today’s show. I think he’s going to replicate last year where the upside is a slightly better field goal percent because he probably does about the same amount. He’s going to be the number two option again. He was the number two option last year. Should have been the number one, but he was number two behind Jaylen Green. Uh he’ll be number two behind Kevin Durant. Um you know, I see no reason to make large shifts to what he’s been doing. You only hope that maybe the free throw number could get a little better, but we’re four years into this thing and it’s changed. Not at all. Literally has not changed. He’s been between 71 69 and 71% every year. Like it’s actually quite hard to be that consistent at the foul line and he’s been basically that consistent. There’s a 2% window. I mean, yeah, it could get better. It could, but we’ve seen no signs that it is. So, if you’re drafting ShenGun and you’re punting free throws, he still went actually a tiny bit early this year. Punt free throw play, uh, he was number 44 this last year. Little bit earlier than that in eight catat. U, but mostly he was getting drafted like early third, mid third in a lot of drafts and to me that was too early. I still think that’s too early. Uh, if you’re not punting free throws, I probably would just steer clear because you can get, I don’t want to say similar stats, but you can get a player that’s not going to put a dent into something you’re trying to win. Uh, where he’s going to get drafted. But again, if you’re hunting free throws, my guess is he probably gets drafted around where he belongs this year after going uh getting a little little hot air under the tushy last season that pushed him up the board too far. This year he probably slides back down more into a more predictable spot. Freddy Vanvalite, who was arguably my biggest miss this last season. He could not shoot. Couldn’t shoot to save his life. The other stuff in his game slipped a bit as well, but the biggest thing was a effectively a career worse free throw year. I know his rookie season he shot 35% but there was no volume there since he became a regular in the NBA. This is his worst shooting year. Uh I would almost say by far. Um but it’s really by one full percentage point, but that’s a lot. So yeah, you can point to the usage rate going down. That was problematic this season. Uh he was unhealthy and the guys on his team that had the highest usage were healthy. know Jaylen Green was healthy. Alpra and Shenun was healthy this last year. It was the other guys that missed time. So there was never an opportunity for Freddy Van Fleet to be kind of more of a lead horse the way he was for stretches the prior year. He’s uh agreed to come back. He’s he’s back on a a a lower contract value to make a run at it with a team that has KD now. So, I think you’re probably looking at a dude who’s going to do similar stuff. I think there’s also a possibility that Amen Thompson, as he continues to improve, that could also take a little more off of Freddy Vanble Vleet’s plate, but it would be hard to take much more away than what we had this time around. I mean, there was this this was this was ugly. He didn’t shoot the ball well from three. He didn’t shoot the ball well at the free throw line, which is normally one of his big positives. He just had a year where he couldn’t put a basketball through a hoop. So, to me, that stuff probably comes back, which is good because, you know, he was a late sixth, early seventh rounder this year that was getting drafted in the third. He’s probably going to get drafted sixth, seventh round range. And I just I don’t know how he could possibly shoot worse. Even if he’s a small tick better, he comes flying back in value because the same way we talked about having a category where you’re like hyper elite at it, having a category where you are hyper bad at it has an equally large negative swing. If you put Freddy Van Fleet’s numbers across the board here and you adjust his field goal percent up by two and his free throw percent up by I don’t know what can we safely assume happens next year 4% better. Like he’d never been worse. He’d never been this bad. Three 4% better. First of all, that would give him more scoring and more threes. So yes, there’s some other stuff built into that. But if all you’re adjusting is the percentages for Freddy Van Vleet, he probably jumps around to two rounds. like he probably jumps back near top 50 without anything else changing. So, as much as he was a disaster this past season, I actually think Freddy Van Vleet might end up being a value this year. And I understand if you guys don’t want to get on that boat with me, cuz it’s a it’s a b it’s a boat that is getting old. It’s an old boat. And yet, I think there’s an assumption that the boat is older than it is. He’s not a young dude. He’s 31, but it’s not like he’s 37. Like, he should be able to just play the way he’s been playing. Um, and you know, like you’re going to get sixish assists out of a guy that you might be able to get in the 70s. I think I mean I think I’m in on 70s Freddy Vanfleet. I know, fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me and all that stuff, but whatever. Here we are. Okay, last two names on the board are uh two guys that we’ll start with Jabari Smith Jr. Two guys that um are going to be negatively impacted by Dorian Finny Smith, who it looked like were in line to have a much better fantasy season and now probably aren’t anymore. Um, I say they’re not going to be useful, but I don’t think they’re going to get better. So, Jabari Smith Jr. was someone that I faded this past year. Uh, I thought he was like a relatively boring just outside top 100 kind of play and it ended up much worse than that. Uh, he was the guy who suffered with the ascendance of Amen Thompson and the improvement of Tari Een, who’s the other guy we’re about to be, we’re about to discuss. I don’t think, by the way, I do think Jabari Smith Jr. is still going to start. My guess on the Rocket starting five, uh, but Dorian might take his spot is we talked about the four guys already that are pretty well locked in. KD, uh, Thompson, Shangun, and Van Vleet. I’m guessing that Jabari Smith Jr. is the is the last guy on that board, but it could be Dorian Finny Smith. Either way, there’s just not enough stuff to do. There is a path for both of those guys. I mean, Tar Een was great this past year. Kind of specialist style appeal, but not quite. There’s a path for Jabari Smith Junior to have value. That path is getting about an extra shot, a shot and a half per game. Defensive stats must be better. He was at 1.1 this year after 1.5 last season and 1.4 for his rookie year. So that 1.1 has to get back to 1.4 or 1.5. Field goal percent I hope can tick up to 45 or 46. And if you got all of that and he continues to play 30 plus minutes per game, you could get him around the edge of the top 100. Cuz remember Jabari Smith Jr. was like right on the cusp of being fantasy interesting. Not this past season, but the prior one. He was number 90. that is startable in all formats. Yeah, a lot of things kind of had to break the right way, but he could get back to that. It’s not out of the question, but I also don’t think it’s going to get any better than that. Like a best case scenario, it seems like for Jabari Smith, and this is when the Rockets are healthy, I guess, is 11 shots per game, sort of 14, eight, and assists don’t really matter. Uh little under two three-pointers, one and a half combined defensive stats, low 80s in free throw percent. That’s what he did. not this year, but the prior year that got him just inside the top 100. Would I draft Jabari Smith Jr. if he’s hanging around at like pick 150? I mean, probably. Odds are he won’t be and the other guys that are going in that range are going to be pretty clunky, but I mean, I’d rather take Tari E in that spot. If we’re looking at again like just in your mind say, “Okay, the Rockets are replacing Jaylen Green and Dylan Brooks with Kevin Durant and Dorian Finny Smith.” Those guys, no matter how much Kevin Durant does, those guys are probably not going to do as much combined on offense as Jaylen Green and Dylan Brooks did. Dylan Brooks was 12 shots. Jaylen Green was 17 and a half. That’s close to 30. Kevin Wright last year as we mentioned was 18. Dorian Finny Smith was almost a negligible number. He took seven I think with the Lakers or less than that with the Lakers. I mean seven overall. So even if Kevin Durant took 22 shots, they still would only be matching the Jaylen Grin Dylan Brooks output from last year. So if you’re thinking about it from an offensive standpoint, you hope that means Jabari Smith Jr. can be a little bit better than last year. Is he going to be good enough to get back to top 90? questionable. To me, that still feels like a nice end point. Could Tari Een replicate what he did last year? I’m also inclined to say yes, because from a minutes standpoint, things don’t change all that much. Dorian Finny Smith probably going to play fewer minutes than Dylan Brooks did this last year, which was 32. KD probably plays maybe one, two minutes more than Jaylen Green, who was at 33. But like it kind of feels like a worst case scenario for handicapping the Rockets is it’s the same. Like let’s say KD plays 35, Dorian Finny Smith would have to play 30 for the minutes to balance out. Also, by the way, Rockets also got rid of Cam Whitmore this offseason for whatever that’s worth. Uh I don’t think it’s worth all that much. Those minutes probably don’t go back to the the heavy use guys. So I think Jabari Smith Jr. who you’re still looking at on your YouTube screen right now. Probably a like high floor, low ceiling, ultra late, head-to-head kind of play where you figure you can just sort of acrew just snowball stats throughout the year. Not much upside appeal. So, games cap roto, I don’t know that it’s worth taking a swing on him. The way that things break right for Jabari Smith is if like two other wings get hurt. Meanwhile, as we flash Tar East Een up on the screen now, he has a more translatable nine cat fantasy game because his defensive stats are big. Tar Een was at 2.6 defensive stats last year in 25 minutes per game. We saw the trust in Tari kind of go down in the playoffs, which is a little bit of a concern that perhaps Dorian Finny Smith pushes his way ahead of him. But Tar Een was already kind of the last man in the pecking order that we just talked about. Of the six rockets that I’ve mentioned on this show, the four five now including Een. Uh well KD was not a rocket. So four plus E. Um Jaylen Green, Dylan Brooks being the other ones. Een was the had the fewest number of minutes of any of those guys last year. Minutes per game was Jaylen Green at the top. Uh no, Freddy Van Fleet was at the top. He played 35 minutes a game last year. Apologies. Then Jaylen Green, Amen Thompson. Uh Shangun, Jabari Smith Jr. Did I say Dylan Brooks? He’s in there. Dylan Brooks. Tar Een. One, two, three, four, five. That was seven actually last year. Did I do seven people and not realize it? Yeah, it was five plus two. Whoopsies. Wait. One, two, three, four, five, six, seven. Yeah, seven. I said six. It was actually seven. No, it’s six. It was six. Okay. Doesn’t matter. Daniel can’t count. Uh point is if we’re looking at from those same general names, which last year was Brooks, Jabari Smith, Jaylen Green, Shangun Fanfleet, Tar E, Amen Thompson, that is seven names. But nobody cared about Dylan Brooks from a fantasy standpoint. Tar Een played the lowest number of minutes of any of those guys. So even if that happens again this year where you replace Dylan Brooks and Jaylen Green with Durant and Dorian Finny Smith, Een still only needs, you know, 23 minutes to be fantasy relevant. So to me, he’s a guy you do definitely need to look at. The injury stuff is a concern. So if you’re thinking headto-head, you probably got to go a little bit later. games cap roto because of the upside. He’s a guy you’re looking at probably as like an like a tenth rounder. I don’t think I would go ninth. I think you still got guys there that are more healthy and have kind of equivalent upside. But once you get past about pick 110, then you take a shot on that type of guy. And we’ll see if he goes earlier than that. We’ll have to recalibrate if he does. But I think Tar belongs on fantasy rosters this year. Even if you look at the team like, oh, they just got, you know, they got more wingy. Yeah, that’s true. Uh, but someone’s just going to get pushed down a rung. Probably a men Thompson. What the Rockets don’t have is proper floor spacing cuz they sent out their two the two guys that made the most three-pointers on the team and they brought back one like KD who’s not a I mean he’s a great three-point shooter but doesn’t take that many of them and then Dorian Finny Smith who yeah he can space the floor a little bit um but he’s not a guy that’s going to create from out there. And that’s why one reason why I wonder if DFS does start kind of pushing ahead of some of these other guys. Um, but I do still think Taran can get his 24 25 minutes and for that reason you should probably have him on your roster. Them’s the Rockets. I think they’re in business. I think the Rockets are going to have a great year. I’m sure there’s going to be a little bit of a learning curve at the front end, but KD’s so damn good on offense that that usually shortens it up a little bit, especially when you’ve got a team where everybody can defend like an you know what. I mean, they’re going to be defending the crap out of the ball. They lost Dylan Brooks, but like Dorian Finey Smith is a great defender. Jaylen Green was a fine defender. KD is, too. They’re still going to play good defense. They’re still going to rebound and now they’ve got Kevin Durant. So, I don’t know. I think the transition is going to be relatively smooth because they weren’t winning games with offense anyway. Thanks for watching everybody. That’s the Rockets. That’s your week. Back next week. We’ll keep working our way through this Southwest. Say that. Subscribe.

Kevin Durant’s move to the Rockets elevates the ceiling for one of the league’s best defensive teams, and he might just need to do even more on offense than he did before. Can Kevin get back inside fantasy’s top 5?

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