INSIDER: Utah’s ROUTE to PROMINENCE in the West | PITFALLS along the PATH

INSIDER: Utah’s ROUTE to PROMINENCE in the West | PITFALLS along the PATH

The Utah Jazz now have a clear defined route to respectability, importance, and winning basketball. But there are many pitfalls on the route. Next on Locked on Jazzum. You are Locked on Jazz, your daily podcast on the Utah Jazz, part of the Locked On podcast network, your team every day. How are you? I’m David Lock, radio voice of the Utah Jazz. Jazz NBA insider. This is Locked on Jazz. It’s your daily podcast on the Utah Jazz, giving you insight, expertise, geeky numbers, and hopefully making it way better to be a Jazz fan each and every day. Thank you so much for making Locked On Jazz your first listen of the day. We are free and available on all podcasting apps as well as YouTube. And to the everydayers, you’re the greatest. Thank you for making the show what it is. Here’s what we got today. We’ll wrap up with a thought on Jaden Springer. The Jazz released him. It’s not a big deal. It’s just I find him fascinating. The Jazz under Austin H have now built a route and it’s clear what we’re trying to do on how to be good. And one of the most frequently asked questions I get is when are we going to be good again? So let’s walk through what it’s going to take. But there are numerous sharks and pitfalls along the way in this route for the Utah Jazz. All right. So the model when we started this rebuild four three three and a half years ago and traded Donovan and Rudy the concept was at least in the way I presented it was you need a top 10 a top 20 and a top 50 player in the NBA and that was true until the teeth of this new collective baring agreement got onto the league this year and now I do not believe that to be the case anymore. It’s a little different now. We’re going to see as it evolves, but my feeling is you still need a top 10. If you look at the top best teams last year with Final Four, Shay, Brunson, Hallebert, and Ant, then Donovan, and Tatum and in the East and LeBron or Luca maybe for for LA, you still had that. And Kawawaii when he was on for part of last year is obviously close. It’s where you still have to have that guy. That’s I don’t think going to change in the game of basketball anytime soon. Part two though is different now. I don’t think Oklahoma City has a top 20 player. I’m not sure the Knicks have a top 20 player. I’m not sure Indiana has a top 20 player. And I’m not sure Minnesota has a top 20 player. I’m not sure you have top 10, top 20, and top 50. I think you have top 10 and then I think we’re going to call it you have highlevel depth. You’ve heard the phrase I use a lot 240 minutes. You’ve got to have 240 minutes. There’s no question on that. Now, if you have a gap in having 240 minutes, which is 48 minutes times five. So, you don’t you have complete NBA players for all those minutes. You’ve got I I think it’s too big a hurdle to get over and come in a seven game series. We I think we saw that last year. New York had 240. Minnesota had a really Minnesota all year long I was like have the best eight-man rotation in the league. Oklahoma City had Shay and then had 240 and then and clearly Indiana did too. So I think that’s the new model rather than a top 20 and a top 50. It’s high level depth that fit inside of the new salary structure with a hard second cap or second apron and you work with that. So how do the Jazz get there and what is this route that Austin H to me has clearly now defined and then what’s it going to take? So the first one obviously is the top 10 player and that’s the hurdle. That’s the biggest that’s not a hurdle. That’s Mount Everest. These other ones are hurdles. That’s actually what’s interesting about this. Now, what I used to say is you probably had to climb Everest, McKinley, and Reineer. Now, you’ve got to climb Everest because you got to get a top 10 player, but then the other ones are not that big a deal. If you manage your team right, I think you can find them and do them. So, how do the Jazz get a top 10 player in the NBA? It has to be out of our draft. We do not have a player on our roster other than Ace Bailey who might be a top 10 player in the NBA. And so it’s out of our 2025 pick, which is Ace Bailey, our 2026 pick, which is going to be a top five, and probably our 2027 pick, and hopefully not our 2028 pick. But the fact is, when you draft early, you’re hitting kind of every other pick there. maybe twothirds your picks and to get one of them to be a top 10 picks even harder but that’s where a lot of them come from right 50% of the guys I just mentioned if you actually run through the guys I mentioned before it’s a little over 50% of the guys I mentioned are top are top picks right Donovan Tatum or excuse me Tatum LeBron Luca like those guys are that’s where they’re picked if you can go get a Brunson somewhere that’s amazing Um, but your best chance is to do it by drafting early. So, Ace Bailey is our first chance. Our second chance is whoever we draft next year. Everyone, minute I say that, you all think AJ immediately. Fine. Think AJ in your head. And then the question is, does it take a 2027 pick or a 2028 pick? Because you didn’t hit. There’s pitfall number one is that we could be in this cycle of having to try to grab that player for a while. There’s no other route to get that top 10 player for us. There’s just it doesn’t exist. So, pitfall number one is for us to get there is that you don’t hit on a top 10 player in your early draft pick. So, it’s actually really hard to do. The other pitfall here is that you have to make a call on whether you have that top 10 player. And if you call wrong and start to move the chips in before you have that guy, then you’re really stuck. This is to me the biggest pitfall that exists. So if you look at Sheay, I think Sheay became an all-star in like his fourth year. And you look at Hallebertton, he became an all-star in his fifth year. And you look at Tatum, he became an all-star in his third year. So you know, pretty early on these guys. But let’s say Ace Bailey has a good rookie year, but we’re not quite sure yet. And then Ace Bailey gets into his second year and he’s pretty damn good. And we’re like, “Okay, we got a piece.” And AJ is in his first year at the end of that second year. Like, are are you sure? Cuz you’re not, but you kind of have to go at some point. So, pitfall number one in this process is that you have these young pieces and you’re one year in of the 2025 pick and the 2026 pick and you’re still and you probably at that point still get a pretty good 2027 pick. I’m pretty certain we’re going to have three top five picks in a row here. And you’re going to hope two of those hit. And you’re probably going to have to go chips in or start the process of chips in while you have those three guys at year two, year one, and not played yet and you’re not entirely sure whether or not they’re that good yet. And if you’re wrong, then it’s a huge problem anyway because you’ve missed on top five picks. Now you’re gonna be Washington or Sacramento for a while and you actually have to do it kind of Orlando did which is Orlando did this realized they didn’t have it pivoted out of it went back into they and now come back with Paulo Bonero and France Vogen if you go back and look at Orlando they go in they think they’re coming out they realize oh crap we don’t have it they go back down and then they come back up again so there’s pitfall number one that’s length that’s some time that it’s going to take too right if Ace Bailey is everything. It all comes together. Maturity clicks in and a lot of ifs. He’s an all-star by year four. He’s an all-star by tw the season that finishes in 2030. If AJ or Boozer or whoever our next pick or pick is for, and we have an exciting draft announcement coming unlocked on here shortly. Um, whoever that is, that’s 2031 probably before they’re an all-star and probably 2030 before you know. So, there’s pitfall number one is that you’re in this process that we’ve built, you’re going to have to go in stages two and three prior to really knowing whether you have the pieces. And going early can be super detrimental, but the time by which you go may not be necessarily dictated by your talent. That’s next on Locked on Jazz. Monday edition of Locked on Jazz is brought to you by Murdoch Chevy located in Logan and in Woodscross. The Chevy truck is everything you could ever imagine. From the Colorado, which is the zippy fun little truck that gets all your utility stuff done to the Silverado, sitting up top in the king poo like on a lazy boy chair. Presu, what’s the word I’m looking for? Perusing the scene from the top of power in your Silverado. Plus, the great lineup of SUVs, the Blaze and the Trailblazers, the Utah County Assault vehicles with the Tahoe and the Suburban. It’s all at Chevy and Murdoch Chevy is there for you in Woodscross and in Logan. 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You like John Collins, you’ve got a bunch of cap space and you’re going to use it and that’s where you’re going to increase your depth. And then there’s another mechanism we’ll get to another. The biggest pitfall here is timing. Because the way this lines up when you have Ace Bailey coming, we’ll call it AJ again, and whoever the next guy is, those three guys coming. Well, your trade exception expires coming up here. So, by February of this year on the trade exception, the Jazz have to kind of make a decision. Are we using the trade exception to bail someone out of the luxury tax and gain assets? Or are we trying to use the trade exception as a way to gain a talented player by July 7th of next year on the John Collins trade exception? We have a bunch of cap space available next year. We could roll it over, but you’ve got to get to the salary floor. So, you’re not going to be able to roll over a lot of it unless you sign a bunch of one-year contracts. And so, you’re kind of forced to use it, but it’s a little early to use it. Like, we’ll only have one year of base. have never seen draft pick 2026 play. We’ll never have seen draft pick 2027. We don’t know who it is. We’ll know what it is on 26. So it gets early there to start adding that depth in all in those some of those ways. So that’s the pitfall number two is the timing on this gets very very difficult. The other key that’s very clear this is where it’s I think this is exciting. So we literally have a path now. And then the other path of this is the building of your own highlevel depth. And this is what I think you can really do as a team. The Knicks did it by trading and acquiring, but they use their assets to do it. Minnesota generally actually did a little bit of each. Jade McDaniels was their draft pick, but Mike Connley was traded and acquired and Rudy Goar was traded and acquired. Um Nikil Alexander we’ll talk about in a second. Indiana did a kind of combination of these two things. They drafted Miles a long time ago. They picked up um Nie Smith. No, Nh Nebar. They drafted. So it’s a little bit of um both those things. But here’s what I get exciting about this upcoming season for us. Which of our players that we have on the roster right now, Sans Bailey, can become that high level depth? And that’s where all these draft picks the Jazz have acquired to me and these swings are important. Now the Jazz have taken a little bit of an approach on the Phoenix when they trade the three picks for Phoenix’s one that they’re that one that that pick they need to have to try to be a 10 top 10 player. That’s that’s trying to take a swing at an extra piece in 31 when you’ve started this process up and then Phoenix is play you’re adding in a really good player to a emerging team in 31. That’s an exciting possibility for the 3132 season. But Walker, what we need to have happen here is Walker continues to grow into a bonafide legitimate starting center in the NBA who plays 2530 minutes, has enough offensive skills, that concept. Lowry already has high level depth, might be a top 50 player in the NBA. Keonte we’ve talked about a lot this offseason but ideally Keiante clicks in but this is where you start to get into this game and that is if Keonte doesn’t get in get going and doesn’t become that sets you back right I mean the big setback is if Ace Bailey 26 pick AJ 27 pick don’t pan out that sets you back massively massively but by the way it’s also why you got to shoot for Ace Bailey in the draft. Like if your other choice is Trey Johnson or Jeremiah Fierce, like Ace Bailey has a chance to be a top 10 player in the NBA. I don’t think the other guys do. It’s why you got to shoot Ace Bailey with that fifth pick if he’s there on the board. And so the same thing on a minor level is if okay, we’re three years in, we realize Keith’s just the ball’s never going to go into the defense is never going to happen. That’s a setback. because then we look at that draft and we’ll see what happens with Taylor. I think the expectations have dropped because of the injury. Certainly, we’ll see. But I also don’t know that anyone ever thought Taylor Hendricks with his lack of experiences, I think he’s a rotation player in the NBA. I don’t think anyone ever thought he was a top 10 player in the NBA. I don’t think anyone ever thought he was going to be an all-star. So then you have beyond key, you’ve got Flip, Cody, Sensah, Hendricks, Clayton, Collier. You’ve got six shots at guys becoming a rotation player in the NBA. Kei to me is a little more advanced here. Key, you’re really hoping like, okay, he he can really score. He can play off the bounce. He he can do some things other players in the NBA can’t do. He has some elite skills. And so, can Key become top six guy on your roster, bonafide scorer, part of the really a real piece? Same thing with Walker. And then you’ve got Larry. Now, now you’re beginning. So, let’s say Walker clicks. Let’s say Lowry stays there. Let’s say Keiante begins to click. You’ve got three of those highlevel depth pieces. If Ace is emerging, you’re beginning to feel pretty good. And then like it all starts to come together a little bit. You don’t need Flip, Cody, Sense, Hendricks, Clayton, and Collier all to hit and you don’t need their roles become smaller, which makes it more likely that they’re going to hit. You’re suddenly asking Flip to be an eighth guy. Oh, I think he can probably do that. You’re asking Clayton to be a backup point guard. Oh, I think he can do that. If you’re asking Clayton to be like a Nemard, maybe he can do that. If you’re asking Hendrickx to be your fifth starter, oh, I think he can do that. And then you start to piece in, this is where the trade exception and your cap space. And now you’re bringing in and like that we like to talk about, but now you bring in the Jaylen Brown two years from now when Boston can’t quite put it back together and they got to get off it. This is where you bring in I don’t know. It’ be kind of crazy, but like I don’t know why they’d ever get rid of him, but the Evan Mobley or some who’s probably gonna be a top 20 player by then. So you you know that’s where Jaylen Williams decides actually I want my own team and comes to play with his brother. I like that scenario and that’s how this thing starts to build. And for this is what makes this upcoming season so exciting for Flip Cody Sensah Hendricks Clayton and Collier. If Keiante can go, this is it’s an if, then that what you’re asking out of them gets to be less. If Keonte doesn’t, well then all of a sudden we need a really significant piece out of Flip, Cody Sens, Hendricks, Collier, and Clayton. I I don’t know if they can do that. We don’t know yet. I’m not saying they can’t. I just said I don’t know. And the ask is bigger. There’s a nasty truth to how this gets successful also and a hidden gem aspect. We’ll get to that next unlocked on Jess. The nasty truth element here is you got to get off guys. Truly, when you look back at what Oklahoma City did really, really well is they got off guys. What frankly, Indie New York did pretty well. They got off some guys. What teams have a tendency to not do is get off guys. But on flip, Cody sense Hendricks, Clayton, and Collier, you can have things you really like. call your speed, Bryce’s shooting, Cody’s length, Hendrick’s body, Clayton’s gumption, flips, offensive prowess. But as we’ve talked about, if they have something that jacks the game, a deficiency that really doesn’t let you run your offense or a deficiency that means your defensive schemes are blasted because people just go at them and it’s not going to work, get off them. Now, what’s tricky on all those guys is because they’ve gotten time, they’ve shown some real promise. But if you run through Oklahoma City, Trey man, Theo Maladin, I can run the list. Jeremiah Robinson Earl, they got off guys. You’ve got to be willing to get off guys. The other one that Oklahoma City did brilliantly is Isaiah Joe, Kendrick Williams, Aaron Wiggins. Wiggins was a late second round draft pick. Isaiah Joe and Kendrick Williams were free agents that Oklahoma City saw something and let develop. And the key here is by getting off the other guys. Among Jen, I can just run the list. Pokey, I mean, they missed on a ton. They allowed these other players who they picked up as free agents, who they weren’t as attached to, to emerge and develop and have a spot on their team. The Jazz tried it last year with KJ Martin and Jaden Springer and they’re trying it with Elijah Harkas. Who are these guys that you can find out there that have a role on your team when you get good that are free agent? And that role is probably at the end of the bench, right? Kendrick Williams is not an everyame player. Isaiah Joe was kind of in and out during the playoffs, but there for most of the regular season. It’s pretty vital during the regular season. But those are interesting pieces, but they never happen. Aaron Wiggins is better than that. He’s become a pure rotation player. They never happen unless you’re willing to get off your guys to open up the time and opportunity for these other guys. And you’ve got to be scouting brilliantly. Indiana did this. Indiana does this with Obie Toppam, Aaron Kneesmith where they went and grabbed players, second contract players that didn’t pan out. That’s as important here in the process that not every one of these players has to come from your draft picks. They don’t all have to be your own. Your front office has got to be willing to get off players. And I think that’s cruel and unusual, but true. We’ll see what Indiana does with Benedict Mather, but they dropped Chris Dwarte fast. They got off Goatazi fast. They got off Aaron Holidayiday fast. They hit on Nemhard with the 31st pick. They hit on Matherin as the sixth pick. They hit Shepard’s been okay for them at the 26th pick. That was awfully nice. And they haven’t picked for the last two years basically. But that’s going to be the other part that’s just as interesting and as exciting in this upcoming season is now that that path is clear, you have this group of guys flip and this again the what you’re asking out of them. If Walker can emerge, if Lowry stays, if Keante emerges, Walker solidifies, let’s call Keonte emerges, Walker solidifies, and one of your young guns that you’re getting in over the next two or three seasons going to be that guy. Now, you don’t need that many pieces in free agency if you’re hitting on half of or even two of Flip, Cody, Sensibah, Hendricks, Clayton, and Collier, right? If you have Ace Bailey and you’ve got 2026 draft pick AJ and let’s say they’re both going to be great and 27’s pick busts because that’s the reality or 67%. And you have Walker and you have Lowry and you have Keante, you now got five and you’re going to add a free agent at six. Maybe another that’s seven and maybe that’s second draft players Obie Toppam or Aaron Smith for your seven. If you’re eight, nine, and 10, I only need three of Flip, Cody, Sensible, Hendricks, Clayton, and Collier, only need three out of six. Maybe only two. If I get four, then the free agent I sign gets I can spend more money on it because I have more players under salary control that are good enough to play that I can go get I can overplay Isaiah Harkinstein 30 million. I can go trade for Alex Caruso and overpay him. That’s the model. That’s the route that has been built here. And the pitfalls are real. The pitfall one is you’ve probably got to move forward before you know if your young guys hit top three, but you got to hit on them. Pitfall two is whether or not you can get the timing right. Pitfall three is whether you’re willing to get off your guys. Pitfall four is just still that Utah thing of whether we’re going to be able to sign that free agent. We just got to be honest about that. Like that’s using the cap space and the extension that we don’t know yet. Indiana didn’t really do that. Oklahoma City did it with Harkinstein and Crusoe. New York obviously did it with much higher players in trades and deals. All right, I want to wrap on Jaden Springer one because I thought he was delightful and I so it’s too bad that he um and my smiley face was not about Jaden Springer being cut. Um and I liked I think that Jaden Springer is exactly kind of what we’re talking here. The Jazz took a shot at him. They had him in for a little bit. his shooting is not good enough and they cut him. What’s crazy about Jaden Springer is he’s 22 years old. He was the 28th pick of the 2021 draft four drafts ago. And as we sit here four years later on the 28th of July, he is out of the NBA. Like it happens fast. I’m not saying this story to me is not truly about Jaden Springer, but this is a kid who was a McDonald’s All-American, had every accolade, went to Tennessee, had a fairly decent year. He actually shot 44% from three, and whatever reason got to the NBA, and like it just didn’t hit. And this can happen fast. And this is a lesson. I don’t think any of our guys are on that path right now. So, I’m not like it’s not a lesson specifically to any of our players, but I hope our players noticed it when he was in camp because that’s the reality of what the NBA is. As Will Hardy says, the NBA is not stopping for you at all. I do like that. I I like the Jaden Springer flyer. Like you’ve got to figure out when we’re trying to sign the Kendrick Williams, Isaiah Joe type pieces or go grab the Aaron Nesmith or the OB Tophams or the Nquille Alexander Walkers in Minnesota. Like you got to figure out who those guys are. and the release late draft pick who shot 20% from three and hoping he can shoot from see if he can figure out a shot I or get him up and close and personal and find out if there’s a reason why it’s not working and everyone got off him. Okay, good. Second draft players like Jerice Walker is a really interesting one to watch without Miles Turner. He’s probably going to get time so it’s not going to happen. But who are the second draft players? I wouldn’t probably second draft anybody out of the Cody Williams Isaiah Call or Kyle Filiposki draft because it I think it might be one of the worst ever. Um, and if a guy’s not making it, I think it’s just because he’s not making it. Um, but that’s probably overstretching. I’d be a little just in regards to Dice Walker, I’d be a little careful on that whole unless Walker was the draft before, actually. So, you know, yeah, who are those second draft players? We’ll take a look at them coming up here. See who the knee of the Tophams can be. All right, that’s the route for the Jazz. Uh, I’m doing this week. Leaf Teen takes over for August, just to give you a heads up on all that. Now we send you the first ever 247 national NBA channel. Lockdown NBA plus the daily locked on NBA still coming at you each and every day here on the Lockdown Podcast Network.

David Locke, radio voice of the Utah Jazz and Jazz NBA Insider, outlines the Utah Jazz’s path to NBA success, emphasizing the need for a top-10 player and high-level depth. He discusses the challenges of drafting and developing talent, with hopes pinned on future picks like Ace Bailey and potential 2026 selections. Locke explores the intricacies of timing roster moves, managing cap space, and making crucial decisions before fully knowing players’ potential.

The podcast dives into the importance of developing homegrown talent like Walker Kessler, Keyonte George, and Lauri Markkanen, while also highlighting the need to acquire complementary pieces through trades and free agency. Locke stresses the significance of scouting and being willing to move on from underperforming players, citing examples from successful rebuilds by teams like Oklahoma City and Indiana. He concludes by reflecting on the rapid nature of NBA careers, using Jaden Springer’s journey as a cautionary tale for young prospects.

0:00 Intro: Utah Jazz’s path to success
4:39 Drafting a top 10 player is crucial
14:57 Developing high-level depth from current roster
20:09 Importance of moving on from underperforming players
25:50 Potential pitfalls in Jazz’s rebuilding strategy
28:24 Lessons from Jaden Springer’s NBA journey

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