The Most Confusing Player in the NBA

The Most Confusing Player in the NBA

The NBA is a star-driven league. It’s not a sport like football or soccer where even your weakest link might swing the outcome. Because in basketball, historically speaking, the more star power you have, the better shape I assume you’re going to be in. And I say assume because thank you Brooklyn Nets for skewing my entire worldview. From the moment a player walks across that stage and hears their name called to the moment they hang it up and become a 24-hour fitness legend, their value in a league is based on one thing, their probability of becoming a star. And if that probability is determined early on that it’s dubious, for example, Gay Vincent, sorry pal, but you might as well start looking for real estate in that corner. Well, in that case, the NBA is also a role-driven league. It’s a microcosm of society. Everybody’s got to play their part to keep this little dirt ball rolling. And winning games in the NBA follows that same thing. If you handle your job and I handle mine, we’re going to be just fine. Most of the time in the NBA, though, that sort of role distinction or star trajectory is obviously defined within the first few seasons. But there is one really strange, and I mean really strange, exception to this norm. Because seven years in, the only thing we know about him is that we really don’t know anything. Enter R.J. Barrett, the man once known as the Maple Mamba. And while Basketball Reference still claims that’s his nickname, nobody knows if that’s a nod to Kobe Bryant or a bottle of maple syrup at Costco. So, in today’s video, I want to explore why R.J. Barrett is the most confusing player in the league, and why he’s become such a polarizing figure in the basketball community, depending on who you ask. Let me start off by talking about some positives. There’s already too much negativity in this world. As a third overall pick in the 2019 NBA draft, Barrett came into the league with the expectation that he’d be the type of star who could one day change a franchise. Now, obviously, that didn’t end up happening in New York because they fed him into a whole different country. But now that he’s with the Raptors, take a look at some of these numbers. Last year, there were only 10 players in the entire NBA who averaged at least 21 points, five rebounds, and five assists, which, if you ask me, is a pretty solid and well-rounded statline. And among those 10 players, you might as well call this the All-Star metric because eight of them made the All-Star team. Luca would have made it too if it wasn’t for injury. But as for RJ, he was the only outlier. But based strictly on the counting numbers, he had every right to be in that conversation. That alone is a testament to how productive and multiaceted RJ Barrett actually is. Especially in today’s NBA where do it all self-creating wings are a luxury. Barrett certainly fits that mold of a player as someone who not only creates his own offense but creates scoring opportunities for those around him. Whatever your opinion of R.J. is. Even if you’re that kid who actually relates to that corny maple syrup joke I made. What isn’t up for debate is his offensive versatility. He’s got that coveted blend of guard skills that define the elite wings in the NBA. The Tatums, the Durant, even podcast Paul. if you squint hard enough. Guys who can profile as do it all creators that take teams to the next level. And speaking of self-creation, if you look at unassisted field goals among forwards last season, basically how many times a guy was told, “Yo, here’s the ball. Go get us a bucket.” RJ Barrett ranked 11th in the league. And get this, every other name on that list has been an all-star at least once. Based on just a raw skill set standpoint, the numbers do suggest that the guy sure does have the potential to be franchise saving. And if you want more proof of how versatile he is, last season he averaged 12.6 6 drives per game, which would have been fourth among small forwards. Created 13.4 points from assists, which would have been six, and scored 7.7 points a game from driving to the basket, which would have been seven. So, I know what you’re probably thinking. Well, Jack, it kind of sounds like this guy is a star. What’s the confusion? Well, Jimmy, if the question were that easy, this video would have ended already, but I still need to hit that 10-minute mark. Now, just because you can do everything doesn’t mean you do everything well. It’s the classic case of a difference in kind versus a difference in degree. Kind of like when people lazily say WBY and Bull are the same player. Sure, they might fit a similar archetype, but the degree to which WBY operates within that mold is on a completely different level. And that’s kind of the RJ Bear dilemma. Yeah, he’s a jack of all trades, but that also means he’s a master of none. And really, that’s the main separator between him and the stars we were comparing him to earlier. One of the biggest things holding him back from reaching that true star tier is his efficiency. Among the 20 players last season, with a usage rate of at least 28%, R.J. ranked dead last in true shooting percentage. And not only that, he also had the second fewest wins of that group. When teams hand a guy that kind of usage, they’re signaling they want to build around him. But in RJ’s case, that opportunity just hasn’t translated to winning. He’s just not that effective as a score at the stage of his career. Even though his shot distribution and touches suggest star level usage, whether it’s with the Knicks or the Raptors, the question for R.J. has never been volume. Both those teams either drafted or acquired him and put him in an offensive system where he was the focal point, and understandably so. After all, his greatest strength is being the creator, but he just doesn’t create that well. And that also applies to his playmaking. You see the five assists per game or the fact that he ranked sixth in the NBA in points created from assists and think, okay, solid passer. But the advanced numbers tell a different story. When you filter for players with a similar usage rate, he had the second highest turnover percentage among small forwards only behind LeBron. And the other guys in that range, all playoff caliber players. Obviously, being a star doesn’t mean you have to be perfect. turnovers and missing shots is all part of the game. But if they’re not leading to wins and you’re supposed to be that guy entrusted to get that done, then objectively speaking, you’re not a star. You’re simply just putting up empty numbers. And if we look back at the only two winning seasons of R.J.’s career with the Knicks, there seems to be a trend. On both of those teams, R.J. wasn’t the star player, but was instead playing as a complimentary piece. And the moment that happened, his production took a major hit. Take a look at the splits. When he played without Brunson, he averaged 216 and four on 52% shooting. But with Brunson, those numbers fell in 195 and 3 on a terrible 42%. Same thing with Randall. Without Randall, he put up 226 and4 on 39% which is still really bad efficiency. But with Randall again, he declined, averaging 185 and three. In short, when R.J. isn’t the guy, his numbers dip. And when he is the guy, his team doesn’t win. So, if the conclusion is that R.J. isn’t a star, then like I mentioned earlier, he needs to come in and be a good NBA Samaritan and play his role. But that raises a new question. Why is it so hard for someone as talented as RJ Barrett to thrive as a complimentary piece? And maybe more importantly, why have both teams he’s played for been so eager to try and trade him? If he’s putting up numbers that resemble all-star production, why not just hold him and hope he eventually figures it out? Well, here’s the main problem. The role player archetype today is built on two core skills, shooting the three and playing defense. We now live in the era of the 3 and D wing. But in terms of this sort of winning formula, R.J. doesn’t really fit. He’s not a great shooter and he’s not a great defender. Let’s study the last 10 finals teams, winners and runners up, and isolate the starting role players I label as 3 and D. These are the players expected to catch and shoot playoff stars and defend their matchup. Out of the 20 players in that sample, only three shot worse from deep from R.J.’s career average. So yeah, being able to space the floor is a massive part of the championship recipe, and that’s where R.J. comes up short. The other half of the equation is of course the defense. And if you’re not going to be a reliable knockdown shooter, the least you can do is lock up on the other end. Which is exactly how the three players who shot worse than R.J. still earn their minutes. They brought elite defense to the table. But R.J. is nowhere near that sort of level. In isolation defense, opponents shot 59.5% against him, which ranks in the 2.5th percentile. On pick and roll defense, it was 42.1% and in transition, 52.6. In other words, below average across the board in every major defensive category. If you’re not spacing the floor and you’re not stopping anyone on defense, it becomes hard to justify keeping you on the floor in highle games. And to put it nicely, RJ Bear has somehow become a no three and no D player. That’s the core of the issue. Sure, the stats might look solid on fantasy, but he’s never been the driving force behind a winning team, and he consistently struggles to fit next to other stars when he’s not the guy. Throw in the growing label of becoming a toxic asset, and it becomes even trickier. There are things about R.J. that are undeniably special. Gifts that can’t be taught and skills other players would kill to have. And then there are major weaknesses, core fundamentals that he still hasn’t developed, but are absolutely essential to playing today’s NBA. And that’s what makes evaluating RJ Barrett so interesting. You’re not just weighing what he is now, but what he could be. If you’re an optimist, it’s easy to talk yourself into upside. He’s only 25, still years away from his prime, and already putting up all-star numbers. So logically, with a few tweaks, some refinement, maybe he figures it out. But if you’re a half glass empty type of person, the warning signs are hard to ignore. And maybe the clearest one is free throw percentage. It’s often a reliable predictor of shooting development. The better a guy shoots free throws, the more likely he is to grow as a shooter. But R.J. shoots under 70%. And last season, he dipped all the way to 63, which is not at all trending in the right direction. Overall, putting this all together, I genuinely believe RJ Bear is the most confusing player in the league right now. And what makes me so confident in saying that? Because after spending days researching this guy, I still don’t know what to make of him. The best way I can describe R.J. right now is this. He’s a $37 million mystery box like the one in Call of Duty. On one hand, you might hit the jackpot and pull the ray gun, a franchise changing piece that transforms everything. But then, if you’re not so lucky, you might get stuck with a little pistol and realize you burn a ton of resources on something that won’t help you win. As a call back to the beginning of the video, the NBA is a star- driven league and a role- driven league, and so far R.J. Barrett is neither. But heading into year eight, I’ve got a feeling this is a make it or break a year. And 10 months from now, we’ll finally have a concrete answer. Does this very talented player put it all together and start impact winning? Or does his inability to master the basics send him drifting into NBA no man’s land? I guess we’re going to have to find out.

RJ Barrett might be the most confusing player in the NBA. He isn’t quite a star, but his skillset also doesn’t allow him to slide into a simple role player spot. That awkward middle ground is what makes his future so hard to project — and why every season feels like a new debate about what he actually is. In this video, we break down why RJ Barrett’s role is so undefined: his streaky scoring, inconsistent shooting, flashes of playmaking, and why his game doesn’t neatly fit into the “star” or “role player” box.

If you’ve been wondering why RJ Barrett is so hard to figure out, this deep dive explains exactly where the confusion comes from.

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This video contains clips used for commentary and educational purposes. All footage belongs to the NBA and its respective teams.

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