Atlanta Hawks: How De’Aaron Fox’s contract extension impacts Trae Young (and more)

Atlanta Hawks: How De’Aaron Fox’s contract extension impacts Trae Young (and more)

On today’s show, De’Arren Fox signs a monster extension. And how does that impact Trey Young, you might ask? We’ll get into that and much more coming up. You are Locked On Hawks, your daily Atlanta Hawks podcast, part of the Locked On podcast network, your team every day. Hello friends, welcome to episode 2033 of the locked on hawks podcast. I am your host Brad Roland coming to you on a Monday evening into Tuesday and today’s show is brought to the folks at Monarch Money. Take control your finances right now with Monarch Money and use code locked on NBA at monarchmoney.com for half off your first year. I also want to encourage you at the top of the show as I always do to make Locked on Hawks your first listen each and every day. Check us out and subscribe to the show anywhere you find your podcast. That includes Apple and Spotify. We’re also on YouTube. So, please like this video as you are watching it. And of course, tell your friends about this podcast as well. It’s been busy on the show in recent days. Last week, we had three episodes wrapping up July, beginning August. Had two episodes with Glenn Willis, good friend of the podcast on 29. Also did a mailbag show that focused heavily on the last roster spot for the Hawks offseason grades as well as much more including Trey Young. And look, occasionally I will take you behind the curtain a little bit in my planning process for some transparency. And I was going to publish a player capsule tonight with Glenn Willis. They’ll that will be published later on. It’s still it’s been recorded. We’ll do that. But I got a bevy of questions about De’arren Fox signing a max extension with the Spurs today. And basically how that might impact and affect Trey Young and his negotiations with the Hawks for his deal that could happen as soon as right now. Exactly. So, I will spend a good chunk of today’s episode on that topic when it comes to Fox’s deal, how it impacts Trey, the status of all that, and uh we’ll get into a mailback question at the end of the podcast as well, if I have time to do that before we get out of here. So, first the specifics. Darren Fox was eligible for the same exact extension, four years and roughly $229 million beginning in 2627. It’s the same deal that Trey Young is eligible for to the number. The exact same deal that Trey is allowed to sign as soon as right now. And by all accounts, that is the deal that he got today. Dear Fox, when he was eligible to sign it, which was actually today was the first day he was able to sign it, it happened right away. And for a while, the entire league was kind of looking ahead to Luca Donic and Dear Fox becoming Maxel eligible, extension eligible basically on back-to-back days in August. and it has to do with timing. Those guys um signed their previous deals at a certain time and they had it doesn’t matter. It’s it’s an NBA CBA quirk, but they were finally eligible early in August to sign Max Extensions. Both those guys now signed. Now, Luca’s deal is very different. He was traded. He had different limitations. That one I’ll put to the side a little bit. He signed a short deal, all that in LA, all that. But the focus is on Dr. Fox because there are both differences and similarities between the situations that Fox has in San Antonio and what Trey is in right now in Atlanta. Obviously, the first similarity is that they have the same exact contract eligibility. The other big one, of course, is that they play the same position. Um, so the comparisons there are, I would say, inevitable. They’re also totally reasonable in some respects. Now, there is nuance here, as I like to talk about on the podcast all the time. There is nuance. But one question I’ve been getting basically the main one is like how does this impact Trey? In some ways that’s kind of an impossible question to answer unless you talk to his agent and also to the Hawks. Those are the two parties that actually matter in addition to Trey himself. It’s kind of three parties. It’s Trey, Trey’s agent, and the Hawks. I have something of a feel for the negotiations. I’ve done multiple episodes on the extension negotiations between the Hawks and Trey, including literally one last week that was part of the mailbag episode that I did five days ago. I’ve also been clear to say that there is some certainty with this and some actual negotiation taking place. It was never going to be a cut and dry here you go Trey here’s the max extension and he signs it. Now I won’t rule anything out but that was not the dynamic that was in play here. It was not going to be a oneh hour negotiation in the way that it sometimes is for different different deals. That brings us back to Fox and from some of the buzz behind the scenes and just the reality that he signed the first day he was eligible. This one actually seemed to be cut and dry on San Antonio side. Now whether that it should have been cut and dry or not, different issue. We’ll come back to that later on. Um I heard and many others have heard and speculated etc. basically from the moment that the Spurs traded for Fox about six months ago that he was probably going to sign the Max Intension as soon as he was eligible to do so, which again that’s the dynamic. Um, to be clear, the Spurs and Fox are not allowed or were not allowed to actually agree to anything. I’m not saying they did. Just put that out there for liability purposes. Um, they weren’t allowed to do that. But there has been so much smoke and it is not a wellkept secret that Fox was at least likely to get the Max from the Spurs. And a lot of people just believe that it was basically just part of the trade. Honestly, I’m not saying that it definitely was. I don’t know, but that’s definitely been out there. Now, if you’re old like me, Joe Smith pops up and that was uh the infamous situation where the Timberwolves actually literally wrote a deal down on paper with Joe Smith. They got popped for that. It cost them a lot of draft picks. It was a bad situation. I’m not saying that, but more of a wink wink. There was maybe a conversation that was had in the middle of of negotiation between Fox, etc. And uh kind of seeing where all sides were headed with this one, basically post trade, like all right, you’re going to trade for Dear Fox. The plan would be to extend him at apparently the backs. Now, this is not locked on Spurs. I will not keep doing this necessarily, but it’s also relevant, I think, in the trade discussion and in the comparison between the two. And I think it’s a pretty bad deal for San Antonio. Honestly, one reason why I think people have thought that it might have been a wink wink between the Spurs and Fox’s camp is that the Spurs in between those two things won they didn’t win the lottery. They got to number two in the lottery. It was a big win for them and they drafted the best player available which is Dylan Harper who was a point guard and that seemingly somehow had no impact on Fox’s market. Also, they have Stefan Castle who won rookie of the year. He’s not really a point guard but he kind of is. He’s kind of a combo guard. And so now they have Castle, Harper, and a full 30% max for the Iron Fox. That’s a lot of capital assigned to point guard. Um, at the same time, the Spurs clearly got the sign off from Wimby to make the deal for Fox. Like, they don’t trade for Fox in in in February without Wemby liking that idea, I would say. And they chose to follow through on the Maxion. So, to be clear, I don’t like the deal for the Spurs. I think it’s a bad deal. Fox is a good player. There’s no question about that. is very good. He’s been an all-star team. He averaged about 25 and six the last 5 years combined. He’s obviously quite good. With that said, I don’t believe personally that he is worth the 30% max right now. And he’s 27 right now. He’ll be 28 in December. This doesn’t even start until a year plus from now. It starts at a 30% max with full raises for four years to the point where he’s actually going to be making more than $60 million in his age 32 season in 2029 2030. And if I don’t believe he’s that actually I don’t think he’s that player now, like I don’t think I would want to pay Fox 30% max literally right now. Now, I’m not saying that that’s a disaster, but if I don’t believe that he’s that level of a player right now, the chances that he’s still this good, even four years from now, four and a half, five years from now, pretty unlikely, I would say. Now, and I get it, a lot of guys in this kind of general tier have gotten max deals for a long time. And there’s probably a discussion to be had that we’ll have or not have on this show, but certainly in the future about the changing landscape of the league, teams not being able to afford to pay this kind of player a top, you know, 30% max contract because Fox is more of like a top 40 or 50 guy in the league versus a top 20 guy in the league. That’s a big difference. Obviously, if you’re paying Sheay or Jokic or Loop or whatever, like that you just have to do it. Um, this level of player, I think you have to be more discerning on in the league now. And uh that’s again different discussion, but there you go. If you take away any of the trade minations or any of the dynamics in play with the trade uh that they made, the Spurs and the Kings for Fox and just evaluated this contract a year in advance, taking on all the extra risk of doing this a year in advance, I think it’s pretty clearly a bad deal for the Spurs. Even if you’re think I’m too low on Fox, which is fine. Maybe I am. Um people are higher on him than me. That’s fine. I would say the aging curve is not likely to be super kind to a guy who is like very reliant on being super fast and athletic, not as super like great shooter or great passer, etc. Like I think it’s unlikely that he’s a top 40 50 player at age 32. Um, and if you do the math on all that, it’s not it’s kind of it’s a pretty risky proposition I would say for the Spurs. Now, I will stop in a second on the big picture and tie it back more to Trey directly. I’ll say one more thing and then we’ll move on in a second. I believe Trey Young is better than Dearan Fox. I don’t think it’s that controversial. Honestly, I think Trey is better than Darren Fox. He’s also younger than Darren Fox. We’ll get into that. It’s kind of a tease of what I get into in a second and um talk about more about this combination and we’ll tie it more back to the Hawks in just one moment. This is brought to you by Monarch Money. You ever wish that managing your money actually felt easier? With Monarch Money, it actually can. Whether you’re growing your savings or putting a big purchase, Monarch Money puts you in the driver’s seat of your own finances. It’s like having your own personal CFO. Give you full v visibility and control of your finances. And Modern Money is more than just a budgeting app. It’s actually a complete financial command center. You can track all of your accounts, your investments, and your spending in one place. So, on top of managing your money, you’re also building wealth. 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Not everyone agrees, but I think that’s actually relatively clear in my opinion. Um, we can get into a little bit more of that right now. I would say if you want to be charitable to Fox, he is the better defensive player pretty clearly, but I would say contrary to his pre-draft reputation, his athleticism, I would say he’s not particularly good defensively. He is better than Trey, no doubt. But I think the idea of like him being this super he’s very fast and he’s bigger than Trey, but he’s not a great defender by any means. He has the edge there, but keep that in mind. He’s not Gary Payton Junior. He’s not he’s not Gary Pen, I to say. Um, offensively, it’s not even close, I don’t think. For all the efficiency questions people have about Trey at times, I get all that. His career true shooting percentage is more than two points higher than Fox’s career in that area. Last year, Trey was more efficient than Fox as a shooter. And the gap between them as passers is basically the Grand Canyon when it comes to point guards. Like for me, Trey is the best passing guard in the league. Um, if you want to say Joic, that’s fine. But as far as like guardsized players, Trey for me is the best passer in the league. If you want to say Hallebertton, okay, that’s fine, whatever. But even if you think that Trey is like a top three or four passing guard at the at a bare minimum, Fox is not anywhere near that. He is a pretty pedestrian playmaker for a point guard. totally fine passer in a vacuum, but not a great point guard. As far as passing is concerned, if you want to use any of the more advanced stats, Trey was better in EPM this year than Fox. He was better in the old 538 Raptor model. He was better than in Bball indexes. LeBron model this year has a has a higher current DPM as well. Like those are all metrics that are catchalls, but Trey is ahead in all four of those from last season. And that’s a pretty definitive thing. I know that, you know, for instance, the Ringer has um kind of active player rankings and Fox is ahead of Trey on that list. So, obviously, I’m not um he’s not unanimous. I think Trey is pretty clearly better at at the very worst. You could call it even in my opinion. I think Trey has the edge. Also, Trey is almost a full year younger than Darren Fox. Not a huge difference, but still notable that Trey is less reliant on his athlet. Like, I think Trey might age better with his skill level and his passing. Um, Fox’s elite trait is athleticism related. It’s his speed. With Trey, it’s his passing and his feel. And those things probably age a little bit better. And if you’re Trey, now Trey is smaller. You can certainly argue that point. But regardless, long story short, for me as an analyst, um, Trey is the better player who is younger. So, if you are Trey and Trey’s agent, you are probably doing back flips that a contemporary of yours in the league got the max when you probably believe you’re better than him or at least as good as he is and you’re younger than he is. But, as I’ve also been saying the whole summer and also even before this summer, it is a nuanced situation with Trey’s negotiation and Fox’s deal does not necessarily change that. I get why people think that it might um but it doesn’t necessarily change the factors in play. For one thing, I already said it, but the entire league basically assumed Fox’s deal was going to happen. So, it’s kind of baked in to the firmament of a league. It’s not as if Trey’s agent or Anie Salet will be shocked to see this deal come in. They might not agree with it, and I don’t think I don’t again, I don’t think it’s a good idea for the Spurs, but it’s great fighter for podcasts, but it’s not like a shocking development around the league. Also, the Spurs have an allNBA player in Wimi who’s still making a rookie contract right now. it’s easier for them to pay someone like Fox this deal and kind of figure it out later than where the Hawks are with already money committed to Jaylen and Porzingis and all that stuff. So, without going back over everything that I’ve already reported because look, I’ve been covering the trade negotiations for weeks and months, including literally last week on the show. But as a refresher, from what I have heard, the Hawks are unlikely to give Trey the full 4-year 229 max this summer before the season starts. They can do that. I talked about this only five days ago on the show, but Brian Winhor ESPN said pretty plainly on a podcast, it was a podcast. Well, he didn’t write it. He just said on a podcast, but that Atlanta just won’t do it. I haven’t been as definitive as that as Wendy was, but I think the spirit of that comment is what I’ve also heard. And I bet Winnie and I have some shared sources, I would guess. So, I would keep the door open for situations to change, but if you asked me, hey, will the Hawks give Trey the four-year full max this summer? My best educated guess is no on that. So, that’s one difference. I don’t believe that Fox’s deal changes that reality. I also believe Trey is a better than Fox and B I think Trey is a Max player right now, which I’ve said repeatedly. The tough thing is the reality is by the end of a massive four-year extension, he may not be anymore. Trey is younger than Fox, but he’ll still be over 30 and the, you know, the aging curve of small guards, unless you’re Chris Paul or John Stockton, is not the best. Plus, the Hawks know they have his bird rights next summer. They can pay him whatever they want to next summer and more than everybody else can if they want to. Also, there hasn’t been a screaming market for Trey in trade talks and they know that, too. So, there’s all these dynamics in play that I know that every time I talk about this, I get people that are very definitive on don’t pay him. People that are very definitive on the Hawks have to pay him. Why wouldn’t they? And there is room in between. I promise you there is. It’s not popular. I’m into nuance. It’s not always the sexiest thing. It’s not first take style. But I don’t think that this is cut and dry. I don’t um I could do 45 minutes on this. I really could. I won’t. I will say that I totally understand why everyone is comparing Fox and Trey and situations. Again, I think that Trey’s agent should absolutely be doing his job and saying and taking to the Hawks and say, “Hey, Auntie, my guy Trey is better than this guy and he got a max deal and he’s older than my guy.” That is the agent’s job. If I am Trey, that’s what I would want. If I was the agent, that’s what I’d ask for. And by the way, that’s a perfectly reasonable ask. Like, I would tell you if I thought it was crazy. If if you’re pick a lesser player like Dyson Daniels, who I like a lot. I think Dyson’s awesome. If I’m Dyson’s agent right now and I go to the Hawks and he’s he’s of course extension eligible, and I say I want the four-year max for Dyson, that to me is not a reasonable starting point. I think Dyson should get paid a lot of money, an extension, but I wouldn’t want to give Dyson the max right now. He’s not at that level. If I’m Trey’s agent, that is a very reasonable request. it is. Whether you get it or not, you can make that argument with a straight face and a stiff lip and just say, “Look, this is what it is. He’s that level of player.” That does not mean though that Anie will suddenly just be like, “You know what? Fox got it, so yeah, we’re going to give it to him.” Anie is not going to be like that. Anie is very process driven. We’ve seen that already. It’s worked so far for the Hawks. Um the factor in play is ownership. If Tony wrestler comes in the room and says, “Hey, Anie, you’re going to do this.” Tony’s decision is the final one. He’s the person that owns the team. But I think that um there’s nuance there. So we will see basically is where they whether they can find an agreement or not, whether both sides will take it into into the summer. Um the season also like they’re allowed to negotiate during the season. This is not like Dyson’s where there’s a where there’s a drop dead date. The Hawks the Hawks and Trey Young can sign an extension at any point between now and the end of June. They can go all the way that far and sign an extension. So I still think it it could it could certainly go either way. I know I said earlier, I’ll say one more time. I think the Hawks are not going to give him the full four-year max. They could give him a two-year max or three-ear max or a four-year deal at less than the max. My only real read on this is that I will be surprised. I won’t like fall on the floor and die. I’ll be surprised if the Hawks give Trey the four for 229. But if they give him four for 200, won’t be shocked. If they give him a two plus one for the max like Luca got, won’t be shocked. That kind of level of like there’s nuance there. So, in the end, I think go either way. I know Hawks fans would love it if it was more straight ahead. I think it’s clear that it’s not straight ahead or it already be done at this point in time, but regardless, the Fox deal is a very interesting wrinkle. In fact, it changed my podcast plan today, for example. It’s interesting to kind of discuss and navigate and hopefully I managed to answer at least some of the questions or most of the questions I was getting with this lengthy breakdown. But, uh, yeah, keep your, uh, eyes peeled. But I’m sure in fact during this recording I got another question just now about this on my Patreon inbox. So like it’ll keep coming. Hopefully this answers that. But if there’s more I’ll follow up on it in the future. For now we will leave this situation and come back to a mailbag question in just one moment. It’s time to fuel up and turn it up with 5-hour energy transfusion. It brings the bold grape ginger and lime flavor of your favorite golf drink minus the alcohol into a quick energizing shot. Whether it’s taking your birdies or making memories with friends, this one is a holding one for your energy game. Let’s be honest, some days on the course or off the course, you need that extra boost and pick me up to stay sharp and energized in your life. And for me as a very terrible golfer, to be honest, when I’m playing, I’m playing to have fun with my friends. If I hit a real shot or two along the way, that will keep me coming back and I’ll having I’ll be having fun no matter what is going on. And really, golf is all about good times with good people and good flavors, of course, on top of that. 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And the question comes from Jason who says, “Does the Derek Queen injury change your view of the Pelicans roster and the season projection for New Orleans? He was basically slated to be at worst their number two center behind Kavon Looney.” So in case you have not made the connection as to why I’m answering a question about the Pelicans and a draft pick, it’s because of that pick that the Hawks have unprotected in next year’s draft between either New Orleans or Milwaukee. The best of those two from the draft day trade involving Ace Newell and Derek Queen, all that fun stuff. That means the Hawks are rooting against the Pelicans all year long. And with that out of the way, Derek Queen was the rookie selected from by New Orleans from uh Maryland with the 13th pick and the Pelicans went all in for him trading that pick and a deal that’s been widely panned around the league. The Hawks got a great great great deal out of that. Uh but Queen got hurt during summer league. He has actually tore a ligament in his left wrist on July 18th. The Pells announced he actually be re-evaluated in 12 weeks. As I always say, re-evaluation does not mean return. Even if he comes back in 12 weeks, he’d miss training camp and be coming back right in the middle of the preseason, probably in like midocctober. And before I say anything else about this, I will just note on the question side um about Queen being the number two center for the Felic. Obviously, they are highly invested in Dererick Queen. There were always though major questions about whether Queen could play defense at the five at any point, much less as as a rookie. You all know I always say rookies are bad and he is probably going to want to be pretty bad defensively in particular. Um I think Kavon Looney is their best center right now for New Orleans. But they have Eve Mi a first round pick last year who was actually quite likely in my opinion to be better than Queen on the court this year at least early in the season. Mi is not as skilled as Queen but certainly a better athlete, better defensive prospect, etc., etc. He’s not awesome, but he has a he had a reasonable season last year as a rookie. First round pick again. and that experience and that defensive edge on Queen, like I think he’ll be better than Queen as a rookie and even more so now that Queen won’t have training camp and won’t have played basketball for three months when he comes back. That does matter when you lose your summer before rookie season. So, back to the Pelicans. I’m planning to do some deeper projections on New Orleans later on in the summer. I’ll have a guest on probably talk about them at some point. It’ll be a topic all year long around the Hawks. It matters a lot honestly. But as far as the question is concerned about Queen’s injury and its impact, I actually think that actually in a roundabout way, him being hurt might help the Pelicans when it comes to winning games. Again, I’m not rooting for Derek Queen to be hurt. I hate when everybody gets hurt. It might sound weird because Queen is again a talented guy. Like I I think I think he was a lottery talent in this draft and a guy that they obviously love and want wanted to go all in for, but it goes back to my belief. I say all the time, most rookies are bad, especially one and done rookies with clear like um I would say shortcomings like Queen’s defense. I could see a scenario for sure in which Queen becomes awesome in the league, but he’s the kind of rookie that I think is going to be very very likely to be a negative player as a rookie. His defense is going to be really bad. Like like I would be shocked if it’s not in the NBA. And then playing a terrible defensive big in the league really impacts your ability to defend as a team. So simply make making sure that Queen plays less actually probably helps the Pelicans win games. Now New Orleans, part of the reason why it was such a weird trade for New Orleans is that they’re they gave up an unprotected pick in a year in which they have some like real uncertainty like they they should not be going all in because their floor is very low for example. Um I do believe Queen will end up playing. Now, whether he’s one of their best eight, nine, 10 players is up for debate. But he is a lottery pick. They’re going to play him, I think, in the NBA. But the more he plays, the more they probably lose, I think. Along, by the way, similarly to Jeremiah Fears, their even higher lottery pick, who again I kind of like as a prospect, but is almost certainly going to be bad as a rookie. More rookies mean more losses usually. McQueen not playing early might have the Pells play Mei and Looney more often early in the season. that could lead to some more wins, but not a huge deal. But it was a direct question. It kind of impacted the Hawks. And look, beyond like Porzingis or Alexander Walker or the big names in the Hawks, the number one story line for the next, I don’t know, several months is going to be the Pelicans for the Hawks, which is kind of crazy, but that under the pick, the chance to get someone like Boozer or Debonsa or Darren Peterson or whatever, like that could be the ceiling on that is huge. So, I get the question, but I I do think that actually Queen being hurt early doesn’t help the Hawks, quote unquote, in the way that it would if it was like an established player. Like, again, you don’t root for injuries at all. I never ever ever do that. But if it was Zion, like, yeah, Zion being hurt would definitely help the Hawks. Herb Jones being hurt would definitely help the Hawks. Trey Murphy being hurt would definitely definitely help the Hawks. Rookies being hurt doesn’t really do that. It might actually hurt the Hawks a little bit early in the season, but not a ton. So, I wouldn’t worry about it too much. And uh there you go. By the way, uh just as a little uh addition at the end of this, our friends at FanDuel Sportsbook currently have the Pelicans overunder at 29 and a half wins this season. So, they project the Pelicans to win 30-ish games. That is obviously good news for Atlanta. It does not mean that New Orleans can’t go over that. They certainly could if they stay healthy and Zion played all year long, etc. But currently only four or five teams are projected lower than the Pelicans. That’s great news for the Hawks. And it’s basically just the dregs. Like Utah, Washington, Brooklyn, those three teams like the only ones that are like clearly clearly clearly in lower realm than the Pelicans. Maybe Charlotte as well is in there too. But as of late July, it’s looking pretty good. And we’ll see. We following that story line all season long. And before we get out of here, it’s slow in August obviously, but France played a friendly today um pre- Euro basket. So, you could have actually seen Zachary Rishet play basketball today. He played 17 minutes. He wasn’t like incredible, but that happened. There’ll be more of that to come later on this month. Plus, we’ll have more player capsules with my son Glenn Willis. Um I actually have a couple of those recorded already with Glenn, so we’ll be dropping those either this week or next week. Um stay tuned. I actually plan to have another guest or two on to discuss the draft coming up as well. other stuff. Hawks projections, east projections, overunders, like it’ll be a busy summer. So stay tuned. Keep it locked right here and subscribe to Locked onHawks anywhere you find your podcasts, Apple, Spotify, YouTube, etc. Follow the show on XLT Twitter. It’s locked on hawks. I am there at BT Roland. I’m also on Blue Sky BT Roland. You can also follow my nonpodcast coverage of the Hawks at patreon.com/btoland. All right, everybody. Enjoy your Monday evening into Tuesday. I’ll have more coming up later on this week.

Brad Rowland (@BTRowland) hosts Episode 2033 of the Locked on Hawks podcast. Topics include the impact of De’Aaron Fox’s new contract on the ongoing Trae Young extension negotiations, comparisons between the two players, how Derik Queen’s injury might affect the Pelicans through the lens of the 2026 NBA Draft, and much more.

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FANDUEL DISCLAIMER: 21+ in select states. First online real money wager only. Bonus issued as nonwithdrawable free bets that expires in 14 days. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com/RG (CO, IA, MD, MI, NJ, PA, IL, VA, WV), 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (WY, KS) or visit ksgamblinghelp.com (KS), 1-877-770-STOP (LA), 1-877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN)