Separating Signal from Noise in Giannis Trade Murmurs and Identifying First Time All Stars

Separating Signal from Noise in Giannis Trade Murmurs and Identifying First Time All Stars

It’s rumor season and with that it’s very important to differentiate the signal and the noise. We’ll explain what we mean coming up next on Locked on Bucks. You are Locked on Bucks, your daily Milwaukee Bucks podcast, part of the Locked On podcast network, your team every day. Welcome into today’s Lockdown Bucks. I’m Justin Garcia. You can hear me throughout the course of the season on the Bucks Radio Network. We thank you for making this your first listen of the day each and every day. To those of you who are new, we’re the only daily Milwaukee Bucks podcast out there. Please like and subscribe. If you have not done so already, it helps us out immensely. Today’s episode brought to you by Monarch Money. Take control of your finances with Monarch Money. Use the code locked on NBA at monarchmoney.com for 50% off your first year. Okay, we mentioned the signal and the noise. So what do we mean by that? Well, you’ve heard us me largely reference statistics quite a bit. It’s in my background. And the signal and the noise represents meaningful information versus that you can discard. The signal is the meaningful information. The noise is what represents what’s irrelevant out there and distracting information. You’ll hear it a lot with sample sizes and data. and Camille and I have talked about that quite a bit as well. I point this out because we briefly touched on it on yesterday’s show and didn’t want to spend too much time on it and quite frankly it’s all that’s out there in terms of updates now as we’ve really gone into hibernation mode in terms of NBA uh updates. But the report I suppose from Sham Shirania that Giannis was still open to exploring other paths. Um I I don’t know exactly how he worded it. I frankly don’t pay too much attention to that because I’ve seen I think we’ve all seen time and time again if there is one guy that keeps things incredibly close to the vest and does not lean on those types of sources to pump information out there. It is Giannis, right? Like Giannis isn’t the guy that’s running to Shams and even the tweet of, “Hey, what happened to W? It’s just anybody else miss him.” the Bucks as an organization too button those things up and Giannis is no different. I don’t think Sham Shirania is lying or making this up but it does call into question and we won’t know this answer where the information is coming from. I do believe Sham Shirani is being told by someone, hey Giannis, he’s still thinking about it. He’s still mulling over his options and looking at his future here. Is that the best spot to stay in Milwaukee? But where is that coming from is the important part. Uh is it a source with a team that has had their eyes on Giannis for the past few years or an agent that has that type of connection of another player that would want to link up with Giannis? The chances are yes, that is in fact where it’s coming from, but I I don’t think it’s completely fabricated. I I suppose we can’t say one way or another whether or not it’s factual. That’s the danger of this type of reporting is there’s no way to disprove it. The only way we can prove it is if Giannis asks for a trade and asks to leave. Um, you’re rarely going to see guys push back and say this is just simply not true. We’ve seen it from time to time, but mostly ignore it and just pay no mind to it. That’s really the approach we’ve seen from Giannis other than the does anybody else miss Wooge tweet. Now, there was updates as well of Giannis on uh I can’t even we’ve had so many Giannis stories throughout the course of the year, but Giannis yesterday, whether it was a live stream or where it was, talking about signing autographs and when he started doing that and and had to cut short the way that he signed those autographs and and how he signed his name because putting in the grind basically, the long and short of it. And somebody yelled out, you know, I’m continuing my career and looking for a 15 to 20 year career. Uh, and somebody yelled out, “All in Milwaukee.” And he did say, “All in Milwaukee, baby.” With a wink and a nod. We saw the same thing to when he was on with I show Speed to, “Yeah, probably stand in Milwaukee.” Um, that’s the gist. That’s all what we’re going to get from Giannis essentially. So, I get it. It it quite frankly makes you upset to see more and more of this reporting. And as we’ve said, it’s not going away anytime soon, right? Until Giannis signs a new extension. This is going to be an annual event. Like if if you loved the Brett Favre retirement watch, well, how do you feel about the new sequel here? And Aaron Rogers, too, to that extent because that’s where we’re headed here. That every single summer it’s going to be what are the Bucks? What is Giannis? Not what are the Bucks going to do? What is Giannis gonna choose to do and is he going to choose to leave? So I mentioned the signal and the noise. I I think you would have to classify this as noise, right? Because again, there’s no way we can prove this. The only thing you can prove is if it was true if Giannis asked for a trade. Otherwise, you can say, “Well, that’s simply not true. Show me the guy that said that or show me this.” And and we’re not going to get that. So there’s no way to disprove it. The signal though is the important part to key in through all of this. And what I mean by that is there are some data points that would suggest well it’s not going to happen at least not this late into the game. Number one, let’s start there. It is August 5th and this reporting came out on August 4th. You don’t see moves like this. I know the Kyrie Irving trade happened and I’m I’m scrambling to uh pull up when that did in fact go through. I know that was late in the u in the off season. Um but those are rarities in August of 2017. Kyrie Irving traded um to the Celtics from the Cavaliers. So it does happen. It’s just not common this late in the the game of free agency because in the case of Giannis especially when you’re talking about a 55 basically millionoll contract teams have already settled their books and look it’s not to say that if you get the chance to get Giannis you’re going to say hey sorry we already did these things but it makes it much more difficult. It’s easier to do at the start of the off seasonason where you know, okay, we did this and now we have x amount of dollars left and we’d like to retain these guys. It’s going to be easier to convince guys to join us on team friendly deals. Kind of how the Bucks have lived for the past couple of years of just loading up on veteran minimum contracts or getting guys to take lesser money. You’ll do that early in the offseason when you make one of those moves so you can round out the rest of your roster. This makes that a little more challenging. um cobbling together salaries and even with some teams that may have been in play, if if you used it and it’s not a great example in this off season, but if you use some of that cap space to sign a guy, well, that guy can’t be included in the trade. You got to wait 6 months. So, is there still suitors out there? Absolutely, there are still suitors that would be out there for Giannis. Is there a market for him? Sure. Are there teams that could cobble some of that together? Yeah. I mean, could you do a sign and trade with Cam Thomas since everybody’s linked him to the Bucks? Absolutely. But you look at some of those teams, it doesn’t make quite as much sense. Um, the Houston Rockets are another team that’s come up routinely of, well, they still are keeping their ink wet for Giannis and they can still make some moves to acquire Giannis even with that KD trade. I’ve said from the onset, easier said than done. You know, we we just had this conversation of the old model. it doesn’t work anymore. And and the Bucks were in that model where you had 108 $110 million at the start of the off season earmarked for Giannis and Damen Lillard. Like that we have seen now for the last two plus years. That is not the way to build your rosters anymore to build that continuity. It’s important to kind of go backwards and have depth now. And more importantly, not only depth, but no weak spots. We talk about it with individual players. It’s out there with individual teams as well. And you look at some of these teams. Let’s Houston Rockets for example. Let’s say Giannis is interested in uh and again we have no information to say this is the case, but let’s say he’s reviewed it and said, “Okay, I’d like to go to Houston.” They can’t trade you Fred Vanble Vleet because he just signed a new contract. They have Alpin Shenon. You just signed Miles Turner. Where’s the need for Alpin? I get he’s what, five, six years younger, but you’re not playing those two bigs together. Jabari Smith cannot be traded. He just signed that extension. So, uh, Dorian Finny Smith just signed as a free agent. He can’t be a part of it. So, you’d really be looking at, okay, Aean Thompson and we’re going to need some salary filler that we feel we can flip and turn into something else, but it’s not a clean fit and that makes it complicated on the Bucks end as well. So, I don’t think that’s a great fit. The Spurs are another team that’s constantly been kicked around. I think that’s mostly wish casting of people that want to see Giannis and Victor Wimbeyama play together. Well, dear Fox just signed a massive extension. That’s off the table. Not that the Bucks would be outrightly interested in Dear Fox anyway, but that’s off the table. Other guys that they added during the offseason, Kelly Alen, right? That’s the salary filler you would be looking at. He just signed. He’s ineligible to be traded. So you’d be looking at Kelvin Johnson, uh maybe Harrison Barnes, Dylan Harper probably in that. But we’re we’re getting into the path where again you’re cobbling together these and you need some assets. I just keep going back to the Houston thing and if you can really just offer Elp and Shenon, you got Miles Turner and that doesn’t make sense for the Bucks. The Miles Turner component is important as well. We’ll get into that conversation and take a look at something on the brighter side. Some of the updates we’re seeing from AJ Green coming up next on Lock on Bucks. It’s 5Hour Energy season. It’s time to fuel up and turn it up with 5Hour Energy. Transfusion brings the bold grape, ginger, and lime flavor of your favorite golf drink minus the alcohol into a quick energizing shot. Whether you’re sinking birdies or just making memories with friends, this one is a hole in one for your energy game. 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So, I think the biggest piece of all this is Miles Turner. Um, we know and we’ve seen some reporting and we’ve heard from Miles Turner himself that he and Giannis have been conversing leading up to Miles Turner’s decision to sign with the Bucks and since then as well and mentioned there were there were further communications, but Giannis was out of the country in Greece and they hadn’t been able to get together yet. So, there is an open line of communication. Uh, I don’t know how strongly the quote unquote recruiting was pitched by Giannis, but we know there was some level of it. I mean, I I don’t doubt that Giannis is again examining all of his options. But I think at that point, you’re sold on Look, here’s our plan. I know you had a relationship with Dame. I know that’s a bummer. I get that. This is the way that we have to pivot. This is how we’re going to get our team to bridge that gap and get to this next quote unquote era of Bucks basketball to play this style that we’ve seen we have to play to be successful and we know the type of big that we need to have next to you. It was Brook Lopez and Brook Lopez has aged out of that type of player. Miles Turner has not. So, he is a seam a seamless fit and we’re going to keep all these young guys. It’s not a huge sample size of numbers. Camille and I have talked about that. John Horse talked about it, too. But we believe in those numbers nonetheless. And we think this is our best chance of succeeding and just gradually building something that if we’re not in the conversation among best teams in the Eastern Conference right now, we think we have a chance to get there by the end of the year. I I don’t know how much communication, if any, Giannis has with Miles Turner. if you’re still at the point of I don’t know about this. I I don’t think this is going to make us marketkedly better or at least good enough to get to that level that I think it’s time for me to move on. Like if that’s the case, we know Giannis is a direct guy. I think that’s the conversation that’s had then and there because he was keyed in. I think we’ve at least assessed that much of, hey, here’s what we’re doing. This is our plan. And quite frankly, you have to key in Giannis to those things at this point. He was keyed in. And if that’s the case, that’s the point that you walk away and you say, “Guys, do we really think this makes us to where I want us to be and where I think we need to be to commit here? I just don’t see it. I would like to explore other options.” the fact that that didn’t happen and that we’ve had those reports, the communication between the two that it’s this late into the summer in the off season as well where he said you can point to the Kyrie Irving trade. Uh that was what eight years ago. These things don’t happen this late into the season. I I think what this does tell us is there is the perception that blood is in the water out there outside of Milwauke let’s keep an eye on this. Camille and I talked about expectations for this team. We just stacked the Bucks up against the Celtics and the 76ers, right? There are teams, there are people, there are outside sources that are looking at this team and saying this isn’t going to work. They’re a playing team at best. They’re going to be a disaster. Um, yeah, it’s it’s time for Giannis to ask for a trade. So, let’s start kind of nudging towards that and greasing the wheels for it. I do think it’s imperative for the Bucks to get off to not like a, you know, 30 and 13 start like we saw two years ago. Um, but certainly not a 2 and 8 start, right? Not not those levels. It’s imperative for the Bucks to get off to a good start. Doesn’t have to be elite. Doesn’t have to be great. Can’t be terrible because this conversation is not going to go away. And it’s going to remain persistent leading up to the trade deadline, especially if the Bucks are, you know, a 500ish team or only slightly better than that. We know it’s not going to go away next off season. And we know it’s not going to go away from basically now until February 8th, 9th, whenever it is the trade deadline is. I think that’s the biggest thing to take from this is I know it’s annoying. Get used to it because this conversation is not exiting anytime soon. But I I just think there’s enough of a signal out there to say, look, I know you can’t prove this. I’m not saying you made this up, but I don’t think there’s much legs to this right now at this point in the offseason. All right, let’s pivot to something a little less draining. AJ Green, what we saw from him and could he be a firsttime all-star? Who has the best chance of achieving that on this Bucks roster where we said there’s going to be some opportunities and there’s quite a few names that could get there. We’ll get into that conversation coming up after this. Time to talk to you today about our show sponsor, Monarch Money. If you’ve ever wished managing your money felt easier, with Monarch Money, it can. Whether you’re growing your savings account or planning a big purchase, Monarch Money puts you in the driver’s seat. It’s like having your own personal CFO, giving you full visibility and control over your finances. Monarch Money is more than a budgeting app. It is a complete financial command center. You can track all of your accounts, investments, and spending in one place. So, in addition to managing your money, you’re also building wealth. Maybe that’s wealth you’re building with a partner. Monarch Money makes it easier than ever to share your finances with someone and track those to allow both of you to stay on the same page. And it’s big, too, for financial goals. If you have one that you’ve set out want to get serious about, maybe it’s decreasing your spending, tracking where all your spending is going, or planning for a big purchase, Monarch Money can keep you on track to achieve those goals. Take control of your finances with Monarch Money. Use code locked on NBA at monarchmoney.com for 50% off your first year. That’s monarchoney.com code locked on NBA for half off your first year. Okay, AJ Green dunked in a game that was certainly noteworthy or in a a pickup scrimmage. Uh, but we saw AJ Green show off some hops and uh dunk. We saw a couple of times last year where AJ Green would um take that pullup two just inside the three-point line. You know, I think the comparisons are going to be out there for obvious reasons of AJ Green to Duncan Robinson, who we saw get paid by the Pistons this off seasonason. By the way, we’ve still not seen anything in terms of an extension or heard any more chatter other than what John Horse shared with Eric Name that look, it’s something we want to get done. We reached out to AJ’s agent from day one of the offseason and stressed that uh we want him here. we think he wants to be here, but we’ve yet to see the pen come to paper on that or hear anything about traction. Um, so I’m just going to keep monitoring that is is all I will say. But, you know, I I think there is certainly a vast market for AJ Green because of his lethal skill set to shooting the ball. But it does beg the question of, okay, how many twos would I like to see him take? And we joke, too, that AJ Green dunked. Are we going to see more dunks in a game from AJ? and the ribbon that we had seen on this team the last few years with that Chris Middleton and Damen Lillard through the years with Chris Middleton and and dunks with Drew Holiday kind of uh negging him there too, but is it important for AJ Green to have more than just three-point shooting? I I don’t know. You know, we know how lethal that is and how much that can stretch the floor. And we even last year started to see AJ Green pull up from longer range for threes. That’s going to be gone with Damen Lillard. It’s not to say every team needs somebody that can really stretch the floor to those four-point shots, but it’s helpful to create even more room if you show you can consistently knock those down. Now, that’s the difference. Damen Lillard show that over the back half of his career. He is willing to pull up from there and he can consistently knock those down. It’s not going to be like a fivegame stretch where we see AJ Green pulling up from that spot, knocking them down, and all of a sudden guys are going to have to start defending him out there further. It’s going to take a season’s worth of data or more to get to that point. Um, but I I think I said on this show and a few others last year that I just kind of cringed isn’t the right word, but it’s just kind of all right. anytime that AJ would take anything other than a three. Um, I’m curious to see what the evolution of this offense is because if it’s in its old ways and the way that we saw the the last eight games, seven with Yiannis throughout the course of the season and the successful moments they had in that first round series against the Indiana Pacers, if it is that exact offense, then I think no, you don’t want to see AJ Green taking anything other than threes and that the ball falls right into his hands uncontested underneath the rim, then fine. fine, take those, but otherwise threes. But if we’re going to see any types of tweaks to the offense and more reliance on let’s move more uh let’s get some offball movement, which I do think is very very critical to a full season of that eightgame sample size from a year ago. You need some offball movement. You need some other ways to create some looks, especially with initiators that are gone now with the absence of Damen Lillard. Maybe uh Kevin Porter Jr. really thrives in that role. Maybe somebody like Ryan Rollins takes off or other guys Gary Trent Jr. becomes that, right? We’ll see. But I think movement is going to be very very critical to this team because you can’t fall in the trap of let’s just get to the corners and let’s get to our other spots and let’s just hang out and wait and watch Giannis work and wait to catch that shot. So, if that’s the case, then more than threes are going to be critical for AJ cutting to the basket more. Um, doing other things. I would love to see what AJ Green can do as a ball handler in some of those in the inverse screen. We obviously saw a couple of times with Giannis, but let’s beef that up to the levels we saw Giannis running with Pat Coneton through the years. So AJ Green to me is one of the more interesting guys this upcoming season to just look at what’s the offensive evolution that we see from an AJ Green and it kind of ties into something that we will certainly touch on when Camille’s back on the program and uh with Frank as well as we we I think we’re going to have a mailbag episode coming tomorrow. Frank had some travel but not to get diverted there. Save some of these questions for him. But one thing to just kind of table set for it is uh the conversation of first-time allstars. Is there one on this team? Because we’ve talked about, hey, it’s Giannis and then but who’s the next guy that steps up? It’s not necessarily the who’s the number two option or who’s the second leading scoreer? Who do you go to down the down the stretch of a tight game? Is there someone on this team that can put up enough of the counting stats? because that’s what you need to put up enough of those to enter the all-star conversation. I would assume most people are going to say no. But you got a lot of options. Miles Turner’s never been an all-star. Bobby Poris has never been an all-star. Gary Trent Jr.’s never been an all-star. Kevin Porter Jr. never been an all-star. AJ Green to a lesser extent, never been an all-star. So, you got some options that are out there. Who’s the most likely to break through? This is one of the questions that came in to us a little bit late when we were calling for your mailbags. And by the way, it’s going to be multiple mailbag episodes. We got a ton of responses. So, feel free to continue sending those in. You can tweet them, send them on blue sky as well to myself, Camille, and Frank or to the email address that we put out there on the YouTube page, but it’s mailbag.logmail.com. But that was one of the more interesting ones that struck a couple of us of huh this one is different from who’s the number two scorer um who’s the number two guy number two option on the team who has the chance if anyone to break through and become a firsttime all-star in this group. I don’t know that there is anyone that’s realistic uh because of the counting stats component. I mean, the helpful part is you’re in the Eastern Conference, right? We assume Giannis is going to be an all-star. I I would assume the guy that probably has the best chance at becoming a firsttime all-star. And actually, I should have double checked this. I am 95% sure that he has never been an all-star. Um, but to me, the guy that has the best chance is not the guy that we talked about as the second leading scoreer. And you know, other than the initial impact, he’s largely been at times an afterthought in everything we’ve discussed in this off season. And that’s Miles Turner because look, we know how that spot fits next to Giannis. And we’ve seen Brook Lopez put up good seasons. There were years where you could say maybe there’s one in particular. Maybe Brook Lopez should be considered for an all-star here. Um Miles Turner at most has has averaged 18 points in a season. I there’s a decent chance he’s there this year. Now, is 18 enough to be an all-star? Probably not. It It’s going to have to get into that 20s range. And especially if you’re not rebounding, which has been a constant knock on Miles Turner. He averaged seven and a half rebounds per game the season that he averaged 18 points. Uh on the surface, those are not enough really to be an all-star. But if the block shots are in that like three range, which he has done once in his career, the block shots are in that three range, if the scoring is 18 to 20, and if the Bucks are one of these surprises right in the area that Camille and I and a handful of others have said, I believe this is where this team is going to be. To me, Miles Turner is probably the most likely for a firsttime all-star. I mean, I know you can reliably count on the counting stats from Bobby Poris. You just you seldom see sixth man become allstars. So, I think that’s who it is. You know, I know we I advocated for I think Kevin Porter Jr. is going to have a huge breakthrough season having the ball in his hands more. You know, the talent that’s there, they’re going to lean on him quite a bit. I do think there’s going to be some growing pains and some ups and downs. I think Miles Turner is going to be much more consistent and to me that would be the guy most likely. But leave your thoughts there. We’ll we’ll get that conversation going with the other two as well in one of our upcoming mailbag shows. But leave your thoughts. If there is a player that makes the All-Star game for the first time on this current Bucks roster, who is it more likely to be? Um, we do have a mailbag coming up for tomorrow. Again, we got a ton of questions. So, there’s going to be multiple mailbags running throughout the summer. We’re still not sure if that’s just going to be Camille and I or me, Camille, and Frank. But be on the lookout for that one on tomorrow’s feed. And again, we acknowledge it. The Shams Report is out there. You don’t have to pay too much attention to it. We can ignore these types of things. You don’t have to let it ruin your day and uh get too worked up. Uh thanks for making this your first listen of the day each and every day. For your second listen, we do encourage you to check out the locked on NBA podcast where there is no off season. We keep you up to date. Contract negotiations. We just saw a couple more extensions. Jiren Fox and Luca rumors, one of which we touched on earlier on this show, and everything you need to be the most informed NBA fan. Find Locked on NBA on YouTube or wherever you listen to your podcasts, all part of the Lockdown Podcast Network. Your team every day. And you can find Camille Weekly on the Locked On NBA show. That’ll do it for today’s show. Thanks everybody for tuning in. We’ll talk once again tomorrow on Locked on Bucks.

Giannis Antetokounmpo trade rumors shake Milwaukee Bucks fans. Is the Greek Freak’s future with the team in jeopardy?

Justin Garcia analyzes recent reports suggesting Giannis might explore options beyond Milwaukee. He examines potential trade scenarios involving the Houston Rockets and San Antonio Spurs, while discussing the challenges of salary matching this late in the offseason. The conversation shifts to Myles Turner’s fit alongside Giannis, AJ Green’s development, and which Bucks players could become first-time All-Stars.

Tune in for an in-depth breakdown of the Bucks’ offseason moves and their impact on Giannis’ future with the team.

0:00 Intro: Differentiating signal from noise
5:04 Giannis rumors and off-season reporting challenges
17:19 AJ Green’s development and offensive role
23:56 Potential first-time All-Stars on Bucks roster
28:31 Outro: Upcoming mailbag episode preview

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