Career Year Theory EXPLAINED | Rick Kamla & Dr. A Evaluate NBA Breakouts!

Career Year Theory EXPLAINED | Rick Kamla & Dr. A Evaluate NBA Breakouts!

Ah, your boys are in a great mood. Just had a spirited production meeting and now we’re on the air. It is the Fantasy MBA today. Rick Campla, Hall of Famer Steve Alexander, best in the biz producer Andre Leamouch. This fine show is presented by FanDuel and Doc. Uh we’ve got a fun episode for the people here, man. We are going to uh talk briefly about some small little news items, Luca and Muel. Uh, and then we’re going to go into Andre Leamoosh crunched the numbers on our all-time fantasy draft with Wilt and Magic and Bird and Jordan and all these guys, right? We did this last week. He crunched the numbers over the weekend to see who would actually win. Uh, and what I will just tease you and say is the numbers are super close. Okay. Uh, and so we’ll tell you who got the dub um based on Andre’s numbers later in the show. And we’ve got a huge thing planned for you, Careeryear Theory. Uh we’re going to get into my thought on it and we’re going to look ahead to this year and tell you guys that we think we’re going to have career years in 2526. Huge show. Glad you guys are along for the ride. Doc, uh two news items since we’ve been off the air. There have been some small signings, two ways and stuff like that. I don’t care. Uh Ricky Council went to the Nets. I don’t care. Um Luca Donuch got three years and $165 million. Big news press conference blah blah blah. And you had MueL Bridges getting four years and 150 million from the New York Knicks which was very very predictable. Uh they keep the mostly Nova Nick thing together. Any commentary on that money? No, I don’t think any any of it was surprising. Uh obviously the Lakers are locked in on Luca being the the future of that franchise and this is uh probably LeBron’s swan song with them and maybe his career. Who knows? Um, I mean, I I just want Luca to come out and do what he’s supposed to do. Like like you know how I always say, man, it’s now or never with this guy. Like I’ve I’ve been patient long enough. He’s either going to do it this year or I’m out. I mean, that’s sort of where we are with Luca, right? I mean, you can’t be uh a a a Vegas favorite to win MVP every year and never even come close. Like, you either got to put up or shut up. Um the men’s health cover that we talked about last week and all the hype about how good he looks. I I in a way it’s awesome because it it gives us all hope that we’re finally going to get a full season of full Luca, but it also just adds to the pressure of look dude you got to produce. You got to come up big this year and so far he hasn’t. So I I think this is a pivotal year in the career of Luca. Yes, it is, dude. And this is right now the summer of Luca, the men’s health thing, all the chatter. He just got paid. Uh there there’s been other stuff, but all all the like sightings of him. Oo, look at Luca. He looks like he’s in great shape. We haven’t talked about anybody more than Luca this off season. He’s been the most newsy NBA player by far. And that’s going to lead into the career year of Luca, I believe. And we’ll get to that a little bit later. Uh Muel Bridg is good for him. you know, it’s uh it’s good money for him. It seems like a decent contract for the Knicks long term. Four and 150. It’s not max money or anything like that. It’s big money. Um you know, it’s it’s what what is that 35 million a year or something like that. It’s really good money. Um I’m just not a huge fan of his uh as a fantasy player. All right, so a couple newsy things and now we got to move into Doc Andre’s number crunching on our draft. Last week we did the all-time fantasy draft. um with you know all the Where the hell is my list? Uh oh. Doc, doc doc. Um I should have this list. I don’t have this list right now. Anyway, uh we drafted our alltime teams. M’s the one with all the flashy names on it. The shiny the shiny diamonds like Michael Jordan and Akimuan and I am Larry Bird and Kobe Bryant. Yeah, I uh a previous uh version of me on this show would be cussing right now, but I I I’m not I’m over that. Oh, here it is. Um I got too many of these sheets of paper. You got all these pads, Doc. I got all these little half sheets of paper that I used. I have a million, guys. Here are the teams. Here are the teams. Uh I had uh uh Oh, here we go. Uh, point guard Magic, shooting guard, Curry, guard, Westbrook, small forward, LeBron. Power forward, KG. Uh, forward Elgen Baylor, don’t sleep. Uh, center, Wilt, center, Wimby. Come on. Uh, uh, Flex Kareem, right? I Wilton Wy. Oh my god. We have Wilt, Wimi, and Kareem, dude. And Kareem. And then David Robinson. Okay, he’s my next flex. And then my bench is West, Oscar, Shaq, and Barry as in Rick Barry. Uh Dr. I don’t if you have your team and you can rattle it off. Go ahead for the people. Oh, hey. I can do it. I got it right here. Just let me know. Luca, point guard Luca, then Michael Jordan, then Kobe Bryant, then Larry Bird, then Kevin Durant, then Tim Duncan, Keem at center, Nola Joic at center. You know, Rick, as as good as your team sounded, I mean, this one sounds just as good. Uh, utility Chris Paul, utility Dirk Nitzky, Bench Trace McGrady, Allan Iverson, Isaiah Thomas, and the much male Bridges like Shawn Marian, the main at the end of it. All right, so those are the teams that we drafted, folks. Now again, Andre Lemoosh, best in the biz, uh the best numbers, the best prep, the best organization. I could go on and on and on. Uh uh tidbits as we do the show. The guy’s the best producer I’ve had. Okay. Uh and there’s no recency bias with that. I’ve had producers going back to the uh mid 1990s. It includes all of them. Um All right. So, the voting doc said you had the best team and you do have the shiny, fancier, uh bigger name team. Okay. I’m taking West and Oscar and all these dusty old dudes and you’re taking Jordan, Kobe, Bird, right? Good for you. So, you won the p the public vote 51.7% to 48.3%. That’s pretty close, dude. Pretty close. It’s very close. I mean, it’s that’s basically a draw. Like, you got to you know, all those political polls are always within two or three%. Last two political elections in our country have been very very close. Right. I know that the Trump Biden one was uh I can’t I don’t I don’t you know I don’t really follow politics. But was Trump’s last victory close or was that like an asskicking? I I honestly don’t even know. Do you remember? It was called a landslide. But I mean they’re always they’re always kind of close. Who who knows man? Who so much of that stuff is All right. Anyway, who car we we I have a lot more I have a lot more faith in uh Andre’s numbers than I do uh what I see on TV about politics, bro. Amen. Amen to that. And we’ll move on. Okay. So, here’s what the numbers say. Uh based on Andre’s calculation of all time stats of these guys, uh field goal percentage, Rick wins 49.4% to 47.9%. Like I say, if you and I played like you’d win field goal, I’d win field goal. That that that’s essentially a coin flip. Uh three balls, you got me pretty significantly. 15 to 10. It says here. Uh probably because my old timey guys weren’t popping threes. I don’t know. But but you get the win there. Free throw percentage. Doc wins 80.1 to 74.1. Uh pretty clear advantage for you. Obviously, I’ve got Wilt uh and Shaq. I’ve got I’ve got two terrible uh free throw shooters on my team. All right, so Doc’s ahead 2 to1 rebounds. Uh, I got this by a mile. 136 to 103. Uh, so it’s 2-2 assists. And this is where it really pivots and hinges. Uh, Andre says, “Close call, but Rick seems to have the upper hand. 78.9 to 75.” Again, any week that can flip, it’s between 3.9 uh, per game. It depends on how many It depends on how many games Isaiah Thomas has that week. Good point. It’s a good point. Uh so it says here 3 to2 Cam. Uh and then steals go to you doc 20.9 to 17.6. Uh and it says Andre says even accounting for the non-steel data from Baylor and Wilt. The 3.3 margin uh keeps this as Doc’s category. Limited Jerry data has him at 2.6 and Oscar at 1.1. Um, so again, like when I took old timey guys, I was like, “This may hurt me.” Uh, and in fact, it has. Uh, but it is what it is. They were the right picks. U, but you get steals. So, we’re at 33. Uh, blocks goes to me 16-13 basically. And, uh, and then I get points. Uh, pretty heavy advantage 337 to 316. But any given week, you know, number of games a guy misses a game, boom. And that’s that’s game on. So, uh, so what Andre says here, summary, AAT format, Doc wins, pardon me, Cam wins four categories. Doc wins three categories. Assists slight lean to me. Turnover slight advantage to me as well, but incomplete data on that. So, Doc, chew on some of that number crunching, that brilliant number crunching by Andre Leouch. Yeah, it’s uh it’s fun. And you know, you know how every single year you draft your teams and then you get a grade from Yahoo or a grade from whoever like how often is that end end up being who actually wins the league? Like I would say fairly rarely are those all that accurate. Like so I I I I do appreciate the number crunching and and this is different because the a lot of this is historical, right? We’re like looking backwards um at a lot of this. Uh so so it I’m just happy it looks like it’s competitive, you know, 43, 34, whatever. Um it would be super fun to be able to play this out if all these dudes are still playing basketball, bro. It it’s it’s just typical Cam and Doc, dude. Every week would be a slugfest down in the mud, talking trash, Doc hitting me with the crying strategy. I don’t know how I can I don’t know how I can hope to compete with you when you have Wimby and Wil. I have freaking love it, man. I freaking love it. I’m telling you right now, if I drafted Iverson where I drafted Jerry West, I think these numbers are looking different, bro. I think these numbers are looking different cuz then I’m getting the 2.2 steals from AI, getting the 27 points and getting the six dimes. Dude, I’ll tell you that that that’s what that’s actually what I wanted to say. I mean, you can’t overstate the importance of having Wilt Chamberlain on your team. You take Will off your team, everything flips. Like I Will is Will be banned from fantasy. I think he’s too He’s too good. Not from Cam Dynasty. He wouldn’t, dude. I mean, I got I’ve got Kobe and Jordan and Larry Bird and Akimon and I I can’t even compete because you have Wilt. I mean, I Yes, you can compete. The numbers prove that you would compete with me every single week with this team. I have a slight advantage. Um, you know what, Doc? You know what I should do? I should uh as the commissioner of the Cam Dynasty, I should create some legislation to ban Wimi. He’s on Andre’s team. Okay. So, Andre has a weapon of mass destruction. I’m just kidding, Andre. I would never do that. I’m just messing with y’all. Um, the league is the league. All the players, they’re there. He gave up four first round picks in LaMelo ball to get him. I still don’t think that’s enough for Wimby, but it is a it is a lot. I will give him that. Um the fact that we only go one year out with draft picks, right? So the fact that he was able to orchestrate four first round picks um when you only have two to deal with uh it was very impressive and that that’s what got the deal done. Um so let’s see here. Uh he says final breakdown. Rick’s team build holds the overall advantage. This would be a competitive matchup. Rick should dominate field goal percentage, rebounds, blocks. Doc should take threes, free throws, and steals. Points are likely Rick’s, but we know fantasy can swing. And he says that this would be a swing category. Uh and so it it’d be very very very close. Now, Doc, let’s get into the meat of our episode here, which is about uh the careeryear theory. Uh this is something that I’ve developed over the years. uh Doc by being disappointed. Okay. And I I’ll take you back to the to the origination of this. It it’s from 2,000yard NFL running backs. Okay. Uh Adrien Peterson, Jamal Lewis, Chris Johnson, uh uh Saquon Barkley last year. Okay. By the way, I’m baiting Saquon. I don’t want him on a single one of my fantasy football teams this year. Why? He was so amazing last year. Oh my god, there’s a Super Bowl champion. You’re so stupid. No, I’m not. The career year theory is undefeated. It’s undefeated, especially when it’s 2,000yard running backs in the NFL. Doc, I did a study on this and and the stat remains and it continues. Well, I guess we’ll find out with Seaquan, but I’m anticipating that this pattern is going to hold up. Every single 2,000yard NFL running back has either sh to earth the next year and and smashed to smitherines or the numbers went woo. Okay, it’s one or the other. Either they got hurt or something happened or they just went woo every single time. Okay, that’s where the career year theory comes from. I don’t know if you’ve you play fantasy football so I don’t know if you’ve spotted that um you know with these 2,000 yard backs and then that’s led to other guys Doc big touchdown guys. Do you remember the year that Jamal Williams with this I believe it was with Detroit le or the Saints I can’t remember like three years ago led the league in total touchdowns right he was the most obvious fade in the history of the world the next year Joe Mixon uh one of the years with Cincy had 18 or 20 touchdowns the most obvious fade going into the next year you remember two years ago Rahhee Mostard had like 20 touchdowns right what’ he do last year in Miami he was awful okay so it’s when These guys had these outofbody experience seasons and that that’s what you have to diagnose. Was this an out-of- body experience or is this in him to do it again? Okay. So, when I diagnosed that, no, no, no, this is an out-of- body experience. Bam. Career your theory. I’m done. I’m fading you and I’m telling the world to fade you as well. So, Doc, take it from there. I don’t Is Levy on Bell on that list? I I’d have to go back, but probably at some point because he had he had one massive year and then I think it just fell off, right? It was just gone. Um, and how many of those guys were on the cover of Madden, I wonder. Um, Oo, good point. A few of them at least because it reminds me of the whole Madden curse thing. It’s the same thing. Like these running backs like there’s been very few um running backs that just go out and do it over and over and over again. Like I feel like Marshall Faulk was pretty good for several years. Peterson, Adrien Peterson was very good for several years, but man, when the when the running back uh falls off the table, it’s like straight down. There’s no like slow decline. It’s just like turn off a light switch. Um, and if you if you’re on the wrong side of that, it it’s very painful because I mean there’s a lot of times you take a running back with your first or second pick that you think is going to go off or had a great year last year and it just it just doesn’t work out. So, um, yeah. And and I’m a Rick, I’m still old school when I draft my fantasy teams. Like I’ve tried to talk myself out of it and tell myself that, you know, the points in today’s game are all wide receivers and that’s where you really put your money. Um, but I still go running back, running back just because of uh position scarcity. I always draft running backs too early. That that’s No, you you’re I mean, so we’ll get back to basketball here in just a second. Many of you are drafting fantasy football teams and we’re goats in that realm, too. Uh, I can tell you my personal strategy, Doc, is to go back back, okay, and bookend them because the premium backs are at the top. Uh, once you get into it around three and four, now you’re into the time share backs. And so it they’re good ones, but they’re time share backs, right? So, here’s the thing, Doc. You You think about George Pickins and Jerry Judy and all of these stud wide receivers that you’re going to get in rounds four, five, six, seven, right? You don’t need to take Justin Jefferson and Jamar Chase. You don’t need to do that. You can. I’m not mad at you for doing it, but I’d rather have Derk Henry and Bean Robinson and then deal with the really, really good wide receivers as opposed to having elite wide receivers and having a bunch of time share running backs. All right, football conversation over. Let’s get back to the career year theory. Um, Andre asked a great question here. Does it apply to all players? It’s an outstanding question, Doc. And this gets back to diagnosing. Is it an out-of- body experience or not? Because let’s bring it back to basketball. Nicole Yokic’s year last year, Doc, was a career year. First triple double. Uh I he career-h high in assists. I think he had a careerhigh in uh steals. And I believe it was the best three ball year of his career. And he might have had a careerhigh in rebounding. Uh I don’t know. And it might have been a careerhigh in scoring. I don’t know. Maybe you can look that up while I’m while I’m jamming here. But Doc, I’m not gonna say, “Oh, that was a career year from Joic and then I’m fading him this year, right? He’s an all-time great.” So when Emtt Smith would rock 2,200 total yards and 18 touchdowns. I never said career year theory. He’s Emtt freaking Smith, right? He he just did that year after year after year after year. So, you’ve got to diagnose is it was it an out-of- body experience? Okay. Or is this an all-time great mofo where this is what he’s capable of? So, that that’s the decision-m process with it. And with Joic, I mean, I could he have a better season than he had last year? I mean, maybe. I I’ I’d say there’s an 85% chance that Jokic’s numbers this coming season are not going to be as good as they were last season, but that’s because last season’s numbers were stupid. He averaged a triple double and 30 point. Like they were they were absolutely ridiculous numbers. So, you know, the drop off there, like even if Joic, even if Joic has a bad season, he’s still going to be a top four fantasy player. Like that’s just where he is. Um, so it does not apply to everyone. Like I I whether Joic had a career year last year or not has no impact on my thoughts of where to draft him. All right, so let’s let’s look at Joic real quick. career year in points by a mile, 29.6. Uh, second most rebounds of his career at 12.7. Most assists at 10.2. Uh, most steals at 1.8. Um, not a careerhigh in blocks. Uh, by far a careerhigh in threes. You know what, Doc? All the stats that we rank and that we I I it escaped me that Jokic was two threes a game last year. I’ll admit that. He was at two threes a game last year. Oh my god. Maybe this was a career year. Uh shot 42% from downtown. Never even approached 40. He approached 40% a couple of times. Uh but never like that. Uh okay. So this is a obvious career year from Nicole Joic, but he is not going to be one of my career year theory players because he’s Nola freaking Jokic. Because Doc, when I brand you, I shouldn’t say brand. When I label you a careery year guy, okay, it means I’m fading you. It means I’m telling the world to fade you. So, I got to be careful with that. I I’m putting that on Jokic. Nope. Nope. Draft, folks. Joic could have won the last six MVPs, probably. I mean, it’s he was in the hunt for at least five of those. Um, and actually, you know, last year a lot of people thought he should have won. And every year people think he should have won. So Joic is not uh who was the running back for the Cowboys a couple years ago. Um dude, you think about DeMarco DeMarco Murray? No, the dude from Ohio State, I think. Uh oh, Ezekiel Elliott. That dude that dude burned a lot of people. That that’s not really a career year theory, but like Zeke was getting drafted so high and then he just, you know, wet the bed. Um, Joic not going to do that. So, you don’t have to worry about Joic. We just had a Zeke Elliot Nicola Joic analogy made by Hall of Famer Steve Alexander. That was cool. Wasn’t a very good Wasn’t a very good job by me. I I just like that Zeke Elliot and Jokic were used in the same in the same deal. I thought that was pretty cool. Uh he’s Hall of Famer Steve Alexander. I’m Rick Campbell. We’re the fantasy NBA today. We’re presented by FanDuel. Glad to have you guys and girls along for the ride. Hi. Okay, so now Doc, I want to move into um some examples for your your guys. So So hold on a second. I want to give you some examples of last year where it worked and where it worked and where it didn’t. And I I’ll I’ll make this I’ll make this uh uh pretty quick here. So, these are guys coming in coming out of 2324. Okay, coming out of 2324 that I thought were going to be good and I was wrong and maybe uh I I undiagnosed a career year. So, the guys that I hit on, Joel Embiid, Doc, and this was heading into this past year, remember the year before, 34.7 points, 11 boards, 5.6 assists, uh 1.7 blocks, 1.2 steals, 1.4 threes, and I won’t do the whole stat line with every guy, but like by far the best year of him’s career. Oh my god, those numbers, right? How many games did he play that year? I don’t know. I I didn’t I didn’t write that down. More than he normally does. Yeah, exactly. But I knew coming off of that year with all the injury stuff. Yeah. Yeah. Okay. Lowry Markin, uh, 23-24, he went 23 points, eight boards, uh, two assists, 3.2 threes. Um, knew to fade him and was right. Jaylen Brunson, remember the year before Cat Doc, 28.7 PPG, great numbers across the board. I knew he was coming. It wasn’t a full fade, but it was like, guys, Brunson ain’t going 29 a game, and he didn’t. uh Desmond Bane um with a healthy JJ. Yeah, I thought John Moran was going to play a lot more games last year than he did. Anyway, it all led to a fade of Desmond Bane and that was the right move. Uh the year before, 23-24 is at 24 points uh over four boards, five and a half assists and on and on. Doc Alex Caruso uh remember that I traded him coming off that year with Chicago. I did. I had him on my dynasty team. Um that year he went 104 and three with one one and one. We talked about that. And then Dante Devenenzo, I knew to fade him off the career year in New York. 15.5 PPG, three and a half threes a game. Um, and he didn’t even come close to that last year. So, I got it right with those six guys. Okay, here’s where I got it wrong. Um, and so Dear Fox, so in other words, I ranked him too high. He was coming off Doc. Here’s his line in 2324. 26.6 points per game. I looked at this last night. I’m like, “Oh my god, what a year.” 4.6 boards, 5.6 assists, two steals, 2.9 threes from De’aran Fox. Who doesn’t hit three balls like that? That was a misdiagnosed career year for me, okay? Because I was very high in him coming in. He didn’t even come close to it. I know he got traded and all of that, but I can’t take all this credit. I got to take some L’s here. Um, and so to me, I don’t know if Fox is ever going to do that again, Doc. That was a misdiagnosed career year. I thought uh Devin Bell, okay, coming off 23-24, 19.5 points, careerhigh, 4.1 assists, careerhigh um and then he kind of went like this this year and I got that wrong. And then Anthony Simons, doc, 23-24. Check out this year from Anthony Simons. 22.6 points, 5.5 assists, um 3.43 balls. Dude, it was careerhigh in every single category. All right. and that that was a mi an a uh a an undiagnosed career year and obviously Simon’s last year didn’t even come close to that. So, um the scoreboard reads six to three on on how I got that last year. Any thoughts on any of those cats? Uh no, I like I like this. Uh this is sort of your baby. You know, I’ve got my guys. I write about my guys. I I think about my guys all the time. And you’ve got um some other stuff going on. You’ve got um the career year theory. So, this is this is sort of like your show. I feel like I’m just a passenger on uh Rick Camela Airways right now. Also, you said Ricky, you mentioned a player, Ricky. Uh, who did you mention earlier when we were talking about uh news? You said news. You didn’t Ricky Counsel. Ricky Council. You mentioned Ricky Counsel. When you said Ricky, my I immediately was like, “Oh man, Ricky props is here.” Like I thought we were going to do some Ricky props. I haven’t heard the the name Ricky since we were doing Ricky props last year. Uh and I don’t know how I just faded into that conversation, but I wanted to I I I miss Ricky props. I’m excited to get back on FanDuel and make some prop bets when the NBA season starts. And I can’t wait to get uh the intel from Ricky Props who’s going to be back here in about a month and a half. Dude, I mean, where where are we here? August 4th. So, it’s it’s kind of exciting that we flip to August because September, there’s still no hoops. But at the end of September, we get media day and the opening up of training camp. All right. So, we’re we’re a month out from the month that ceremoniously begins the season. We’re getting there, guys. We’re building the bridge to the 2526 season. All right. So, these are the guys that I’m telling you to fade this year. Uh, and then we’re going to get into my list of career year guys this year. Doc’s list of career guys this year. We’re going to blend that up and and have fun with it. Um, I’m going to give you uh Doc I I tell you what, let’s do this. Where are we at with time? We got We got We’re good on time. I’m going to give you the list here, Doc. You tell me where you disagree. Let’s do it this way. Okay. I got 10 guys here. I got 10 guys who I believe last year had a career year and they’re not going to do it um probably ever again. Uh but definitely not this season. Um you know, some of the younger guys I’m not going to like rule out another year like that, but but maybe I am. All right, it’s Carl Anthony Towns. It’s Dyson Daniels, Josh Hart, Fron Vagner, Norman Pal, that’s five. Towns, Daniels, Hart, France Vagner, Norman Pal. Those are five, Jaylen Suggs. I know the games played suck, but the overall numbers were easily a careerhigh. Uh PJ Washington, Quinton Grimes, Ty Jerome, and Yakob Purle, who was an addition last night when I finished my rankings, Doc. Um, and I I took a closer look at Purle. I was like, he just had a career year. I mean, Purle’s off everybody’s radar, right? I took a deep dive in him. I’m like, you are guilty of having a career year. So, uh, Towns, Dyson Daniels, Hart, France, Vagner, Norman Pal, Jaylen Suggs, PJ Washington, Quinton Grimes, Ty Derome, Yaka Purle. That is my run for your life and hide list. Uh, out of that list, Doc, I’m going to give you the guy like wouldn’t draft Purle, wouldn’t draft Jerome, wouldn’t draft Grimes, wouldn’t draft PJ pretty much. I don’t want to draft Suggs, although I love him. Uh, not drafting Norman Pal. Uh, this year I’m not drafting France, but he’s a young stud. I’m leaving the future open. Definitely not drafting Josh Hart this year. Full fade. Uh, like I would take France this year, doc. I still would, right? It’d have to be at my terms, though, and he’ll probably go ahead of those terms. But I would take France this year. He’s not a full full fade um like these other guys. Dyson Daniels also is a guy, Doc. It’s not a full fade. It’s not a full fade. Uh I would still take Dyson Daniels, but I think he’ll be overdrafted and I won’t even have to worry about it. And then same thing with Towns. Not a full fade. I’m not saying I would never take Carl. I would uh but I think he’s going to be overdrafted. I’m going to be taking other guys in the first round when you all are taking towns. So that’s the list, Doc. Uh take me anywhere you want to go on that. Uh, first of all, I’m actually kind of shocked and maybe I I’m kind of surprised that Avita Zubach is not on this list. Okay, that dude had a monster quiet year where he just dominated. Like if you had Zubach on your fantasy team, he was he was a basically put up all-star numbers and you drafted him in like what sixth round. So, I’m kind of surprised Zubach is not on that list. I think he’s probably on mine. Um, if I was going to make a list like this, uh, I I overall the list that you just rattled off looks very good to me. If you would have uh if you would have hung out with me at Johnny Bees and played some golden tea with me and drank some Tropical with me and said, “Hey, dude. Did you know PJ Washington had a career year last year?” I would be like, “No, he didn’t. No, he didn’t.” I I I can’t believe PJ Washington is on this list. I can’t believe he had a career year. Um so that to me is the funniest thing about the list. Um the Norman pal thing like I’ve it’s fun when you predict someone is going to have a career year and they do it and then that’s the time to run away. I’m running away as fast as I can from Norman Pal. Uh so I I totally agree with this list and you’re right about Dyson Daniels. Um I’m still bullish on Dyson Daniels. I’ll be one of those people probably drafting him too high. you’re not going to have to worry about um probably anybody on this list because these guys are all well once you get out past Norman Pal it drops off and maybe these guys will be available when it’s your turn to pick but I think Cat Dyson Josh Hart Fron and Norman Pal maybe not Pal but those guys are going to be gone before you’re thinking about taking them Rick so you’re not really going to have to worry about uh whether to draft these guys or not. I’m curious. I’m really intrigued to see what happens in New York. We got a new coach who’s kind of a softy. He’s not Tom Tibido. He’s not not going to make these guys run through brick walls for him. So, the incentive to play every night is not going to be there for Josh Hart or Cat. Um Male Bridges will play every night because that’s what he does. But, um and Josh Hart, I’m not worried about him missing games. I am worried about Cat. Um I I I don’t think New York is the handsdown favorite to win the East. Uh like some people do because we just don’t know how this is going to work, man. Like you fire your coach and you don’t have a bench. I I don’t I don’t like that. Um but overall, uh I got to say I I really like this list and I agree with almost all of it. I I love to have Jaylen Suggs on my team, though. Hold on. this year. You would love to have Jaylen Suggs on your team. Really? Yeah. Tell me more. We We I I have not heard this this geekiness uh from you for Jaylen Suggs before. I’m surprised. I mean, I’m just I’m kind of I’m kind of on a Orlando tangent. And I like I really like the magic. I really like what they’re doing over there. Um we got rid of Cole Anthony, right? Um, so and I like I said, I think I said this a couple weeks ago, like they need to sit Jaylen Suggs down and be like, “Dude, we’ve got Desmond Bane, Fran Vagner, and Paulo Bancaro and Winnar Jr. and Mo Vagner. Uh, and maybe Nola Veovich. That is now the move. I want that move. Go ahead on. They get they get V. Uh, win the East. Um, he was a twotime allstar in Orlando. Hopefully, we’ve sat down with Jaylen Suggs and be like, “Look, dude, I know you’ve been banged up your whole career. I get it. You haven’t played many games. You’ve you’ve been uh hyped a lot, but you haven’t really come through at all.” Like, we need you this year, dude. Like, if Jaylen Suggs comes out healthy and balls, that that team could be unstoppable. So, I I’m kind of feeling like Jaylen Suggs doesn’t want to let his team down this year. I don’t think it mattered that much because they weren’t going to be very good anyway. I agree with everything you’re saying here, man. Uh but his style of play leads to injuries. The guy, he’s he’s a crash test dummy of a basketball player. And I don’t mean he’s a dummy. He’s not. He’s a brilliant basketball player, but a crash test dummy where they put the human in the car, they crash the car in the factory and the the crash test dummy does all this stuff and and it it doesn’t die because it’s a crash test dummy. It’s not an actual human. Um, Zubots, doc, this is why you demand because you got my head spinning. Look, I vetted Zubots. I didn’t miss anybody. I go through the whole league when I do this stuff and I’m like I’m really conflicted about this dude. It’s by far a career year. No doubt, no debate. Okay, Avita Zubots his last year I’m going to round he went 17 and 12. The year before he went 12 and nine. Okay, that was the previous best year 12 and nine. Uh and he went 17 and almost 13. Okay. uh he didn’t have a careerhigh in blocks. He did not have a career-high in field goal percentage. Not that I care. Uh but it stands out as a as a tremendous career year. Here’s my hangup, Doc. Here’s why he didn’t make the list, but based on this conversation right now, I may put him on the list. Okay. Uh I think he can do this again. Why can’t Zubots go 16.8 points and 12.6 boards with 1.1 blocks? So I think that’s replicable from him. I do. And so that’s why like like the career theory thing is are you capable of what you just did this year? Uh and Fron there’s no way Fron does what he did last year. This year there’s literally no way unless a bunch of guys get hurt with Paulo and Suggs and Bane. There’s no way Fron is uh going 255 and five. There’s no freaking way I will die on that hill. Okay, but why can’t Zubots go 17 and 12, Doc? Here’s why I love Zubots. The connection with James Harden, they are they’re joined at the hit, dude. They’re like uh what was that movie? Stuck on me with Matt Damon and uh what what’s that other dude’s name? Uh Greg Caner. You Greg Greg Caner. Yeah, it’s a phenomenal phenomenal movie. Okay, dude. That’s Zubots and Harden. Harden loves Zubots. They were on offense through Zubots. Okay, they set up design pick and roll, roll to the basket plays for Zubots. So, okay, I’m done on the Zubots thing. Do you think Zubots can go 17 and 12 again this year? H how many years has he been in a league? Like 10. Good question. uh he’s never come close to 17 and 30. Yeah, but he’s ne but he’s never ever been put up to bat like that. He played a career-high 33 minutes. The year before, Doc, he played 26 minutes. The year before he played 28, 24, 22, and then it’s in the teens. He was never ever ever put up to bat like that. And it’s no coincidence, Doc, heading into last year, remember he got paid $20 million a year uh around like big money. It wasn’t I think it was like just short of 20 million a year. But when I saw that contract to Zubots I was like okay they got plans for that dude like they are going to really and boom we saw the career year uh you know 12 shots per game. His previous careerh high dude his previous careerh high was 7.6 in shot attempts per game. Last year it spikes all the way up to 12. Why the Harden connection? Um so so go ahead. So I’m I’m just going to say this. I bet against him matching those numbers. I don’t think it’s possible. I still would happily take Zubot anytime after round four. Um I I think with Brook Lopez and John Collins in LA to fight him for those rebounds and those shots that that’s going to end up hurting him. He doesn’t have to play 33 minutes or 32 minutes or whatever it was with uh Brook Lopez there. Doc, I’m gonna I’m gonna put Zubots at the end of this list with with a bunch of question marks by it. I feel like, dude, you’re everything you’re saying is right on the money. Okay. Uh, can he do that again? Um, I I’ll I tell you what, Doc. I’m going to add him to the list, but I’m going to put him with Cat and Daniels and Fron and Zubots. Okay. Uh, they’re not full fades. Uh, I would still take them. I’d definitely draft Zubots. I think he’s going to have a very healthy double double. I don’t know if it’ll be 17 to 12. He’s going to have a very healthy double double with one plus blocks per game. Uh but so I would put him on the career year theory list, but as as a guy that it’s not a full fate. Okay, let’s get to our guys, doc, for this year. I want you to give me your list. Um and so just just run it through. I’m going to write it down. I got my list and then I want to see how many guys we have the same on this. And again, I want to explain this guys. These are guys that we think heading into this year are going to have career years. And Doc, I will I will say something. I excluded secondyear guys. Matus Buzzelis, Alex Sar, Donovan Klingan. Um it’s just like of course they’re going to have better years than they did last year. They’re rookies going into their sophomore year. So I excluded those guys. Um, and it’s and it’s like the veterans beyond that. Uh, so go ahead. Uh, I I’ll try to make this quick. I I went through every team in the league and and kind of picked the guy or the the two guys that I thought were going to have a big year for those teams. Um, so I’ll I’ll just go down some of those players. Uh, Paulo Bancerero is on my list. One who was on my list who’s probably not on yours is Jaylen Johnson. You know, it is time for Jaylen Johnson of the Hawks to either stay healthy and do what we all know he’s capable of doing or he’s going to end up on a bunch of people’s never again list. Um, I’ve got Brandon Miller. Uh, I’ve got Amen Thompson. I’ve got Benny Mathan of all people. Um, DeAndre Aton Rick. I doubt he’s on your list. I think he’s gonna have his best year because LeBron and Luca are gonna get in his you know what. Um Khalil Wear Terrence Shannon made my list. I don’t know if he’s a secondy year guy or not, but he is on my list. Uh I’ve got Jaylen Suggs on my list, which is interesting because you have him on your career fade list. Um, Admona, Devin Booker, your guy. I’m sure Booker is probably on your list. Um, Wimmanyama. I’m almost done. Um, Scotty Barnes, Philipski, and Bub Carrington, but Bub’s second year set probably doesn’t matter. Okay. So, you got Kulabali, too. You got Kabali. Gulab. All right. Uh, we have a lot of differences, Doc, and I love that. Uh, so first of all, you have, uh, Khalil Wear, you have Terren Shannon, you have Philipowski, you have Bub. Uh, I love Bub this year. Philip, I I see Philipowski, but but stuff needs to happen. I see Terrence Shannon. Uh, those guys are 30 deep guys for me, and and I do like Khalil Wear, although I think his upside’s a little limited because of the Norman Palition. Um, so like I said, I I’m I I excluded rookies heading into their second year and those four guys fall into that. But Doc didn’t know that. That’s just how I did my list. So there’s no uh there’s no uh no foul there. Um we agreed on six guys, Doc. That’s it. I thought there would be more. Uh the six guys. Hold on one second. I need a little squirt of water, Doc. A little Gatorade or something. Me too. All right. The guys that we have the same uh Paul Ben Carol, Jaylen Johnson, Doc, I had him as well. Wow. Uh that you know this is this is that last year, right? Like you you you’ve screwed me twice, but I I’ve hung in there with you. I got him in the Cam Dynasty. Maybe this year he helps me beat Andre in the championship game. Jaylen, that would be great. If that’s not the case, Jaylen, I will be trading you in the Cam Dynasty and I will never draft you again in reddraft leagues. Uh, but as it is right now, I think he’s gonna have a career year this year. Another one I agree with you on, pardon me, is uh Brandon Miller. Okay. Uh, Aman Thompson, I’m with you there. WBY with you there. And Scotty Barnes with you there. Uh, Doc, that’s six guys. So, let me put an extra little something by these guys that we You know, the only reason the only reason Devin Booker made my list is because you’ve been hyping him up so hard and like, “Oh, Rick loves Deon Booker this year. Booker is going to have a careerh high, blah blah blah blah blah.” So, you have you have gotten into my head about Devin Booker. So, when I got to Phoenix, I was like, “Oh, Devin Booker obviously is on this list.” And then you unveil your list. He’s not even on your list. What the hell is going on? Booker. Here. Here’s why Booker didn’t make the list. And And I I’m thinking now maybe maybe I need to put him on, doc. Uh maybe I do. He’s such a mainstay every year. He’s so freaking consistent that, you know, I don’t know. Like Yeah. Like Jokic. So it like Jokic. Okay. Let me take you through uh Devin Booker, his last seven years in scoring. 266 266 256 268 278 271 256. Wow, that’s incredible. It’s incredible. Okay, the steels suck. We know that. He’s been on one plus twice in his career. Who cares? Uh the assists over that same time with all the 26s have gone 6.8, 6.5, 4.3, 4.8. Those were the Chris Paul years. 5.5, 6.9, 7.1 last year. Okay. Could Booker go 28, which is a careerhigh, and seven and a half assists, which is a careerhigh? Yeah, Doc. I’m I’m I’m adding him to the list. I’m adding him to the list because like I I don’t think it’s going to be an out-of- body experience or anything. This is an all-time great player, the greatest scoreer in Suns history, and it’s not even close. and they’ve had some really good scores. So, I’m adding Booker I’m adding Booker to the list, Doc. It’s a good call by you. Um, I do think he’s going to have the best stat year of his career. I don’t think it’s going to be by much, though. But I do, dude, because he’s averaged 27.8 points. He’s already been at 28 and I think he’s going to get back there this year. Go ahead. Well, you you know, before the show in our production meet, our spirited production meeting, we were talking about BAM. You mentioned BAM at a bio, and I think it’s the same thing. I’m like, well, his numbers are already so good. Um, how can you expect a guy who’s been that good for that long to be even better next year? And I guess that’s exactly where we are with Devin Booker, too. It’s like, okay, maybe he is going to have a career year, but it’s his numbers aren’t going to jump that much because they they’re already too high. Exactly. And too consistent. Uh, so the guy, it’s seven guys that we agree on, Doc. Uh, we’re a collab here. And I love I love the Booker call. Like, yeah, this is going to be a career year from Booker, but like you, Doc said, it’s not going to be like a crazy career year. Uh, but we have seven guys we agree on. Ben, Carol, Jaylen Johnson, Brandon Miller, Amen Thompson, Devin Booker, Wii, and Scotty Barnes. Get as much and these are these are big boys, okay? But get as many shares of those guys as you can. Uh uh they are they are officially double vetted by your boys Cam and Doc. Now uh I’m going to get into my list here in a second. The other guy is Doc Hat, Ben Mathan. I like Ben Matan this year, Doc. I just don’t love his stat set. Not a big three guy, not a steel guy. Uh but I do see I will mess with Matin this year, Doc. I see I see kind of a a nice tasty bench year for him. DeAndre Aiden’s dead to me. Uh we’ve already talked about Jaylen Suggs. I love him. I just can’t in fantasy. Uh Bona may also be in the uh heading into the second year thing. Or is he a thirdyear player? But I do like the Bona call. I do like the bon call, doc, because of the Embiid injury and all that kind of stuff. Uh and then and then Kulabali. Yep, I could see a career year from Koulabali. That that’s a good call, dude. Thanks. Uh I don’t think I mentioned Jay Huff. I I actually had a lot more players on my list than I rattled off. But Jay Huff of the Pacers is also uh a guy that I think could have a big year. He’s going to be one of those uh super sleeper type late centers that I know Brussi is going to be fired up about him. I don’t know if you’re fired up about Jay Huff, but Bruce fired up is maybe strong, but I uh he’s a deep he’s a deep sleeper for me for sure. Well, Bruski was driving the Jay-Huff uh bandwagon last year, and I I was completely out, but I I’m I’m kind of feeling it now. Well, give me uh give me get rapid fire style. Give me your other guys that you think are going to have a career year this year. I don’t know. I’m It’s going to be hard for me to And most of them were rookies. TJ McConno, I didn’t mention uh Peyton Pritchard. Mhm. Uh Jay Huff, Jaylen Wells, but he’s secondyear guy, I think. Um I’ve got DaVon Mitchell on my list, and I don’t know I don’t know how much I believe in DaVon. I was so excited about him until uh they made the changes in Miami, but I’m still still hanging in there with DaVon Mitchell. Um, I don’t even Oh, uh, Jaylen Williams, OKC. I think he’s only going to get better for the next five years. Um, that might be it. I had a client, but he’s second year. I don’t even know who that is. Uh, that that’s it. That’s the whole list. All right. Uh, so we agree on JDub. Uh, I have him on my list that I’m going to give you in a second. And uh and I have no idea why I didn’t put Peyton Pritchard on this list. Like you you I you just found a typo in my essay. And the the last one I I have M. Williams written down. I’m like, who’s that? It’s Mark Williams. I have Mark Williams, too. I’m Okay, I’m glad. Pardon me. I’m glad I asked you to go deeper into your list. That is my list because uh I I now corrected the Pton Pritchard mistake. Um, dude, I’m geeked about Pton Pritchard. How did I miss Payton Pritchard having a career year this year? Uh, I don’t I don’t know, Cam. I don’t know, Cam. How you miss me? Probably because fake shack. Cuz I’m human. Humans make mistakes. You know that little thing we have to check when we’re doing a transit? It says, “I am not a robot.” I’m not a robot. We make mistakes. Um, Andre Leouch might be a robot. He never makes mistakes. He actually might be a robot. When his transaction thing comes up in Lapia and it says, you know, click here. I’m not a robot. He he pauses. He’s like, okay, I’m going to click it because I gota I got to do this transaction. Um, all right. Uh, we still got to do a win total thing here, too. All right. So, let me get you through my list, Doc. Uh, 10 that we agree on. Okay. They are Payton Pritchard, Devin Booker, Mark Williams, WBY, uh, Brandon Miller, Jaylen Johnson, Scotty Barnes, Paula Bancero, JDub, and Aman Thompson. Okay, those are 10 that Doc and I agree on. We talked about it. Let’s move on. Luca, I believe Luca Donuch, Doc, is about to have the best year of his life. I think Luca Donuch might average a triple double. I we’re looking at dude we’re looking at Dallas Luca again 33 34 9 and9 kind of thing. I think he’s going to have the best year of his career. Might win his first MVP Ant-Man. Um I doc I think he’s going to take it up another notch. Uh again like the Booker thing. I don’t think it’s going to be a crazy spike but it’s going what he does this year is going to look a little better than he did last year. He’s just on the ascent like that. Josh Giddy dot. Um, the Bulls are going to pay him. I believe they’re going to make this right. Josh Giddy is going to be the number one on an NBA team for the first time in his career and the numbers are going to be gargantuan. Uh, I got him on my career year list. Evan Mobley, again, it’s kind of like the Ant-Man thing where just every year it’s going to get a little bit better from him. So, I think this year is going to be better than last year, which was obviously an all-star season. Chad Holgrren. Um, I think we’re gonna get the best stat line from Chad uh of his NBA career this upcoming year. Pascal Seakum without Miles Turner, without Tyrese Hallebert, I think Seakum’s going to have a juicy year. I can’t wait to take Seakum. He’s not great in fantasy gold, but his P is going to be off the charts this year. Might be 2010 and five. Uh, Denny Abdia, doc, I think is going to have better numbers than he did last year. I do like Denny. Um, and uh, and then the last guy is somebody you mentioned, and I saved him for last. Bam. I don’t buy him. Okay. These numbers are so freaking consistent. Uh, last year 18, 9.6, 4.3. It was a down year, honestly, cuz he’s been at 19 and 20. He’s been at 10 uh, rebounds three of the previous five years, and it was 9.6. So, and and he’s been at five assists uh per game a couple of times in his career, but he was at 4.3. Uh and there’s uh not a career high in steals. He was.7 blocks per game, bro. Bam. That’s pathetic. It’s pathetic. Bam. 7 blocks, bro. Block some shots, please. Uh but he was at 13 per game, Doc, on 36%. Okay. That’s why I believe we got upside in the block category. We still got upside in the steel category. Uh his numbers are going he’s scoring more than 18.1 points per game. I think he’s going to get back to a 10 rebound guy this year with Norman Pal and Wiggins and Hero. You got mouse defeat. I think we could get back to five assists from Bam out of bio. We may even be able to get to one and a half threes. Okay. With improved I I think that three game is only going to expand from Bam. I don’t think he just had this year and then he’s not going to build on that. So that’s why I’ve got Bama Bio on the list, Doc. I think it’s going to be the best overall stat line of his career. Uh the fact I don’t have Luca on my list makes no sense to me. Uh obviously he’s on my list, putting them on. And that’s 11 that we agree on, by the way. And Josh Giddy, uh I don’t know if he can be better than he was last year, but he should be able to. I mean, he should be getting better every year at this point of his career. So, I I I like your list. It’s a good looking list. Um, I I could see I can see all those guys. All right. So, again, the guys we agree on, Luca Amen, Jayd Dub, Ben, Carol, Barnes, Jaylen Johnson, Brandon Miller, Wy, Mark Williams, Devin Booker, Payton Pritchard, 11 guys that we both agree on. Uh, and then Doc had some other guys and I had some other guys. Um, but that that was fun. That was a great exercise right there. So, Doc, uh, let’s get into um FanDuel win totals. Okay. And, uh, and what we want to do is get into today, doc, uh, the Celtics. Okay. The Celtics. Um, and please use FanDuel’s win totals uh, and go to sportsbook.fanuel.com and, uh, you can see it out there and make these wagers yourself. But uh FanDuel has Boston Celtics win total at 42.5. Doc, you going over or under? Wow. That they won 61 games last year and won the championship the year before and now they’re at what’ you say 42.5. Correct. Dang. That’s fewer games than the Detroit Pistons won last year. It’s about the same as the Magic. right in that magic territory. Um, they’re on a full tank. I’m going under, Doc. I don’t I don’t remember ever loving a wager in my life more than this one. I think Boston’s going to clear the under on this by 20 games, dude. I think this is a layup. How How does Boston get to 45 wins to 44 wins? Here’s my thing, Doc. If if they play Simons and White and Brown, but you’ve got Neimish Kada and George Nyang is your starting five and four. How is this going to work? How? It’s not. And guys, Boston should tank. It’s so obvious, Doc. Why wouldn’t they tank? I’m going to kill the Celtics if they don’t tank this year. I’m going to murder them. You all are idiots if you don’t tank this year. Doc, this is going to be a fantastic draft in 2026. Boston has their pick. Go do what Philly did and go get the third pick, the fourth pick, the fifth pick. Tatum’s then you’re bringing back two guys for 2627. You’re bringing back Tatum and you’re going to have a hot shot rookie to go with your group. Bam. You’re right back in the fast lane. It’s so stupid to try to win with Kada in the Yang. What? Come on, dude. They got to tank. So, I’m going on. Yeah, I think the Pacers losing Tyrese Halbertton are in a similar boat, but I don’t I don’t feel like Rick Carlile is gonna play that. He’s gonna play hard. They’re gonna try to win every game they can. They have TJ McConnell. Boston have they they they just need to cash it in. They just need to throw in the towel. Tank it up. Tank later. Indiana has such a deep team. They’re going to be able to win games uh without Tyrese Hallebertton. All right, guys. Uh before we get out of here, we would love you to go to your app store, download the Sports Ethos app. We’ve got continuous voluminous comprehensive blurbs on the NFL, Major League Baseball, and of course, our beloved NBA. Please go to sportsee ethos.com and subscribe to our work over there. We have a fantasy football draft guide that’s like no other in the business. We got pro football covered. We got college football covered. It’s $6 a month, 60% off right now. There’s no reason for you not to go out there. If you’re a fantasy football head, you got the best in the biz over here, me, Mosales, all the guys doing our thing and kicking ass for you. Uh we really appreciate you guys joining us. Andre did a phenomenal job with everything and always does for Hall of Famer Steve Alexander and all of you. I’m Rick Campla. Thank you so much for watching the Fantasy NBA today. This episode’s been proudly presented by FanDuel. See you soon.

Rick Kamla & Dr. A break down the “Career Year Theory” — a concept that helps predict which NBA players are due for their BEST season yet and who to fade.

✅ What is a “career year” and how can you spot it?
✅ Real examples where it worked (and didn’t)
✅ Can elite stars like Jokic still have a career year?
✅ Rick’s full Career Year List: Karl-Anthony Towns, Dyson Daniels, Josh Hart, Franz Wagner, Norman Powell, Jalen Suggs, PJ Washington, Quentin Grimes, Ty Jerome
✅ Who’s next in line for a breakout season in 2025?
✅ Quick segment on the Celtics’ projected win total

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