Can the Milwaukee Bucks be a top 3 team in the East this season? | 2025 Summer Mailbag (Part 1)

Can the Milwaukee Bucks be a top 3 team in the East this season? | 2025 Summer Mailbag (Part 1)

We are opening up the mailbag for today’s show. What was real from last year? What needs to happen for the Bucks to be a top seed in the East? And on the flip side of that, what would happen if things go wrong? We’ll answer this and a lot more on today’s episode of Locked On Bucks. You are Locked on Bucks, your daily Milwaukee Bucks podcast, part of the Locked on Podcast Network, your team every day. What it do y’all? Welcome to Locked OnBucks, part of the Locked On Network, your team every day. I’m Camille Davis, an NBA analyst with the Locked On Network and co-host of the Technical File podcast. Joining me is Frank Madden, longtime voice of the pod, founder of brewhoop.com. We appreciate you for tuning in and making Locked on Bucks your first listen every single day. We are free and available wherever you get your podcast as well as on YouTube. Today’s episode is brought to you by Game Time. Download the Game Time app, create an account, use the code locked on NBA for $20 off of your first purchase. Now Frank, as I mentioned, today is a mailbag episode. Now, if you did not get your mailback questions in, there is still time to submit. This is just part one. And even in part one, we still can’t get to every single question that we’ve uh had submitted so far. And there were some, as you can see, it’s just me and Frank here today. There are some questions that we need Justin here for. There were some Chris Livingston questions. So, you know, we got to save those until the whole crew is together. But today, um, some questions about what was real from last season and if we think that can be replicated in this upcoming season. Getting Frank’s opinion on who the second option is on the Bucks. Kind of like best case scenario for the upcoming Bucks season, worst case scenario, what would have to happen for those two things to happen, and then um, a ranking of most likely outcomes for this season. So, we have some fun questions to dive into for today’s episode. So, let’s start here. Frank, this question was given to us by ZKC on X. Do you think the fourman lineup datas for AJ Green, Kevin Porter Jr., Gary Trent Jr., and Giannis is for real, or will they come back down to earth this season? Now, before we started recording, I mentioned it. I looked on NBA.com and we talked about why sometimes you don’t want to get ded off NBA.com, but NBA.com said that that fourman group played about 111 minutes this last season in the regular season and they had a 38.9 net rating, 131.2 offensive rating, 92.4 defensive rating. So, Frank, uh, are those types of numbers real or do you think they’re going to come back down to earth somewhat this upcoming season if that’s a lineup we see a lot more of, which I’m expecting that we will. Yeah. And I was using Cleaning the Glass, which does it by by possessions. They had it them at plus 42.4 in 224 possessions. Um, I actually just because those possession numbers are are relatively modest. I mean, you’re basically saying like two full games worth of possessions essentially. Um, so I wanted to see, you know, what if I took out Gary Trent from from that group. Um, and I just looked at AJ Giannis and and KPJ or and yeah, AJIS and KPJ. Um, because kind of, you know, like a little hack in terms of lineup data for the Bucks last year, if you just include AJ and Giannis and stuff, like really good numbers come out. Um, if you take out uh GT, you get up to 349 possessions. So, you basically add like 125 possessions and your net rating falls a slight amount. You’re still at plus 37.0, 133.5 offensive rating, 96.6 defensive rating. And so, the question of like, is this is this real? A couple things. First off, the number of possessions I I have to say like if it’s under 500, I I take it with a very large grain of salt. Um because, you know, again, even 500 is you’re talking like five, you know, equivalent of five games worth of of lineup data. So, it’s it’s obviously not not a ton. Um, and then the other thing I always look at when I’m looking at lineup data to sort of sus out like, hey, how real is this is I look at the three-point shooting both for the Bucks and for the opponent. And sure enough, when you look at that part of this equation, that is really what is driving these numbers to be as crazy as they are. The Bucks and and again, I’m using that three that threeman lineup group, AJ Giannis and KPJ 47% three-pointers. I think the Bucks as a team are like 39%. So obviously they shot the hell out of the ball when that trio was there and probably more importantly I mean like on the one hand it’s like hey good you’re supposed to make shots you you know like that’s not necessarily sustainable but yeah like that’s the point make shots the other teams uh their opponents shot 28% from so um it’s not to say that you know the lineup data that the oppon that those you know your own and the opponent through point shooting has to be the exact same or something like that. I mean, you would expect the Bucks to shoot better from three than their opponents because that’s what they did over the course of the season, but obviously like, you know, a 20% difference um in three-point percentage accuracy between the teams is not, you know, a very sustainable thing that you’d expect to see over a very large sample. So, those numbers are, you know, pretty significantly inflated. Um, you know, when you dig into the numbers a little bit more, um, I think some of the encouraging stuff there is the defensive rebound rate was 21.3%. The opponent offensive rebound rate was 21% 79% defensive rebound rate. That’s 99 percentile. So when that those groups were out there, whether it was with uh Brooke or Bobby, they were tremendous at at rebounding the ball, which you know, especially when you look at um like the idea of of playing with some of these lineups, like they’re necessarily going to be a bit smaller. Um especially when you go to the version that has Gary Trent in there as as the fourth guy. Even if you have Bobby or Brooke out there, um you know, you’re basically playing a three guard lineup. And even with those four together, the three guard lineup plus Giannis and and another big, they were at 78% defensive rebound rate, which again is also like 99th percentile. Um they also forced a lot of turnovers. So they were 91 91st percentile in forcing turnovers, which I think kind of matches the eye test, Camille. Like whenever I group, I think of the fourth quarter against Minnesota when you know they went to the zone and just created like just tons of chaos. Um, so on the one hand I would say they’re not 37 plus 37 net rating good. Um, not surprising. Uh, but is that a lineup that you know you would look at and say hey there’s a real formula here. Um, and I think the when I think about lineups and like you know is this real or should this work? I kind of always apply like a couple layers of logic. I mean first it’s like does this make sense on paper right? Like does that grouping make sense right? Like do you have enough spacing? Do you have enough size? You know, can you switch? Can you not? Can you play drop with it? Like what are you doing? Like and does it does it just seem like, you know, using our brains, does it seem like that lineup should be able to work? Two is like let’s look at the numbers and see like does the data actually support whether or not it worked and then kind of doing some of these little like poking around to see if there’s maybe some fishy stuff going in the data. And then the last one I think is just like obviously like you know the eye test which you know you can put them in any order you want but like when those groups were together like did it seem like it worked? Did it seem like they have good understanding? And I think obviously like that was a huge part of the success late in the season. Um so yeah so I think there was something real there. You know we talked about in the playoffs I think that group was like barely positive net rating in the in the series against the Pacers. So it’s not like they were incredible in that series. Um, but obviously a lot of the other lineups were a lot worse. So, yeah, I think there’s definitely something there. And honestly, I think to me this is like one of the biggest kind of existential questions facing Doc Rivers is would he actually start those trio of guards together? I’m pretty sure KPJ is going to be one of the starters. I have been guessing Gary Trent is going to be the starting shooting guard. I’m far less certain whether AJ Green would also be starting. And you know, like he didn’t start many games last year. He didn’t like play as well when he started. That said, like I’m not going to use that as like a reason to just like say, “Well, clearly we can never start AJ Green.” Um, but there are obviously kind of just practical lineup balancing reasons not to start the that 300 together. Um, nobody wants to hear it’s because of Kalusma and Torian Prince needing minutes, but you know, it’s a lot easier to kind of build a more like on paper kind of normal rotation if you don’t have your two best, you know, shooting guards basically starting together. Um, because in theory like you’ think you’d want to kind of uh stagger, but as we saw like it worked really well. So, do I think those guys are going to close together a lot? Like, hell yeah. like they did last year and it worked. So, uh, so I would expect to see that again this year. But, you know, that big question, would Doc actually start that group? I don’t know. Let me say this. I think I don’t think it’s going to I don’t think they’re going to start, you know, on opening night. um if the Bucks get off to a slow start and some of those trends that we saw last year carry over where they’re closing and we’re they’re playing well when they’re together, that to me would be an obvious kind of lineup to go to maybe in a more desperate time, which is exactly what happened in the playoffs as well. Yeah. And that was my thing of like I wish we didn’t have to wait till desperate times to get to this lineup and like let’s just throw it out here and see what happens. And to the point of the numbers that were referenced here, like it makes sense why John Horse said, I know the sample size is small, but when we see the data, like we think that we have something we can continue to build around here going forward. So like there’s a lot I think to work with with that group, whether it starts or not is the question and one that I am very curious to see how it continues to pan out next season. got a really interesting question too about the ceiling for the Bucks and then if worst case scenario happens for him, why would a worst case scenario happen for this team? So, we’ll dig into that question plus more of the mailbag right after this. The next segment comes to you from our friends at Open Phone. Because if you are running a business and you know that every missed call is money left on the table, you got to think about that last time you had an urgent need, right? Maybe it was a plumber or a service provider. 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I actually recently found out that my doctor doc my husband’s doctor uh is an everydayer. So, shout out to Dr. Waysburn. And if you haven’t subscribed uh to the YouTube yet, make sure you do that as well. All right, Frank. This next question comes from Clayton from X and also MB on Blue Sky. They kind of had the same question, at least for the first part. Clayton worded it this way saying what would the ceiling for the Bugs be if they had a coach who didn’t start Prince at the two all year non facicious question though what would need to happen for the Bugs to be a top two seed and then MEB from Blue Sky also asked say hey it’s all-star break the Bugs have a top three seed non Giannis superhero division what went right and what has to happen to exceed expectations so Frank what do you think would have to happen for the Bucks to be a top two top three seed in the East this upcoming season. A number of things I would say. Um so obviously you kind of take for granted that Giannis just continues to do what what he’s been doing. Um so it sort of starts with that. That’s probably the part you have the least sort of concerns over. Um, I think probably another piece of this, um, you know, we’ll we’ll I think we’ll talk a little bit about like the second option sort of topic. Um, my guess is, as we were saying earlier, my guess is KPJ is the starting point guard. Um, and I look at him as like the highest sort of ceiling offensively offensive player uh among that uh grouping of KPJ, Cole Anthony, and and Ryan Rollins. Uh, so that’s part and that’s part of the thesis why I think I would start him is just because um, you know, I I know I like obviously what Ryan Rollins did last year. Really excited about getting him back on the contract that they got him at. um but he’s not the shot creator, at least hasn’t shown it consistently yet that you know a KPJ is or or a Cole Anthony is you know from kind of his a historical perspective. So I think you need shot creation, you need firepower um in that starting group. And so I would, you know, give the ball to KPJ as as your lead guard again. Yes. Is Giannis going to be you know kind of point Giannis maybe more so than he’s been in recent years? I think so. Although I was looking at data like the last for the last stretch there of the season without Dame Giannis’s like profile of like how much he was touching the ball like it increased a little bit like his touches things like that increased a little bit but like I don’t I don’t know that it’s like I don’t I don’t feel like we’re seeing some completely different like version of the buck necessarily. I think it’s just more consistently the ball in his hands. I mean, Giannis was still bringing up the ball, like even when Dame was on the floor a lot last year, you know, to the to the betterment of of sort of the pace of the team and everything, but, you know, it’s not like they were just having him set screens when Dame was out there entire time. So, um, I think KPJ is going to start and I think there’s a ton riding on KPJ to look, does he need to be a 20 per game point per game scorer? No. Um, but you know, does he need to get to probably like the Ross stat type lines that we saw from him in Houston, which we know is possible. He wasn’t a super efficient guy when he did when he was there last year. Obviously, once he came over, he was really efficient. Um, so I think you probably need like some combination of kind of that like volume scoring playmaking that he was doing in Houston, but doing it in a more winning environment than he was in Houston where, you know, it was pretty much like anything goes type of environment under Steven Silas. Like that was obviously not like, you know, a a great um let’s just say that those were not the most meaningful of stats he was probably putting up. Um, young team too with a lot of guys trying to figure out what their roles were. Yeah. But, you know, I think I was looking at the other day. I think he started 150 games in his career and he’s averaged 175 rebounds and six assists. Um, so if he’s a starter, I think I think there was like 33 34 minutes a game. So, I mean, if if he’s starting like you would expect he could put up something close to that, like maybe I’d put the overunder at like 15 or 16 points per game if he’s playing a lot. Um, but the flip side of is he’s not playing well. Like, you know, there’s not some, you know, I was talking on the Lockdown Hawks podcast the other day, like it’s not like there’s some like existential need that he’s going to, it’s not like he’s got like he’s not Dame or somebody who’s has to start every game and, you know, has to finish every game. Like, if he’s not playing well, I think Doc’s going to go with Cole Anthony or Ryan Rollins. Um, I don’t I think probably it’s more likely, you know, KPJ is 30 minutes or less rather than a guy who’s playing 35 minutes a game. Um, so but bottom line is I think you need a big season from him. Um, he’s gota, you know, really kind of help the Bucks, I think, become a more uptempo, faster paced team, you know, playing with better kind of energy, being more chaotic defensively and and he’s part of that, but I think a lot of these other guys that we’ve been talking about also need to be part of that. So, I think, you know, yeah, you’re going to need to see progression from Ryan Rollins. you’re gonna need to see Cole Anthony probably being like the more more efficient version of the player we’ve seen in recent years. Um, but he’s been a pretty steady like 18 points per 36 guy like clockwork every year. We’ll see how much he plays, but I’m certainly expect he will play. Um, and Rollins obviously can play one or two. So, I think all these guys are going to play. I think you’re going to see probably a lot of those guys in that like 20 to 30 minute range from night to night. whether it’s, you know, Rollins, KPJ, Gary Trent, AJ Green, um, and and Cole Anthony, I think, you know, it’s going to be a grabback probably how much those guys are playing, which maybe it makes a little harder to manage like if you’re dock because you have to kind of like figure out like whose hot hand you’re riding and things like that rather than just being like rotation. Yeah, exactly. Like I’m playing the starter 32 and I’m playing the backup 16, right? I don’t think it’s going to be that kind of set. Um, so I think you’re going to need those guards to progress. Um, you know, you’re going to need second half of the season, Gary Trent. I think even if you don’t get much improvement nominally from AJ Green, I don’t know that that’s that big of a deal. Um, I hope he is able to kind of push his three-point attempt rate up higher. It’s gone down the last couple years. Um, as teams have sort of understood how good he was. Um, and I think you guys talked about the other night, can he add a little bit more to his game? can he add a little bit more like pick and roll type of of kind of juice to his game. So, I think just a bit of progression which I don’t think is unreasonable from that guard group um given their age and where they are in their career. I think that’s a very key part of it. And then I think as you move to the front court, I mean Bobby Poris just needs to be Bobby Portoris. I don’t think you you need him to be some different player. I don’t think you should at this stage of his career. Um, and then I think obviously Miles Turner, you need to just sort of be the best version of himself that he has been. And you know, I kind of wonder like I I mean when you look at the numbers, like I don’t think there’s a obvious case that Miles is from a regular season perspective like a that he was like a significantly better defensive player than than Brook Lopez was last year. Like they had similar sort of onoff ratings. Their teams had similar defensive ratings with them on the floor. Like it’s not like Miles Turner had like, you know, all defensive guys backing him up like Obie Toppin and stuff like I mean they should have been better with him on the floor and they they were better but like you know three points per 100 or something like that better. Similar story with Brooke last year but I think I think he does give them a little more versatility and I think also just like changing it up a little bit like getting a new guy in. Miles Turner is going to be motivated. He’s going to have something to prove. um you know, not that like Brooke was lazy or taking things for granted or something, but you know, I think everybody probably got into a degree of a comfort zone with him. And I think having a guy like Miles who moves a little bit better, can play up tempo um going both ways a little bit more easily than certainly Brooke can. I I think you have to cross your fingers that this team can discover another level defensively compared to where they were a year ago. Yeah. you know, with older Brooke and of course with, you know, Dame playing maybe not the entire season, but a big chunk of the season and bringing his usual kind of trade-offs and on offense first defense. So, I think the defense, you know, I think I think we’ve talked about it before. I think if they’re going to be really good, if they’re going to be like top two seed, the defense probably has to be like top five. Yeah. Not even top I was thinking the same thing. And also better in the turnover forcing turnovers too that sometimes they’re a top two, top three seed. Yeah. And the offense, I think, uh, I don’t think they’re going to I don’t think they can create an elite offense with this group of players. I don’t think they have like the individual sort of star power outside of Giannis to do that. Um, but you know, it’s almost like I mean, you you’re a big Green Bay Packers podcaster like just kind of occurred to me almost is like it’s almost like the like the Packers wide receiver core where it’s like a lot of guys, you know, Yeah. like a lot of guys who are like pretty good players, you know, and like work well with Giannis in terms of a lot of guys who can shoot do different things um and can be good enough on, you know, kind of both ways. Um so, you know, can that sort of lack of a star end up being a little bit of a benefit because you can’t as easily game plan for the way they like to play? I don’t know. that’s maybe our, you know, August glass half full sort of way of approaching it. Um, so I think, yeah, but I think the I think they have to kind of really become a defensive first team. Um, which I mean I think Doc Rivers and Budnoer and everybody has sort of like wanted to do that every year is like kind of hang their hat on defense. Now I think they really need to do that given the lack of offensive firepower. Um, and then I think on offense, you know, I think the hacks are obviously playing faster, right? Um, which Miles will let you do. The guards I think will let you do. You don’t have to tell Gary Trent twice to take early shot early clock threes in transition. Um, you don’t have to tell AJ Green, hey, pull up from, you know, 30 feet if you if you got an open look. Um, probably the thing that’ll slow them down the most is Giannis just being tired and like walking the ball of you know, like Giannis is either like pushing it hard for fast break buckets or walking it up and, you know, them getting their offense slowly. But uh but I think the I think the hacks on offense are shoot even more threes. You love the league in three-point percentage, shoot more threes with Giannis and his gravity. I think that’ll be I think it’s a reasonable ask. Um I think they need to have probably be, you know, better at cutting and moving off the ball and being a less static offense. Um especially if you’re playing through Giannis um who’s a guy that obviously has been I mean I think come passer like you know the high low game that he’s had with Brooke you know he’s figured out how to pass the ball to cutting players a bit but for the most part you know this is a team that Giannis Giannis’s movement allows guys to just sort of stand there and go wide open catch and shoot looks. It’s not like as much like a Jokic type thing where, you know, guys are moving and he’s statuesque and doing dribble handoffs and throwing stuff, right? Um, and I don’t think he needs to play like Giannis or play like Joic or something. But, you know, I think just more variability would would be helpful, more movement off ball. I think that’s something like a team like Cleveland showed last year, like why they were so dynamic. Not just three-point shooting, but just people moving, being more dynamic. Um, and then I think the other piece is especially if you can be a better defense and get back more easily um, with Turner and the kind of these quicker players, can you actually be not by far the worst offensive rebounding team in the league? Um, yeah. You know, I mean, again, like it’s not uncommon that teams choose to um, focus on getting back in defense rather than crashing the offensive glass. I think with a guy like Turner, um I think Van and Justin mentioned it the other day like the Pacers were always like way worse on the offensive glass when Miles is on the floor, which is completely logical because he’s spending a lot of time at the three-point arc. And the same thing was true with Brooke. Like if your center is like picking him and popping a lot, you’re not going to get offensive rebounds at the same rate versus if that guy is stationed around the basket. So that’s just natural. But, you know, we saw it with Bud in the kind of later stages of his thing. You know, picture Grayson Allen would dart in from, you know, the corner on a shot and just try to bat the ball out to get a second chance. There’s things you can do potentially, which wouldn’t necessarily result in, you know, a lot worse transition defense. I think to maybe give you a chance to be a little bit better at getting reloads because honestly, that’s a big part reason why the Bucks offense last year was like just weirdly, you know, I always say the less than the sum of their parts, right? Jiannis and Dame, highest scoring duo in the league, best three-point shooting team in they’re a mediocre offense. How how does that work, right? Well, no second chance uh no second chance shots is is a big part of it. So, so yeah. So, a lot of things probably especially to get two seed I think would be very difficult, but I think it’s you basically have to be an awesome defensive team and then you know you figure out a way to really be a pain to play against with Giannis and then basically transition and movement and some things that they have not done historically. Yeah, I agree with you on that. And the only other thing I would add offensively without Dame, I’m wondering who else is going to be able to generate enough pressure and get to the free throw line consistently because Giannis and Dame were a great free throw duo of forcing the free throws, getting to the line, getting those opportunities and I just wonder like Bucks have been a team that have been uh great with their free throw rate and getting to the free throw line over the last couple of seasons. So, um can you continue generating points that way? We know Giannis can, but who else can put that pressure on opposing defenses and get to the free throw line a bit more often? Now, I was a bit ambitious, Frank, uh, with our with our list of questions for this mailbag. So, when we come back, I’m going to give you a dealer’s choice on our last question for this episode today. So, we’ll get into that right after this. I have mentioned it before and I will mention it again. I personally love game time because I’m a procrastinator and game time is a type of place where if you decide the last minute to head to a game with friends or family, game time can come in because it’s the easiest way to grab last minute tickets without the stress. With the money that you save on tickets, you can splurge on food, drinks, merch, and I always got to get a shirt when I go somewhere. I need a merch shirt every single time. Or you can even invite more people to come along with you. Game time makes it possible. Game time makes buying tickets fast and simple because the prices on the app actually drop the closer you get to first pitch, to tip off, so on and so forth. They have incredible lastminute deals, plus clear seat views and the lowest price guarantee that takes the worry out of buying. For example, if you ever get tired of endless scrolling, actually trying to find the best deal, Game Time has zone deals which pick the best seats in your section for you. So, take the guesswork out of buying tickets with Game Time. Download the Game Time app. Create an account. Use the code locked on NBA for $20 off your first purchase. Terms apply. Again, create an account and redeem the code L K D O NA for $20 off. Download the Game Time app today. Last minute tickets, lowest price guaranteed. All right, Frank. So, like I said, a dealer’s choice type of situation for you here when it comes to the last question for the mailbag. We had the question that was like, hey, if things go drastically wrong, what had to happen? So, we can go the pessimistic route a little bit kind of at the other side what we just discussed. Or we have another question that is asking to rank the most likely outcomes for this upcoming season, including a possible MVP, defensive player of the year, six man of the year, and the return of a former Buck. So Frank, how do you want to end the show? Do you want to go the flip side of what we just talked about or taking a look at some possibilities? What’s most likely to happen for the upcoming season? It’s August, Camille. Why why be negative in August? Um, so let’s do the the outcomes uh likelihood for uh for good things happening. How about that? I’m with them vibes right there. So this question comes from Luke L via email. He asked us, rank the likelihood of these outcomes. Giannis MVP, Miles Turner defensive player of the year, Bobby Portis six man of the year, and Chris Middleton returning in a buyout. He said, “Feel free to throw in any other award outcomes you think could happen.” And obviously this is a for funsies question. Not intended to be taken seriously at all, but I thought that this was a really fun and interesting question. Frank, what order do you have? Giannis MVP, Miles Turner defensive player of the year, Bobby Porter, sixman of the year, and Chris returning in a buyout. What’s the order from most likely to least likely in your opinion? You know, uh, I’m gonna be nostalgic, Camille. I’m gonna say our guy Cash Money Middleton coming back on a buyout, uh, would be the most likely I I mean, I have no inside knowledge of this, but um, I I think my understanding was, you know, basically he wouldn’t be able to to be resigned by the Bucks anyway until a year uh, post the original trade. So when he was not bought out um as Marcus Smart was, it kind of made me think like h like could could Chris maybe have like said like I’ll hang out. I’ll wait I’ll wait for my buy because because then I can go back to the Bucks. I don’t know. I’m be I’m perhaps being like just very much too too nostalgic um about it all. But uh you know, let’s just say small forward is not really a point of strength for the Bucks right now. Uh anyway, um so sure, uh le let’s let’s let’s think be think about reunions and um you know, Dame can go back to to the to Portland. Maybe maybe Chris can come back and and have his swans on Swan song in Milwaukee. Um so yeah, I mean, you know, what do I think are the the actual chances of that? I don’t know, like percentage-wise, I mean, I’m not going to say it’s like, you know, really high, but I don’t know. 25% I don’t know something like that. And as I was thinking about as I was thinking about that then I was thinking well if that’s the 25% likelihood that has to be the most likely outcome because I don’t think any of these other things um are are as likely. I don’t think any of these other things are 25% likelihoods to happen. Um, I think if we’re going to rank them, I mean, I think the Mi Miles Turner being defensive player of the year, I mean, there’s a very interesting like you could see like kind of a narrative happening where, you know, he’s he does block a lot of shots, which awards voters like blocks. We just talked about in the prior segment how if the Bucks are going to be good, they need to be really good defensively. And obviously having a Thank you for that. Yeah. and having a top defense, especially when you didn’t have it the year before, you bring in the new center, like the obvious narrative would be like, “Oh, Miles Turner showed up and helped the Bucks turn around their defense and they’ve been the surprise package team.” So, you can sort of talk yourself into that. That said, I mean, Miles Turner has not been an elite defensive player in recent years in Indiana. You know, I think early in his career there was a bit more. I think he did have I I forgot what what his highest uh I don’t know Camille if you want to double check his basketball reference. You can see like what his highest defensive player of the year ranking was. I’m not I’m curious if he’s made has he made like an alldefensive second team even. Um but bottom line is he he has not it’s not like he’s been contending for the defensive player of the year award in recent years. Um, so I think that one probably would have to be the least likely just because I just don’t think Miles Turner is a defensive player of the year caliber guy. The 201819 season he finished fifth in defensive player of the year ranking. That was the highest he’s ever finished. He finished ninth in the 202021 season. Okay. So it’s so 2021 20 so it’s it’s been you know five plus years since he was like in that conversation. Yeah. Um and look of course like there are other reasons why the Indiana defense was not particularly good for a long stretch there that you know wasn’t necessarily his fault. Um but yeah I don’t think that’s going to be kind of the what happens. Um although Camille would not be the first time that a guy who is not a defensive alldefensive team guy, not a defensive player of the year guy comes to Milwaukee around this age and then suddenly becomes the anchor of an amazing defense. So maybe if he can take the Brook Lopez playbook, you know, he can he wouldn’t even have to reinvent himself as much as Brooke did, right? Like Brooke was considered like a poor defender um for a lot of his the early stages of his career. So uh so yeah, I’d say that’s probably fourth. I’ll say Chris is first and then I will say um I’ll say Giannis is still um I would say Y put Giannis after the Chris return. Giannis MVP is the as the next one there. Um you know I think you have to I think I was kind of joking um half joking on Twitter the other day because I think Justin Tony from Sirius said I think said that like Giannis has the worst supporting cast of any superstar. Um, I always wonder when that’s when people like say that like like how many players are superstars because I think I think like some people think there’s like five superstars and some people say there’s like 25 superstars. Um, so I’m not sure exactly what what was behind that exactly, but um, but I would say like yes, let’s let’s let’s have everybody start to buy into that. We gota we got to pump up the Giannis MVP narrative. He’s got no help, people. He’s got no help. the Bucks are even remotely respectable, then Giannis must be the MVP. Um, that’s the narrative we should be going with. Um, you know, I think that was sort of the Jokic narrative like two years ago when he won and they weren’t particularly good. Um, so, so hopefully, uh, yeah, if people buy into that, that’s great. Um, and the bottom line is, I mean, Giannis has essentially been, you know, a top three MVP guy. Yeah. Pretty much every year here since he started winning them. So, um, so I think it’s sure he should be in the mix. Um, and we’ll see. I mean, Luca has a number of years in Dallas. He was like the odds on favorite and then falls off. Doesn’t happen, you know. We’ll see. I I’m I’m not as sold that like Skinny Luca is automatically going to be like so much better than his old self. I feel like Luca and Joic like part of their power is being like fat and like the more the more the more fat and injured they look like the better they play somehow. So, um so I don’t know. I I feel like the dad bod may have been part of his his secret sauce. We’ll see. Um but they obviously have to win at a at a you know a high level to to justify him being kind of in that mix and and we’ll see. I mean you know Joic is Jokic. He’s incredible. Um, I think the Nuggets will be better this year, so it could help Joic’s case. Yeah, that certainly helps Joic’s case. And then, um, you know, with with Shay, he won it, so he’s already won it, so there may not be as much appetite to give him another one, but he just won the championship, too. So people, it’s not like he won it and then, you know, got knocked out, had a bad playoff run, and then everybody lets that affect how they view them in the upcoming season. Yeah. Exactly. So, yeah. Yeah, I mean I think that’s the four. Um I don’t think I’m missing anybody that like would reasonably be in the mix. You know, obviously Embiid with the injuries, like I don’t think anybody was going to talk about him really um at this stage. So So we’ll see. But I think Giannis has a chance. Wouldn’t say he’s a favorite or anything, but there’s I think there’s an angle. You know, if the Bucks win 48 games and are the four seed, I think they have to be top four for the Giannis MVP thing to actually happen. I think they have to have home court. I think if they won 48 games, there’d be a lot of like, oh, look at the Bucks. Oh, wow. We, you know, we’re ready to bury them. So, um, so I think that’s kind of what what would need to happen. And then, um, Bobby, six man of the year. I mean, he’s been a finalist for year. So, kind of like the Giannis thing. I mean, he’s been in that mix. Um, I’d say the six man of the year is, you know, a kind of a weirder award. It’s more of a vibes based award than certainly MVP where people actually like give it some real thought. Um so again like is there a you know vibes Bucks are a pleasant surprise and Bobby is a big part of that type thing like could be. Um you know Miles Turner historically has not played as as many minutes as Brooke did the last couple years. um not by a lot, but Miles has generally been like a shade under 30 minutes per game. Brooks was Brook was up over 30 the last few minutes the last few years. So that, you know, could mean more opportunity for Bobby. And also Brooke was never hurt. So, um if Miles Turner misses, you know, 10 15 games a year as opposed to two or three or whatever Brooke was missing, um then that would mean, you know, just more run for for Bobby to uh to to put up numbers and everything. So, so we’ll see. Could be, but um you know, I I definitely wouldn’t wouldn’t expect it, but uh yeah. So, those are my rankings. I don’t know. What do you think? So, I think that I would go with the Giannis MVP as most likely just because he’s been top three the last few years and I think there’s a narrative component if the Bucks have a good year this year where it’s like, okay, we’ve seen the dominance in the numbers from Giannis the last few years, but now we also have narrative associated with it and there’s no other superstar playing next to him. So, like I can see the argument for the Giannis MVP case really strongly. So, I think I’d put that first. I think I would put Bobby Sixman of the year second honestly. Um just because again he is somebody who’s finished top three not last year because he didn’t play as many games last year but the two years before that top three finished a sixman of the year. Um and there could be just more opportunity for him to soak up those minutes as you mentioned. I’m gonna go with Chris return for turning in the buyout as three. Um because again kind of you hate Chris because you hate Chris. That’s really what this comes down to. Everyone knows how I the everydayers know how I feel about 22 and his he’s finally 22 again this year um in Washington if I remember correctly as well. So I think I’ll put that third and I would put the Miles Turner defensive player of the year fourth. Not because there’s not a chance he can’t do it. I just think those other things um could possibly be more likely than him getting defensive player of the year this upcoming season. But like I mentioned, Frank, I was really ambitious with the amount of questions I pulled for just the two of us to answer here. Yeah, but one of one of the people was me. So, you know, you’re going to get you’re going to get a longass podcast if you if you’re asking me to talk about like open-ended questions ranking four different things, Camille. Like, you know, by the way, my my percentage probabilities 25% Chris returns, 15% Giannis returns, 5% Bobby, six man of the year, 2% Miles Turner defensive player of the year. I’ I’ve crunched the numbers. The number man came through with the numbers for y’all. Don’t ask me for the spreadsheet, but I’ll act like I have it. See, the next time we do this, we actually will need the spreadsheet because one of the questions that we didn’t get to today was looking at next summer and some cap possibilities for that. I mentioned there was some Chris Livingston questions that we wanted to hold until Justin got back. Check yourself out, Justin. I’m letting you take those. Listen, we got it. We got the Chris Livingston part down when Justin comes back. And then the more pessimistic side of it of like if the Bucks were in eighth seed at all-star break and people weren’t hurt, what went wrong? So, we have so many more questions to get to. There is still chance for you to get your questions in if you have not yet already. You can tweet at us, hit us on Blue Sky, drop them in the comments. There’s also a post on our YouTube um asking for the mailback questions. So, feel free to drop them there. We have a long August, so we’ll have plenty of time to get to these mailback questions. So, thank you for making Locked on Bucks your first listen today. For your second listen, find the Locked on NBA podcast where there is no offseason. Doug, Madd, and Hayes will keep you up to date on contract negotiations, rumors, everything you need to be the most informed NBA fan. So find Locked on NBA on YouTube or wherever you listen to podcast, part of the Locked On podcast network, your team every day. We truly do appreciate you tuning in and for Frank and myself, we will catch you later.

Frank Madden and Camille Davis tackle mailbag questions from the everydayers.

They break down the Bucks’ potential for success, analyzing lineup performance and discussing key strategies. The duo explores Giannis Antetokounmpo’s MVP chances, Myles Turner’s defensive impact, and Bobby Portis’ Sixth Man of the Year prospects. Plus, they discuss the team’s ceiling and best-case scenarios for the upcoming NBA season.

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