The Rockets Just Built A Powerhouse…
What is up fellow sickos? I am Dan Favlli coming at you with the start of the 2025 2026 NBA season look ahead series where we speak to a guest who covers an expert who covers every single team in the NBA and we I get to ask questions. They get to give me answers. We all learn a ton. As a quick reminder, subscribe because this is a lot of work whether it’s on YouTube, Spotify, Apple. Um our guests put in a lot of work, I put in a lot of work, Grant puts in a lot of work. So, we begin with the Houston Rockets, which means we get to talk with Red Nation hoops Salman Ali. Follow him on the social machine, Salman Ali MBA, s- an L A L I NA, and it’s also on the screen if you’re watching on YouTube. And go follow Red Nation Hoops. Um, subscribe wherever you get your podcast, including YouTube. The link to his socials and his podcast will be in the YouTube and podcast description. Salmon, we spoke recently, but how the heck are you doing? I’m doing all right, man. How are you? I’m doing fantastic. I am I’m a little bit upset because the Rockets didn’t give us anything to talk about this off seasonason. So, I just don’t like what are we going to discuss here? I mean, you know, we could just talk about like Josh Kogi in depth, I guess, if you want to do it that way. Like like do you think he ends up being like I don’t know averaging 35 37 minutes per game. Like where do we think that ends up? You know, I I I would lean a little bit more conservative. I would say on on the 34 minute, you know, I would even go lower than you. Yeah, that’s low. I don’t they don’t have anyone else on this team who could defend. So like who are you going to play other than Josh Kogi? I mean I guess you know like you can use like I guess like anybody anybody from the coaching staff because they have some you know real they have some real guys. Can you check himself in like Yeah. I mean I I think I think you could try. Yeah. Why not? We do have to start with Well, I want to ask you just the offseason question at large. It’s anchored by the Kevin Durant. There was other things that happened. Um, what did you think of their off seasonason overall? And I think more I think everyone agrees that the cost they gave up for Kevin Durant Durant was fine, but did you agree that this was the time to make such a move? Was he the right player to to capitalize on and go after at this time too? That was the right price to pay for a player like that. And if and if that if you’re getting that price that player on that price, then it is the right time, right? And I think when you look at what the Rockets are uh financially uh and where you when you look at where the Rockets are like talentwise with their young core, what development stage they’re at, it does feel like they needed just a little bit more on the scoring side um to to push them over the hump to get into that, you know, title mix with the likes of the Denver Nuggets and the Oklahoma City Thunder um in the Western Conference. So, yeah, I think I gave them an A. Uh I I I I really liked what they did. I thought they killed it. Um I I on my last podcast I said if there’s someone in the if if anyone is saying that anybody had a better off season than the Houston Rockets, they are talking out of their ass, right? Like I I think I said that, right? Like I I said that verbatim and I and I was like listen I think it’s cute that people are saying that um that the Oklahoma City Thunder had the best offse in the NBA because they resigned their guys. It’s like okay cool, right? Like so they didn’t mess it up, right? Like like that’s basically what you’re giving them credit for. You didn’t mess it up. But if you’re saying someone other than the than the Houston Rockets had had the best off season in the NBA, I think you’re full of it. I I just think there’s a there’s you’re you’re full of it. I think I said So we haven’t done our grades for the offseason yet here, but I will say two things. One, that AJ Mitchell contract in OKC is going to hit like cocaine. So they clearly had the best offseason in the league. Okay. Um, but for real, I want to I just want to ask you because I don’t I’m not going to give my opinion on this. Do you think that there’s any team that you’d be willing to listen to and are I think a lot of people might site the Clippers perhaps as a team. The Clippers had the these are good off seasons, right? Like like the Clippers had a good off seasonason. The Denver Nuggets had a good off Atlanta Hawks had a good offseason. These are all good off seasonasons, but the none of these teams got better to the extent that Houston did and achieved the long and short-term goals uh better than Houston did, right? Like I I I’m cognizant of the fact that there are rebuilding teams that had good off seasons for what they are trying to accomplish, right? Uh but when you look at let’s just isolate it down to the contenders, right? Like the teams that actually think they have a chance. I don’t know if there’s a team that got better to the extent that Houston did without sacrificing a lot of their, you know, future. Well, I think that’s a big part of it is Orlando getting Desmond Bane home run edition. I think sure they gave it wasn’t a steal. And I think you can make the case that even with Kevin Durant’s age, even with whatever extension or his next deal ends up being, even if he shortens the window, the price they paid to get him, and I’ve seen the some of the push back, not to me specifically that I’ve seen is that people wanted to see what Jaylen Green would look like after going through the playoffs. All due respect, he’s super young. I think like we’ve just seen enough to know that like he wasn’t worth holding on to and passing on for this opportunity. That deal was not treated as a net positive asset in the deal. It was not viewed around the league. I can say is a net positive asset. And so I am with you in saying I I think I just off rip because I haven’t given a consideration. I would think the Houston had the best offseason rel I mean the Dorian Finny Smith contract is stupid. Two guaranteed years. That is stupid. Like that a stupid awesome to be clear. So I would agree with you. I don’t think there’s I’m And I’m also probably not as high on Denver or the Clippers as offseasons as most. I think the Clippers probably have the best case to get in there. But I think you’re absolutely right. This team was the second best team in the Western Conference during the regular season last year. They added Kevin Durant without like obliterating their draft assets. And I think the one move that you could quibble over and you and I both lamented it a little bit was the Cam Whitmore trade to Washington. That dude had no path to being the Cam Whitmore that you want to see while he was in Houston. There was just no path. When you look at the depth and talent on this team and that’s ultimately a like a harbinger of like that’s a great problem to have. Maybe it’s not ideal, but that’s an excellent problem for Houston to have to grapple with. Yeah. And like they needed to they needed to like finalize on who they’re going to pick, right? To build this this core around, right? And they narrowed it down to five, right? They traded away Jay and Green. They traded away Cam, right? And I don’t know if if all five are going to stay around, right? I It’s just funny that the number is still that high. They trade away Jaylen Green and Cambridge like Yeah, they narrowed it down to five, right? uh went from seven to five and like they but the point is like they they couldn’t pay these guys, right? They couldn’t pay all these guys. We kept saying it for years. It’s like listen, it’s great that they have all these guys. I understand Rockets fans are building out their future with all these with these seven guys. It’s like, oh, this is going to be their team. Why Why can’t they pay all these guys? It’s like, well, there are real restrictions here, right? Like I I don’t think you’re being realistic if you think that they can pay all these guys. I think Cam was one of the guys that like personally I might have tried to keep but if you look at what they did the calculation that they made right Odoko was not going to play him next season. Okay, fair consideration. His value was not high to begin with. He fell to 20 in the draft and they could not nab a first round pick when they tried to trade him this year. Right. That’s a fair consideration. His value was only going to go down from here if especially if he wasn’t going to play. That’s a fair consideration. They couldn’t pay him, right? They they couldn’t they couldn’t they couldn’t possibly pay him. That’s that’s another fair consideration. And I guess the biggest one is Dorian Finny Smith was like someone they felt they had to go get, right? Especially for that contract. They felt like they had to go use their mid-level exception and go get that guy uh on on that contract. And if if the cost of Cam Whitmore is if the cam if the cost of getting Dorian Finn Smith on that contract is having to trade away Cam Whitmore uh because there’s not a role for him anymore. I think it’s I think it’s reasonable. It’s a reasonable tradeoff. The only the only point where it’s not a reasonable trade-off is if it’s is if Cam Whitmore makes an allNBA team. I think if he makes an all-star team, I think it’s fine. I think like I honestly think if he makes an all-star team next year, yes, it stings. I think it’s still fine. If he makes an allNBA team, that’s that’s that’s the voter base saying he’s one of the top 15 players in basketball, and it’s hard to stomach that. I would agree except this could be a James Harden isn’t a good analog, but James Harden never would have been James Harden in Oklahoma City had he stayed there. And if Cam Whitmer becomes an allNBA player, I don’t think he had any pathway in Houston with or without Dorian Finny Smith to becoming that player because there would have been other players with the ball in their hands first and that’s how Cam Whitmore is going to become an all NBA player. Well, I think there’s a there’s a case to be made that his role would have been increased if C if Dorian Smith wasn’t here and he could have proven him. But but like I’m with you. I’m with you. Like he probably would not have been able to show star, you know, potential here, right? I I I think it would have been very difficult for him to break into the rotation on that kind of a level. Uh and and the organization um when you account for Eme Udoka believed in other guys more and I’m talking Reed Shepard. I’m talking Jabari Smith Jr. I’m talking Tari East. I’m talking like like they just were not there ever there with Cam Whitmore. You could disagree with it, but if the organization just is not there, what can you really do? Right? like that that they’re making an evaluation that’s not too dissimilar from the rest of the league. I may disagree with the with the organization and the rest of the league, which kind of where I’m at, right? Like I think Cam is really really good and worth investing in, but I don’t think I never projected him to have all NBA level play, right? I I never impre I never thought he was going to get to that level. So, if he’s not going to get to that level, I think I think they did a reasonable thing. And if that’s if that’s your one nitpick, right, which I think it’s most people will nitpick with the Rockets off seasonason. I I think they had an A offseason, like I I think the one thing I’m still waiting on like to give it like an A+, right? Is like a Tar East extension or a Kevin Durant extension. We need to see what those numbers are and we need to see if that happens, right? To really like, you know, give this like a like a home run off seasonason in terms of process. Like who knows what happens in the NBA season. Injuries happen, whatever, right? In terms of process, the Rockets had the best process out of any team in the NBA. And that that that’s the case I’m making. Also, you could make the case that Phoenix comes across looking worse from the Cam Whitmore situation because they preferred second round compensation. That was that was weird to me, too. Yeah. So, I want to ask you about Kevin Durant. One of the most scalable superstars in NBA history. Like, we’ve seen him change teams enough to know this. um never spends like too much time off the ball relative to what you might think, but his spot frequency in Phoenix the past two years uh hit career highs each season I believe. How should we expect him to be incorporated into the offense? How do you see the offense changing with him this coming year? I kind of think the off the offense is going to look very similar to what it was last year. Uh you’re in terms of like the the Jaylen Green role is being filled by Kevin Durant, right? they’re just gonna make a lot more shots, right? Like they’re gonna make a lot more shots. Offense might be a little bit more slow, right? But in a methodical sense, like I don’t think it’s gonna be a bad kind of slow. They’re just gonna be more deliberate, right? In terms of what they do. Um I think they’re going to try to make it egalitarian just just based on how it’s looked like last couple years, right? They they’ve tried to they’re not they’re not fans of the homogeneous offense, right? They they don’t want everything to revolve around one guy. Um, I use the wrong word. Homog homogeneous is the right word. Um, they don’t want it to be heliocentric. All right. Like from from what I can tell. Um, he’s also not that player anymore to be fair. Yeah. Well, not not and what I mean is like not in terms of not just him. I don’t think they they want to be held with anybody on the roster. Uh, from what I can tell. So, I think they’re going to try and do a kind of their best faximile of a ball movement, player movement, offense, um, with Kevin Durant kind of slotting in where Jaylen Green was last season. And they’re going to try and, um, I mean, they were 12th in offense last year. For playoff teams, that’s pretty bad. For regular team, that’s pretty okay. So, I think they’re going to try and get to be like a top seven offense. And I think that they have improved shooting. they have improved um uh halfcourt decision- making and I think what strikes me the most is that they have reached the point where they are ready to put all their chips in um in terms of like this is the core we want to build an offense around uh and this is the core we want to try and play with. Um and I I I think I think we’re we’re going to have to see how it develops offensively like the the This is going to be Eidoko’s first year really. Like no one’s really graded him on the offense uh until this year, right? We haven’t really seen what he can do with real pieces. Like it’s everyone’s kind of given him slack because we understood what he was working with. Now it’s like, all right, man. Like you got the big coach money this year, right? Now it’s time to to have a big coach offense. There’s I think I’m most excited to see uh one you’re right about their offense just Kevin Durant the way his efficiency is their first chance offense was not great last year it was like close to the bottom 10 you just put someone in there who’s probably going to be in let’s say the 75th percentile of effective field goal percentage that helps your first chance offense a ton um I’m also excited to see and I don’t know if you would fall on the same wavelengths I I just hope we get a an extensive look at like the Kevin Durant Alper and Shenun two man game because I think had Alpurn Shangon and we’ll get to him in a minute just hasn’t had a lot of space to work with and now he’s going to see fewer double teams if teams go to double or trap Kevin Durant like him operating um after setting a screen out of the short role like the things he can do on the move as a scorer as a passer are kind of terrifying and I think Kevin Durant I think there’s a case that Kevin Durant might augment him more than anybody else on the team. Yeah, I I think that’s true. I also think he augments uh Aman Thompson pretty well. Like you know the the guys who really like don’t have a jump shot yet. Like he’s and are you know very talented players, but like you know they they don’t they can’t shoot. And like Kevin Durant is just a much more he’s just a much bigger magnet than Jaylen Green, right? Like in terms of getting defenders to actually close out and close out hard on him, double him. Um sometimes like I I think there is going to be a much more focus on him uh from defenses than there was Jaylen Green. I think that’s going to help everybody on the floor. I think you’re right. Uh Ahan Shenun hasn’t really had a floor spacer like this, right? In his defense like Fred’s a pretty good shooter, right? Like I think Yeah. I I think I think he’s like a real deal like Okay. Like I can count on him to hit spot up threes. Um Chabari Smith is getting uh better. He’s he’s, you know, kind of rounding into the prospect that um Houston envisioned when they first drafted. I mean, he did really well in the playoffs, but he shot like 40 something% on threes in the playoffs. Um, him just turning into like on offense, like a floor spacing wing. It’s just like that’s huge for them. Sure. Yeah. And and I I but I do think there’s still going to be spacing concerns because Houston is leaning into double bigs again, right? Uh but it’s something that they are pricing in. this something they want to do themselves. They want Stephen Adams and Alpurn Jangun looks. They want Clint Capella um on the off night to take uh Stephen Adams spot and and and you know play double big. So there’s still going to be a little bit of a cramped floor for uh Shenun, but definitely less so than in past seasons. And honestly, I think when you look at who is going to be like the biggest the best distributor for this team, I think I it should be they should finally give the keys to Alper and Shingun. It doesn’t have to be heliocentric, but they should try and give him more of a featured hub look. And so we’ll see if they can do that next season, especially with Kevin Durant. I think that that would look really nice. He’s play Kevin Durant’s played with great passing centers. Zaza Pulia uh was a pretty good passing center in a Golden State and um I mean no no offense to Zaza but Alurn Shen is much better right at that. Yeah. You mentioned Reed Shepard before. I also kind of took their off seasonason. I know they brought back Aaron Holiday and Fred Van Fleet is still here but I took their offseason as kind of a vote of confidence in him and I think from what we saw in summer league that was the smart bet to make. What type of a role do you expect him to have out of the gate? And like what type of I think even just as important is what type of latitude do you think they’re going to give him to develop on a team that has such lofty goals? Yeah. I mean to to start last season he was in the rotation, right? Like which is crazy. Like I was surprised that he was in the rotation to start. Now they eventually uh went away from that and went more towards Aaron Holiday. Uh but he went to the G-League for a very small stretch and never came back cuz they’re like, “Oh, he’s just too good for this, right? Like we can’t do this, right?” And so, yeah, he’s going to be their backup point guard. He’s going to be one of their core like eight, right? Like that at least they plan to make him one of their c their featured eight. So, we’ll see if like he is up to task this season to really stay there for the entirety of the season. But that’s their plan. Rafel Stone said at a press conference um I think it be believe last month that yeah, he has to be really good for us because we are going to be leaning on him. I mean after Fred Van Vleet and after um um yeah after Fred Van Vleet and after Holiday, there’s really not much point guard depth on this team. I And that’s by design, right? Like they want um they want Reed Shepard to be that. What do you think is going to be the especially when you look at the context of this team? What do you think is going to be the swing skill or contribution from him that either cements his play? Okay, they can use him as the backup point guard or they’re even thinking about, oh, do we need to increase his profile on this team off the dribble creation? Uh, I think that that has to be the swing skill for him. I mean, like we know he’s a great shooter, right? like we know he he should be able to provide that. But if he is like a a talented off the dribble creator uh not not only for other players but for himself, right? If if he is a real scorer off the dribble off the bounce, they don’t have much of that on the perimeter other than Van Vleet and Durant, right? Like I think they need someone else to step into that and that role is right there for Reed if he if he can take it. the I think he’s going to make, you know, I’m high on Reed Shepard. I think he’s going to make multiple AllNBA teams when all said and done. I think the key for him all NBA teams. I think he’s going to be a better defender than people think. I think that the off the dribble scoring is going to be there. My questions would be on this version of the Rockets specifically. I think the passing is going to be there and I think in certain lineups he’s just going to have the space to wreak havoc and create for everybody else. My two questions would kind of be is or I guess it’s a singular question. You did mention that there still are concerns about the spacing. And so if you’re putting him in lineups that don’t have one or both of Kevin Durant and Fred Van Fleet in there, can he do anything to continue putting defenses in rotation, getting his teammates open, are they hitting those open threes? And maybe even a bigger part is like Kevin Durant quietly like he’s just not drawing as many shooting fouls as he did before. And like Aman Thompson is such just like this nuclear athlete. he will draw fouls, but they need like someone like because Van Fleet and Durant probably aren’t going to do this who can put real pressure on the basket or like operate from the outside in and get those like looks at the charity stripe. That hasn’t necessarily been a strength of his or at least isn’t noted as one. And so I’m very curious to see if he I again I don’t know what to make of the rim pressure of it all when you look at the spacing he’s going to work in. But is he someone who can I don’t want to see him bog down the offense, but is he someone that can get them those easier scoring opportunities by working through contact, getting to the foul line? In terms of who? Uh, Amen or No, no. Sheepard a man can get to the I mean Thompson could get to but like Jaylen Green was like that’s someone who could like they kind of going for you lose that element a little a little bit now in terms of collapsing the defense. You’re asking, right? And getting all the way to the basket and just like Dr. Like cuz Kevin Durant doesn’t get to the rim as much as he did like anywhere near as much and he’s just when you look at the percentage of like his foul rate or shooting fouls drawn that’s been going down and look he could still do it and he makes difficult shots. I think he’s a fantastic player but that’s an element that I could see this offense missing a little bit and I wonder if Reed Shepard is able to fill it. I I I wonder too. I mean I I think listen like in terms of like what he was scouted to be. Yeah. I think he very much was has the capability of being that guy. I wonder if he’s strong enough now. I wonder if he has uh developed that handle to the point where he is ready to actually like dribble through traffic like that, right? Like that that that is a skill that is hard to develop. Jaylen Green really struggled with that. It’s just part it’s part of the reason like he never became that guy, but he you know did collapse defenses, right? And so I wonder if he is able to get to the point as a ball handler this season to actually do that. Um I I suspect that that role, you’re right, that role is going to be there for him. Um and when you look at how he’s built out his body over the summer, the Rockets certainly want him uh they’re they’re aiming for him to be a kind of a a collapser of defenses in that second unit. Um, I wonder if like role-wise once we get into the the the teeth of the season, like if there’s going to be m if there’s going to be opportunities for him to be that guy because there are there are a lot of talented players on this team, right? Like it’s it’s going to be a case of like are the Rockets committed to giving usage to him, right? And I think when you look at just from a ball handling perspective, they should aim to, right? because you can’t exhaust Van Vleet like that, right? And as much as I like Aaron Holiday, I think Aaron Holiday is pretty good. He’s a good backup point guard, I I don’t want to give that to him because I don’t think he’s capable of collapsing defenses like that. So, if re I Yeah, I think I think they’re going to try. They’re going to at least try to do that. He’s going to he’s going to at least try to do that. He’s capable. I don’t know. Nobody really knows yet. I think he’s going to be able to do it, but that’s just something I’m kind of clocking. I meant to ask you this about Kevin. By the way, I just want to say this, like I I I I know I I like kind of scoffed a little bit at the AllNBA teams. That’s not to say that I’m dismissing that he can do that. It’s just like, wow, that’s that’s we’re that’s early to say that now, right? It’s I guess coming off the rookie season relative to what he did in the NBA, that’s probably even spicy. But I’ve seen enough in summer league watching some of the it’s I’m I’m there. Uh if I end up dying on that hill, honestly, I’ve died I’ve died on worse hills. So listen, there are a lot of people that are really high on rephepering including the rocket. So I don’t I don’t think you’re wrong to pick this hill. I wanted to ask you this about Kevin Durant. I don’t want to spend too much time because this part of the podcast could become dated. Do you like read into anything of him not having an extension yet just because or do you because the difference of him waiting six months is like a couple million bucks and I had kind of just operated under the assumption that he wasn’t going to get the max and I think that’s obviously better for the Rockets and the longer we go without hearing an extension makes me think that he’s just going to get the full two-year freight which to be clear would not be the end of the world but I kind of just thought that they were going to come out of this looking even better by like oh Kevin Durant took a two-year $95 million deal or something like that. I actually it’s interesting. I actually had the exact opposite opinion. I thought when he first came here he was going to get like the two-year freight, right? Like two or three year freight and like the longer this goes on like okay, so there’s negotiating going on, right? Like there has to be, right? Like that’s interesting. Yeah. So there must be some element of this contract they haven’t ironed out yet. And I I suspect it’s going to be something. this might be like a mutual uh option type of deal, right? Like I like if I’m thinking ahead of what other teams are doing around the NBA, right? Or where they’re giving, you know, these player options and a team option or like guarantee dates like they’re doing it in a way where you can you’re giving both sides an option out the option to get out, right? I think there’s a possibility we see that. That’s like that’s like optimistic. Maybe they’re they’re debating player option versus team option. Maybe they’re debating non-G guarantees like they did with James Harden’s contract in in in Los Angeles. Like I I suspect it’s something along those lines. I think the number I don’t think the number is max because if it was Max, I feel like it’s an easier negoti like those details about the non-G guarantees that’s much faster than this is taken, right? I feel like it’s going to be less than max. Um and just the the verbiage that you’re starting to that’s starting to come out. I I feel like it’s I I don’t think this is going to be a max. I I I suspect we’re going to see a team friendlyish deal, but not maybe not a team friendly deal. That’s a I like that read. I’m going to choose to uh you’ve now converted me. That’s what I’m going to look I I almost thought just like you know how you see rookie extensions just get done when everyone’s back at training camp. I just assumed that negotiations were largely on hold until like Kevin Ran is probably like jet setting all over like the world at this point for brand obligations or whatever and so that they haven’t really had too many extrations yet. But I like your read on it better. So I’m going to just because it aligns with my my priors of where I was at at the trade. Yeah. I mean like with Luca like a lot of people are questioning why the Luca trade Luca said you didn’t have it. That was more of like I’m sure they had that extension negotiated, but they’re waiting for for them to actually be legal. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. So, like people were wondering like is it because Luca’s in Europe? It’s like no man, he doesn’t have to be here for the extension to get done like he like it’s 2025. You think he actually has to be in LA or Chicago or New York or any No, he can be wherever the hell and sign the extension. Well, with with KD it could be different because they haven’t had like an intro press or anything with him yet, right? Yeah. That’s strange. I I I think the Rockets um I the I don’t know why to be honest. I don’t know why the Rockets didn’t do any sort of intro pressor, but they put his name on billboards and and like they like he he’s they’re generating fan excitement for him. Like they’re you know the jerseys are selling like hot cakes, right? Like I I think it’s more of a okay this is something this is like something we don’t want to do um because of either you know Kevin Durant uh obligations with you know as you said the the brand stuff or like we’re so close to the season at this point let’s just wait let’s just go in and let’s just wait till media day and he can get the full presser then. So the double big stuff is or it’s like I mean depending on when you look at how some of their non- bigs actually play it could be like three four big stuff, however you want to say it. What surprised you most about those kind of looks last year? No, the fact that they did it in in the first place like like it’s and and I don’t mean that to be as a pjorative like it does feel like the NBA is kind of going in the opposite direction with this with this um with the bigs, right? like like it’s I felt like for a while power forwards that can’t shoot like no we’re not doing that anymore right it’s going to be at least four out and now we’re getting to the point where like okay like bigs are extremely important because you look at the best players in the NBA Giannis Joic um Embiid right like like these areama right like these are all massive human beings and you need bigs that can defend them and if you don’t have that can defend them. You need multiple bigs to throw at them. Um, and some of the contenders in the Western Conference are going double big. So, there’s also that reaction to the contenders, right? Like, uh, you the Thunder with Homegrren and Hardenstein, right? Like the Rockets are reacting almost to these other teams, right? Or like that that would be kind of my read like they’re preparing they’re preparing to play these other teams deep in the playoffs. Um so like in 2018 when they went after um PJ Tucker and Luke and Ba Mu like they were preparing for a specific assign. They were they’re preparing for the Warriors, right? This summer it feels like they’re loading up for what the West looks like now in 2025. So I think that’s what’s what’s surprising. The fact that they did it now it makes more sense. Um it’s effective for them. Sure. I It’s surprising that it’s working. Sure. Um but maybe it shouldn’t be because other teams are doing it as well. Well, I think what’s interesting about what they’re doing is so actually two things on that is so last year they like they played 330 possessions with Adams and ShenGun on the floor. And so like that’s more party trick volume than like this is going to be our identity. And the fact that they brought in Clink Capella, I just found I didn’t have a problem with whatever. I found it interesting that it felt like oh okay like Jabari Smith Jr. going to have to like we were talking about last year like should he play more five and now it’s like well how much three will he have to play so I just found that interesting because my other point on that is a lot of the teams you mentioned and it’s not like this everywhere like Dallas is trying to do something similar where both of their bigs are basically nonshooters and Alpurn Shenon has some touch but like between him Steven Adams and Clint Capella there’s not a floor spacer there and like even Evan Mobley like developed more of a three-point shot last year to play Lopez can shoot in Right. Miles Turner playing next to Jiannis attent. So I I find that to be I don’t we the numbers on the to be clear the numbers if anyone hasn’t looked at the lineup data and I’m talking about even with Ahmed and Thompson on the floor they are gaga. They are insane. But I I just found it I find it interesting and we’ll continue to be monitoring it where okay Adams and Capella neither of them are high minute bigs now. So there’s still going to be time to you know navigate these lineups in a different way. But I’m just I’m very interested to see how this pans out if they make it more of a regular thing over the course of an an entire season because yes, it is I agree with you that it is like a reaction to maybe what’s happening around the league, but they’re also kind of zagging where everyone else is zagging or however that’s Yeah, the it’s very much Stan Van Gundy. We’re going to form a [ __ ] wall like around the the rim, right? Like with all the the length that we have, right? And we’re going to we’re going to crash the glass hard. And last year it felt like they had to do that because they didn’t have the level of offensive creators that they have this season. But like now they don’t, right? Like now now they don’t have to go hard on the offensive glass anymore, but they still want to because they they’re like, “Oh, I mean the Rockets as an organization have always chased advantages that the rest of the league wasn’t chasing, right? Like three-point volume was something they did early, right? Uh wings was something they did early, right? Now they’re they’re going after the offensive rebounds, which have always been there, right? like it’s always been there for someone to take, but the Rockets are like, “Oh, like we’re gonna we’re gonna be the team that takes it, right?” Because Stephen Adams, like it’s not just that these guys are good rebounders, right? Because there are a lot of good bigs that can rebound, right? These are good offensive rebounding bigs in particular. Clint Capella is also a good offensive rebounding big, right? So, these guys these are guys who crash the glass, right? they they they’re not just ending defensive possessions, they’re going hard at the at the glass. Tar East as well. Um Amen Thompson like like so they’re they’re going after a certain character of guys um that does this and um you know I I think I think it’s an interesting strategy. I mean it’s certainly a way to make up for the fact that maybe you don’t have as much floor spacing. Um, but it also is a very now it is a very deliberate strategy. Whereas last year maybe by necessity, this year it’s like okay by choice. The other thing that I’ll be watching with it and I’m just curious your thoughts on it is they actually did I was surprised a good job of getting out in transition with those double big lineups. And I think a lot of that had to do with the personnel they could surround them with. they were better at forcing turnovers because you could take more gamles and like they actually weren’t getting out in transition a ton off of the rebounds because if like Stephen Adams grabs a rebound on the defensive end like he’s maybe not going to be as skilled at getting the ball out of his hands as quickly or down the floor as another person would. Do you worry about now putting Kevin Durant in some of those lineups at all? Losing that aspect of the identity because Kevin Durant’s not like a hardwired transition type player either. Yeah, certainly not at this stage of his career, right? And and like I think um here here’s my thing and I had this conversation on my last podcast. The deflections are still going to be there, right? Like like like Tar East, Amen Thompson, Jabari, like these guys are so long and active. They are not going to stop trying to get deflections. So do I think the fast breaks are going to slow down? Maybe. But like the the transition opportunities won’t, if that makes sense. they may just go into a half court because, you know, not everybody gets back like so they’re they’re still going to force transition. They’re still going to force turnovers, but they may not um finish the possession the way that they did last season. The conversion rate may be different or the the way they convert may be different. Next thing I want to talk to you about is can we go through just some of their younger players, younger on quotes because some of them aren’t super young and just like what are you watching the most or monitoring with them for next year? And we will begin with you might have heard of him everybody. Amen Thompson. So I I said this um something I said on my last podcast. I I think for Houston to I painted the picture, right? Gatorade’s being poured on Eay Doka. If Fred Dave Leit’s on on on the bench asking his fiance like, “Hey, what finger should I put this ring on?” Right? Like like I if that’s happening, right? Like if the Rockets get to that point, if they’re actually, you know, winning the title, what happened likely is that one of these guys became an allNBA player, right? Somebody else other than Kevin Durant. And the two most likely candidates for that are Amen Thompson and Alpar Shenun. One of those two still have that ability to make that leap. Um, they have other opportunities to improve their game that have not been explored. Shooting for both of them haven’t been explored, right? Being a hub hasn’t been explored for either of them. Playmaking hasn’t been explored for a men, right? Like like just having the ball in his hands and being asked to create, right? Like that has not been explored for him. Um, so there are ways that these guys can become real guys, right? like championship level guys. We’re just going to have to see if um like if it happens for one of them. And I suspect they have that kind of talent. But is it going to happen next year, right? Like is it going to happen for these guys next year? And if it happens next year with the men specifically, because you asked me about him, listen, like it’s no there’s no it’s not a secret anymore. He’s one of the best defensive wings in the NBA, right? He’s just he’s awesome. I think the the next step that everybody’s looking for is okay, put the ball in his hands. What is going to happen there, right? Like it’s not like him scoring messy buckets anymore. Okay, we know you can do that, right? We know you can you you’re very good at cleanup. You’re very good at at finishing dump offs. You’re very good at finishing lobs. You’re like, we know you can finish at the basket, right? What can what are you what can you do when we put the ball in your hands and ask and ask you to do something? That’s what I’m looking for with him, man. If they ask him to do that, that’s what I’m looking for. What do you see the I guess like the volume at which they would ask him to do that when you have Durant, Van Fleet, and if the plan is to have Reed Shepard in there. I think Durant um you know, like when he speaks about basketball, I’m not sure if he’s the most articulate basketball player, right? like as when he talks about the game, but when he plays the game, I think he’s smarter than a lot of people give him credit for. And I think like a lot of the pressure that that that comes from creation actually comes from other players, right? Like, hey, we need we need to feed this guy. We need to give this guy the ball a little bit more. I think having bring Kevin Durant in could actually bring pressure to give balls to guys that actually deserve it, right? Like I I think having Alper and Shenon get more looks or having Amen Thompson get more looks with the ball in their hands. I think that comes from the players more more or less right the more the most talented players on your team force those conversations and I think that’s kind of where that emphasis that that inclination would come from the players Kevin Durant I think Kevin Durant recognizing that talent when he comes in I think that’s kind of what I would what I would look as for like an an initiation like and you know the coaching staff listen like it’s they’ve done a very good job offensively I haven’t seen much from their ch like what other than the offensive rebounding thing, like I want to see if they can start that conversation themselves, but I I I I tend to believe this conversation comes from the players. So, yeah. I mean, what what forces that conversation? I think Kevin Durant I think Kevin Durant coming in and saying, “Hey, we got to give this guy the ball more.” I that’s a really good point that I thought of. And I also think what helps Ahmed is so many people will be focused on just like the the jump shot of it all. But he did shoot over 50% on floaters last year. And so if he can have more and we saw some like fadeaway stuff, but if he can just have more counters or maybe operate at different cadences as he’s getting downhill from dead stops, I think like that to me is easier for him to integrate than oh hey, can you hit like these long mid-range jumpers or these set three-pointers? if I could like I I there there’s a quality about him that um I’m gonna mention a name here. I’m not let me just be very very very clear. I am not at all making the comparison in terms of what the end product will be or like I’m excited. I’m officially excited. When LeBron came into the league, he was not a talented shooter. No, listen listen hear me out. Hear me out. Hear me out. It’s not He was not a talented shooter, right? But he just made shots in that like 12 foot area off of instinct almost like not like when he wasn’t trying to shoot, right? Like just like making instinctual basketball plays. And a man seems to be pretty good at making instinctual basketball plays, right? With the floater, with the fadeaway mid-range jumper, right? Like it’s like he has that kind of smart, right? It’s not. People talk about a men’s smarts in terms of oh, he’s a really smart cutter, a really good defender, really good um, you know, passer, right? Like, yeah. Yeah, he’s all those things, but also like in terms of knowing when to attack and kind of how to attack, like he’s pretty smart at that too. Like when he’s rolling downhill, like Jaylen would get scared, right, when the basket got walled off, right, and he would kind of make a panic pass. A man doesn’t do that, right? like a man figures it out, right? He’s good at figuring it out, right? It’s a very like like the last time the reason I mentioned LeBron is the last time uh the first name that comes to my mind in terms of like a player that would like instinctually figure it out even though innately like yeah LeBron wasn’t like a good three-point shooter coming into the NBA. That was not something we expected from him, right? But like he figured it out, right? in terms like he figured like he when he would go into the when he would go to the basket, we knew he would make something happen even if that wasn’t at the basket itself. So a man um that that’s kind of what gives me confidence that a man can figure it out is he has a smart about him in terms of like he’s very creative in terms of like instinctually knowing what to do, right? He has a he’s a basketball he’s he’s a basketball player’s basketball player, right? Like he’s very very smart. Um on on the offensive end, where are you at? And I know you kind of mentioned this a little bit. What would you be watching for with Alper and Shangun this year? Um some some of that hub stuff also like he he took a dip in efficiency inexplicitly last year. Like he went from like a 60% true shooting guy or like a 59% true shooting guy to like a 54% shooting guy. It’s very random. Very random. I think he had a season ending injury the season before. If I were to guess what happened, I guess that was it. what happened like maybe it was the injury that was slowing him down. We’re going to finally find out if that was an albatross season or not, right? Like like like the efficiency if that comes back. That’s number one. Go ahead. Yeah. Oh, no. Go ahead. No, I was number two. Number two is like will the team make him a hub, right? Like will the team make him more of a hub? Um will will they will they drive offense through him, right? Will they ask him to playmake for others? Will they will they do some of the split cut actions that they did in Golden State? Actually, I think the Rockets are pretty well adapt adapted. They have great cutters, great a lot of athleticism, a lot of shooting uh with Kevin Durant on the wings as well. Like I think it’s smart players, all that stuff. Like I I think they can do a lot of split cut stuffs that um they didn’t go state. So I I I’ I’d like to see him do more of that. My reductive answer would be I would like to see if he could become like even a the Domas Sabonis level three-point shooter like get up three attempts per game and knock them down I think would be big for the offense but I’m actually more curious to see we mentioned this a little bit with Durant. I just want to see what the interplay looks like between him and Durant but also maybe him and Reed Shepard if those two are going to get minutes together. So that’s what I’m kind because I know you’re talking about the and look this is a guy who already playmates for his teammates so I get what you’re saying about the hub stuff. Um, I’m just very curious to see what the type of synergy they attempt to carve out between I’m just most f there’s other players on the team. A man Thompson, Fred Van Fleet. Sure. I’m most fascinated to see what the interplay looks like between him and Reed Shepard and Kevin Durant because they’re both like they’re the new pieces here technically even though Shepard was there last year. No, for sure. I mean, like we I want to see pick and roll with with these guys, right? Like I want to see more like Jay again like this is I don’t mean to keep bringing them up but like the J one of the biggest frustrations about Jaylen Green and and Alre and Shenun working together is that they didn’t do it as often as they should have and that their games could have worked together right like if if Jaylen was making shots at the level that he you know was you know could potentially make right like I think it could have worked out really well and if the team was more deliberate about giving those guys a looks like in terms of pick and roll looks, I think they they went down like a lot last year between the two players. So, I want to see more of that this year between um Alpin Shenun and other guys like he he’s good at rolling to the basket. Like I think people don’t think of him that way, but he dunks, he finishes at the basket with both hands. He’s he’s he’s creative, crafty, like all that stuff. He’s good at finishing, right? I mean, last year he wasn’t good at finishing, but traditionally he’s good at finishing, right? Like usually he is good at finishing at the basket. So I’d like to see him get more pick and roll looks next year. I think that’s definitely something that would be that should be explored along with the high low, you know, stuff obviously. But I think this is something that everyone’s going to be watching Eay Udoka and like what he can do as an offensive like I I I think the guy who has the most pressure on him this season on the Rockets is actually the head coach, right? I think people get are gonna say are gonna say it’s Reed Shepard. I don’t think it’s Reed Shepard because I don’t think like even if Reed Shepard can’t fill that role this year. I think it’s like the the Rocket season isn’t hinging on him filling that role this year, right? They can just slot in Aaron Holiday and be fine. I think what the Rocket season is hinging on is Eime Udoka like his offensive chops. I think that’s kind of what I’m looking for more than anything, the usage of these guys in a creative way. And I think that’s why so if you said if you said right now like who’s the one player this team couldn’t afford to lose without knowing more about Udoka’s offensive philosophy you could say Kevin Durant if you really want to but the real answer is probably like they’re less equipped to navigate a Fred Van Fleet absence right now when you look at how the structure of their offense is going to go. You can maybe make you make the case for Shangoon too. Um so yeah I I’m curious to see how their offensive identity is going to change. One of the most fascinating players in the entire league to me is Jabari Smith Jr. though. So in the context of this team, I thought it was cool how he definitely played within his role more last year, but like what are you really locking in on with him this season and I’m assuming it’s going to be on the offensive end because he feels like we we just know that like we kind of know what a lot of these guys are on defense for the Rockets and Jar Smith Jr. feels like one of them. I I’m still interested to see if he can get to another level defensively to be honest. Like I I think he’s a he’s gotten to the point where we know he’s going to be a good defender, but how good? I’d like I’d like to see. There’s still some stuff there. Uh but offensively, for sure. Yeah, you’re right. Like I think um I mean, can he carry over the level of shot making that he had in the playoffs, the regular season, right? Like it it does seem like confidence-wise he got to a point where he’s like, “Okay, like I’m I’m just being asked to be this guy, so I’m just going to be that guy, right?” Like I am that guy, right? That’s where I was drafted to be. And so if he can be like that dead eyee shooter in during the regular season, like that’s a great starting point, man, right? Like he’s already a good enough shooter to still be worth playing, right? Because of what everything he does on the boards and as a defensive player, but can he be someone who’s asked to be like a dead eyee shooter? Um I I never believed in like, you know, people made the Paul George comparisons. I was never like someone that’s like his high-end like outcome, but I don’t believe like that’s something that I should expect from him. LaMarcus is someone I was like more LaMarcus with a three-point shot is like someone I compared him to a lot. And LaMarcus obviously played on these really talented Portland teams where he kind of didn’t have to be like the fulcrum of the offense until like actually quite late like like until like his late 20s, right? because like that’s when Brandon Roy was injured and like like the the options opened up for him and so I think I think I suspect that’s kind of what’s going to happen with Jabari like he’s not going to be asked to do those mid-range fadeaways they may be there for him but I don’t think the Rockets are going to ask him to do that. So, I think later on once the roster thins out a little bit, which it will, it’s going to thin. Right now, this is the deepest it’s ever going to look, right? It’s going to thin out over time as financial constraints come into play as they as guys get older. I think that’s when you look to him as an offensive player. But right now, I’m not really interested to see like him being force-fed looks. I don’t think that’s something that even he wants to do right now. I agree with you on all those accounts. I actually probably have fewer questions about can he be a knock. I just think he’s going to be, especially with some of the looks he might get teed up with if Shepard is who I think he is and now having Durant on this team. My question is does he get to a point where like the handle is good enough to where he can attack he was he was 88th in drives per game last year. I don’t think the handle was that bad. Like I’m I’m not going to lie. Like I think last year confidence then to put it on cuz the turnover rate on drives actually wasn’t too bad last year. But the volume even for his offensive role to be like basically like 300th. It was like 288th or whatever in drives per game. Like there should be for someone of his caliber, can he put the ball on the floor, get all the way to the basket? That’s another way that maybe the Rockets could increase their their free throw attempt rate as well. I think that’s actually my biggest question with him. So like he going coming into the NBA he he did have a very shaky handle but I have seen that year after year improve and last year I just thought we saw a reduction in like the usage of him as a ball handler right and a lot of that is like you know he’s he wasn’t a starter anymore right like that that’s that’s some of that like towards the end of the season he he was coming off the bench some of that is a men Thompson coming into his own some of that is just like listen we want Jaylen Green to be more of that guy and like you don’t really need to be that like like that was some of that. I think that’s going to kind of carry over a little bit more next year. But to be honest, open court like I saw him go end to end, right? Like like the year before last. Like I saw him do that and credibly like finish, right? Which is like like that’s a real step like up from where he was coming out of college. So I’m I’m not as concerned about this handle to be honest. I I think it’s I think he’s going to be he’s never going to have a very tight or like very crisp. He’s he’s not going to be a guard with a he’s not going to have the guard level handles, right? If you’re asking whether or not he’ll ever have perimeter level handle, I don’t know to be honest. I don’t know. But can he have above average big handle? Yeah, I think that potential is still out there. If you’re like I think that potential is still out there. Do you think that he can be the like attacking closeout type of guy that you first of all I mentioned the handle like you probably don’t even need a spectacular handle to do that? And like I’m probably just I still have more questions about the finishing especially if he’s going to get contact than you do. Like I I understand the context of the offense last year, but like his rim percentage dropping a little bit isn’t great. And I think like adding that dynamic to I mean he could be the player he is right now and that extension is still just great business by the Rockets. So I want to make that clear. But I think that I’m I’m with you that he doesn’t need to be forcefed those touches. Like maybe he gets to a point in a career where he can do that or the Rockets need him to do that. It’s not right now. But I think it opens up a lot more of the Rockets half court offense and then his game just in general if he is someone that defenses have to worry about like attacking more of those closeouts because that attacking closeout rate just wasn’t there last season. I think it look it to me it does go beyond the handles like do you trust that guy to finish through contact or to follow through on his drives all the way to the basket? And I still just I don’t want to say distrust. It’s just something I still have a question about. I think I would suspect he’s gonna be more of like a pullup mid-range guy like like like in terms of like one dribble pullup off a closeout which I think that that seems to be what he’s more comfortable with next next season. Um I mean in general and like next season I think like there’s just the paint’s going to be kind of sneaky cramped for Houston, right? Like I I think like especially for someone who still like like he was never never had the strongest like finishing slash ball handling ability. I don’t know if he’s going to have the confidence to go into that kind of a packed paint. And I think I think it’s fine for him to like wait until the roster is thinned out and he has more room to operate coming out, you know, coming out of closeouts, right? Like which is why I I bring up the LaMarcus Aldress thing. LaMarcus was given those looks later on into his career, right? Like his prime was like what was he 25 when he first started getting really forcefed the ball, right? And like that’s kind of what I would see with Jabari. Like I I I don’t I don’t see at least these next couple years like yeah, he may he may get better at attacking closeouts. He may do more than just do the pull-up mid-range Jay, but that’s kind of what I expect from him right now. If and if he does more, okay, great. But like right now, Rockets don’t need it. He doesn’t really want to do it. The paint’s going to be too crowded for him to do it at a good level. So, it’s not gonna be It’s not going to happen that much. That’s what I’m trying. That’s what I would I guess. What are you looking for from Tar Een? Um I wonder what Tar E’s looking for over Tari E because he he is the most interesting Twitter follow. Did you see what he tweeted the other day about being an eighth man? No, I did not. Right. somebody uh I he either he was responding to someone saying he’s like gonna be an eighth man next year or something or like he thought like he heard it from somewhere but he was like upset at the notion of like him being an eighth man. It’s like okay okay Tar so like like what what like what’s what’s the what’s the role for you like you want to be a seventh man a sixth man like like you think you’re going to start next year like like what what do you see for yourself Tar E? Um, uh, I think what what I what I’m looking forward for what what I’m looking forward to with Tar East is kind of more of the same, right? Like more of like like him being a tenacious chaotic defender. I don’t think like I think a lot of people look at Tari as like he’s like an elite like discipline textbook defense. He’s not that, right? like he’s he reminds me and you know it’s not a perfect comparison but like Robert Coington kind of vibes a little bit right like I I like him more as like a weak side defender and I like him more like like when I saw him on the perimeter against guys on Golden State like okay like I he’s not equipped to do this right like he’s or like he’s not there yet right we’ll see if he ever gets there yet but like you know I think he is very um tal He’s obviously very um talented. He’s very long and athletic and crazy and like like I I I I think he’s he’s a he’s a mystery he’s a mystery box because like the the analytics love Tar, right? The anal the analytics love Tar. Even coming out of college, the Rockets love Tar like like Reed Shepard and Tar like those are the hills that they’re willing to die on, right? So, I don’t know what what they see for him. Like, maybe they see more of like him becoming a guy like not not when I mean not by a guy, I mean not like a rotation level guy. I mean like more than that. I don’t know. I don’t quite see that for him right now. We’ll just He’s a mystery box to me. Like I I I guess if you ask me what am I looking forward to? More the same. He’s still he’s going to get a lot of not a lot of deflections. He’s going to be super athletic, make a lot of hard dunks. Uh he’s gonna be very exciting for Rockets fans, crashed offensive glass, all that. What beyond that, we’ll see. I do think that for him, and by the way, you’re right that he’s a chaos agent. What I’ve always appreciated with him and like sometimes there can be like these stretches of being too foul happy, but like his permanent foul rate would be so much higher for the way that he defends. Yeah. Um, and I would losing Dylan Brooks, I think, is a little bit of a bummer in the sense that, okay, now it has to be, but getting Dorian Finny Smith offsets this is you don’t trust Ty East, and you mentioned this, to be the one-on-one guy that like as much. And so now you do have Aman Thompson who could do that, and you also have Dorian Finny Smith. So, you’ve backs stopped him, and in the dual big lineups, he can take as many chances as he pleases. I’m just wondering if when you maybe look at I think you see this more maybe on offense. Um, do you have a better chance of him playing with continuing to play within himself if his extension is just done and he doesn’t have to think about that? I feel like I’ll say this about myself, but I think collectively we might underrate how like people going into a contract year that aren’t necessarily assured of any certain type of payday where they’re not a star. They’re not even like a marquee name. Um, so if they hammer out an extension with him, that almost might be better than like, oh, let’s see what he still has and we’ll figure out what we’ll pay him when he gets to restricted free agency. Yeah, maybe. Yeah, I I that’s that’s possible. Like the the contract stuff may be in his head a little bit, right? And I think that’s possible like uh that he slots in more to he’s more comfortable slotting into a role if he gets the contract, right? Um extension this summer, but as of now, I mean, I can just ask you, do you think there’s unexplored re real estate with Tar East offensively? Like I I I I’m not I’m not even saying there’s not. I I I I don’t know. There might be like more I mean like I don’t know what it means like to explore. I just don’t you’re not going to want to put the ball in his hands or maybe have him work in the short role. No, it’s Could he maybe do more driving? Would you like to see him get his three-point attempt rate above 4.7 per 36 minutes? Sure. But like it’s all play like I don’t think that Tory Een’s a feature. I don’t even think he could be, and some of this has been born from necessity, so I don’t mean to like call this player out, but I don’t even think he could be an OG Anobi on ball type of level player. I was going to I was actually going to suggest like like the most I ever saw for him from him was like can he be like Jeremy Grant, right? Like coming out of the draft was like that that’s like the most signing with bad teams so that he could operate in ISO a bunch more. Yeah. Like like like that’s the most I ever saw from him offensively. Like like I never saw like you know people like people are weird, right? Like they see measurements and they they make superficial comparisons, right? Oh, he has the same size hand as Kawaii. Is he going to like No. Like stop, right? Like that. That’s never been him, right? Like even at LSU, it’s never been him, right? Like that like that’s not that’s not what he that’s not what he’s going to be in the NBA. He’s probably not going to be that guy in the NBA. I never want to say never. with guys that are young, but like he’s pro no like I I think more like Jeremy Grant like a ceiling, but do I think he’s going to reach that ceiling here in Houston? Probably not. I mean I I don’t know. We’ll see. Like he he’s a mystery box to me. He’s so he is so farther down the rotation that he thinks he is. Um that that I mean like I he might be the eighth man. Like like it’s it’s not crazy to suggest he’s the eighth man. Wh why is he thinks why does he think it’s crazy? Well, yeah, you’re right. Just we’re going to get into the rotation in a second, so we’ll wait for that. Uh very quickly, what’s the number that you would pounce on extending him versus waiting? Like if it’s I’ll throw one out there. If it’s 22 million a year, are you waiting or pouncing? Was that a good number to throw out? No. No. I mean, that’s that I I think I’d probably What are the years? Four years. Let’s say four and 80. 4 and 88. Four and 80. I might do. Yeah, for 480 I might do, but that’s probably like like the top end. I I definitely I would go higher if you if you trust that he could stay healthy. I go higher for one reason. I think there would be a team if you needed to move that contract, you’re trying to make another trade, they would look at him as unexplored real estate on the offensive end and talk themselves into being get this this B+ to A minus level defender who we think can do a little bit more on the offensive end. And so I think as long as you’re at like 25 million a year or under, I think that deal so long as he stays healthy would always be viewed as a net positive. And maybe maybe the unexplored real estate is defensively, right? Like maybe he can become like you know you and I are kind of talking about him as like the same level of defender like like B+ A minus level, right? Maybe he becomes a A+, right? He he hasn’t he has not shown the level of discipline yet to be that guy. He’s again he’s been more so chaos agent, but like maybe that’s the unexplored real estate that he should aim to explore, right? It’s not I’m not I don’t want to talk disparaging about Tares. It’s not like he’s chunking up shots or anything, right? It’s not like he’s right when he plays he’s not trying to be that guy, but he’s that that that tweet just stuck out to me. It’s like, okay, dude, like what what’s going on here? Like like do we need to stop and like re like assess this really good? So does Emma Udoka need to sit you down and like really talk about what this is next year? Like cuz like the starting lineup is the starting lineup, he’s probably not going to be it. Off the bench, you know, he may be the sixth man, right? Like that fair, but like saying if you’re the sixth man and someone says you’re the eighth man, that shouldn’t be like you shouldn’t be like offended by it, right? You shouldn’t be like, “Oh, right.” Like like I maybe like I don’t know. No, you’re right. You’re right. So I want to ask you this, and this actually dovetales nicely with what you kind of mentioned with Tar Een. When you look at, it’s not just about Kevin Durant. I think it’s just about how deep this team is in general. Do you look at any one player and have a concern or worry about either them not fitting in as well or perhaps getting lost in the shuffle relative to how deep they are? So, Cam would have been the obvious answer before he got traded, right? It would have been obviously Cam. I think the obvious answer this year is there I’ll throw it out there. Is there a chance if it’s if they still have to be maybe hyper foc focused, excuse me, on the offensive end, is there a chance that it’s like Trey E a little bit to where he’s never going to vacate the rotation, but if you want him playing noticeably over, I don’t know, what was he at last year? He did 1420 minutes, which was what per game for him. He was at 24.9. Like is there a chance that those especially with Dorian Finny Smith there if he becomes a little bit more of a three-point if he proves to be the more consistent three-point shooter? Does does Tari have to deal with like 20 minutes a game or something like that? Yeah, I think DFS is a uh is like he’s going to take he’s going to eat into his minutes, right? And I I also think like you know there are guys who are just not going to play night though. Do we count those as as like is Jan Tate lost in the shuffle guy? I mean first of all shame on the rest of the league for letting the Rockets get Jan Tate back at the minimum is all I’ll say. But Josh Kogi, right? Yeah. I mean, yeah, like those I meant like like even would be pushing it. Yeah. Even just you could say Clint Capella, but that would feel like a cop out too. It’s like Okay. Yeah. Uh who’s going to get lost in the rotation? I would say saying they will. Is there just who has the potential to be? Yeah, you’re right. Um so last year, Jabari kind of got got a little bit lost, right? And that’s might be a good a good place to look. I would also say um there’s a lot more competition at his position. So if I’m tempted to say that someone gets lost the rotation, I would say it’s probably one of the wings, right? So it may be Jabari or Tari, right? It may be uh someone uh from the center rotation, but I don’t think you know Clink Capella, as you said, we can’t really define that as lost in the rotation. So, I I think it’s probably more like someone from that wing rotation that gets lost rotate in in the shuffle. Uh Reed Shepard, I just think there’s going to be such a big wanting to him like want for him to fill that role. So, I don’t think he’s going to get lost. More like he may not play up to it like that, but that’s not lost, right? So I would say well I think he would he would be a fair answer because like if it doesn’t you could still have confidence in him moving forward but like they have set up this team to where they think that Reed Shepard can and will play some type of prominent reserve role and if he can if he winds up getting lost in the shuffle because either he’s not ready or not playing well enough I won’t predict it because you know what my brand is by this point but I think he if you wanted to give him as the answer I think that that’s a totally reasonable answer. No, I I I I think you’re right then. Atari is probably a good name, though. Like I I think I’m I I I have more confidence in Reed being a rotation player. So, I would probably say like Tari, like Tatari is probably the guy I would probably especially since like he hasn’t got his extension yet. There are more question marks about his role than everybody else. Like Jabari is locked in stone for five years. Like we the the team is invested in him, right? Like I I guess I guess Tari, but like you know I think I it’s going to be hard not to use him, right? It’s going to be hard not to use what he is is different than Dorian Smith. He’s much more freakish and athletic and chaotic than Dorian Smith and like that is something that the Rockets want to use. So yeah, but if I had to pick one, if I can’t pick the guys who were, you know, I can’t pick Josh Ki who the 14 man. Yeah. If I can’t pick Aaron Holiday, if I can’t, you know, if I can’t pick those guys, right, then I’m going to pick uh someone from the rotation, I guess it would be Tari. Are you ready to enter the cookie cutter portion of the podcast? What do you think the 10-man rotation ends up being? Doesn’t have to be in order, but just like the 10 guys that you would have locked into stone on a nightly basis. I think you have to include Kevin Durant there. Uh that’s just me personally. Other people may not, you know, controversial. Let’s spend a few minutes unpacking that. Yeah. Uh no. Uh KD, Amen, Shenun, Van Vleet, um Jabari, that’s the five I would say off the bench. Uh Reed, Dorian, Finny, Smith, Tari, um yeah, that Steven Adams I would say is probably going to be in their regular rotation when he’s available. And that ninth guy, it’s interesting. um you know that h I would guess that’s probably going to be taken by one of the three but when I say one of the three I mean a kogi Tate or Holiday like and that’s going to be kind of a rotating depending on what they need that night. So Clint Capella would be on the outskirts then. Yeah I think but but he plays when Adams is doesn’t play. Yeah I would say yeah. Yeah. Do you think that there’s any chance that they’re tempted I there’s I’ll say double center like do you think there’s any chance that Stephen Adams becomes a default for the starting lineup or do you think it’ll be Jabari Shangun KD uh he should he certainly he certainly shouldn’t that that’s that’s uh that would be crazy for him to to start um I don’t it’s just my opinion I think that’d be crazy it’s an interesting look great like use as a look I don’t that that’s not the starting lineup um but yeah Um, no. I don’t I don’t think you should. What do you think is going to be I know this is to some extent matchup dependent, but their mostused closing lineup. A lot of teams would pencil in their starting five, but I’ve seen a lot of talk. I think some people believe that Dorian Smith could maybe wind up closing games over a Jabari or maybe you’re throwing Tar East in there. But do you or do you think it will just be the starting five closing most of the games? It it feels weird to say I’m nostalgic for the days where you can put in like five shooters or like one non like but like it would be nice to see like like a lineup with Jabari at center uh and like and like everybody else is a wing, right? Pretty much like I think that would be nice. But I think what you’re most likely going to see is Van Vleet’s going to close. Kevin Durant’s going to close. I think Chevh Shenun’s going to close. I think Amen is going to close. So really that fourth spot like Jabari is probably someone um is probably the most likely fifth starter, but you could see Tari, you could see um someone else in that like Dorian Finny Smith. Like I think that’s pro the four are locked in. I think the fifth is probably more interchangeable, but I would say the starting lineup is probably a closing lineup. Is there a weird or funky lineup that you want to see Mayoka try this? Yeah, let’s go three bigs. Uh no, I’m kidding. Uh let’s see. Why stop there? Yeah. Yeah. Bring Brondale back. Uh let’s see. I would say I would say probably I would like to see a lineup without Van Vleet and Shangun and like four wings and and Jabari at center to be honest, right? Like I I would like to see a Jabari at center lineup um next season. And I guess I guess you can have Vanmple play in that. That’s fine. But like I guess I would like to see a lineup where it’s just Jabari at center and um four wings or a lineup where it’s a men at center and no not a man at center, excuse me, Shenun at center and like no amen, right? So it’s like all shooting, right? Where you’re not you seldom get that with the Rockets. There’s always like two non-shooters. I would like to see one non-shooter. It’s funny because the Rockets is weirdo lineup would probably be more like a default lineup structure for other teams the way that the Rockets play now. I want to see Reed Shepard with a bunch of like they’re wings but they’re also basically big. So give me DFS, Jabari, Ahmed Thompson and I think Een over Kevin Durant. Like let’s make this weird and then let’s put Reed Shepard in there and you know that he’s going to have the keys to that offense. And so that’s what I want to see. Yeah, this will be interesting to see more KD at the four, right? Like I I think that that’s something they could do. I mean, God knows what they plan on doing with with with is he going to be a three full-time like because of the the roster makeup. Is he going to be is he going to have an opportunity to play four? If he plays four, who’s playing five, right? Like that’s going to be that’s going to be interesting to see. Like I think definitely like seeing one of the two young studs with spacing is definitely where I lean. That’s where my heart’s at, right? I’d like to see a lineup with Amen and shooting or ShenGun and shooting. We just seldom get it and I would like to see it. The So in theory, the five big lineup I would call it would be like without actually having centers would be Adams, Shangun, Thompson, E, and DFS, right? Like that would be the closest to Oh, that’s a realistic just five big lineup because none of DFS is the best or E. They’re not like caps lock shooters and they kind of just E specifically can defend and rebound like a big too. So maybe that’s four bigs plus Dorian Finey Smith basically at that point. Give him Thompson the keys. I’ll take that lineup too. And I don’t know about you like I still like I view DFS as kind of like a he’s a better defender of wings and more specifically forwards than I would say guards nowadays. Uh like you know he it’s not like he can’t guard guards, right? But like I think I’m more comfortable with him guarding bigger forwards, right? Like I think that’s kind of like what I’ve seen him do more like better over the years in Dallas. He was a very good guy who can do jack of all trades. I’m not sure if I want him doing all that or now, right? I want to see him do more PJ Tucker type stuff now, right? Like I think that’s kind of where I feel more comfortable with him. So yeah, I’ I’ I’d say um I’ I’d say that’s five bigs, though. I I would say I would say that’s like Yeah. Personally, I would label them like five bigs. Let’s see that lineup then. So, before we get into predictions, is there anything else that I haven’t asked you about or we haven’t touched upon that you think needs to be discussed? No, I I I want to hear what I want to hear what you’re going to ask me for the predictions, though. Okay. Well, let’s make this very straightforward. How many games is this team winning in the regular season? And where do you see them landing in the Western Conference standings? 58 wins. That’s high. It’s high. I I I feel like they’re going to I feel like they’re going to get there, though. Um, where in the Western Conference standings I want to cheat and change my answer to 59 wins and say they’re going to be the second seed, but I I I I’ll say 58 and third seed, but like I [ __ ] 58 games is the third seed in the West. That’s insane. I think it’s going to be a little bit more spread out this year. I really do. Uh, so I would say yeah, that’s where that’s where I’m at. Well, you think it’s going to be spread out? Is 58 wins the third seed really? Oh, spread out between the top like like I like Yeah, I’m I’m more saying I I think I think the Thunder are going to share the wealth a little bit this year with the wins. I just I just think they’re going to be they’re going to be like a a lower 60 win team. Not not a not like they’re not going to be a 50 win team. I don’t think I suspect they’re still going to be the 60s, but I think they’re going to be like a 62, you know, win team. And I think that opens the room for like Denver and Houston to be like right there on their tails a little bit. Uh, so I guess 58 58 to 60 is kind of if if a range of wins, 58 to 62 is what I have Houston at. Um, in terms of seating, two to four. And I only say four because injuries. Four feels like their floor because what’s interesting about your win total, I haven’t done mine yet, but I’m asking I’m now asking you for wins before giving our guest the overunder. They’re 55 and a half. So you did go over. No, I I saw that. Yeah, I thought that was low. I I would jump on that. I I think what’s interesting about that is there’s really as of right now, it depends on what Reed Shepard looks like, Shangon looks like. It feels like they can navigate an injury for like 20 to 30 games to literally anyone except maybe Fred Van Fleet and maybe even that’s overstating his importance. That’s why your win total specifically or even saying their floor is the fourth seed. I think that’s accurate. Yeah, I think their their depth is going to carry them. That’s why I have them with so many like I I think like you know you can talk about them as a playoff team or whatever but like I think in the regular season they’re going to be so awesome because they can just fill in gaps easy. Now is there any contender you can take it whichever way you want that you think they match up particularly well against relative to consensus or maybe even one that you’re more worried about how they match up with relative to consensus. One that I’m I may be worried about relative to consensus I guess uh would be I it pains me to say because I’m not I’m really not a believer in them. So it’s just this is more like their matchup with Houston Minnesota uh because like I think they have a lot of size. I think they um like you know they have on the perimeter the the Rockets have guys, right? The Rockets like like a men’s going to be like their new lockdown guy, right? But like they have enough to be worried about where like okay like that’s some that’s something I would be slightly worried. I still I would still pick Houston to be to be clear. I would still pick Houston against the consensus who I think they’re going to be better against. I mean I mean is it cliche to just say the Thunder? I mean, I think they’re gonna be better than the better uh against the Thunder than people would suspect with and you know, if the Thunder’s offense can still bog down at points, yeah, that would be a that would certainly be a matchup. I’m interested. I don’t have a strong opinion on it to see how they match up with against Denver and like what is Denver when Houston rolls out its staple lineups? Like what is Denver’s staple lineup going to be? Is it going to be the one we just all assume or will they try and make a little bit more counters? Because Houston feels like the typical team, might be the team in the West, maybe more so than anybody, including the Thunder, that would force other teams to make lineup adjustments that maybe they wouldn’t in other instances. That might be hyperbole, but it’s at least close to being true. No, it because of the it’s it’s not necessarily because they have a player per se that’s forcing it. It’s it’s the roster makeup that’s forcing it. Right. like like Harden forced teams to like really adjust the way they guard him and like like the Utah Jazz did this weird like guarding like they they forced him one way and they let him go like left all game. I mean they let him go right all game like that that was that was weird or they defended him from behind that one time like that was strange. um they don’t have a player like that, right, that’s forcing that. But like, right, I think because they’re so big and they like they have so much forward depth, they may force teams to go up. Like I think Golden State can’t play normal Golden State basketball against, right? They’re so tiny compared to they have to scale up as much as they can, right? As much as they can. Uh other teams, I would say the same thing, right? like like teams that are smaller on the smaller end, they really have to scale up. And like the Spurs, I would say, is going to be a team that I’m, you know, I should have I should have named this as a team I’m like a little worried about compared to content. Like I would I would be worried about a match up against the Spurs. I would be I would be worried about about match up against the Spurs for sure. I think he might be like a year or two early on that. I don’t too much. I I I think I think WBY is like I mean I’m not breaking any news. I He He is I don’t know how how you defend that. Like it’s it’s just like he he he does everything everything good everything well and he’s so big and like you have to throw a double team at him. Um you do but their spacing is still pretty shaky around him unless Dylan Harper and Fox andor Steph Castle are going to end up being lights out. So, I think that gives you as Houston specifically a lot of options is that you could throw bodies at him and maybe not worry about as many other guys punishing you. Maybe I’m maybe I’m like too not remembering what De’Arren Fox was like pre-injury like before he bowed out last season and they didn’t have a ton of time working together, but the Spurs feel like a year away from being a year away. Well, that’s also part of it. They have so many quick guards, right? And like Houston can defend probably like two quick guards competently well, right? a men and um I would say after that I would probably trust um DFS, right? Like as like the quick guard defender, right? Or I guess Van Vleet, but like Van Vleet’s like I wouldn’t trust him against quick size. Yeah. So yeah, I that’s that’s that’s what gives me the a lot of pause as well. Like it’s it’s there’s a lot of when there’s a lot of perimeter options, I I get nervous. Mr. Salman Ali one I think we should both pour one out because this was under 90 minutes which I don’t think we’ve ever done before but more more importantly can you tell our fine listeners and subscribers where they can find you and all the great work that you do at smonle NBA pretty much everywhere uh I you on on YouTube Red Nation Hoops is the is the podcast and on iTunes same thing. I will include the links to his social handles and his YouTube uh channel in the podcast and YouTube description. So, go check that out. Thank you so much for your time as always, man. This was great. And as you know by now, I’m going to be pestering you again to come back down the line. For sure. Thanks for having me on.
Dan is joined by Salman Ali (@salmanalinba) from @RedNationHoops to break down the outlook for the 2025-26 Houston Rockets. SUBSCRIBE TO RED NATION HOOPS HERE: https://www.youtube.com/@RedNationHoops. CHAPTERS BELOW.
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CHAPTERS⬇️
0:00 – INTRO
1:44 – Offseason impressions
10:46 – Integrating Kevin Durant into the offense
16:46 – The development of Reed Sheppard
23:36 – The Kevin Durant extension
27:27 – Double-center lineups
34:02 – Amen Thompson’s development
40:55 – Continued development of Alperen Sengun
45:14 – Jabari Smith Jr.’s development
52:21 – What’s next for Tari Eason?
1:00:32 – Will anyone get lost in the Rockets’ depth
1:04:35 – The 10-man rotation
1:06:18 – Best closing lineup
1:07:26 – Weirdo lineups we want to see
1:10:43 – Predictions!
#nba #houstonrockets #kevindurant #alperensengun #amenthompson
4 Comments
congratulations to me for keeping reed Sheppard talk to under 30 hrs 🤘
OMG, reed sheppard to attack the rim….?
You just image he is FVV 2.0.
He not good at 1V1.
He didn't has impeccable dribble skills.But he can pass, he can use pick and roll.
He can shooting.
He has quick hands in defense.
He is the most close to FVV in these player.
So, did U want to FVV attack to the rim?
Of cause not.. Reed sheppard should pick and roll with teammates to let the teammates wake up.
IMO the lookaheads are Hardwood Knocks best content.
No other podcast has a full episode on every NBA team with this quality of guests and research and readiness for each episode 💙💚💙
That was Eason's mom upset with 8th-man comment!! Not Eason himself.