Everyone HATES The De’Aaron Fox Contract…

Everyone HATES The De’Aaron Fox Contract…

Dear Fox and the San Antonio Spurs just agreed on a new four-year, $229 million extension, and the reactions have been kind of overwhelmingly negative. I say that with a tone of surprise because when the Spurs traded for Fox, everyone loved the deal. The concept of trading for a still young, extremely talented all-star level guard to pair with Victor Webyama seemed like a no-brainer. And when they made the trade, this kind of contract was always going to be the next logical step. Now, obviously the difference between the trade and the contract is the cost. Fox essentially used his 2026 free agency to force the Kings to trade him to his preferred destination, the Spurs, which lowered the value Sacramento could expect in return. This was a pretty big moment within the NBA because although the Spurs have been an incredible franchise for the last 25 or so years, and they’ve had success on the trade and free agency markets before, I wouldn’t call them a destination team, and certainly not on the level of some of these bigger market teams around the league, and certainly not without Greg Papovic in place as head coach. But Fox still had the Spurs as his number one choice for one obvious reason, attaching himself to Victor Webbyama. This was the first time that we really saw this happen in Wemby’s young career. We’d heard whispers that other players were in awe of him and saw his immense potential as maybe the favorite to be the best basketball player in the world within a few seasons. But Fox listing the Spurs as his number one trade choice was the first time anyone had actually acted on it. All of which meant the Spurs got him for an absolute bargain. A couple of contracts and three first round picks, one of which was Charlotte and was unlikely to and ultimately did not convey. Then the Spurs own 2027 first round pick and the Timberwolves 2031 first that the Spurs got for moving down in the 2024 draft from Minnesota so they could move up and select Rob Dillingham. An unbelievably low price for a player of Fox’s caliber and age. But as I mentioned, there was a reason for that. Not only Fox establishing the Spurs as his team of choice, but also his 2026 unrestricted free agency, which is now obviously gone as a result of his new extension in San Antonio. And this is really the perfect example of how cost can impact how people see a player. Fox is just as good now as he was when the Spurs traded for him, a move that almost everyone loved. But while the trade was a bargain, the contract might not be. But of course, the contract is not the only thing that changed here. At the time the Spurs traded for Fox, they really needed guard help. Steph Castle was clearly good as a rookie, but doesn’t necessarily project as an all-star or all NBA level creator. and the other guard options just were not very good, which made the Fox trade make even more sense. However, of course, in the draft lottery, the Spurs ended up at the exact spot you would want to be if you needed guard help, second overall, which is where they ended up with Dylan Harper. Harper’s a fast and strong score first lefty guard out of Ruters that has already made a strong impression in San Antonio, which immediately threw a wrench into whatever plans the Spurs had long term in the back court. Now, don’t get me wrong, that’s not necessarily a bad thing. A trio of Fox, Castle, and Harper is incredibly talented. And just because Harper was the second pick and Castle was good as a rookie doesn’t automatically mean that they don’t need to pay Fox. But it does at the very least make the fit a little bit awkward between the three of them, especially with this new extension in place. Fox is more of a score first guard and isn’t a top tier floor spacer, which you could say the exact same about the projection of what Harper could be in the NBA. and Casso is more of a two-way complimentary option and again not a top tier floor spacer. Now to be clear, it’s way too early to just automatically assume that these guys do not fit together. But it is at least a little bit concerning now that the Spurs have committed such a big contract to Fox and also raises the question of whether or not they would have made the Fox trade if they knew they’d be getting Harper second overall. I mean, on one hand, that’s kind of silly because the Spurs had a great trade in place and then a few months later got really good lottery luck in a lottery in which most of the worst teams did not get good lottery luck at all. But in theory, I do think it’s natural to wonder if the Spurs have a little bit of regret trading for Fox. And if you were going to make that case, all you’d have to do is point to Fox’s stats post trade deadline with the Spurs. Comparing his numbers in the first part of the year with the Kings to what he did in San Antonio is certainly concerning. And that was even without someone like Harper making the guard rotation that much weirder. Most concerning is the three-point shooting because Fox is as dependent on being a threat from there as nearly any guard of his caliber in the league. I mean, when Darren Fox is hitting threes, he’s basically impossible to guard. But when he isn’t, he just is not as effective, which could be especially true on a Spurs team that already struggles a bit for spacing. However, there’s a couple of things to point out in that very small 17 game sample size in San Antonio for Fox. One, he was dealing with a hand injury from the moment that he got there and it was clearly bothering him. He was constantly messing with it during games and it was on his shooting hand and it was severe enough that he had offseason surgery to correct it. On top of that, Fox played just five games alongside Victor Womenyama before he was held out of the rest of the season for health reasons, leaving an extremely bare roster around Fox as the Spurs tanked towards the end of the season. So, I really don’t think you can learn almost anything from the 17 games Fox played with the Spurs for all the reasons I just mentioned. That won’t even be remotely close to the situation that he will be in when the season starts in October. And I certainly don’t think the Spurs are regretting the trade after just 17 games. It was such a good deal value-wise for them at a position of need and they already decided to sign him to a match contract when they made the trade in the first place. I really don’t think they’d go back and take the trade back even if they knew they were going to get Harper a few months later. But even outside of the specifics of his situation in San Antonio, plenty of people are making the case that this is just straight up a bad contract for a player of Fox’s caliber. And if you’re making that argument, the headline for your case would be, “The Spurs just paid over $55 million a year for a player in Fox that isn’t even a top 10 point guard in the NBA.” To me, that’s a bit of a stretch. Although admittedly, I’ve always been a bit higher than consensus on Fox over the years, but the argument can still make sense. If you trying to be as efficient as possible when building an NBA team, which is as important now as it’s ever been, Fox is exactly the kind of guy that you should not be giving out a max contract to. He has basically no playoff success, is a questionable fit on your roster, is tough to find good compliments to because he isn’t a great floor spacer, and isn’t a top five guy at his position, nor a top 15 player in the entire league. Not to mention the fact that the Spurs did not have to do this. They did not have to trade for Fox just because he said that he wanted to go there. The Spurs could have continued to be patient building around Wemby rather than give up assets in a max contract for Fox. For better or worse, they have attached the next few years of the Wemby era to a guy that has played seven total playoff games in his career at 27 years old. The initial cost of the trade might not have been that high, but it could be argued that the opportunity cost of choosing Fox as the first big move of the WBY era simply wasn’t worth it. And I can see that argument, but I have a few problems with it. One, this contract, in my opinion, doesn’t suddenly make the Aaron Fox untradeable at the level of value that the Spurs just traded for him. If things don’t go perfectly over the next two or so seasons, and Harper and Castle is now the back court of the future, I’m confident that the Spurs can get close to the level of value that they traded away for Fox back for him, even on the contract that he just signed. two. As I mentioned, I’ve generally been a bit higher than Fox on most, and I love the idea of the Spurs having a surplus of high upside guards to continue to grow together and the flexibility to trade any one of them at any time for an upgrade. And three, most importantly, this argument takes basically all of the context out of team building. In general, is this max contract a slight overpay given Fox’s place in the league hierarchy and amongst his peers at his position? Yes, probably. But the Spurs already made the choice to pay him when they traded for him. And it isn’t a gross overpay to me. And in terms of the opportunity cost, yes, that is technically true. The Spurs could have waited around another year or two before making a move like that. But that is assuming a lot of things. It’s assuming Fox won’t be a great fit with the Spurs. And it assumes that a long line of in their prime stars are going to be begging to come to San Antonio over the next few years. and that WBY will be healthy a few years from now, which is probably the biggest difference between me and other people when discussing the Spurs. To be clear, I hope WBY is healthy for 20 years and is awesome the entire time. But I am concerned about his durability long-term. His frame, his size, the history of the league tells us that guys like that have much shorter careers and primes than we want them to. And if I was the Spurs, I would want to accelerate my timeline around him to match a guy whose prime might start a year from now and be over five or six years from now rather than assuming that he will hit his prime at 25 and just play like that until he’s 35. And trading for Fox fits my idea of that timeline. You can assume a lot of things about the situation in San Antonio and play the whatif game if you’d like, but the Spurs had a guy in his prime at a position of need asking to go to their team and they had a chance to trade for him at below what his value should have been. And even if it comes at the cost of MX contract, that is still a no-brainer to me, especially because one of the worst things that could happen with the Fox situation is that Harper is so good that now I have to trade Fox, which I’m totally fine with. like, “Oh no, I have two really good guards and now I have to trade the older and more expensive one. What am I supposed to do?” That’s not really a problem. The only negative to me would be if having Fox around would limit Harper’s development. But I doubt that would be the case. And even if it was, I trust the Spurs to figure it out. Look, if you don’t like the contracts, I don’t blame you. I just don’t see it as the kind of catastrophe that some people were trying to make it out to

De’Aaron Fox and the San Antonio Spurs just agreed on a new 4 year, $229 million extension… and the reactions have been overwhelmingly… negative? I say that with a tone of surprise because when the Spurs traded for Fox, everyone loved the deal! The concept of trading for a still young extremely talented all-star level guard to pair with Victor Wembanyama seemed like a no brainer and when they made the trade – this kind of contract was always going to be the next logical step.

#fox #deaaronfox #spurs