Oklahoma City Thunder: Navigating the Second Apron Ahead of the 2026-27 Season | Third Apron Podcast

Oklahoma City Thunder: Navigating the Second Apron Ahead of the 2026-27 Season | Third Apron Podcast

Hey everyone, welcome to another Third Apron podcast. I’m your host, Yosi Goslin, NBA Sourc analyst, and today I’m going to be talking about the Thunder. Didn’t get to talk about them earlier in the off season. And now we’re going to talk about them. Um, didn’t expect them to do a whole lot. And speaking with me today is, uh, Andrew Schle. He works for The Athletic and he has several Thunder podcasts. You could see the names in the bottom. Andrew, thanks for coming on. How are you doing today? Doing great. Not a lot going on in the NBA, just uh schedule drops and stuff like that. Um but doing great. Glad to be here. Um yeah, let’s let’s get into it. Yeah, Thunder finally getting some respect when it comes to the schedule making. A little more than a little more respect than normal looks like. That’s what that’s what winning an NBA title gets you, I guess. is you get you get prime time spots. They got they have two national TV games week one which is you know I know Thunder fans are excited about that. Yeah, I saw they’re playing is it the Thunder their the Pacers their first game or like one of the first ones? I would I have I mean I don’t know that the whole schedule yet. I would guess that that is the Pacers first game is against OKC. Um which is kind of sad honestly kind of sad. I mean, Thunder and Pacers, uh, week one prime time NBA, right? Yeah. All right. So, uh, usually I was doing these like more like a preview of the off season. And the thing is like I’m going to ask you like what did you if you expected the Thunder to do anything? And I think the answer was like a whole lot of nothing. And not that they didn’t do anything. They just did a bunch of retention. More in the sense that I didn’t expect them to do any free agent signings. They didn’t do a single one. They only have one addition to the roster, which was through the draft. They actually had to do more subtraction because they had too many roster spots to fill. So, they spent the offseason doing what I pretty much expected them to do. Just retain everybody that was uh important they’ll need in the uh subsequent seasons. Uh that started that went from the top, all their top guys, SGA, Jaylen Williams, uh Jayd Dub, I should specify, and Chad Holgrren because they also did the other Jaylen Williams, Jay Will, uh and even AJ Mitchell got a new deal. So, I guess the the the mo the only thing we could really dissect are these extensions, are these new contracts? So, is there anything about the way they went about their negotiations or deals that stuck out to you? I think everyone wondered, are they going to be able to get Chad and JDub to sacrifice anything? That was the the real question. And I think people when they thought about it, they thought about it as like number some number off of the max, you know, which they did in a more roundabout way in a in a less obvious way to people that are just observing this from afar. But the fact that they got Jaylen Williams to sign his deal where he’s not guaranteed to get the full 30% max that he could get the super max even though he just got all NBA. He was just on the all defense second team. Like he could have easily said like I want all of it. Like let me have all of it. Let me get the chance to make the AllNBA team again. Um, but he did like this like sliding scale uh depending on like what his achievements are. Have you seen that before, by the way? Yes, it’s been not as common as most teams should be doing it, but it has been practiced. I know I think the one that really uh was the most consequential was Pascal Seyakum got it in 2019 right after they won the championship. It was very similar. Uh not quite as similar as to like what Jaylen Williams got, but I remember Pascal Seakum and Ben Simmons. They got like it was like 26% third team, 27% second team, and I don’t think it was going to be 30% first team, but that one ended up like really working out for both those teams where yeah, okay, they didn’t get the full 30%, they got them slightly below. Uh especially with the Raptors, I think that worked out really well when Seakcom got like 26%. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, I think it makes sense for both parties. I mean, you want to keep this team as sustainable as possible while also recognizing that you have a guy who’s clearly the second best player on a championship team. They just won the whole thing. The guy did it on a bum wrist where he was having to manage that throughout the playoffs. That was a huge deal. And then Chad just saying like, “Yeah, I won’t I won’t have any way to get a higher salary was also pretty interesting. Um, it shows a commitment from both of them because they both have an agent that is good at getting what he wants, but it shows like a willingness to collaborate, which is something that I I asked Prey about when it came to like these the deals for guys like Kendrick Williams and Isaiah Joe and Aaron Wiggins in the past, like how did those deals come about? He talked a lot about collaboration when I asked him about that. Like it’s no one’s like demanding anything. It’s a like, hey, let’s sit down. Let’s figure out like what do you want? Like what what do you want out of this? And clearly there is like some willingness to give back to the team cuz there’s a chance that both those guys could qualify for the super max after this next season like that that could have happened. Um, and the fact that both of them were willing to collaborate, I think is a really good sign for the Thunder. Um, I also think and we’re going to talk about probably Isaiah Hartinstein and his contract situation later, but I think that getting Jay Will under contract as well. Um, he’s like 8 million this next year. It’s a little bit under that the next two years. Like that’s a really good deal for a guy that got a lot better. You know, he did not play a lot in the finals. He’s more he was more of a situational big man for them, but they used him a lot against the Nuggets. And so to have that guy continuing to develop, he’s only 23 years old. He he feels more like a finished product than a lot of the guys they have just because he has more of a simple game, but he’s become a much better shooter. And to get that guy locked up, I think was really important for them as well. So clearly they took care of everybody. They got Shay on his extension, which was going to be a no-brainer. this is the guy that won MVP, finals MVP, um, scoring champ, like everything you could ever want out of your player. And it’s like, yes, whatever you’d like, take it. And then to lock up two guys that are 23 and 24 that are both destined to be multi-time allstars. As long as Chad stays healthy, I think JDub is going to be a multi-time all-star. I think that’s you can almost deliver that already. But I think it’s it’s it’s how you’d hope it would be. You know, the Thunder have been in this position before where they’ve had multiple stars. They had the James Harden deal that kind of fell apart for a host of reasons. Some of it financial, some of it was um just more role specific stuff with him. And I think that being able to just have this be no drama, you know, and to get everybody signed was the goal here. Uh which is easier said than done. Now, winning a title helps a lot. Um, but also you could step back and say like, “Yeah, you won the title. You’re the second best player on the championship team. Jub, yeah, I would like everything, please. And why would you leave anything out?” Uh, I do think like that was really important business for them. So, as far as Jay Will, he just just kind of speaks to how deep the Thunder were that he couldn’t really play that much. Even Isaiah Hardenstein really didn’t play as much as I think he should have. just uh like you said, situational uh rotation stuff and uh to lock in Jaylen Williams to this deal that they got him to. I think that’s a great deal because you can almost say that he was their uh free only free agent addition because if you looked at where they were heading into the off season, they had like you know some tax base. They could have used some of their mid-level exception and instead they uh you know they moved off that first round pick to save some money. They moved off Dylan Jones to save some more money and they use all that extra tax base to give Jaylen Williams a raise off his minimum salary. And it’s funny because usually, you know, I should be on top of this stuff. For some reason, I didn’t have on my cap sheets that Jay Will had a team option. I thought it was just like a non-G guarantee, which means that they wouldn’t have been able to decline it. And so, like, I just for some reason, I completely didn’t have that in my radar. So, when I saw that he extended, I’m like, “Oh, wow.” That’s an error on my part. Um, so like I think it just makes sense to get him on that deal. And same with AJ Mitchell. They just kind of kept the money flat, uh, slightly declining. So, that helps with their their goals about the tax and the aprons, which we’ll get into a little later. Uh, that’s more about long longevity, trying to extend their window. We’ll get into the details of that. But as far as the deals, yeah, I would agree with you that the ones that interest me the most are the Max ones. Uh, with SGA, I don’t think there’s too much to discuss other than I think he is starting to uh make a claim for best player agent. I think Joel Embiid has that title right now. Uh, so I I get the feeling Joel Embiid the agent might go down as better than Joel Embiid the player when it’s all said and done. For real. For real. But SGA to get basically everything. All I think like I don’t Is there anything he didn’t get in that contract? He got the player option, the full N player option. No, I mean I think that they they they gave him everything. I think he wanted everything and I think I mean it makes sense like if if he doesn’t get everything like who does? And so I I think it I think it made sense and it made sense why, you know, he like you said, player agent, like he didn’t didn’t have to sacrifice all that much on this deal and sets himself up to be he was already outrageously rich. Like let’s let’s be real. Like he’s making $38 million. It’s a lot of money, but to be where he’s at is crazy. Yeah, I’m looking at it. The only thing he didn’t get was a trade bonus, which it’s going to be it’s it’s unlikely he even gets that if he even were to somehow get traded cuz his salary is so high. Yeah. So, but also kind of shows Yeah. like you’re staying here. You’re not going anywhere. So, just good on him to get everything the the full money and all the bells and whistles. Uh, and then there’s the Ched and Jaylen dynamic where when I was first reported Ched Homegrren and the reporting was a little funky where it said that he would get the max and it could potentially be worth like 250 which made it seem like okay maybe he got a little bit of escalators that can put it to around 26%. And turns out that wasn’t the case. So then we the next I believe the next day we got Jay Dubs reporting and he got escalators that can get him up to the full max. So, I think the way the Thunder did it is honestly might should be I think the standard for most players, especially for like a really good second option that like a guy like, you know, we could debate whether JDub can be like a a great first option as on a different team, but given his role, I think this makes a lot of sense. And I and I kind of like to bring up the Pascal Seakum comparison. Not that I I would say right now I think JDub’s better than where Seakkum was at this stage in his career. But Jay So JDub got 26% 27% 30%. As in if he gets 30% he gets if he if he gets third team all NBA he gets 26%. If he gets second team all NBA gets 27%. And unlike Seakum, which I think and Simmons, which I think was like still under 30% if he got first team, JDub would get the full 30% if he gets first team. And I really like that because I think we’re starting now to see a lot of I don’t know if regrets the word, but I the past, you know, the early part of this decade, early 2020s to like even like especially 2022 when you had guys like Bradley Beal, Damen Lillard get the full 35% max. Those guys aren’t even finishing their deals now. uh Zack Lavine getting the full 30% max. I think we’re starting to see the downside of guys that aren’t perennial AllNBA players getting 30% or more of the of the cap. Um and even with players that are younger where they have a lot more upside like JDub’s going to get better and you can talk about the other guys who also got similar contracts like Ched and Powancero. Uh, I think this is a really this this structure makes sense and a lot more teams should follow it because I’ve been kind of thinking about what kind of changes I’d like to see in the next CBA. And I’m sure teams would like to push for maybe the elimination of the 35% max. But more so, I think teams are going to just be wiser about who gets the 30% max or more because I’m starting to feel that unless you’re like a perennial first teamer and like or at least you get like second team pretty consistently, I don’t feel like you should probably get the 30% max. Uh like like a lot of these guys are just not playing up to that value. So to give Jaylen uh you know just above the 25% max and I would expect that as long as he’s healthy and the Thunder are coasting to first place in the West that he probably will still make an allNBA team. You’re rewarding him, but you’re also not really like hurting the the Thunder’s future out cap outlook. If he’s 26 27% I think that’s really more it’s a significantly more manageable than 30%. Uh as to your point earlier you were talking about how JDub did get second team last year and that really doesn’t help him at all. Uh maybe there should be some change about that where he got as a second team which is like it’s not I think there’s a huge difference between third and second team and for him to get second team in his third year for him not for that not to really mean anything to his contract stuff. I maybe there should be something that gets modified about that. Um, but I I just really like how they structured it where you’re not just a lot of teams they just structured. Okay. You made third team for the first time like Cade uh you know if Po just gets third team. He was third team. Jacob was. Yeah. Oh, it was third team. Okay. Yeah. My mistake. Uh you know a lot of them most of the time is structured where if you even just get third team and you’re just in that one season you need to you get the full 30%. And I don’t think that makes as much sense. I like I love what the Thunder did this expect and this specific structure because if he gets first team next year, okay, give him the 30%. Like that’s like getting you can’t you can’t really fluke getting first team on NBA. Yeah, exactly. You think about the guys that made it. It’s like Giannis Joic Shay Donovan Mitchell who led the Cavs to the best record in the East and then Jason Tatum who was just coming off an NBA title. Yeah, if he’s good enough to to bounce one of those guys, obviously Tatum won’t be there this year, but we’re talking like Anthony Edwards, LeBron James, Evan Mobley, Jaylen Brunson, like those kind of guys like, yeah, he he deserves it and the Thunder will be lucky to pay him, you know, a 30%, you know, maximum extension because he’ll be he’ll be worth it. It’ll complicate things moving forward, but if he’s truly that good, you have to pay him. You have to try to keep them around as long as possible. Yeah. No, I agree. And I guess it’s time to then get into the meat of this where um I’m just pulling it up. The Thunder outlook because them trying to them navigating this luxury tax apron situation that they’re in. I f should first add that they’re actually like way more well equipped than any team could possibly be because of their surplus of of draft picks. uh and their willingness to spend. They’ve shown in the late teens during those Paul George years that they’re willing to spend a lot of money. They spent like they had like one of the highest tax bills at that time uh during that second Paul George year uh in history. So, here’s the Thunder cap sheet for next year. Now, it’s a little disingenuous because it’s got 17 players. Obviously, you can’t have 17 players. Obviously, we don’t know exactly what Jaylen Williams uh salary will fall out. Maybe it’ll be a little higher than this, but uh so that’s why that the tax payment is like super high right now. It’s not going to be quite this. It’s still going to be really high, but let’s just say they, you know, wanted to move off two picks. It kind of gets down to a little over 200 million, which is still a lot. Yeah. Um, so I want to do this exercise with you and I know it’s going to be tough because it’s basically like me asking you if you had to uh you know it’s like picking it’s like asking to choose who are your least favorite kids or something like that, right? where truly is uh the the the Thunder are going to have a choice to make where if they’re going to go into the season like this deep and I think the result of whatever happens this upcoming season will inform that not only will they be in the tax, they’re going to be well over the second apron. Um, and I don’t think they’re going to really have a problem about like, you know, have an issue about the payments necessarily or even that fro getting their future draft pick frozen. They have so many draft picks, it’s really not going to matter. Um, it’s more so about starting uh your your apron clock because they’re going to so they’re going to duck the tax this upcoming season which is in which would be like insane if they win a second championship without even having started their luxury tax clock. Yeah. Um, but the the apron clock is that if essentially if they’re going to be in the second apron for a third for three straight years, then they have their uh one of their frozen draft pick they dropped to the end of the first round. Now, if they’re if they win another championship in these next few years, it might not that might not matter as much to Thunder as it would for most teams because again, they have so many draft picks. But let’s say they wanted to at least just get below his second apron one more year. Uh which would be yeah this year 26 27. Um I’m curious to see how you would go about it because there’s a couple ways that can happen. When I first posted about how Chad and Jaylen’s extensions would uh impact their cap sheet, a lot of people in my replies, they speculated, okay, well, I guess that means goodbye Isaiah Hardenstein’s got that team option. Some people even said Lud Door because that’s like the quickest way they can get below the second apron declining those guys. Yeah, they could also try to decline him, try to give him smaller contracts. I don’t know how much of a discount you’d get with Hardenstein. I don’t think you’d be getting a discount at all with Dort, right? Um, but there’s a lot of I’m thinking more so more realistically if they do it’d be like working with they it’d be coming from the bottom, a combination of guys from the bottom. Obviously, they’re not going to have three draft picks. So, you know, one one way we could even already start is getting rid of these draft picks. So if they’re going to like try to shave 30 million I and I don’t know if you’ve given it much thought but like you and we don’t have to like get exactly to zero. Yeah. But where do you think you would start if you had to if this was an objective for the Thunder? I would probably start, and a lot of this will depend on how AJ Mitchell looks this year, but I think I would start with Isaiah Joe because AJ Mitchell could pretty easily slide into the minutes that Joe plays and he is a he’s not as good a shooter. He’s a much different player. And so it’s it’s not to say that he will just duplicate that role, but AJ is like a really good player that can play off ball, he can play on ball, he can play backup point, he can play really whatever you want. Isaiah Joe the last two years in the playoffs has really struggled to and it’s really it’s not even that he’s struggled to shoot the ball. You look at his percentages, they look pretty good. It’s just about getting attempts have just been really difficult for him and he’s probably their weakest link defensively. So, I think you could trade Isaiah Joe and get value back. He’s a great regular season player. He’s a guy that I think would play on all 30 teams in the NBA. And so, I think like that’s a guy you could go get a future protected first for him from somebody. um and he could go help out another team and then you just kind of slide whether it’s Topic that pops this year or if it’s AJ whoever it is like you you have guys that are kind of waiting in the wing there that are a lot less expensive. Um and like that’s probably where I would start when we’re talking about yes trying to shave this down. So, first I think there’s an easy one which is Kenrich Williams. And they could bring him back on a minimum because I understand he’s like their Udonis Hasslam allstar. They they want to have him. They want to have him no matter what. So, if you you could bring him back on a minimum, but so you’re probably saving about five fiveish million there. But yes, as far as like the act the rotation players go, the like the main guys, Isaiah Joe would be the guy. And it is 100% because they already have someone in line to take those minutes assuming and he’s already and it’s looking really really promising that that’s where things are going in AJ Mitchell and he’s going to be making just under $3 million in the 27 season and then another year after this. So yeah, I’m with you there where and then you can get some val you can probably get some value for Joe. I I could see a a team I don’t know. I don’t think there’s like first round pig value for him, but if you, you know, maybe they could get a swap, multiple seconds, something like that. So then you’re getting you’re getting pretty close. You’re getting pretty close there. Uh we’ve already removed uh so just to recap, we removed Kenrich. We’ve removed Joe, assuming Mitchell is fully ready to take over that spot, and I’m assuming that Thunder will have gotten out of multiple first round picks. Uh, the last one I think in the same vein that you’re talking about Joe, I think you could say some kind of similarly about Wiggins or Jay Will where okay, you’ve got Sorber, let’s say he is already like ready to be in the rotation. That’s one way you could do it. Yeah. Uh, Wiggins is the other one and I would imagine that’s where they would try to go for. The only thing is there’s not really any replacement quite ready there yet or but I they could I think that’s something they could figure out. Uh so that’s where I think we’re kind of already there where we kind of figure out how they can how they could do that. Like they could really start from the bottom up. I just would try to avoid moving off their top six for as long as possible now. Uh yeah, maybe and and maybe there’s a combination of other things they could do whether maybe there is the uh a way you can get him uh Isaiah Hardenstein back on a little less. Um I would say maybe there’s a possibility they’d move Caruso just because um this is going to be the last year 26 27 of Quesan Wallace on this deal. Yeah. And assuming they want to keep ex and extend Quesan Wallace, I would guess that that means that they probably wouldn’t have keep Caruso at this contract. So that’s just something to keep an eye on. Uh so that could be another way maybe they decide to move on from Caruso a little earlier. Uh but I kind of feel like they’ll want to keep if they would keep them if they can figure out something with these guys. Uh any thoughts on that? Yeah, I do think a a lot of this is you you’re going to wait and see. Like if Thomas Sorber is ready to play minutes and he’s pretty good, you know, and there’s a lot of people that really believe in him, that’s where you could be like, okay, like the combination of Jay Will and Sorber can play backup and we can really move back to the chich at the five, play five out, have these guys play backup center rather than having this jumbo lineup. And you know, they’re kind of their bread and butter is playing five out anyways. And so you could see them, you know, sliding Case and Wallace into the starting lineup, which they did a lot this past season. Um, a lot of this could also depend on what does Nikolo Topic look like? Like is this a guy that can play a lot of minutes in the NBA? Is he a guy that can hold up defensively? What does he look like with this team? Those are some big questions. Um, and AJ, like we talked about earlier, like how much of a role can he take? You know, there’s a lot of questions to be answered before we get to this point. Uh, but kind of back to the beginning, like the easiest way to get there and keep a lot of your depth is to trade Isaiah Hartenstein or to decline him. Um, and so I I do think that that is on the table and they’ve kind of set things up to where like that is probably the easiest option. And I know Isaiah really likes OKC. I know, you know, his dad is here with him. and his dad glows about OKC. And I think that it’s an organization that they they understand um that they like they get Isaiah like as far as like the kind of player that he is and how he can be used. And so I know that they really like that. Um and it’s also I mean like they’re going to have to have the conversation. I talked about collaboration earlier. There’s going to have to be a lot of that with guys that want to stick around because all these guys are going to be worth a lot and in order to keep this team together long term. Um, it’s going to take some collaboration from guys. You know, it took the 30 million to get Hartinstein here. If he wants to stick around, he’s going to have to take less. Like that’s just going to have to be a part of his story. Um, Caruso, I need to see another year because he was outrageously important to this Thunder title run. Like, they don’t they don’t get past Denver without him. I don’t think that they beat Indiana without him. I think that he’s a guy that they he’s the adults in the room in a lot of ways. He’s a guy that is like teaching these guys how to play in these big moments. And maybe they don’t need that in a couple years and they could move off of Caruso. I could see that being a possibility. Uh but I do think like he’s he’s so important um to just what they do. And so I have a harder time with that one. I do think the Hartinstein one makes some sense. Especially if Czech can prove that he that these two injuries that he had are just flukes and that he’s going to stay relatively healthy, then I think that you can feel more comfortable letting him be the full-time five. I mean, he played all 82 games the season prior playing starting center. And as he gets stronger, um, and as he just as you get older, you just you’re just going to have more mass. That’s just the way that it is. He’s never going to be like a big bulky guy, but I think that he can be their full-time center at some point, in which case you don’t really need Hartinstein. He Hartinstein is a starting center in the NBA. And so at one point, I just wonder if you move off of Hartinstein just because of that. And then you, you know, see what Sorber becomes. You see what Jay Will becomes. You know, like you can see, you can have those guys as backups. if you wanted to play the jumbo lineup, I think you’d have that option still on the table. Um, yeah, I think with Hardenstein, it’s going to be a little tricky when you look at the center center market. If for the Thunder, it’s not necessarily about the money, but getting him on what they consider a good market value for him, then I kind of feel like he might already be there. Yes, they overpaid to bring him in last year. But now a lot of centers, maybe not quite as good as him, but kind of in that sub allstar tier, they’re starting to catch up to his number. Guys like Jared Allen’s going to make what he’s making next year. Yaka Pearl just signed that big extension that’s going to push him there uh into that range. Um there might be a couple other ones I’m not thinking of. At the same time, you can point at like Ivita Zubots who’s going to be making around 20 year. Uh there’s so the range is a little all over the place. You got Nick Claxton who’s kind of in the middle. So I kind I would I don’t expect but I I think on one hand you could argue okay maybe guys like Purle Jer Allen maybe those won’t be positive value contracts in which case maybe you want to try to get Harden on on a little bit of a discount. I’m just not sure how big a discount we’re talking like I have a hard time seeing him get down to like what Zubots is making in like around 20 a year and I Hardenstein’s got uh this proven record. He’s got the championship glow on him. I think a lot of teams might be willing to pay a little bit of a premium. So, if the Thunder have a certain line on him, I think there’s a good chance other teams might be willing to cross it, especially if that means, you know, if you’re taking Hard and Scene away from the Thunder, maybe you’re hurting them a little bit. There’s also that dynamic in play where I think other teams would love to see Isaiah Harden sign not on the Thunder. Um, as far as Caruso, if if they’re going to if they have already reduced a lot of money elsewhere, especially with Hardenstein, if he’s not on the team, then I would guess that Caruso is going to stick around for the time being. I do feel though once at you get to the subsequent season, if they have extended Case Wallace, I would again, we’re going to have to see how things look like. There’s just too many whatifs. But to me, it feels like especially and especially if Dor is extended on a new deal, I have a hard time seeing them still keep Caruso even if they don’t have Hardenstein. Um, by then maybe what’s a what’s a good starting number for for Kase in your in your opinion? I don’t know. It’s that’s really tough to It’s really hard to evaluate some of these Thunder role players because we don’t for all we know maybe a guy like Kase would be doing a lot more uh production on a different team if he had a bigger role, but he he’s like what the fourth or fifth guard like he could maybe be like a third guard on a lot of other teams. Sure. So maybe there’s also that dynamic where not necessarily saying he wants he would want to leave the Thunder for a bigger role, but maybe he’d want to test the market because maybe there are other teams that could that would be willing to pay him more than the Thunder might be because they it would mean he would get a bigger role uh to justify it. Um, but if Ka let’s if Kase let’s say he doesn’t let’s say he just I’m not gonna say he gets on the level of Caruso that’s like Caruso is one of like if not the best point of attack defender he’s up there but let’s say Kase gets to a point where he’s getting uh strong consideration for all defense by the time his contract’s up. So if in over the next years he’s at that type of level then I think you might if you’re at Thunder maybe you are feeling a little more comfortable about the idea hey maybe we should move on from Kuso uh he’s like deceptive he’s a little older than you might think he’s like deceptively older I yeah then you so maybe there you can try to get ahead of a potential decline um I I don’t think there’s anything wrong with having like they’ve proven this year to have too many of these types of players But once it actually comes time to pay Kase, it if if he does get to that level I’m talking about, then as a percentage of the cap, I guess you’re looking at paying him at least what Caruso is making, which two years from now is going to be slightly more than whatever Caruso is getting right now, that 20 million a year. It’s it’ll probably be a little higher than that. In which case, I think it’s going to be really hard to justify having both of them plus Dor plus their big three. uh you probably still need to make room to paying some other big men because uh Jaylen Williams, he’ll have his team option coming up by then. Um if you’re not having if you don’t have Hardenstein, you’re still going to I think you’ll still need another big man. Uh so the money still needs to go elsewhere. So it’s a lot. Look, these are all good problems to have, but when we’re starting to look ahead and see where the Thunder might start to pick away from their depth, uh we pretty much are in agreement as far as like the Joe uh Mitchell dynamic. Um I think in the same way Caruso and Kasein might also be similarly uh intertwined. So, we’ll see. We’ll see what happens there. Yeah, I think that makes sense. And then you just don’t know like who who do they get in the draft next year? I think is a big question too. Like does this does Philly is Philly just not any good next year and they get like the 10th pick or something like that? Like that that could happen. You know, they also drafted Brooks Barnheiser and he’s on a two-way and he’s somebody that I think the Thunder really like and they like his potential as a guy that can play a similar style to Caruso, just like an all energy type of guard. He’s a little bigger than Caruso, too. Um, so like there’s just a lot of development and a lot of things to happen and it’s like somebody’s probably going to pop between Sorber and Topic and AJ and Barnheiser and whoever they get in the draft next year. Like so like one of those guys is probably going to pop in a way that’s significant. And if they do, then it will make these these difficult decisions a little bit easier for them financially. And I think that’s part of what they’re trying to do is like we’re just going to throw a ton of darts at the board. One of them is going to hit and then it’ll make it easier to continue this era of Thunder basketball. With the Thunder’s excess draft picks, it’s not so much that they’re increasing their chance at trying to get like a top four pick or anything like that. Like even if the Sixers struggle again, I think that pick is still top four protected this year. So it can’t go that high. Uh but I am starting to wonder I projected it at 17 uh after free agency just you know I made project I just like to do projections for each team. Sure maybe that Philly pick though might be coming in a little higher with some of the uncertainty around them beat already to u in the off season. But it it’s so fascinating how the Thunder had the 15th pick in this year’s draft. Uh they had the what was it 13th pick the year before for Top Pitch? Something like that. 12th pick. Yep. They are getting pretty high draft picks for the level of team that they are. And even if they only hit on one of them every other year, and chances are they’re going to hit on someone because they also have they’ll either get a second round pick. Also, maybe they they just happen to pluck somebody out of out of that wasn’t drafted. Like they’re going to hit on in some regard. And they’re just like I I think like as long as they get let’s say they have three total draft picks, I would expect they’re going to hit on one of them. One of these guys are going to be a rotation player, in which case you’re able to recycle their depth because the most important thing is keeping their big three and keeping maybe not all like the mid-tier guys, but like some level of it and then being able to recycle these guys. Just a reality. It doesn’t sound nice, but as they start to navigate the these luxury this heavy taxes, apron levels, this is the luxury they have that they can uh find new guys in this, you know, these like eighth, ninth guys because the fact that they’re paying Wiggins and Williams and Joe as much as they are now, most teams cannot do that. That’s mostly the result of them having such a low payroll right now where SGA’s still got two years left making around like 40 million a year is a big part of that. But once the all these guys start to get paid uh into like the 30% plus range uh whatever you know whatever the end ends up being for Jaylen uh that’s where these draft picks are really going to come into uh where they’re really going to matter the most. So a lot of people have been wondering well why don’t they just cash in their picks on a Giannis or whoever it is. No, this is more so the the reality of what these draft picks are for, which Yep. Uh this is really important now. Most teams you need to have like six if seven if you’re lucky, like guys you could count on in the playoffs, but if you can have an eighth, n10th guy as well, that can really go a long way. So the Thunder will always be like they should always be like eight to nine deep. Um, but it just, you know, for those wonder like kind of dooming about who that they’re gonna have to lose some of these guys. Yes, they are. But most likely they’re going to find players that you’re going to you’re going to love just as much. Yeah. Yeah. Without a doubt. And like the Wiggins contract too, like Wiggins is a guy that could stick around long term. You know, he’s only making 8 million in 2829. Like that that could be one of the more valuable contracts if he continues to develop. and become like a reliable six-man type of guy, which he was more of that for them this past year. And so, it really is like wait and see. I don’t think any path is determined for them. And there’s like not one path that they can take as we kind of have discussed here. Like there are a lot of ways to get to where they need to go. And I think that’s the way that Sam and his people have set it up to where like, yeah, we can we have to take a look at these like eight different paths that we can take to to, you know, save money and to keep this team sustainable. I think that’s something that they want. And like Sam has seen it too. He worked for San Antonio and you go look at their CA supporting cast, it changed, you know, through time. Like they won multiple championships, but it was the same core but with different players surrounding them. And I think it’ll be the same for the Thunder. I think that this iteration will always be beloved because they were the first to get a championship here in OKC. But when they’re competing in four or five years, if they’re lucky enough to be competing at the same level, the cast will look different. You know, there’ll be some holdovers from this team, but for the most part, it’s going to look different. Yeah. And when we talk about this level of spending, I’m just talking about next year about that. We’re just saying, well, why don’t they just try to duck the apron, the second apron, just one more year after that? I think they’re going to just assuming that they’re still playing at a competing at a high level. They they could just blast through it for a couple years. like they can pay a lot of tax, go over the second apron, so they can end up going through their second year above the second apron by the end of 2028. Am I am I doing that correctly? So, 26 under the tax. Yeah. So, and then maybe they want to consider taking a step back after if they really uh don’t want to have their draft pick fall to the end of the first round. Sure. But if again like if they might be immune to that because they have all these extra picks, like do they are they really going to be that concerned about having their draft pick in 2036 or whatever follow if they still have like 10 extras? Maybe not. As long as the results justify it, then it might not a lot of the discussion we might we just have might not even might not matter too much. Yeah. Yeah. Ex. Yeah. Exactly. And again, yeah, it’s a waiting game for them. Like, we really just don’t know. Like, there’s so much that we don’t know. There’s so much to unfold here um with this team, with this franchise that, you know, you can’t really see that far into the future. But the thing that they do know is that they’ve locked up their three best players. Like, that was like the most important, you know, piece of business for them this summer and perhaps like the most important piece of business for them for the next like four or five years. Yeah, I expect that they should be competing for championship at least through the end of the decade. Yeah, like through 2030, maybe a little longer. And at that point, it’s not even so much for like a decline, more so, okay, how where are they in relation to these apron restrictions? Where are they in relation to the repeater tax? How much have they spent? Uh those kind of dynamics might start to settle in more, but until then, Thunderfan just enjoyed the ride. Uh, Andrew, thank you for joining me on this show talking about the Thunder. Uh, thanks for making your Third Apron debut. Tell the good people where they could find you. Yeah, go check out the Athletic NBA Daily. We’re kind of on a little bit of a hiatus right now. We have the the Basketball 100 podcast that’s on that feed right now where we’re counting down the top 100 players in NBA history. It’s a fun kind of break from our normal show, but uh, if you will subscribe to that, that would be amazing. uh Alex Spears and I who do Down to Dunk together, which is a Thunder podcast. Uh we still do Slam and Jam, so we’re going to be breaking down the schedule after it comes out on Thursday. Um but yeah, Down to Dunk. Uh if you’re a super crazy Thunder fan and you haven’t heard of our um Patreon show, the OKC Dream Team. You can check it out, patreon.comcdream Team. Uh where we have a ton of Thunder content all the time. So, uh, yeah, appreciate you having me. And make sure to follow Andrew on Twitter and Blue Sky at his name, Andrew K. Schlect. And make sure to follow me on Twitter and Blue Sky as well. My name Yosi Goslin. And everyone, thank you for listening. Make sure you subscribe to Third Apron wherever you get your podcast. And the newsletter as well on Substack. I’ve been pretty active there, writing a lot about a lot of teams and their future outlooks. Lakers, Clipp, uh, Celtics, Knicks. uh just wrote about the Giannis trade market even though we don’t it doesn’t seem like he’s going to get traded. Uh kind of just I wanted to take a look at the landscape after free agency. Things have kind of changed so see who could actually still make a a big deal for him now and I’ll be pretty active there in the coming months even though uh free agency is pretty much over. So, thanks for watching everyone and I’ll see you

Andrew Schlecht of Down to Dunk and OKC Dream Team podcast joins the show to discuss the Thunder’s offseason and how we could see them trimming down the 2026-27 roster if they want to avoid the second apron one more year.

Thunder offseason preview: https://www.thirdapron.com/p/how-the-league-let-the-oklahoma-city

You can follow Andrew on:
Twitter: https://x.com/AndrewKSchlecht
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