My BEST/WORST NBA preseason takes: Thunder & Spurs dominance, Luka & Reaves duo, Nuggets success
Jason revisits his preseason predictions and hot takes to determine five that he got right and five that he got wrong. He discusses the Los Angeles Lakers duo of Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves, his OKC Thunder vs. Denver Nuggets prediction, why he was too low on Victor Wembanyama and the San Antonio Spurs, and much more.
All lines provided by @hardrockbet
Timeline:
0:00 – Start
1:00 – Wrong take 1
9:00 – Right take 1
13:51 – Wrong take 2
16:47 – Right take 2
21:00 – Wrong take 3
24:17 – Right take 3
28:18 – Wrong take 4
31:30 – Right take 4
33:20 – Wrong take 5
38:05 – Right take 5
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45 Comments
Chris Paul to Houston. Or tyus jones
Great episode! Really appreciate you explaining what you were right and wrong about
Great Episode. Chet's three point percentage is actually up this year, not down.
I would not say that Denver take is wrong until we get eliminated from the playoffs. Our offense is the best in NBA history so far and our defensive is better than last year and our bench is WAY better than last year. OKC is marginally better than us but in a series, it’s a pick em. 7 game war could go either way
Mailbag: Hey Jason, so I've been a big fan for a couple of years and just wanted to thank you for all the great content you put out; I also believe believe that the Lakers should trade AR right now while his value is this high; I don't believe he has the toughness to get through the post-season and get to the finals, as he demonstrated all this year when facing more athletic teams and in the Minnesota series during the last playoff run. My question is do you think that they should trade him for someone with more elite athleticism abilities or do you think that AR/Luka duo will prove to work when it comes to the post-season?
OKC is head and shoulders above everyone, best team and best player all on the same roster is wild
Lakers are better this year. Last year they had the 8th best net rating in the west. This year they are #7
OKC has had like 2 games against contenders, they dont play real teams till next month
Why are you doing point per 36 min and not point per game for some stats and other stats you’re doing point per game. I don’t understand
As unstoppable as OkC looks. I think nuggets and rockets will give them dogfights in playoffs
Jason love the content you bring actual basketball analysis to YouTube.
By the way, your hair is starting to look like Wolfie from the munsters. Lol.
That Austin Reeves take from Wednesday got old quick!
Jason is so blinded by his bias it’s amazing.
Does anyone else notice that Jason used to be like THE Shai supporter in this stratosphere? Idk if YALL have been watching long enough but he was super ahead of the curve with Shai. Warned people he was coming and ranked him ahead of Tatum even after the title for Boston.
Even during at least the majority of the 2024//25 season. But then something happened. It might have been related to Luka going to LA. It might have been that subconsciously he got a little nervous with how good Shai was getting. He sees the game SO well, Jason is amazing, but it’s so obvious when a block arises in him and skews him. It definitely feels like Shai started displaying such elite skills better than his guys that sort of started being 80% negative 20% positive in his approach to him.
He often says that “that just comes with the territory once you approach this level of greatness” and I think that is true. But he isnt consistent with all of the players who approach greatness. Yes typically after going over every single tiny minuscule thing Luka or LeBron ever does, he will go over some weaknesses or flaws for like , 7 percent of the segment on said player. With Shai, he only mentions positives without their immediately saying there is a some negative catch to it or some caveat about 5 percent of the time. Like he genuinely acted as if Shai, overall, had a bad playoffs last year. In case anyone is unaware, Shai had probably the greatest offensive carry job in NBA history among a modern champion, maybe somewhere in the middle of Dirk and Curry in 2022. Shai had 15 30 point games, only MJ and Hakeem have had 16. He made 50% of all of his clutch shots! And lead the playoffs in most clutch shots made. He came up massive in games 3, 4 vs Memphis, 1, 2, 4, 5 and 6 and 7 vs Denver( yes I know some of those are losses, but when you score 34 on over 50% shooting I don’t care , thats an elite playoff game) and games 1, 2, 4 and 5 vs Minny. He was ridiculous in that series. And then, against the Pacers, he was insane, insane for his first finals. He dropped 38 and 34 in his first two games, most ever. Had 15 points in the final 4 minutes of game 4 to save the series, 35 overall( I think I heard someone say once that JDub saved Shai in games 4 and 5 lol?) and then in game 5, had arguably his best first 3 qtrs of the series, and overall finished with a beautiful 31 points 11 assists and FOuR BLOcKs and 2 steals. THAT game right there is the one people claim he got carried on. Jdub was awesome. But if you watched the game it was, as ALWaYS, the entire series, with unfathomable attention for the entire defense and crazy physicality being allowed, Shai who controlled evertrhing. Dub was aweosme down the stretch once it was basically alteady a 10-15 point lead, Dub must have had 17 in the 4th or so while Shai had already helped build a big lead. But sure. We can say Dub was great that game.
And then finally, game 7. Shai missed his final 7 shots. Guess what? Not a single one of them mattered. He had 29 points and 12 BEAUTIFUL assists, hit two massive 3s in the second half to start runs, and deliver massive knockout blows, and his passing wasnt just the kind of assists where you swing the ball, like Haliburton style assists , and your teammate attacks an advantage and takes 3 dribbles and finishes with a tough lay or a short middy. No. He was getting into the teeth of that defense over, and over, and over, and over, and setting up his teammates for WIDE OPEN SHOTS, dunks and layups. It was a passing master class. And how many players have had 29 points and 12 dimes in a game 7? I think the answer is two. Shai and Walt. But maybe one more?
I don’t care that this comment js “too long”. It’s all facts . Jason is so anti Shai because he is scared of how historically great he is. Bro is going to end up top 10
Nba is scripted Hollywood entertainment stop putting energy into a fantasy exhibition game
It’s always funny to me how high the media is on the clippers every season.
Just wanted to say respect for making an episode like this. Can't name many other people in the wide net of nba media who are this honest about when they think they are wrong about something (even though its still early in the season). In general you've always been honest about your bias and how you view the game but always try to be fair and factual in your takes and it makes your content so much better because of that. Appreciate the work Jason
Knicks don't get a quarter of the excuses the Lakers constantly get. If the bulls went on a 6 game winning streak right now we'd see videos saying they'll win the east.
Shocking stat I learned recently: As of the day this video has been released, the thunder's championship-winning starting line up has not played a minute of basketball together this season. The OKC Thunder are currently 24-1 and there best lineup hasn't even played together yet.
"Since Lebron's come back I think the fit's been fantastic."
When the three stars share the court they've been like a -8. And Lebron by himself is a -4. There continues to be this thing with Lebron where we're judging everything RELATIVELY. RELATIVE to his age he's fantastic (true)!!! RELATIVE to some pessimism about his attitude he's been very cheery (true)!!! ……….. and so what? Does that mean he's actually helping them win? If I went out on the court and hit a three that would be RELATIVELY fantastic …. and you'd still be insane to put me in the rotation. Lebron is taking up $50m of the cap and is bad defensively and redundant offensively (and taking the ball away from Reeves). If that $50m were being used on three solid role players …. how much better would this team be?
As a nuggets fan, I agree with you. I watch the thunder games too. They show up with energy that the nuggets don't, the whole team moves at another speed than the nuggets. They are very connected with each other, you can see the confidence, the swagger. I'm excited to see them play each other, I would like to say Nuggets have a punchers chance, but I really don't even know about saying that at this point. It's looking very very tough for any team to handle them for a whole 7 games if it even reaches that point
Shai “tiny bit better” than Luka dude isn’t this supposed to be objective analysis what are you watching on the court
Grade F for your spurs take that is always stupid and Spurs fans dont forget
If you were told that there is a player that is leading his entire team for the year in points, rebounds, assists and stocks with the results pushing their team to a top 5 position while exceeding all preseason expectations, would this be your mvp candidate?
Thanks for being willing to change Jason. Thunder up
The Clippers take couldn’t have been more wrong 💀 but it’s not really your fault lol no one could’ve predicted this
Go spurs go!
Love the accountability! Shows character
Reeves is solid defensively? Other teams hunt him out. I mean he tries and gives effort but solid is a strong word.
I think the OKC/Denver take is still a wait and see proposition. No one–even the folks that predicted the Nuggets would ultimately win it–thought Denver was going to win more games in the regular season or even come close. I mean, the Nuggets are on pace for 62 wins. If they do that they could still finish 10 or more games behind OKC. So in my mind nothing I've seen so far has been surprising other than OKC playing the easiest schedule in the league and taking care of biz literally every time. Impressive they've shown up every night. But ultimately this will come down to the playoffs. And I don't think this version of the Nuggets–if healthy–has any fear of OKC or any other team in a playoff setting. It would be fun to see a rematch.
Wait
You predicted the Lakers would host a series in first round but also predicted the Clippers had the best chance to finish in top 4 of that tier of teams.
So I'm guessing it was Houston you picked to fall out of the 4?
“He’d probably have 7 assists if he didn’t have to take so many 4th quarters off….”
Jason, could you please try to not sound so much like you don’t know anything about basketball. It makes it difficult to take you seriously when you say dumb shit like this. He’s averaging 33.1 minutes per game which is the same thing he’s averaged every year of his career. It’s more than Steph Curry averaged in his career. Some players play a few less minutes so they can play at higher intensity while guys like Luka play lower intensity with high minutes and sometimes don’t get any more points or assist down the stretch because they’re tired from playing so many minutes.
It’s not a given that if you just play more minutes your stats will go up And he’s not taking fourth quarters off if he’s getting 33 minutes per game. Per 36 is a retarded stat because maybe if he plays 36 or 37 minutes a game instead by now he’s got injuries and he hast to take some games off or his shot starts getting less efficient. It’s a hypothetical and if you’re judging basketball playing off hypotheticals, you’re stupid.
This is refreshing to see an analyst admit that where they were wrong an their reasoning for their decisions.
Nuggets squeezed out a series win against the clippers last year in 7 games, they are not beating Houston, LA, Wolves and especially OKC. All those teams will be at or close to over 50 wins and Jokic just can’t beat 50 win teams, he’s just too god awful on defense.
Teddy atlas has a saying for boxers that i think also applies for nba players: "you get 15% better once you become a champion".
You are not right Jokic is not the best player in the world
Let’s compare schedules
Not ready to count out the Nuggets. Regular season wins don’t matter if Murray becomes Blue Arrow and Jokic is his normal self in the playoffs. They are just too good to count out. I believe that Jokic’s supercomputer mind will find a way to penetrate the greatest defense the NBA has ever seen.
What is an NBA hipster?
The Seasons NOT over YET its still early
Not a punchers chance Denver is more!!!! Than capable a pretty strong chance
4:15 A tiny bit better than Luka!? Are you kidding me Jason!? 56/45/88 splits compared to 47/34/80 for Luka. Shai is scoring more per minute than Luka and he turns the ball over less than half the amount Luka does! Don’t get me started on Defense. Shai is much better than Luka.
And on another note, you said Chet isn’t as good behind the arc? He’s shootint a career high .395% from 3.
9:17 Lakers aren’t anywhere near as good as their record. They are 14th with a 1.6 Net Rating. 26th on defense. They will be out in the first round. They are MID. Will finish 5th at best. OKC, Denver, Houston, Spurs are much better, and I’d take Minnesota in 5 over them.
Why don't you say literally a few dozen more times you frigging middle school girl
All.those in the business of making predictions should perform this sort of exercise.
Spurs fan, belated check-in. Lakers don’t have it.