Where Do The Wizards Pivot After Falling In NBA Draft Lottery? I BMitch & Finlay

Where Do The Wizards Pivot After Falling In NBA Draft Lottery? I BMitch & Finlay

Lot of basketball news last night. Somehow Dallas got the number one overall pick. Somehow the whiz fell all the way to sixth. Uh just a really disappointing night for Hoops Heads in the DMV. Um helping us to make sense of it all is John Hollinger from the Athletic. You can give him a follow, John Hollinger. H O L L I N GR. Um John, thanks very much for joining us. How you doing, man? I’m doing great. Although I I must admit as a lifelong Commander fan, I am crushed that I can’t talk to Brian Mitchell this morning. Oh, dude, we’ll have you back. We We will We will fix that. Um Be is on his way to Seattle for a uh for a golf trip. So, um he’s escaping all the rain on the East Coast for all the rain on the West Coast, but we we can fix that. I promise. Okay, that’s that’s cool. Um you know, it’s funny. I um right after the lottery I ran into San Antonio Spurs general manager Brian Wright and I don’t know if you know this but he is also a huge Commander fan. I do. We did not we did not spend any time talking about San Antonio moving up to number two. We spent the entire time talking about whether we approved of taking a tackle over an edge rusher at number one and whether this time we drafted a quarterback who can actually play. So that that that was the gist of our conversation last night. So anyway, so sorry to go off off the rails right away here, but no, dude, you’re good. I I love that, man. You got to focus on what’s important. Um exactly. As for the whiz, I mean, could last night literally could not have gone any worse. Uh yeah, I think mathematically that’s correct. That was the worst it could have gone. Now, they were they were only about 50/50 to end up in the top four. So, there was I think roughly a one in4 chance that they could end up at six, which is where they ended up. So, yeah, not not great for the season they endured, right? Um, but this was always a distinct possibility at the same time. And it’s part of the calculus on tanking that, you know, if you have the worst record in the league, it’s still only a one in seven chance that you’re going to end up with the number one pick and most of the time you’re going to be picking somewhere further down and and trying to make the best of it. So, this is sort of what’s what’s baked in now. And I think I think it’s generally for the better to disincentivize tanking, but you hate you hate to see a team and its fans kind of suffer to the extent that Washington did this year and not get a little more out of it than the sixth pick. I I think what’s so tough, John, is this team I feel like finally was going about it the correct way where you you can call it tanking and I understand that and you know they they played a lot of young guys and they did all these different things after the new regime comes in moves on from Beal and does all these different things but it felt like you know this team actually had a direction where they kind of understood the assignment and all the guys Sar Carrington Keshan George when they got AJ Johnson in the trade for Koozma like they they played all these young guys. They they got them their experience and at the end of the road here where you’re hoping maybe you can add a Cooper flag or a Dylan Harper, maybe even an Ace Paley, they end up getting the sixth pick. And I understand your point about you don’t want to en encourage tanking, but it felt like the Whiz finally did stuff the right way and I don’t necessarily agree that what they were doing was tanking and yet they kind of get screwed with the sixth pick there. Yeah, exactly. And the to your point, I mean, this this is the path they should have gone down a long time ago and were resisting it to kind of chase 40 wins in the eight seed with with Beal for for a few years there. Um, and then I I think the thing to remember too is that in this process, Washington has also accumulated a whole bunch of other draft assets besides their own pick that are going to start coming into play here. Uh, as we get it as we get further down the road, uh, these these pick swaps with Phoenix in particular, uh, from the from the Beal trade, uh, given how the Sun’s future looks, uh, th those look extremely promising and those could be and depending on where the Wizards are. I mean those can be trade assets too. Uh they don’t necessarily have to be used on a pick in 2030. So uh there there’s still a lot to be optimistic about. I think you know Michael Wingers through kind of came in and and did some uh a needed organ organizational faceelift and it’s still early days there. So, uh, it we’ll probably be talking again after the 2026 lottery to be honest, right? And that’s okay. Um, it I I know that you’re correct, but gosh, it just seems like it’s so far away, but I I’m trying to remind myself of how much the end of the Beal era, fighting for a seven seed only to lose in five games, how much that sucked, too. Um, we’re all Yeah, that that that was that was like the high water mark. Right. Right. Right. Right. Um, we are on the Rude guest hotline talking with John Hollinger. Um, RDE makes the most reliable HVAC products in the DMV. John, I I mean, you worked for the Grizzlies at a really high level, like you know the NBA inside and out. What do you say to the claims? Listen, I am not a conspiracy theorist, but it’s really hard to ignore Dallas traded away Luca in secret and then three months later they get the number one overall pick. Uh yeah, I mean that um I I don’t really see those two connected, I guess. Like I don’t know as a league. If I if if I was going to be rigging things for the league, I wouldn’t be like, “Oh, let’s give these idiots another chance, you know?” Yeah. I actually And actually, it’s in the league’s interest to not have the Southwest division win the lottery every single year. Like they they probably would have really liked to see Washington or Charlotte win this and balance out the conferences a little. So, I to me to me it was like the the opposite of what you would have expected if thing if things were rigged. All right. But the one problem with the NBA, including its television partners, ESPN, Turner, like they’re all going hard on this, the perception is awful. And I I I can totally understand where you’re coming from as somebody that worked in the league and understands it on like a entirely more granular level, but like the perception of this is is is awful for a league that has it. What’s so crazy about the NBA is the playoffs are so magnificent and their regular season product is so broken and like it just continues like negative conversation surrounding the NBA, at least domestically. Yeah, I I mean they have people in the room every year, reporters and whatnot. Like I I don’t know what more they could do to be more open about the fact that it would be basically impossible to do I guess what some people think that might happen with the lottery. Um so I I I don’t know what to what to say about that that part. I mean they to their credit they have done some things to change like because so my second to last year in the with the Grizzlies was 2018 where it was a loaded draft right it was you know Luca Jiren Jackson ended up you know Trey Young Shay Gildas Alexander you know Aton ended up being the number one pick we all thought he was going to be awesome ended up not being quite as good as we thought but so everyone was shall we they positioning themselves for that draft. And that was when if you had the worst record, you had a 25% chance at getting number one. Um, and the efforts to position teams for that draft was definitely more egregious than anything we’ve seen since then, since they modified it. Um, and and I think we see why. I mean, Washington, for instance, they Bob Carrington made that crazy shot to win the last game of the season and it puts them ahead of Utah, but it ended up like it didn’t matter. It was still 14% for them to get the number one pick either way, right? And so, like, that shot moves them from five to six. Like, it’s just not a big deal. And I I think that’s a good thing for for the league that that’s the case. Yeah, I I’m with you. Uh, we’re talking with John Hollinger here on the Rude Guest Hotline. You can give John a follow, John Hollinger. H O L L I N G- er, noted Burgundy and gold fan. Um, let’s switch from I think like what is probably unintelligent yet pissed off discourse surrounding the riggedness of the lottery to I I have really enjoyed watching the Knicks beat the Celtics. I I just Boston just seems one of these teams that that has so much success that they kind of just they seem like slightly disinterested or something. I I don’t know how best to describe it, but obviously last night everything changes with the Tatum industry, uh the Tatum injury, rather. What do we know? And and what’s Boston’s path going forward? Well, so they’re doing an MRI today. I haven’t seen any news yet. I think the expectation, unfortunately, is that he probably hurt his Achilles. We’ve all seen Achilles injuries and what they look like and how players react. And this is, you know, follows the exact uh kind of framework of that. In which case, I mean, that’s a year injury. And so that changes a ton of things for Boston. I mean, they have this crazy expensive roster already that they were already looking at, you know, where they might have to cut next year just to avoid the repeater tax and the uh and the second apron penalties. And I think that’s only going to be more imperative if they’re looking at not having Tatum next year anyway. Um, you know, there’s Al Horford is another question now. I mean, he’s what, 38 or 39? His contract’s expiring. Is tomorrow his last game? Like, you can’t rule that out, right? Like, he just decides to walk away or if he decides to go somewhere else next year. Um, so there’s a lot that’s suddenly in play. in Boston for their future where you know when you woke up yesterday morning you’re thinking they had this half decade window uh with the two Jays and man one injury changes your changes your fortunes in basketball pretty quickly. Um so pretty devastating uh to to watch. Um he was playing so great in that game too. Um, even even as the Celtics themselves were struggling with New York, I’ve I’ve been kind of shocked by that because they owned the Knicks in the regular season, the four times they played them. But, uh, you know, hat tip to Carl Towns especially, who I think has held up a lot better defensively in these playoffs than anyone expected. And New York is now I mean if you look at a New York Indiana series now uh be a repeat of them playing a year ago and a very interesting series to determine who gets a spot in the finals. I mean you mentioned Indiana there. How shocked are you by how that series has gone? Is it more of what Indiana has done in the series or is it the the Cavaliers have not been able to play like they had all season long because they look so impressive this year and now they’re down 3-1. Yeah, I mean there’s definitely some injury issues with Cleveland that impacted that. Garland didn’t play the first two games. Moley didn’t play game two. Uh Hunter didn’t play game two. Dunovan Mitchell played game four, did not look like himself at all even before he went out at halftime. Uh so that that part has been trouble. But the other part is that Indiana got off to a very slow start this year, but they’ve been gang busters since the midpoint of the season. So I think they profiled as tougher than a typical four seed that you might face and that’s been a factor in it too cuz that I mean game four especially obviously they just came out and killed them uh that they play and part of that was Cleveland was sluggish or whatever but Indiana played so well. I mean I I just don’t know who was beating that Pacer team on that night the way they played. Yeah, the Pacers have been great. And I um who knows? I mean, at at this point, maybe the Knicks win the damn title. I don’t know, but it feels like to me the title winners coming out of Thunder Nuggets out of that series. Obviously, uh they I think they play tonight. Um what do you what do you think of that matchup and and who do you think gets out of there? Uh I agree with you. I think Thunder Nuggets winner would have the advantage they’d have home court over Minnesota next round. if it’s Minnesota that advances, which I think it probably will be. Um, and I think Oklahoma City basically this is working out almost like Boston the year before and Denver the year before that where the bracket just kind of is falling away and all the all the teams that really matched up and could have maybe given them a series or gone by the time they they get to that round. that like this could end up just being a really soft, easy run for them depending. Uh I think fatigue is starting to catch up to the Nuggets. They played a sevename series last round. They had one day off before game one of this series. It’s just been every other day since then. They’re playing all their starters 40 minutes every game. The Thunder play very fast. I I think this this could be a very challenging game five, let’s say, for uh for Denver. So, I would give Oklahoma City the advantage. Uh even though Denver has done some things in this series that I think are a little bit of a roadmap defensively for the teams that the Thunder will face in the next round into how to uh limit the Thunder from running and really uh jam up some of the things they like to do in in the half court at at the same time and just make them totally dependent on Shay for all their offense. So, I I it’s it’ll be interesting to see h how how other teams can apply that against them. But I on paper, I mean, the Thunder is the best team. They were they were the best team all year and they have a pretty easy bracket now. So, if they can just take care of business at home tonight, I think it’s advantage Thunder the rest of the way. Real quick, John, circling back where we started looking at the NBA draft for the Wizards, I think the consensus is saying Flag will go one, Harper probably goes two. It looks like you’re lower from your rankings on Ace Bailey, but it seems like he’s probably going to go three or four. Edgecomb probably goes somewhere in that range as well. Outside of those guys, what do you think is the best option or who do you think some of the guys are that the Wizards could target at six now? So, I would say two guys for them would be Khan Canipple from Duke, who is um I would I would describe him as like I think there’s this negative viewpoint where Wizards fans are going to be like, “Oh, he’s just Cory Kissert.” And I think he actually has a lot more juice than Kiss. Um just in terms of being a guy who can make plays off the dribble, get all the way to the rim, uh defend his position. I think he’s a a really good player. Um, the other guy I think they’re probably going to end up looking at is Jeremiah Fierce from Oklahoma, uh, who is, uh, pick and roll point guard, very good handle, uh, can get downhill, get to the rim. Uh, had a pretty strong freshman year. He’s a little small. The shooting’s a little suspect. Uh, there’s some overlap there with P, but like I don’t I don’t think you can make draft decisions if you’re the Wizards based on Jordan Pool, right? He’s he’s not that level of building block, right? So, um so yeah, I think I think Beers is is another guy to definitely watch for the Wizards. Um what John, just in your best estimate as a guy that did this for for the Grizz, like when should Washington be competitive again? So, here’s here’s the thing with that’s tough with a rebuild is that you don’t know because the thing that drives everything else is getting somebody who’s good enough to be the best player on a good team. And until you have that, you’re rebuilding. And so it it could have been this year, right, if they end up number one. But, uh, I I think that’s that’s what makes it a little unknowable is until until you have that guy like you haven’t really started yet. Yeah. I mean, that’s what’s so tough about the NBA is just you need to get that superstar by any means possible. And I think the Wizards felt like they had done everything that they could have and they get the sixth pick. So maybe it’s but but by all accords you would know better than I would. It seems like next year’s draft could be really good as well. So maybe if the Wizard Yeah. go through this again. I’ve heard I’ve heard really good things about Darren Peterson as a guard who’s going to Kansas. Uh AJ Deansa, I’ve seen him play twice, small forward going to BYU. Um I would I would compare him as a prospect, not as an NBA player necessarily, as a prospect to Andrew Wiggins who went uh number one several years ago. Um and uh and there are some other strong players, too. Uh uh Carlos Boozer’s uh son, who’s first name on blanket, Cameron Boozer, uh very strong prospect as well, playing for Duke. Like it’s it’s a good crop next year. Um, John, thank you so much for the time. I promise we’ll have you back when Bee’s on the show and you can talk all all of uh the glory days of the Burgundy and Gold. Yeah. Sorry I’m not being That would be that would be outstanding. I have many fond punt return memories. So, he was memorable. Yeah, that that that would be wonderful. Yeah. All right. Thanks so much, dude. Sorry we vented about the lottery being rigged. Thanks for having me. All right. That’s John Hollinger from The Athletic. You can give him a follow at John Hollinger joining us via the rude guest hotline.

JP and Tobi discuss last night’s NBA Draft Lottery with NBA senior columnist John Hollinger. John doesn’t believe the conspiracy theorists claiming the NBA Draft Lottery is rigged.

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