Oklahoma City Thunder vs Denver Nuggets Game 6 Predictions | 2025 NBA Playoffs Picks 5/15/25

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Denver Nuggets Game 6 Predictions | 2025 NBA Playoffs Picks 5/15/25

Round two, game six, Thursday night on ESPN between the Thunder and Nuggets. I’m going to break down the side total player props, free info, free analysis coming up right here, right now. Hi, this is Steve Merrill, wager talk.com, right back here on Wager Talk TV. And don’t forget, I’ve been doing every NBA playoff game every day for you. If you’re finding it useful, thumbs up, like, positive comments below, and I will keep it going on a daily basis. All right, the Thunder the best record in the NBA this year, the best defensive efficiency, the best net rating overall, but they have struggled a bit in this playoff series. And yes, they pulled out the win in game five at home as expected, but it wasn’t pretty and they had to uh go down to the wire. In fact, Denver went to a zone defense, which really started to cause trouble for Oklahoma City. And SGA got over his point prop total. He landed 31. It was 30 and a half, but drove to the lane several times, flopping, not getting the foul calls like he did in the regular season. So, this isn’t a done deal yet. And I do think Denver has a chance to extend the series as a home dog. I’m going to look at the total though for the free play in this video. Once again, I think the Thunder are the better team. If they played anywhere near their norm, they should win this game by double digits. But once again, hard to trust OKC. Uh really went in an offensive slump late in that game. It cost us our team total play by a couple points. Had they not gone on a 4-minute scoreless drought in the fourth quarter, the team total gets up and over easy. I’ll talk about the total for this game in a moment. Uh but once again, Denver back at home, four and a half to five point dog. I do think OKC is the better team. But I almost feel like Denver, even with the intram head coach, has been the better coach team. And it’s interesting too, guys, I pulled up these numbers. If you look at large largest margin of lead in either game and then you subtract the difference for example Denver was up 12 in game five OKC was up 10. So that would be plus two for Denver. The margin of difference between biggest lead has been more than seven only once in all five games and that was that game two blowout in which OKC came in off the um the loss in game one in a focus spot. But it’s been 7 6 and -2 for all the other games. So, the Thunder really have not been dominating the series as much as they should. We will look at the total though for a free play here in this video. I’m also going to give you some free player props in just a moment. Uh, first big adjustment down from the game one and game two lines and even the game three line. We saw 229 230 and then 232 in game three in Denver. The first game they played here last week and even with overtime it stayed under. So then they bumped it to 228 it land at 179 and then 221 a half land at 217. So, we’ve had three straight unders including two very lowscoring games in Denver in the thin air and altitude. But I think we’re getting some value now over 217. And there’s a few reasons. First of all, this is 15 points lower than two games ago in Denver back in game three. And then on top of that, we’re getting a little bit of a sharp square divide. And the reason I say that is yes, it briefly opened 219, got bumped down to 217, but if you look at the sharp square books on the oddslogic.com free live odds screen, I’ll have, by the way, a 7-day trial for you in just a moment. Square Public Books are at 217. The Sharper Offshore books are 217 a.5. Pinnacle’s even at 218 plus money. So, I do think there’s a little bit of a sharp lean to the over here based on that adjusted line value. Now, I’m concerned because Oklahoma City struggled with the zone defense. But, I think with the day off and extra prep time now, they’ll make some adjustments. So, I look for OKC to play better, shoot a little bit better, and play smarter. Hopefully, if they do so, I think they probably get the win and this game gets over. But, we’ll see how it plays out. It was ugly at times in that fourth quarter on uh Tuesday night in game four or game five rather. OKC escaped with the win. Uh we’ll see what they can do here in game six. But I would lean over 217 as I think it’s a little bit of an over adjustment based on the past few games. And keep in mind uh Denver has not shot well in the past couple games. In game four they were very poor. 11 for 45 24% from three. OKC was exactly 10 for 41. 24% from three as well. OKC did shoot better from three-point range in game five, but Denver struggled again just 13 for 46. 28% only 41% from the field, but the pace is kind of quick still. So, if the teams hit anywhere near their normal shot percentages, I think over 217 is in play. Let’s look at some player props. So, I think that might be where the best value is here in this game six on Thursday night. I’ve been talking about Westbrook. I said, “Hey, he had the three big games to start and I told you a couple games ago, look to start fading him on a consistent basis.” And if you’ve done so, uh, you have definitely made some money. He was just 1 for seven, just 19 and a half minutes, just four points in game five the other night. Uh, he had only six points in game four, only eight points in game three. So once again, the last three games, if you faded Westbrook, like I mentioned a few games ago, uh, you’ve been making money. His point total though was 11 12 the first couple when he went over, 13 1/2, and now it’s 10 and a half, even 9 and a half now for game six. So, there’s not a lot of value left at this point, but it’d be Westbrook unders or pass for me, especially against the best defensive team in the league. Um, Jokic, let’s talk Jokic. We always talk about how he’s like a triple double machine every other game. Well, he has not had a triple double in this series. He hasn’t even been close to be honest. And that’s because he’s not getting the assist. He’s getting plenty of points, getting the rebounds as well, and he’s really been a one-man show. And I think that’s going to continue because Oklahoma City is a good defensive team. They’re taking the secondary players out of the equation. So, I have no problem with Joic points over. He had 44 the other night. He’s priced at 28 and a half. He had 27 20 and 17 the other games with 42. So he is 3 and2 to the under on points. If you’re going to play his over, it’d be points for me. But I want to talk about assist. The reason he’s not getting close to triple doubles is because he’s not getting any assist. In fact, he has had six assists or less in every one of these games, even though his total has been as high as nine and a half in some of them. Now it’s down to eight and a half, even eight. But if you go all the way back to the Clippers series, in eight of his last nine playoff games this year, Jookic has had eight assists or less. Once again, he’s had eight or less assists in eight of his last nine playoff games, including six or less in all five games in this series. Yet, he’s still priced at that 88 and a half range. So, Joic assist unders have been working. Uh the reason is because he averaged nearly 10 per game this season. Barely averaged basically a triple double this year. Hasn’t been close to being the case. And it’s not a fluke. Oklahoma City the best overall defensive team this year and they’re taking the secondary players out of the equation. And one of those guys other than Westbrook unders who I’ve mentioned all series long is Michael Porter Jr. Unders and they continue to cash. He was awful again in game five, one for seven shooting, 0 for five from three and just two points. Uh Porter Jr. props in game one and two was around 11 12. He was as high as 12 and a half in game four cuz he had that one game of 21 points in game three. He has since had three points and two points the last two games. He had eight points and two points in games one and two. So other than that 21 point outlier in game three. He has been eight or less in his other four playoff games in this series. And he’s still priced at 9 and a half nine at most sports books. So Westbrook Porter under Jokic assist under maybe Yic points over if you’re going to play anything over with him would be the way I look there. And as far as OKC, I mentioned Gilchrist Alexander getting over the 30 and a half, but keep in mind his point total was higher than that for the first few games. His overunder posted line was as high as 32 and 1/2 the first few games and uh then it was 31 and a half. He only had 25 and then they bumped it to 30 and a half. He got to 31, but he has had uh 33, 34, 31, 25 and 18. So he’s been right around this number. And as I mentioned earlier, he’s not getting the foul calls when he drives to the hoop like he does in the regular season. So, I’m kind of neutral on SGA, even though I like maybe the over in this game, more scoring. I’d stay away from him. Uh, the two guys I think that could do more scoring for Oklahoma City. And by the way, when SGA was out there is when they went to the zone defense, and that’s when they struggle because he wants to drive to the hoop. The zone stops that. They move the ball pretty well otherwise with him on the bench, which is kind of counterintuitive. And Jaylen Williams is a big part of that. I’ve mentioned him a few times. He did not have a good shooting night, just five for 14. But he played uh 37 and a half minutes, second most on the team. And if he shoots anywhere near his average after two subpar games, I think he gets there. Keep in mind, he had 32 points in game three at Denver. And then he followed up with only 10 and 18. And now he’s at 21 and a half, even 20 and a halfs out there. I like Jaylen Williams over 20 and a half. I think he could have a decent breakout game here in game six. And a guy off the bench we’ll talk about and most sports books have odds on all these guys since his playoff time is Alex Caruso played only 24 minutes in game six or game five rather the other night but finished with 13 points and he was still only four for 10 shooting but he was three for six from three-point range and Caruso’s got some nice matchups in this series. In fact in his past two games he’s had 10 and 13 points and he had a huge breakout game in game one when he had 20 points. Keep in mind he was priced at 6 and 1/2 in that game. They bumped it to 8 and 1/2. Then he had a seven and a two. They had it at seven and a half the last few games. He’s still anywhere from seven and a half to eight and a half. But once again, he’s had seven points or more in four of the five games in this series. And he’s had double digits in three of the guys. So I do like Alex Caruso over the seven and a half to eight points if you’re looking for an overprop along with Jaylen Williams for the Thunder. There you go. Deep dive. We have just one game because Cavs Pacers is done. Fenito in the tank. Number one seed down in the East. Thunder hanging on. They should win this series up 3-2, but it’s not a done deal. In fact, the adjusted series prices we had into game six has them at almost 1 to12. Take back 8 to1 on the Nuggets. Do you like the Nuggets at 8 to1 to win the next two games? I’m definitely not laying 1 to2, although the Thunder should win one of these two. They haven’t dominated the series as much as they should have. I think they probably get it done. Uh, but once again, they’re not looking like a dominant team like they were in the regular season. What is your prediction for the NBA Finals? I’m saying maybe T-Wolves Pacers. How do you like that? Boy, that would be terrible for the networks. Indiana, Minnesota, they don’t have much left, though. Um, what are your thoughts? Finals prediction, drop it in the chat below. And more importantly, drop your side total player prop predictions for game six here between the Thunder and the Nuggets. I do truly read the uh comments and I’ll reply back. Include some analysis you have time. Let’s learn and earn and win together here on Wager Talk TV. And once again, I’ve done every NBA playoff game. I will continue to do so this entire postseason. 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If you are looking for NBA picks, predictions and best bets for tonight’s Oklahoma City Thunder vs Denver Nuggets Game 6 matchup, we have you covered! Our NBA handicapping experts discuss the game from a sports betting perspective, sharing their picks and predictions vs. the current odds.

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Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Denver Nuggets – Game 6 | May 15, 2025

📍 Venue: Ball Arena, Denver, CO
🕖 Tip-Off: 8:30 PM ET
📺 Watch Live: ESPN, ESPN App, Sling TV, DirecTV Stream, YouTube TV
📻 Radio: WWLS 98.1 FM (Thunder), Altitude Sports Radio 92.5 FM (Nuggets)

📊 Game Odds (as of May 9, 2025)
Spread: Thunder -4.5
Total Points (O/U): 216.5
Moneyline: Thunder -195, Nuggets +165

📱 Team Hashtags
Oklahoma City Thunder: #ThunderUp
Denver Nuggets: #MileHighBasketball

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