How One NBA Rule Will FAIL To Stop An OKC Thunder Dynasty

How One NBA Rule Will FAIL To Stop An OKC Thunder Dynasty

During the 2023 off seasonason, the NBA implemented the new collective bargaining agreement which introduced the second apron, a new salary tool which aims to promote balance around the league. In the most basic terms, the second apron is a team salary threshold which is roughly 10% higher than the luxury tax line for a certain season subject to salary cap adjustments each year. And this second apron is so dreaded because teams whose salaries fall under it are subject to some harsh penalties and restrictions. Basically, teams who fall under the second apron can’t send out multiple players in a single trade. They can’t send out cash in any player deal. They can’t sign and trade their own players. And even in free agency, they can’t use their mid-level exemption to sign players from the buyout market. But also, once a team falls under the second apron, their own first round draft pick 7 years in the future actually gets frozen and can no longer be used or traded. And since the introduction of the second apron two offseasons ago, we’ve already seen how it was able to limit championship teams abilities to extend their windows for title contention. After winning the chip in 2023, the Denver Nuggets have been forced to let go of three crucial role players for three straight off seasons to keep the Nicola Joic and Jamal Murray tandem intact without the team having to dip into the second apron too early. And also, even if Jason Tatum didn’t get hurt, it was always inevitable for the Boston Celtics to trade one or both of Christophs Porzingis and Drew Holiday just one off seasonason after winning a title for the team to be able to trim down their massive payroll for them to avoid getting hit by second apron penalties by 2026. So, looking at it, the second apron was basically designed to prevent the sort of dynasty that the Oklahoma City Thunder are trying to build. as we witnessed how it tore apart rosters that were much cheaper than what this OKC team has. That might give some hope for OKC’s competitors because if they can’t beat the Thunder in the future, the Second Apron surely will, right? Well, not exactly. Because of how Sam Prey and the Thunder’s front office have carefully built this roster with proper drafting and strategic accumulation of future draft assets, there is a realistic path for OKC’s core to stay together for the next 6 years or even beyond. So, in this video, let’s talk about why the OKC Thunder are primed to build a dynasty despite Second Apron limitations, and why the Second Apron might even actually help the Thunder more than it hurts them in the long run. So, let’s get to it. The 2025 OKC Thunder was basically an outlier in the sense that they were able to build a championship roster despite the new CBA limitations due to the fact that much of this team’s top talent are still under cheap rookie contracts. And that will still be the case for the upcoming 2025 to 2026 season. Fresh off winning a championship, OKC’s second and third best players, JD Dub and Chad Homegrren will still be on the last year of their rookie contracts next season. Looking at OKC’s 2025 to 2026 payroll, Chat will make just more than 13 million while JDub will make just 6.5 million. Even if you add in Shay’s 38 million salary and iHeart’s 28.5 million salary, and even when you add in the amounts from recent extensions given to AJ Mitchell and Jay Will, OKC’s team salary will equal to just around 187.3 million. And based on the projected second apron threshold of around 207 million, the Thunder will still be roughly around 20.4 4 million below the second apron threshold. For context, when you compare their cap situation to that of other projected contenders for next season, you’ll see how favorable OKC’s position is when teams like the Denver Nuggets and the New York Knicks are much closer to the second apron. While the Cavs will already exceed the second apron threshold by more than 22 million. So, thanks to the Thunder being able to draft young starc caliber players, they will be in such a good position to repeat as NBA champs next season, all while still staying far below the second apron. But then things will get a little bit more tricky during the subsequent 2026 to 2027 season, as this is the time when JDub and Chad’s recently signed Max extensions are going to kick in. For that 2027 season, the salary of OKC’s big three combined already equals an estimated 123.5 million. Add that to the rest of the team salary and the Thunder’s payroll will balloon to around 246.3 million. And based on the projected second apron threshold for that season, OKC will already exceed the second apron line by more than 24 million in addition to them also exceeding the luxury tax line by more than 45 million. Well, at this point, the luxury tax is going to be unavoidable for the Thunder. But the good thing is they can actually avoid the second apron altogether because of how Sam Prey has structured some contracts has signed the past few seasons to include team options. Looking at it for the 2026 to 2027 season, iHeart has a huge 28.5 million team option. Lou Dort will also have an 18.2 million team option while Kenrich Williams will have a smaller 7.1 million team option. So all in all, that’s around 53.8 8 million in cash that OKC can unilaterally offload their payroll in the summer of 2026 if needed, which would immediately put OKC more than 29 million below the second apron threshold. Well, that doesn’t necessarily mean all three of iHeart, Dort, and Williams are gone. It’s still possible that maybe Dort and iHeart would agree to restructure their contracts into much cheaper deals. But if that doesn’t happen, then it’s also possible that the Thunder pick up their team options before trading them to get some value of their contracts. The most possible scenario is iHeart’s massive 28.5 million team option gets offloaded, which of course becomes easier to do given potential development from Chad Hungren and of course with OKC adding another two-way big in 2025 first round pick Thomas Orber. The point is OKC can easily get money off their payroll to maneuver around the second apron when needed. And overall, they should still be able to maintain a championship core during that 2026 to 2027 season while still ducking the second apron. But then moving into the 2027 to 2028 season, this is when the second apron will most likely start to come into play for OKC, especially considering this is when SGA’s newly signed 285 million Super Max deal will kick in. For this season alone, OKC’s big three will already be making a combined 150.1 million, which is already almost 64% of the cap for that year. Add to that the rest of the team, and OKC’s payroll will be at around 214 million. And with the second apron estimated to be at around 233 million, OKC will be left with just more than 19 million to spend before they reach the second apron. And that still doesn’t include Kase Wallace’s new extension, which will be kicking in during that season, as well as potential extensions for a 29-year-old Isaiah Hardenstein and a 28-year-old Lou Dort, which would also have kicked in by that time. Although the team will still have some flexibility to explore at this point as Isaiah Joe will have an 11.3 million team option while Jay Will also has a 7.7 million team option for that season. Offloading those contracts could still give OKCum cap relief. But at this point, the Thunder will most likely already be entering second apron territory. Again, by this time, we’re already talking about the 2027 off season wherein Shay will be 29, JDub will be 26, and Chad will be 25. Meaning this is when OKC’s big three will be entering the heart of their prime years. And by that time, Sam Prey will have a much better sense of what an optimal team centered around Shay, JDub, and Chad should look like. So by then, it will be much easier for the Thunder to move veteran role players. And during the 2027 to 2028 season, Alex Caruso will be earning 20.9 million, but he will already be 34 by then. The Thunder could choose to trade him to be able to fit Kase Wallace’s rookie extension. Also, as great as Isaiah Joe and Jay Will are as role players, they are definitely expendable and the Thunder could find their replacements in the next two NBA drafts. So, they could definitely be traded by the summer of 2027 to accommodate the next contract of Nicola Topic that will kick in by the 2028 to 2029 season. So overall, I think we can presume that OKC will already be a second apron team by either the 2027 to 2028 season or 2028 to 2029 season or potentially both, which I think gives OKC that 2-year window to go deep into the second apron and spend as much cash as possible because beginning the 2029 to 2030 season, things will change significantly by this time. Because OKC has already been a luxury tax team for the past three seasons, they will also now be subject to the repeater tax, which is a penalty imposed on teams that exceed the luxury tax threshold in three of the past four seasons. And also by this time, the Thunder would also have been a second apron team for 2 years already, which means they will also have been facing second apron penalties at this point. But then the question is, in the long run, will those penalties really affect the Thunder that much? Think about those second apron restrictions we talked about earlier, like not being able to match salaries in the trade or not being able to use the mid-level exemption to sign players off the buyout market. Basically, those penalties were designed to make it harder for teams to acquire players from the outside. But then, the Thunder actually don’t really need external additions. They already have a dominant core and their team is remarkably young. And of course, they have 10 first round picks and 17 second round picks until the year 2032, which they can utilize to draft highlevel players and cheap rookie contracts to eventually replace expensive core pieces to make sure that their big three is sustainably surrounded by a winning roster right at the heart of their primes. Well, sure, because OKC will most likely be a second apron team beginning the 2027 to 2028 season. That also means their own first round pick 7 years down the line beginning in 2035 will actually get frozen. But then OKC just has so many draft picks from other teams that they can afford to lose value in their own picks. So looking at it, the Thunder might be practically immune to the worst effects of the second apron. And that is something you can’t say for the rest of the league. Most teams would have to add veteran talent from the free agent or the trade market. And when that talent becomes expensive, most teams won’t have an endless cycle of prospects to replace them the way OKC does. Most teams will have to build their rosters the normal way that the CBA planned the second apron around. Meaning most teams would need to add money using trades and would need to sign free agents to be competitive. But OKC wouldn’t have that problem for a very long time. Well, for sure the second apron will still be limiting the Thunder, but it’s going to hurt them far less than it’s going to hurt their competition. So, in that sense, the second apron might actually be a positive for OKC. Well, there are a few teams who have seemingly already followed the Thunder’s blueprint in terms of roster building, such as the San Antonio Spurs and the Houston Rockets, who are also going to be less vulnerable to second apron restrictions because of how both teams have been able to develop young talent and stack future draft assets. But so far, no other team has limited the impact of the Second Apron as effectively as the OKC Thunder. So, based on everything we’ve talked about to this point, it seems like the Second Apron won’t really do much to impact OKC’s roster building up until the 2029 to 2030 season. But even then, they’ve already assembled enough young talent to potentially keep competing for championships even into the 2030s. Overall, it seems like this team’s downfall would more likely come from ownership not being willing to pay their massive tax bills. But historically speaking, the Thunder have shown willingness to spend despite being one of the league’s smaller market teams. OKC have been luxury taxpayers from 2015 to 2020, which even included the 61.6 luxury tax payment during the last year of the Russell Westbrook era, which was actually one of the highest penalties in the history of the NBA at that time. And OKC’s ownership being willing to do the same for the next 10 years or so should be a terrifying thought for the rest of the NBA. We got to remember that the Thunder are a 68- win defending champion that just posted the highest single season point differential in league history with their three best players not even reaching their primes and who are all locked up until the 2031 season. It’s just that very few teams in history have ever been this well positioned for extended dominance, even if we exist in an era designed to discourage NBA dynasties. But is there really something that can stop OKC from building an NBA dynasty? Feel free to drop your thoughts in the comments section below. And again, if you’re new to the channel, please consider subscribing as well. Again, this has been Real Balls, and I’ll see you on the next one. Peace. We

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The OKC Thunder have won the NBA championship and even if they are not having the loudest offseason, this team is primed to build an NBA dynasty. The Thunder have just locked up their big three of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren until the 2030-2031 season with supermax and max deals that could be worth up to 822 million. The NBA summer league has been worth all the hype with prospects like Yang Hansen and Cooper Flagg. The winners of the NBA offseason also include teams Victor Wembanyama and the Spurs, Cooper Flagg and the Dallas Mavericks, and Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets. But in the long term, the OKC Thunder might have the highest ceiling among all NBA teams for the next decade with a ton of draft assets, and players to compliment their core such as Alex Caruso, Lu Dort, Isaiah Hartenstein, Cason Wallace, and Nikola Topic.

Unlike big market teams who will have to keep paying huge contracts such as the Milwaukee Bucks with Giannis, The Celtics with Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, the LA Lakers with Luka Doncic and LeBron James, OKC will have the advantage of surviving against the second apron because of the talent and the stockpile of draft picks that they have. There have been some teams like the San Antonio Spurs and the Houston Rockets who are trying to replicate Sam Presti and his blueprint for the OKC Thunder rebuild but so far, no one seems more equipped to handle salary cap limitations and build a dynasty more than the Thunder.

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