Lots of talk about re-signing our guys with the recent extensions for RJ, Herro, and Poole. I’ve also been thinking we’ll likely have to trade one of them, but now I’m not too sure.
Saw this tweet which made me think again:
[2023-2024 Luxury Tax line is 162m. Our 4 core players who are not free agents (Siakam, OG, Barnes, Precious) make less than 70m in 2023. In what world do we not have enough money to retain our starting backcourt?](https://twitter.com/YAnunoby/status/1581341659349983232)
It’s also been reported that the [salary cap could reach 171m in 2025 after the new TV deal](https://www.forbes.com/sites/bryantoporek/2022/08/05/why-nba-teams-should-already-be-planning-for-the-2025-offseason/?sh=21ab27fd27c4)
Even if FVV and GTJ get 65m combined for next season (that’s a bit of a higher estimate I think – contracts usually have raises every year so the first year would be lower), that still leaves us with nearly 30m in space before the tax. With our other guys we’ll likely be a tax team but it’s not like we’ll be super deep in the tax and we have other players we can trade to shed money if by all means we have to avoid the tax (Khem, Boucher, Thad, Malachi, etc).
The timing of Pascal/OG/Precious being FAs is actually kinda ideal (unless they take short-term deals). They’ll be FAs before the spike kicks in, meaning their deals are limited to a % of the pre-spike cap. These amounts will be a significantly smaller % of the post-spike cap, meaning we can keep more of them and not be in luxury tax hell.
Also one thing worth noting – people talking about having to pay these guys this much and our ownership won’t pay cause we won’t be good enough. If Fred and Gary play to the level that people think they will to be worth that much, our team will be very good and pushing into the upper echelon of the East. At that point, MLSE would likely be willing to pay the tax.
TLDR: Next year isn’t as much of a crunch as you think, a cap spike is coming, everyone chill lol
by Cheechers23
6 Comments
i think the general consensus is, gary is likely opting out of his player option and he’ll be trying to get one of these big contracts- if not from us, then from another team. we know masai isn’t looking to pay him a lot so masai will probably trade him at the deadline. the writing is on the wall.
I think the problem with this fanbase is a lot of ppl are also fans of the Leafs who play in a poverty league lol. You have to switch mindsets when comparing how NHL and NBA contracts work.
If every new NBA contract seems like a huge overpay it’s not the contracts it’s your expectations that are wrong. The new TV deal coming will highlight this even more. Players will be getting PAID.
MLSE isn’t going into the luxury tax for a non finals contender, if the Raps somehow make the ECF then maybe I could see it.
My guess would be something revolving around Gary at the deadline, but who knows maybe they like we’re things are headed and they make a big splash at the deadline.
I don’t see them commiting close to 30M a piece per year to Gary and Fred, when you’ll have to extend OG for probably around 25M and if Pascal makes another All NBA team then I believe he’s eligible for a supermax extension.
Then you factor in guys like Precious and eventually Scottie and things just get really messy cap wise
They better pay the tax, they’re still making a profit on the franchise.
Yeah, I said this to your comment in the other thread, but there’s definitely a path here where the Raptors could stay just under the tax in 2023-24, pay into it in 2024-25, and then get back under in 2025-26 with the huge increase.
Part of the advantage in getting these guys locked-in before the new TV deal is because they become value contracts afterwards. Like I get that Herro looks like an overpay now. In the first year of his extension, his salary is 16% of the tax threshold, but drops down to around 14% once the new TV deal kicks in, even accounting for his raises. Same with GTJ and FVV. The contracts are going to become more valuable trade assets in years 3 and 4.
Just next year, staying under the tax threshold means probably moving some combination of Young, Birch and Flynn. For Young, you could also simply renounce him next year, but that alone might not be enough. As nice a piece as Young has been, those are all acceptable loses to keep the rest of the roster together. And since tax is calculated on pro-rated salaries over the course of the season, there’s also the option of going into next season just a little over and shedding salary during the season if they don’t look like contenders.
I think it is not really possible to win a championship without paying the luxury tax.