The standings are bunched, star injuries have delayed decisions and after several years of heavy draft pick trading, there is a dearth of available first-round picks, the most valued currency in rebuild trades.
​
There is, however, one team being watched more than all others: the Chicago Bulls.
​
The Bulls are facing a potentially grueling crossroads. A trade they made two seasons ago for Nikola Vucevic means their draft pick will go to the Orlando Magic this year unless it falls among the top four picks. This provision was a footnote after last season’s 46-36 campaign, but it now hangs over them.
​
Dating to last summer, league executives wondered whether the Bulls might end up on the playoff bubble in the Eastern Conference after several 2021-22 teams that finished behind them in the standings upgraded their rosters and the Bulls just spun in place. For now, they’re 29 games into the season and outside the play-in line.
​
Their situation worsened when Lonzo Ball, who had proven to be an important player, needed a second knee surgery that has left the point guard without a timetable for return and in a very deliberate rehab process.
​
The Bulls (11-18) started this week with the league’s seventh-worst record, in no small part because they weren’t able to acquire an effective replacement for Ball this offseason. They now are uncomfortably forced to look at the reverse standings. The lottery odds in their position have them with a slightly better than 30% chance of keeping their pick if they stay in that spot, which means they’d be 70% likely to lose it to Orlando.
​
Talking about maximizing these odds is unpalatable, especially when at best it’s a coin flip. The teams with the league’s four worst records at season’s end have at least a 50% chance of staying in the top four.
​
A coin flip for draft prospects Victor Wembanyama, Scoot Henderson or a player such as Amen Thompson or Ausar Thompson isn’t the worst gamble in league history, of course, but it’s still not a great sell to your fans or your ownership.
​
The issue, though, is the Bulls just might not have a good enough team to compete in the loaded East. Their ceiling might be limited regardless of the draft pick situation. Zach LaVine, who signed a five-year, $215 million deal in the offseason, has been sluggish in recovering from offseason knee surgery.
​
In a league largely driven by the 3-pointer, the Bulls are last in attempts and 27th in makes. They’re in the bottom 10 in offense and the bottom 10 in rebounding percentage. Last season, the Bulls piled up close-game wins, ranking third in the league in NBA clutch rating. This season, they’re 20th in that category and 3-8 so far in games decided by five points or fewer, all this despite having one of the league’s best clutch players in DeMar DeRozan.
​
Sunday night in Minnesota, playing against a Timberwolves team missing multiple star players, the Bulls gave up 150 points.
​
They have problems, regardless of worrying about where their pick might end up. This team, which was constructed to be a contender, is not and doesn’t appear to be headed there in the short term.
​
There are teams out there that would covet playmaking veteran DeRozan (the Los Angeles Lakers would be high on the list) or defensive specialist Alex Caruso, who is on a team-friendly contract. Vucevic, a scoring big man in the final year of his contract, is a classic target contenders have been willing to pay for at the deadline for decades.
​
The Bulls could perhaps find real value if they started talking calls. With Chicago out an additional future first-round pick owed to the San Antonio Spurs, picking up draft picks could be helpful going forward. Chances are competition might develop with so many teams looking for help in a talent arms race.
​
Then again, the length of the NBA schedule allows for recovery; there is time. There’s valor in that choice, too, trusting the roster. And trusting coach Billy Donovan, who got a big vote of confidence in the form of a contract extension last summer. Leaning on some early-season success, such as when the Bulls beat the NBA-best Boston Celtics twice and won in Milwaukee, and believing it could be recaptured.
​
Then again, it’s a lot easier just to be first.
​
[https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/insider/story/\_/id/35288517/the-hoop-collective-chicago-bulls-find-unenviable-position-trade-market](https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/insider/story/_/id/35288517/the-hoop-collective-chicago-bulls-find-unenviable-position-trade-market)
by fhideki
