Mikal Bridges, Cam Thomas, Jacque Vaughn, and what the heck is wrong with the Nets?

Mikal Bridges, Cam Thomas, Jacque Vaughn, and what the heck is wrong with the Nets?

The Nets closed out 2023 in an absolutely brutal fashion going three and N over their last 12 in one place the ey test and analytics crew can meet in the middle is the Nets have been completely brutal over the last three or so weeks we’re going to break

Down what’s been happening if there any way to change it and what 2024 has in store for this team we’ll get into all that but first the theme music you are locked on Nets your daily Brooklyn Nets podcast part of the locked on podcast Network your team every Dayo all right welcome back to the lockdown Nets podcast on the locked on podcast Network it’s your team the Brooklyn Nets every single day of the week week I am Doug Nori owner operator of dfsr decom rolling through NBA and NFL projections basically every single

Day over there on dfsr if you want a free trial go and grab it now no worries we got you covered for FanDuel and DraftKings no Adam arre on the show today as we work out some New Year’s you know Post New Year scheduling stuff going on we’ll be back in the saddle

Going um paired up for the rest of this week postgame and whatnot thanks for making locked onits your first listen of the day were free and available on all of those great platforms let you know that today’s episode is brought to you by prize pick the easiest and most

Exciting way to play daily fantasy sports go to priz picks.com lock. NBA use the code all overc case locked on NBA for first deposit match up to $100 over there on prize picks all right 2023 in the books 2024 on to bigger and brighter things coming in Nets world uh

I’m not sure and that’s what we’re going to talk about today on the podcast as we break down sort of what this last stretch for the Nets has been like hashtag brutal and try to talk about one you know where the ey test and the analytics meet and this these don’t

Always ways meet because we know obviously with sports we want to have things to disagree about we want to have things to be able to discuss and sometimes ways that you watch can sometimes not line up with the numbers that that might be underlying some of the things that are happening but

Did want to talk about how these last two or three weeks have gone for the Nets and whether or not it’s signal noise you know if it’s going to be something that we can think about continuing on into the new year or whether there are places for the Nets to

Improve in the short term and the long term with this current form uh in a couple days Adam and I will break down sort of like the long-term outlook for the team too because I think that’s going to be important to begin really really taking a fine look at when it

Comes to trade deadline and you know what the plans are for the Nets but wanted to take a look at this last 12 game stretch which I think sort of is the beginning or where the the the Swoon started right so back on December 11th the Nets started a West Coast Road Trip

Uh and they’ just come off three straight wins Orlando Atlanta Washington including a just total blowout of Washington they start the West Coast trip which we knew was going to be tough and there’s been very few things to hang your hat on since then they’ve been

Three and n during that stretch the only three wins were uh the game against Phoenix which got us real excited because obviously it was a uh victory over Kevin Durant and Company every other game has been a loss except for the two wins over Detroit thank goodness

They pulled those off because I’m not even sure where we’d be talking about this team if the Detroit Pistons streak had stopped in those two games against the Nets but they were able to pull those two off and everything else has been losses sometimes very bad losses so

Losses to Sacramento Denver golden State Utah the Knicks uh Denver again Milwaukee Washington and Oklahoma City uh more than half of those games were by double digits um so some of these games really just haven’t even been all that close when it gets when it’s gotten down

To the final the final buzzer and it’s really been uh a very tough stretch here for Nets fans and for the team as well this has been since we’ve been doing the podcast I would say this is one of the longer you know outside of maybe the

Beginning of the SE the ba basketball wise right like not I’m not talking about like you know Kyrie not being able to play and stuff I mean just talking about like on the court stuff outside of maybe the stretch at the beginning of last year where Steve Nash was

Ultimately fired I’m not sure I can remember a worse long stretch for this team since we’ve been doing the podcast that you know that’s four years now so and and that’s just you know thinking about the team every single day and when you dive into the analytics part this is

Partly inspired um Eric Slater over there clutch points had done a little bit of a break breakdown kind of taking a look at where the Nets rankings had gone I went back and just uh did the did the same some of the same work here looking back over where the Nets have

Ranked over these last three or so weeks you know dating Back to December 27th or sorry December 10th and where they’ve really kind of fallen in some key areas that have really kind of just told the story of what’s been happening for this team in the short term and and the short

Term frankly is starting to become the long term right sometimes things that seem like blips end up becoming the actual picture and you start to look at your it’s kind of take a look in the mirror time when it comes to a team and that can be really hard and the Nets are

Pushing dangerously close to that place right now like where they stand right now in terms of the standings where they stand in terms of talent where they stand in sort of like sort of maybe confusion around where the what the team is where the team is going 15 and 18 at

The time of this podcast 9th in the East Bulls are moving up I have to feel like the Hawks with Jaylen Johnson are probably going to make a little bit of a move here we’ll see what happens with the Raptors with the after the RJ Barrett and Emanuel quickly moves not

Really sure I mean you have to think that probably maybe ticks them up but we’ll see regardless it doesn’t change the fact of what’s been happening with this team uh over this stretch and it’s been really really bad so we’ll take a look at some key numbers that have

Signal some drop offs in where like sort of things that were working for the Nets before this time and then after this time so we’ll start with just three-pointers this Nets team had been shooting a lot of Threes over the course of the season and really making a lot of

Threes right like they had ranked uh within the top five in terms of three points attempts and three-point shooting but since December 10th they’ve dropped off pretty considerably in each of these spots they’ve gone down to 15th overall in three-point attempts and they’ve gone all the way down to 23rd overall in

Three-point makes for a team that doesn’t have tons of on ball juice outside of like cam Thomas and at times Mel Bridges besides that like really in terms of on ball creation that doesn’t have a lot of just in the way of just you know just high-end NBA talent and

Getting your own baskets this three-point shooting is critical to where the Nets need to be just in terms of B basically being able to stay afloat like they they have to be able to trading threes for twos as much as possible against other teams the beginning of the season they they were

Doing that they were making their threes Dorian Smith hitting his threes really everyone was hitting I hate to just call out one guy really across the board they were shooting very very well from three that has tailed off and with it has gone basically a lot of their scoring if this

Team is going to drop down into the bottom third in terms of overall three-point makes they are going to have a near impossible time winning it’s just that’s just the way it goes and we’ve seen along with that during this stretch the offensive rating has gone down the

22nd so their bottom third overall in offense based in part on the three-point shooting now in the in the bottom group and just the overall effective field goal percentage really hitting literally Rock Bottom so the offensive rating bad they can’t make their Threes And they also and we’ve seen this in terms of

Like the ey test too we’ve seen them that’s not even be able to finish at The Rim we’ve watched male Bridges Miss layup after layup we’ve seen Nick Laxton missing a lot of shots at The Rim I mean this is a guy who when your Center is

Missing a lot of shots you’re really in trouble because these are the places that your effective field goal percentage can really get a boost the Nets over the last uh since December 10th during this this 12 game stretch the Nets sit dead last in effective field goal percentage dead last worst

Offensive team in terms of effective field goal percentage in the league and that makes sense if you miss all your threes and you miss all your twos then that’s that’s where effective field goal percentage comes in and this is beginning to tell the story of sort of

What’s been happening here now you want to say to yourself well some of these things will regress to the mean some of these guys aren’t going to continue to shoot that bad I can hear that but it’s a very very concerning uh state of turn of events for where this net team has

Gone I have a couple other numbers I want to throw out to you that sort of told the tale over these last two these last 12 games we’ll get to that in a second first gonna tell you about our friends over at prize picks prize picks is daily Fantasy Made so easy that’s

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$100 it’s prize.com lockon NBA use that code locked on NBA first deposit match up to $100 prize picks is daily Fantasy Made Easy all right a couple other numbers where the Nets have uh it’s sort of like beginning to tell the story of what’s been happening with this team over the

Last couple weeks we mentioned the effective field goal percentage mentioned the three-point makes um mentioned just some of this uh just some of the basics that would start to push you into the direction of understanding about like sort of why it’s when you watch the games it’s it it looks so

Brutal on the offensive end it’s been just as bad honestly on defense frankly in some ways it’s been worse on defense than it has been on offense which is really really saying something for a team that s felt like they were going to begin the season maybe even hanging

Their hat on defense with a defensive identity a bunch of guys who had been projected to be just plus Defenders across the board I mean Nick Claxton was in Defensive Player of the Year conversations for last year now those are those are bred more on whether your

Team’s like doing really well or not but still I mean he was up there you know we got him we have Mel Bridges who came over uh from Phoenix with u a defensive reputation Dorian finy Smith the same uh these guys Cameron Johnson these guys that had just brought in what we thought

Was going to be a defensive identity not to mention the additions of Dennis Smith Jr in company uh we thought that’s where it was going to be the defense really the whole season has been horrible and has not has just almost frankly in some ways gotten worse over this stretch over

This um over since December 10th they ranked 28th in defensive rating they rank and and part of this is like a combination of different factors here right so one they rank 28th in steals they don’t generate any steals they they cannot seem to get the ball from the

Other team this is part of what makes it harder for them on the defensive end they just can’t really generate turnovers when you can generate turnovers in the NBA you’re going to have a really hard time because one either you’re going to gamble and miss and the other team’s going to have Easy

Shot or you’re just not even applying the requisite pressure to the ball to like even make things uncomfortable for the other team and we’ve seen this over and over again right with other teams seemingly getting very very easy baskets on the Nets it’s just because they’re just not generating the the on ball

Defense and even just the scheme is not lending itself to uh getting into any lanes getting into ball handlers like they’re just not doing any of those things so the steals rank among the worst in the league like I said at 28th with that defensive uh the defensive

Rating all the way down there their defensive rebounding is 25th in the league they’ve been good on the offensive boards which is like the one thing that’s probably saved them they ranked third in offensive rebounding in this stretch which makes you even more heads scratching about some of the other

Numbers because they’re actually getting rebounds and but just not turning them into anything right like they’re getting on the offensive glass but it doesn’t end up becoming anything doesn’t become like easy baskets at The Rim doesn’t go into like kickout threes it kind of just be nothing it seems like and what we

Talked about on offense is lending itself to what’s happening on defense they are missing their shots so they’re missing all their threes when you miss threes you’re going to get longer rebounds that’s going to lend itself to Fast Break points for their team they’re getting killed in

Transition and they’re not able to stop when you’re not able to stop teams effectively in the half court and not able to stop teams in transition this is what you’re going to get you’re going to get a defensive rating at 28th you’re going to get a net rating of 25th uh the

Opponent’s effective field goal percentage 29th that mean the translation on that one teams are getting super super easy baskets against the Nets they’re hitting their threes and they they’re hitting their threes and they’re getting easy baskets at The Rim right this is where effective field goal percentage effectively comes from

Right because you can get a higher effective field goal percentage by essentially hitting either the easiest shots at the rim and or hitting your threes because threes are just worth 50% more than twos so when you couple those things together add in the transition adding that you’re not generating any

Steals and they just Nets are just having an impossible time on both ends of the Court like this these numbers back up where the it test tells you that just not working it’s just nothing is has really nothing has worked over these last couple weeks outside of those

Detroit Pistons games which they just had to go absolutely all out to make sure that they didn’t lose which is what teams did against the Pistons for a long time right like you don’t want to be the one on the Lost Ledger I actually wonder what the situation looks like if the

Pistons hadn’t been in that situation now I think the Nets probably still take the games but we saw you know at least the second one the Nets had a really fight to make sure they could get over the hump there against this Pistons team who wanted to win now maybe it goes both

Ways Pistons really trying to win that game because you know they want to get themselves off the schneide but in all this has just been a really really a tough stretch and if you’re watching the games and not looking at any numbers which a lot of you do out there and I

You know go for it not there’s no I’m not telling you to look at some of these you know different just basis points and these by the way a lot of these stats are not really even I would even call them analytics they’re just basic stats

That kind of tell you the story I know sometimes folks want to you know kind of be like you know analytics versus high test these AR even really analytics it’s like I don’t know do you get offensive rebounds that’s an eye test thing we can just see that right do you get defensive

Rebounds do you get steals right these are just these numbers are just putting together things your eyes are already seeing anyway I hesitate to even call it analytics it’s it’s really not it’s just like the basics of how NBA is generated ball go in ball don’t go in right you

Know get the ball from The A Team don’t get the ball from The A Team so I don’t even know if we’re D doing all that deep of a dive into the numbers here to just to let everyone sort of know the that the numbers community and the itest

Community can actually meet here in the middle and say it’s been bad man it’s been so so bad and um oh and one more thing the opponent’s uh turnover percentage the Nets ranked 27th and that that just kind of goes along with the steals uh with with the steals part

Right so like they’re just not they’re not the Nets just aren’t generating anything in the way of making it very difficult on the other team right they’re not making really making the other team Sweat Right on the defensive end or on the offensive end like these

Aren’t really and this is what leads to these double digit losses right like yeah some of these are good teams obviously right OKC is an awesome team you losing to OKC is not a look in the mirror moment for your team you know going in facing the thunder in Oklahoma

City is not you don’t come out of that and like look in the mirror and be like not like like how how we kind of looked at the Washington game be like what is going on here folks or the Charlotte game right which might have been a sign

That like maybe things were could could go off the rails kind of easily those are the look in the mirror games OKC is not that it’s a culmination of a run that’s been really tough happens to fall in December 31st so you can kind of close out the year narratively uh and

Look at say that’s how they end 20123 so it ends it makes for a nice well not nice it makes for a book end uh rather than being game that you really want to take that much from but it re but in the end it was a big it ends up becoming a

Very similar part of the story right they go in they get trounced they can’t stop anything you know OKC gets up a ton of Threes makes them all OKC gets at the basket makes them all that’s when the offensive rebound the game still get crushed right like that game exemplified

A lot of the things that we’re already talking about here with where this team is that these numbers just aren’t going to line up in ways where you’re going to be able to generate wins and that’s a concern going into the rest of this year right like we are heading into a season

Of the trade deadline we’re heading into maybe a time where the Nets are going to need to make some highlevel macro decisions about their team and it’s interesting to look at these numbers and try to think to yourself what Shawn marks what Jack vaugh and the rest of

The team is really saying to themselves right now in terms of where things can land so take a quick look here about what can happen over these next couple weeks that might change the course for the Nets we’ll get into that here in a second all right before we get into that

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NBA all right 2024 here we come Nets this is is is this going to be the year year of the Nets I can’t even say it’s kind of sounds silly to even say uh I’m not really sure the Nets are definitely at a crossroads right now like I said Adam

And I will get into um maybe like sort of the state of the team stuff going into this year where the different directions the team can end up taking over the course of these next months and maybe the part of the but in the short term I mean can we

Expect that this kind of downswing is going to continue for the Nets now on the one hand I’d say you know no because we have a track record from the beginning of the year that shows the Nets can can play a different style of basketball that has been able to

Generate wins the same time New Orleans Houston OKC again they get Portland Portland been kind of Scrappy at times here they get Cleveland uh they’re you know they’re obviously going over to Paris here for that trip and then back against Miami Portland then La so they have that Paris trip in

There I don’t know if that’s a good thing or a bad thing for the team they you know they take an extended rest because they only play one game in essentially a week’s time but it involves travel to Europe so maybe that’s like a reset moment for the team

I’m not really sure how to evaluate situations like that again like getting essentially a week to only play one game in a week I have to even with the travel I have to believe that that’s a good thing for the team because they play the January 7th against Portland then it’s

Four days they play Cleveland then it’s another four days and it’s Miami so from the seventh from the eighth to the 14th so six total days they get one game that’s a that could be a PL a spot for the Nets to sort of like stop take stock

Get some rest even with time zone changes blah blah blah blah blah like they’ll be able and that’s like frankly not that big of a deal for this amount of time like there’s just no I I think that could be one place where we can

Like point to and say oh this is a good situation for the Nets to be able to get this right like they’re going to get get to play fewer games in that stretch than most other teams so I think that’s like one spot we can look in say okay maybe

That’s a nice spot to rest their legs they have had a lot of games here they’ve been playing they’ve had to play back toback you know the Detroit Milwaukee back toback uh they had the Denver Detroit back toback like four games before they’ve played a lot of

Games like during that that 12 game stretch they played a lot of games in very very few days that that and that that hurts and and plus games in tough conditions like in Denver like in Utah places that are just not overall easy to

Play so you want to look at that and say okay maybe they got dealt sort of a bum hand with the scheduling and that’s a reason to kind of be a little more positive for the time forward I can see that plus the sort of the scheduling Gap

That they get for going overseas I think that’s going to help them as well some of this stuff you can also we can point to a little bit and say hey some of this stuff could regress back like the three-point shooting the three-point shooting is one of those things that can

Be lumpy at times I think we could easily look at that and get another 10 game stretch where the Nets just make some more of these threes and it’s a totally different situation sometimes basketball does get that easy not really it’s not easy to hit your shots and

Maybe the Nets just aren’t bred to be an awesome three-point shooting team just based on their personnel but I think there’s a world where we could see some of those numbers come back in onto the sort of positive side of that luck Arena and and we have a different feeling

About the Nets so I think those are like two maybe easy places to look and say in the short term maybe this can get a little better for the Nets clearly they need to pick out an identity with this team about where they want to go with rotations they do have fiveman lineups

That have worked over the course of the season I was looking uh before the Spencer dwy Bridges cam Johnson uh DFS sharp five man combo is I mean it’s only 60 minutes it’s the best net rating combo in the whole league right now so maybe you want to think hey maybe we

Should get more Dron sharp minutes in here for Claxton and that’s going to be a positive thing the cam Thomas situation continues to be a head scratcher I’m not sure that irons itself out in this in this term I I don’t really know how to I really don’t if you

Listen to yesterday’s show I don’t really know how to evaluate that situation properly um I think it’s really impossible to know sort of like everyone’s feelings and if everyone’s on the same page with where Cam Thomas is so I know there’s people out there that’re going to be like hey play cam

Thomas a lot more and maybe that will lead to wins and I think there’s going to be a group that’s going to say Hey you know don’t play him as much and you know it’s not like doesn’t generate winning basketball I don’t fall into that side of it but you know I’m not

Sure that there’s like super amazing Clarity around that situation I think we can we hopefully can in the short term stop seeing like Spencer deny and cam Thomas combinations because that’s been a stone cold losing way for the Nets like they been total train wreck on defense hopefully we see fewer of those

Combinations going forward I think we’ll still continue to see some mix and match opportunities uh for the for the different lineups they are going to get Lonnie Walker back hopefully pretty soon here maybe that lends a little juice Off the Bench the Ben Simmons situation I don’t even know where we are we’re

Probably due for an update on Ben Simmons within the next four to five days there’s been no news and no news with that stuff is typically either just still no news or not great news but you know maybe there’s a world where you see Simmons coming back I still don’t really

Put you know take a lot of stock in that I think clearly him coming back at like full strength old Ben Simmons would be a positive I think there’s no argument against that I just don’t hold out a lot of hope that it’s gonna happen so like I

Said just to go back to some of that scheduling stuff some of the shooting I do think there’s worlds where like some of that stuff just improves a little bit and they’re able to steal a few of the a couple of these games I think that sometimes evaluating teams at their

Lowest is not always or it’s often not the best strategy because you’re only going to you you’re just too anchored in the negativity and the bad stuff that you’ve seen most recently and I really all want to caution about always doing that because it just doesn’t lend itself

It just doesn’t lend itself to good analysis as evidenced like you know three weeks ago four weeks ago we were like Hey we’re doing podcasts about how good the Nets were and then it went bad it can swing the other way very quickly sometimes and and sports are just we

Have literally Infinity examples of that kind of stuff happening over the years but so anyway I do think there are little ways that things can improve here in the shortterm term this doesn’t this doesn’t factor in again like sort of the macro ideas around this team about

Whether they should be buyers at the trade deadline whether they should be sellers of the trade deadline if some guys are going to be here and some guys aren’t like which guys they should lock into for long-term contracts like that’s a bigger discussion that Adam and I will

Have over the course of these next week or two or couple weeks as we get you know more information about the team start to see the landscape of buyers and sellers across the league and try to dive into like really what the next plan should be because right now I don’t say

This has been a bad stretch you know from fan engagement not in fan engagement I every people out there are still listening obviously I mean more like feelings about the team it’s been look this is hard man three and nine over a 12 game stretch it’s hard as a

Fan to to watch stretches like this and feel like it’s going to get better but I do think there are some ways where it can over the short term okay we will be back again tomorrow following the game against New Orleans so that’s the game’s

At 8 so we’ll be here late on Tuesday evening live episode win or lose against Zion Williamson CJ MCC Brandon Ingram and the Pelicans no worries there Adam will be back in the saddle for that one also in the meantime make sure you subscribe over on YouTube We’re climbing

There towards 7,000 subscribers on YouTube let’s see where we are I’ll do a quick check in right now yeah yeah over 6,500 right now let’s get to 7,000 let’s get to 8,000 by the end of 200 is that realistic 2024 no let’s say 9,000 at the

End of 2024 just G to throw a random number out there help you part of that group make sure you subscribe over on YouTube subscribe here listen to podcast as well look this is how we uh this how we pay the bills right it’s free for you

All you got to do is subscribe to those two places totally free helps us out a lot get to the end of this episode always forget to get one of the great uh poets excuse me the quotes from The Great American poets that’s Adam arm’s deal so we say looking forward to Great

American poet Adam arre being back tomorrow following the Pelicans game we’ll back again then talking more Brooklyn Nets basketball

The Nets are 3-9 over their last 12 and have played some pretty bad basketball in that stretch. Just what is going wrong with this team and where have they really fallen off?

The Locked on Nets crew looks at key statistical areas for the Nets over these games to see where they’ve dropped considerably and the spots that have been major problems.

Is there hope for the team going into 2024? Possibly. But it will take them improving in the areas they can excel.

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