FADE Joel Embiid & Philadelphia 76ers vs Jalen Brunson & New York Knicks? NBA Picks | Buckets

FADE Joel Embiid & Philadelphia 76ers vs Jalen Brunson & New York Knicks? NBA Picks | Buckets

Welcome to buckets brought to you by B MGM the king of sports books my name is Matt Moore I’m the senior NBA writer for the Action Network I’m joined tonight by my old friend my good friend my co former colleague you know him from the ringer gambling show Raheem Palmer

Raheem what’s good my man life is good I can’t complain you know we cashed on that first half over on the Milwaukee Bucks and the San Antonio Spurs night so that was pretty good so just trying to have a good year I um my the whole

Action crew was on Spurs I stayed away from it because I had a rough Wednesday and was just like I need to like sit out for a night uh everything I had said Spurs and I was just like I don’t want to I don’t want to bet on the Spurs in

In any sort of spot but um that was a that was a good hit for Joe deera and the rest of the crew want let you know that everything we talk about today could be found the award-winning Action Network out you can find all sorts of

Great ways to keep track of your bet as well as you’re going to find all sorts of information on our Pro Tab I’ve been using that lately to track where the signals indicate the money is and you can also tell things like Hey where’s the money and then what money has moved

The line right so like sometimes money comes in the line doesn’t move and that’s telling uh and you can use that information to make yourself a better better a smarter better find that in the Action Network app also make sure to check out uh our YouTube page youtube.com theaction network you catch

All of our live shows all of our recorded shows all of our podcast Clips all sorts of picks on there check it out just go to youtube.com theaction network just search The Action Network on YouTube and you’re going to find lots of stuff to check out uh you can find

Raheem on the ringer gambling show on East Coast bias as well as all over that feed throughout both the NFL and NBA as well as doing boxing coverage raheem’s doing so much over at the ringer so my thanks for Raheem for coming on short notice with sea little is at a wedding

In Mexico because that’s how uh so Sean Sean’s hanging out in Mexico Sunday night uh want to let you know Sunday night’s going to be the future Jays and me we’re going to do like a big Awards thing we’re just going to hit all of the awards it’s Janu it’s

The first of January first of the month and we’re going to hit all the major Awards you can check that out and get some actionable plays for the future tonight uh we’re recording this on Thursday night we’re gonna hit on Best Bets for Friday and then I want to ask

Rahee about teams that he thinks are or are not betable for the NBA title as we sit here on January 4th 2024 so we’ll get that started but first we’re going to do some Best Bets Raheem I know that you were telling me before the show came

On that you don’t have anything firmed up as far as like actual bets yet you want to dig deeper into the board because we got so many games two games on Thursday 14 games on Friday because that makes sense um but you do have some leans can you list your leans

For me and then we’ll go back through and do the cap okay my leans are Toronto Raptor Sacramento Kings over 238 I also lean towards the New York Knicks and I also lean towards the New York Knicks Philadelphia 76ers over 226 okay um you got one more that I’m

Going to talk you into because I’m I’m with you on it I was actually on the other side and you mentioned it and I remembered something and we’ll uh we’ll be on the other side of it that is Portland jail Blazers plus 10 and a half

That’s G be one of mine uh I’m on Houston Rockets plus three and a half and on the money line versus the Minnesota Timberwolves a rare occasion for me to fade the Minnesota Timberwolves this season uh I’m on the Miami Heat plus four versus the Phoenix

Suns I am trying to I guess catch a falling knife a little bit with the Suns and how hot they’ve been I’m also taking the Los Angeles Lakers minus four and a half versus the Memphis Grizzlies those are going to be my Best Bets for this

Slate uh let’s go ahead and start with yours let’s talk about Kings Toronto over 238 and a half what do you have this projected at okay so I have this projected at I have this like around 240 241 or so I think the biggest thing is

That I’m not quite sure the market is really capturing what Toronto is right now obviously you trade a great defensive player like ogan anobi and you lose a lot defensively and then you finally have a guy and Emanuel quickley who can really get his own shot so I

Love that but then you look at the Sacramento Kings we know that they’re G to be top 10 in Pace they’re going to push the pace they’re not a good defensive team so I expect this to be attract me so I look at this game and you look look at torronto Raptors the

Last two two games they had two games since the trade they gave up you know 121 points to the Cavs they gave up 100 and 11 points to the Grizzlies but this Grizzlies team is not a top tier offensive team so I feel like they’re going to score better and

They’re going to give up points so I really like that over the over in Kings games at home is 12 and six this season so a good spot there um I’ve got this projected for 245 and a half so I’m going to go with you

And I’m with you on this bet even though betting Toronto rap l man I did this on BET stream I talked about this one there’s just been a number of games of season where I’ve taken overs on the Raptors and the game just gets weird like it just gets weird and sometimes

It’s the Raptors offense dying like versus uh Miami where when it was they scored 37 points in the second half um there’s just been random like they’ll sometimes clamp down the opponent but the OG factor I think is a huge I think it’s a great cap of this team might just

Be way more of an offensive Squad than they were prior to the trade they added offensive Firepower they added another ball handler that makes their team more Dynamic and they got worse defensively that combine with the trend and I’ve got the number projected I’m with you let’s

Take the 238 and a half over let’s ride um Nicks you like the Knicks over in that game versus the Sixers what’s the cap on that one well when I look at my number for this game it is like right on the number 226 and the Knicks supposedly have

Gotten better defense L but you look at the fact that they’ve lost a Mitchell Robinson like they’re in a bad position against a Joel MB and I I look at this game and I see a game where you’re going to probably see a lot of fouls

Like so to me I just think the Knicks are shooting the three well we know the Sixers can score the Sixers are third in offensive rating this will probably be a close game down the stretch so I just think 226 is l too low in today’s NBA

Between these two teams okay um all right let’s get some mind let’s start with that Mavericks and Portland game so you kind of brought this one up as a lean and um I will say before we go before we before we move on I kind of

Lean towards the Knicks too um so like that was yeah that was that was one of my leans I think I have this at around five and I do think the Knicks have improved so I like I’m seeing a team to me that is probably being a little bit

Undervalue so I like I would lean towards the next like I would probably bet that this closes Sixers minus five as opposed to we’re I think you’re seeing six six and a half now yeah um I’ve got it 8.7 based off of how good the Sixers have been at home I don’t

Want to try and get in front of the the the Sixers at home right now like I think they’re a road team that you can look for certain spots based off of the power rating but they’re so good at home uh I want to kind of stay away from that

One so far but I understand why you’re kind of there it’ll be interesting to see how they look with the OG Obi was we get more games under the belt also uh just as a heads up I did write today on the Knicks and their continued interest in Carl Anthony towns make sure

To check that out on the Action Network and in the app um so the Mavericks are 10 and a half Point favorites versus the Trailblazers and there’s like you know full strength I think that this is absolutely a play on the Mavericks um but this number is a little

Bit ridiculous based off of the fact that Derrik Lively is out um the Lively is not a player that’s going to move the needle Raheem in terms of the spread but he should he’s the second most important player on the Mavericks and the numbers have been pretty Stark with him on and

Off court and with him available and not uh this number does not reflect that and once I realized that Lively was out I flipped from like oh I’m gonna bet Mavericks to oh I’ve got to bet Portland at double digits without Lively yeah that I mean that immediately

Stood out Lively being out Grant Williams being out it’s just it’s a small team and the fact these teams just played the other day and this line was 11 and then you come back and it’s pretty much the same line and you’re missing your key big I just think that

Says a lot and I just think they’re being the Blazers are being undervalue here as long as they have Simons as long as they have sharp I just think they’re they’re a formidable team against pretty much anybody on any given night and I just don’t think they’re the team that they

We saw earlier in the year that it’s just going to get beat down so I I like them to to kind of keep this one closer so without Lively they’re one in five straight up and one and five against the spread uh their one cover and win was versus the Spurs and they

Were at home in that one and they were um they were eighto favorites and they won by a bazillion they scored 144 points it was 144 119 um they covered that one with ease and Portland is closer to the Spurs than they are to the other teams they face without Lively

Like the other teams they face without Lively were the Raptor who are not great um who are not great but are still decent the Clippers who are good the Nuggets who are good the Clippers again who are decent uh and the rockets on the road and so like this is kind of the

Trap here is it’s possible the Mavericks maybe just be able to beat up on a bad Blazers team especially a Blazers team missing some guys but without Lively I I just I am going to trust that one and five and think this is too many points I

Just think Lively should be worth way more more to the spread um than what he is going to be able to be like there’s never going to be a move on a power rating for a rookie Center who is scoring single figures like it’s just not or you know low double Figures it’s

Never going to be it’s never going to account for that the power rating can’t catch up to it so I think this is a good spot to catch the Spurs plus 10 and a half um my favorite play for the night is probably Rockets plus three and a

Half versus The Wolves so for starters um you know this game I do have it uh projected under I’ve got the rocket projected as a favorite in this game based off of how good they’ve been at home that’s mostly just a standard power rating for home court this is four and a

Half so it goes the other way but the Rockets have been so good at home minus 170 then I wanted to see I I asked myself I was like okay does does Houston contend well when they’re facing teams that are really good defensively because um they’re a team obviously that’s

Better defensively than offensively the wolves are better defens L than offensively so I was kind of curious like how do the Rockets do when they face teams that are kind of built similar to them and that they’re really great defensive teams uh regardless of their offense and surprisingly this

Season the Rockets are six and five straight up versus top 10 defenses but the bigger thing here is they have a plus 3.5 spread differential ATS margin versus top 10 defenses per clean in the glass so to me this is a great spot the wolves have kind of admitted they’re not playing

Well like they’ve they’ve been talking about that like we’re just kind of playing like right now this is not a good spot for them to get even in that kind of scenario so um you look at that combined with the fact that um there’s some trends that that go heavily towards

The Rockets here I want to be on the under but the number I is too low for me to be able to get into this one so I am going to go ahead and grab this one um they a couple of advantages here for the Rockets as well the Rockets have an an

Offensive rebound advantage and in those kind of situations those teams this season are 43 and 33 against the spread um and the rockets take more threes than the Wolves attempt they attempt more threes than their opponent uh those teams the season 39 and 27 against the spread so um they’re among the teams

There’s some Trends here that lean in their favor as well so I’m going to take the rockets and grab them uh plus three and a half and I’m gonna take him on the money line versus the Minnesota Timberwolves I I’m not mad at it like I think I’m I’m still struggling with this

This Rockets team at times yeah just because they just feel like a team that I want to back against a bad team but against teams above 500 I’m I’m I’m a little scared of them but the fact that this number is three it it says a lot my

Model actually kind of makes this a pick them but I mean I just like I have different models so I have one model that just has it a pick them I have one that has it minus three and a half so it’s just like it’s kind of it’s kind of

A stay away from me okay uh I’ve got heat plus four in this one the heat are going to be without Jimmy Butler and that’s obviously like a big loss for them but they’ve been they’ve gone six and four straight up six and four against the spread this season without

Butler in the lineup so they’ve managed to to be okay without him um even with how the Suns now suns are red hot I’m trying to get in front of a very good Sun’s team as of late and they’re at home I I I totally get that but I do

Have this projected with the heat should be favored the Heat have been better overall for the course of the Season Uh Kevin Durant still questionable for this one and that’s enough for me to go ahead and get on board with taking the the uh Miami Heat in the spot I I

Think this one I’m gonna probably play a half unit on because I don’t want to commit a full with the Suns where it might just be like you’re G to get Roll by a very very good suddenly Suns team however I will also say this um the heat

Averaged fewer turnovers than the Suns and when the Suns face teams like that when teams face these these opponents that are less it’s 37 and 23 for the top bottom five teams in uh turnover margin so that’s uh 62% against the spread this season uh there’s a lot of matchups here

I like I think the heat are good in these environments on the rad we saw that the other night versus the Lakers so I’ll grab the four with the Miami Heat on the road versus the Suns you know I I agree with this and look are we sure the suns are even good

Like they beat the Rockets they beat the Hornets they beat the magic they beat the Blazers like to me they haven’t proved anything and if Kevin Durant isn’t playing I think you’re gonna get the best of it so I agree with this one okay and my last one is pretty simple it’s

Lakers minus four and a half it’s a model it’s a model play I’ve got the number with an edge on the Lakers and if you throw in one very big factor this is the Grizzlies they hate this team this is their this is their get this this is

Such a good spot for the Lakers right Darin ham is there’s this there’s uh tension in the locker room and disconnect via sham Shania of the athletic of of in the locker room of Darin ham and what are the Lakers goingon to do and they’re so bad like this is a low

Point and you got a Memphis team that had a little bit of a bump when jaw came back and then has gone back to being pretty shitty and they’re just not very good and you’re telling me it’s four and a half like that number doesn’t make any

Sense to me like you still cannot power r this team in Memphis is anything close close to a zero so I don’t know what number you’re giving the Lakers for home court here but I’ve got them as significant favorites in this spot with how good the Lakers have been at home

And they have been they’ve been really good especially versus bad teams guess what the Grizzlies are a bad team on a third and four nights I’ll take I’ll take the Los Angeles Lakers minus four and a half here yeah I have this one rated pretty highly as well and I

Thought about this one but for some reason I just kind of just wanted to pull back on it just because it a lot of times when things look too easy for me I’m just I get a little I get a little skeptical but this does feel like The Bu

Low spot for the Lakers especially when you consider like what what did the the Memphis Grizzlies do they’ve lost four out of their last five games and the Lakers they have the Clippers coming up next and we know the Clippers pretty much own this Lakers team so I think if

There’s a get right spot it’s now on a Friday night I actually thought about the under for this game because yeah you look at the fact that the Grizzlies they can’t score efficiently and I think that’s that’s the biggest thing like even over the last two weeks they’re scoring 110

Points per on possession so this could be like a a real defensive minded game where it’s like really a rock fight yeah I can see that happening for sure um it’ll be interesting to kind of see like what the how this team reacts to it it’s funny you mentioned like those two

Easy spots uh that was the OKC being a one-point dog to the Hawks the other night where I was like what is this number number like this is such a dumb number I don’t care it was right it was right after the like I actually had the

I had OKC against the the Celtics yeah so to me it was just like all right if I if I’m betting them in that spot I am not betting them the following night knowing that they’re taking on a bad Atlanta Hawks team so it’s either you know just sell or just stay

Away it’s so tough because I think if if you have a projection and it’s just telling you that there’s this huge Edge on a game like you should trust it like over the long run if you trust your your your model and it’s performed well enough for

You to to use it um that you should trust that you’ve got an edge even if the number is way off but this was such a situational like scream because there was just no reason for the Hawks to be a onepoint favorite like there was no

Scenario and yet they win that game like it’s just wild you know what the problem is I think there’s a balance between trusting your projection and trusting the bookmaker so you look at this game tonight and it’s it’s on right now so I the Nuggets were laying two and a half I

Spoke to a number of people they’re laying two and a half to the Warriors and right now as we we record this podcast the Warriors are up 114 one 103 with eight minutes to go in the fourth quarter most people I spoke to they had the Nuggets model at around minus four

Yeah so like the the sharps are going to jump on it the Public’s gonna jump on it meanwhile the bookmaker they put up an opening line of nuggets minus two and a half and it’s I don’t like to say trap but they’re kind of letting you know

That the the disparity is not as wide as people think it is in a regular season game yeah um all right so those are our Best Bets just to run those down real quickly uh raheem’s gotta lean on Kings Toronto over 238 and a half he likes the

Knicks on the spread versus the Sixers as well as the over in niick Sixers 228 I think is the number on that one yeah actually went up in the time in the time that we started this podcast it went up listening in on us as always uh I like

Blazers plus 10 and a half heat plus four Lakers minus four and a half and the Houston Rockets plus three and a half and on the money line versus the Minnesota Timberwolves uh ra you know it’s it’s a start of the year and we are now we’re coming up on the halfway point

Of the Season people don’t realize that the halfway point comes in January not All-Star uh so I think it’s a good time to just kind of take a look at the at the Futures Market the title market and kind of get a sense of who are we trusting and who are we not

Um you’re not a big future is better for especially for the title you pick your spots a lot more evenly but I do kind of want to think about like if we’re looking at the market over B MGM the king of sports books and we’re looking at opportunities uh Celtics are the

Favorite to win the NBA championship at plus 325 no shock there nuggets are second at plus 425 no shock there bucks are plus 450 the suns are are 11 to1 the Clippers are 12 to one the Sixers are 12 to1 the wolves are 18 to one the Lakers

Are 20 to1 the Oklahoma City Thunder second best in the Western Conference no respect for the young pups at 22 to1 they have worse odds than the Lakers to win the NBA title Dallas Mavericks are 30 to1 gold Golden State Warriors 35 to1 Miami Heat 35 to1 uh Kings 40 to1

Cavaliers 50 to1 Nicks 50 to1 which I think is still very interesting um let’s start here okay I have made the argument and I think I will continue to which is that I don’t know if I want Celtics title Futures even though it presents an opportunity to hedge against them I

Don’t think the number gets longer between here and the playoffs like I think they’re a team that we are going to see like maybe plus 200 plus 250 by the time that we get to um the start of the playoffs you can usually get still a pretty good number even on the

Favorites they’ve shown a lot and I like that that how they look when porzingis is with them that they have this different Dynamic I still have so many questions from their coaching perspective about how their offense falls apart late in games porzingis is health and availability I think for me I am willing

To lose the value on the 325 and just bet them series by series and roll it over because I do like this team I think I I you know we R and I talked about we thought they were going to win we thought they we love they’re

Over 55 and a half and they’re going to probably looks like they’re going to cruise over that I like this team I think they’re a better team than they’ve been years past I think porzingis and Drew holiday give them a new Dynamic but I haven’t seen there’s nothing really that they can do

In the regular season to make them a bet for me to win the NBA title even it’s not even really about the number it’s not even like well they’re the favorite so it’s low it’s like look 325 is still pretty good for the best team in in the

NBA but I still I want to bet them series by series because I want to limit my exposure to them specifically I think that’s a fair case I mean for me it’s the number is not juicy enough yeah I think you I think you’ll do better but I I agree with the

Entire case that you made it’s Ping’s Health it’s the fact that their offense falls apart and you know people say hear me say on Twitter all the time that I think your offense is your floor now and that’s why I’m not giving up on the Bucks just because I think offense

Really matters and as as much as Everyone likes Tatum and as much as everybody likes Brown those guys haven’t made the leap yet yeah like to me Tatum is right below that top tier and I need him to be top tier because you see at the end of games it’s always a struggle

So I agree with your assessment 100% um the Bucks are a no bet for me right now that doesn’t mean I won’t get there I need to do the next piece of analysis I think I’m going to do is I’m going to take a look at what their

Defense I’ll talk about this on Sunday show um I want to take a look at what their defensive rating is when they’re not playing the Pacers because I realized that part of my I’m serious because like part of my perception of why they of their defense being so

Shitty is that I keep watching the Pacers just roast them and maybe that’s just a matchup problem I need to look at them but I mean I say that but the Spurs put up a big number on them like the offense is really good you know and we talked about that offensive floor

Right and like that’s kind of the argument I was on BET stream last night and I started the show talking about like hey their offensive floor like maybe this team is underrated and by the end of the show I was back to look at this defense I can’t bet this

Team to win the title like I I don’t trust the role players I don’t think as much as I used to I don’t trust I the biggest thing for me honestly is I’ll just say this like look if Adrien Griffin shows me in the playoffs that he’s a way better playoff coach than

Regular season then I’ll bet them then like I’ll bet them in the middle of the playoff series to win the title if Adrien Griffin can show me I have so many questions about this they’ve had like the the the veterans have had to correct him on so much stuff have had to change

So much stuff and they’re not really making but like they’re winning games but the the resume the under the hood they don’t look like a championship team to me and I wonder if they had never won in 2021 if Katie’s foot wasn’t on the line if you know the Suns don’t

Implode all these types of things like look I I love that Bucks team they’re a lot of fun like I love this group but I just kind of wonder how much of the championship pedigree we’re giving them and whether or not this team with this coach really has it the bucks right now

Are no bet for me even though you’re getting plus 450 for a team that is absolutely stacked in terms of of talent I mean when you go back and look at historically how championship teams perform there’s only been three team like since 1976 there’s only been three

Teams that win a title having a defensive rating that ranks outside of the top 10 yep it’s the 2018 Warriors the 01 Lakers 95 Rockets those teams could you know they flipped the switch and but the one thing I will say is that there have been like 13 teams which have

Lost in the finals that had a defensive rating lower than 10th and most of those have come in the last five years yeah so I think we’re seeing a a bit of a shift to where offense means more but at some point you got to be able to stop some

When you’re giving up 118 offensive rating to this Spurs team and game is getting lit up by every like he’s getting lit up by me you and Brandon Anderson at this point like I don’t know what to say so like I definitely don’t want any Bucs Futures at all to be fair

Brandon hesi is really good um the Sixers to me are the BET like if you’re looking for a BET right now Sixers plus 500 F Well I go a and take the 12 the 12 to win the title because they match up they match up better with Denver than I

Think anybody else does um the Sixers are are the team and look that’s coming from somebody that has consistently profited by fading Joel and this playoff spots like I have not believed in how he performs in playoff series the thing here is that if you ask me who’s

The best coach in the Eastern Conference playoff picture it’s Eric spola if you ask me who the second best coach is in the Eastern Conference playoff picture it’s Nick nurse and he brings such a different like he’s got he’s a problem solver he’s not a Feelgood make every VI

He’s not a Vibes guy Nick nurse is not a Vibes guy he’s business in basketball and that’s good for them because I think honestly this team needs a little bit of ruthlessness in terms of its approach and tactician and I trust him more to solve things like how to

Attack Milwaukee’s soft defense or how to really take advantage of the of Boston’s tendency to stall out offensively and so even though we have embiid I think I trust nurse to find ways to not how can I put this I think nurse will find ways to keep Joel from

Failing the way that he has in these postseasons and like Sixers fans will yell about the injuries and that’s okay like he’s had he’s definitely been banged up for sure and maybe that’s the the thing here like maybe it was just injuries maybe this year he’s not maybe

He manages his body because he’s not playing any tough teams on the road this year apparently and maybe that gets him to a spot where he’s able to stay healthy for the playoffs but if we look at Talent shooting size defense Rim protection at Rim threo percentage and then the

Ability to solve problems with coaching the Sixers have to be the best value in the Eastern Conference I’m absolutely not betting the Sixers and I don’t know if I’m scarred but for me when I look I could be scar because that game six broke me yeah it

Really did but but when I look at this roster your third leading score is Tobias Harris yeah they to me they don’t have enough guys and at some point yeah I just if they had one more guy who I could trust to be the third will you and

I you and I are in that that Oceans 11 scene where where I’m sitting next to you being like you want one more okay we’ll get one more um I will tell you that they they have had conversations with a number of teams continuingly about to

Buas um I don’t know who they wind up with but some teams I think that are interested um are Detroit and Sacramento are two teams that I think would be willing to take on Tobias so you maybe that’s bonovich right it it it it just has to

Be somebody because right now it’s Joel and be’s average 35 Tyrese Maxi’s avering 25 and you have Tobias Harris Kelly UB and Anthony M like you look across at the Celtics Derek white can give you a monster game and I just don’t I’m not seeing that so to me it’s just

That’s scary and then another factor is that and I always say this and people don’t like it because I’m from Philadelphia and I’m I’m a Sixers fan the Sixers and Joel embiid are like Mike Tyson they’re a bully they’re 16 and two against teams below 500 and seven and

Eight against teams above 500 so when are you going to dominate these good teams so between them not having a third guy and them not being able to just beat up good teams I don’t trust them yeah I I get it I do think there’s there’s a

Couple of things here one I actually think they’re more likely to make a trade given how good they are um there’s this idea amongst fans and media that like they’ve got to make a trade because things are bad teams never want to make make a trade when things are bad like

They don’t ever want to trade from positions of weakness you want to trade from positions of opportunity I think the Sixers know that they’ve got an opportunity to be able to put together a a serious Championship run so um I still think there’s probably pretty good value I’m probably gonna bet this actually

It’s Sixers 12 to one to win the title uh in the I guess the only other team I’ve already already got another position on them I will just say like look I don’t think the heat are dead till you you beat him four times yeah the Knicks are an interesting one I

Think OG like OG is the perfect kind of addition for them like a wing Defender who can uh shoot and give them another Dynam like I think this team’s gonna especially when they get Mitchell Robinson back if they get Mitchell Robinson back that’s a sketchy situation

But if they get Mitch back like they could be really awesome if they add Donovan Mitchell if they add Carl Anthony towns if they add um I heard I heard that they made a call for a certain Western conference Allstar um who plays in Phoenix and we’re we’re

Swiftly rebuffed on those off oh my God but like they’re trying to add those guys right and so like the Knicks are an interesting you know they could be way better by the end of the season I just still don’t know they’re they’re kind of the opposite of the Celtics in

That I want to bet them game series by series because I think I’ll still get very good prices on them as a dog like I want to bet them as like a dog in these series I think they’ll upset him and I’ll be looking for opportunities to

Kind of get there I think there’s a chance for them to do that but I want to wait and kind of bet them I think series by series instead of a long series play the Heat are the opposite of that where it’s like I want to bet I already bet

Them preseason I may bet them again at 35 to one and just set it forget it and know that I bet them I Amy heat and I’ve given them the adequate respect with my bank roll yeah I to me as as far as the Eastern Conference is definitely the

Heat and that guy from UCLA Jamie Jaz is ha is I love H hawz is unfreaking believable he’s so good at so many things he fills in the Gap in so many areas and it’s just like at this point like night toight if Jimmy Butler is out I’m not worried

About the heat anymore yeah yeah and I just think if Butler’s healthy for the postseason you just need him healthy for that that stretch and they’re good yeah uh in the west the only team I trust is the Denver Nuggets I still think he’ll get a better price on them at some point

Like if the Wolves secure the one seed that like this number is essentially projecting the Nuggets will overtake like and the division is still tilted that way right like the Wolves aren’t favorites to win the division so this is projecting the the Nuggets to finish

With the the one seed if they don’t get the one seed you’ll get a better price than the nuggets on this at plus 425 so you can wait um I will probably bet them at some point to be able to get there um suns are a no bet the defense is too bad

The chemistry is too bad I can’t trust Beal you you know they can put together a really good run and KD is awesome and Booker is awesome I don’t love the the team composition um for me the team in the west is the Clippers it’s I’m

Willing to get hurt again I bet them for the division I am I am back in I ready to get hurt again I really do think this team has something they’re a they’re a more complete team they have figured out who they need to be they’re plus 1200 I

Actually like them a little bit more to win the West at plus 650 I think they’re like nuggets fans are extreme ex confident versus the Clippers because they’ve owned them for years and I keep trying to be like guys this is a little bit of a different team like you were

Down 3-1 kaai and PG and this is a much different and better team um I actually kind of like the Clippers at plus 650 yeah I love the Clippers and I can’t quit James Haren at all and the fact that you have like the antithesis of him

In kawhai Leonard and that James Haron he can handle all the regular season stuff he can get Kawai to the finish line and then Kawai just has to take the Baton and finish it in the postseason and now I just think their offense is not going to bog down because you have a

Legitimate playmaker now yeah and we know we know from last postseason James Haron can filling those gaps he won two games against the Boston Celtics by himself two 40o game winners so he just has to fill in the Gap with Kawai so I just think the 14 to1 the Clippers is

Tremendous value now if there’s another team that I think still has value I actually gave this out at 100 to one Oklahoma City Thunder now I don’t think I don’t think they’re going to win the title but I think they’re going to be good enough to where you’re going to be

Able to hedge out of it or you’re going to I mean some of these books have cash outs you’re going to that’s not gonna be 23 to1 by the time the postseason starts and if they ended up in the Western Conference Finals it wouldn’t shock me

Yeah I think it’s interesting to kind of like look at because you are kind if you’re like you know if you’re building a position and betting throughout the year like we do you want to have teams that can you feel like that you’re like they can definitely make a Conference

Finals and I think I’m still one series short with OKC yeah where you know at 22 to1 you could still start you could start hedging and still put yourself in a pretty good position but like if it’s Clippers Thunder 23 I think the Clippers are going to be

Favored in that series you know so you’re not going to get a really good price on it if it’s Thunder nuggets the nuggets are going to be favored considerably in that series Thunder Suns I like the Thunder if it’s a second round series and that’s a two three um

The thing with it with OKC is it does feel like we just have zero we have zero knowledge of who they are like yeah we haven’t seen Shay this version of Shay in the playoffs we saw him when he was just like a kiddo of the Clippers as

Like a role player we haven’t seen this version of as Alexander and this version of the team we haven’t seen Chad haven’t seen jdub we don’t know what it’s what it’s going to look like when it’s a when it’s playoff intensity and if you really are

Just like no I think they’re made for it then yeah you should bet it this is a great number I totally agree like I think they’re legit I just don’t know if they’re legit three rounds that’s my thing is like you gotta you gotta be at least two rounds versus quality

Opponents win four of seven haven’t seen Mark dagal in the playoff series I thinkk one of going win coach of the year I think he’s phenomenal I think he’s terrific I think he’s one of the smartest guys out there I also don’t know if that’s like if like he

Absolutely can because sometimes these things surprise us um it is interesting though that I think that why is it I’m kind of with you I like the value on OKC more than Minnesota why do I like that when OK when the wolves have more veteran experience more playoff

Experience just as good of a coach a a great superstar in Anthony Edward even if he’s not Shay and like a an elite defense why do I feel better about an OKC ticket than a wolfes ticket because the Minnesota timber holes are 21st in offensive

Rating yeah and it’s just at the end of the day it’s like you you really got to be able to score and we know about Rudy go when it comes to the postseason we’ve seen him be a liability at times yeah so to me I would rather have the ticket with Oklahoma City

Thunder like to me why can’t they be the 2010 2011 Oklahoma City Thunder they went to the Western Conference Finals lost 41 to to the Champions sometimes in the NBA there’s a young pup that steps up and maybe they’re not ready maybe it’s a shot or

You know the year when Luca took the Mavericks to the to the to the Western Conference Finals nobody’s pred them going to to to the finals and they just were able to upset one of these older teams and when you when the reason to be scared of the Clippers is

Injury kawai’s never been so it’s just like that injury could flare up rather quickly and then I’m not scared of the Kings the question I have is what are the Pelicans yeah because that’s the team that can throw a monkey wrench in anybody yeah and I was just G talk about

Them they’re 66 to1 I can’t bet them cuz like that ISC performance was so miserable they’ve been so good otherwise like I love everything about this team I just like I I’m still trying to get to a spot where I feel like I can trust them

Where I feel like I know what I’m going to get out of them and I don’t and until I see that I’m gonna have to play it series by series um and kind of stick with them so I’m with you I don’t want Mavericks don’t want don’t want kings uh

For me the best bet is right now if you’re bet the NBA title and I’m not gonna I’ll probably maybe add some of these in the app um is Sixers 12 to uh Sixers 12 to1 to win the title and uh the Clippers six and a half to one plus

650 to win the Western Conference uh you can catch rahee Palmer on the ringer gambling show you can catch him on X Twitter am roster doas you can catch all his great work over there my thanks to David pay our producers as well as Hutt and Jackson

The video Crew putting this up on youtube.com theaction network thanks for joining us everybody we’ll talk to you again on uh Monday when we have the Futures episode we can recap with the future Jays until then let’s get buckets

Action Network Senior NBA Writer Matt Moore is joined by The Ringer’s Raheem Palmer to give out all of their Best Bets for the Friday NBA slate and discuss NBA Finals futures on Buckets presented by BetMGM. Click here for more NBA picks: https://bit.ly/NBAAction

Subscribe to the Buckets podcast: https://www.actionnetwork.com/podcasts/buckets

00:00 – Introduction
02:24 – NBA Friday Best Bets
03:40 – Raptors vs Kings Picks & Preview
05:45 – Knicks vs 76ers Picks & Preview
07:40 – Trail Blazers vs Mavericks Picks & Preview
10:19 – Timberwolves vs Rockets Picks & Preview
13:03 – Heat vs Suns Picks & Preview
14:47 – Grizzlies vs Lakers Picks & Preview
16:55 – Trusting Projections
18:43 – Picks Recap
19:21 – NBA Title Futures
20:34 – Boston Celtics
22:53 – Milwaukee Bucks
26:03 – Philadelphia 76ers
30:55 – Which Futures To Bet
33:37 – Los Angeles Clippers
35:00 – Oklahoma City Thunder
38:42 – New Orleans Pelicans
39:20 – Presented by BetMGM

#nba #nbapicks #basketball

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