The Spurs should take a hard look at trading for Brandon Ingram this offseason. (long analysis, part one)

This is something that I’ve had rolling around in my head for the past few weeks, and since an actual smart basketball person in u/OilCommon3968 has also floated it now (go listen to [his podcast with Noah Magaro-George](https://open.spotify.com/episode/6JDe1r43FgmYMyZyKlVuk7?si=xi54aFOURVuP4pPabJ8OJA) if you haven’t already, by the way), I’ve started thinking about it a little more seriously.

If you’ve been living under a rock, there’s a huge debate going on in the fandom right now as far as whether to accelerate the rebuild in the offseason, and to what extent if so. The name getting the most discussion for obvious reasons is Trae Young, but even among the crowd that likes the idea of trading for more immediate help, opinions are split on whether he fits with the team and/or can be a true #2 guy behind Victor on a contending team. The podcast I linked had by far the best back-and-forth discussion I’ve heard on Young yet, and I still haven’t even decided for sure which side of the fence I ultimately fall on, but either way I don’t think he deserves to completely monopolize trade discussions on this sub.

So I’d like to present some thoughts on an alternative option in Brandon Ingram, another young star that may possibly be dangled on the trade market this coming offseason. I think we’re all somewhat familiar with him already, considering he cooks us pretty much every time we play the Pels, but I’d like to take a slightly deeper dive on him. This is all contingent on the Spurs being confident in their ability to re-sign him, of course, but without further ado, let’s get to the details.

**Why would the Spurs trade for Ingram?**

The best way to answer this question is to reframe it as, “What do the Spurs need most?” Ask any random fan that question and, more often than not, you’ll probably hear, “a point guard.”

I agree with that response in general. Regardless of what other moves the Spurs may or may not make this year, EVENTUALLY they’re going to need an upgrade over Tre Jones to start at the 1. But I think when people beg for a PG, what they’re really begging for in a more immediate sense is “more playmaking and passing.” San Antonio simply does not have anyone that can consistently both break down a defense and hit an open man off of what’s created. Tre is a good passer, but not a very creative one, and he has stretches where his decision making is a little suspect. Plus, his size is a significant limiting factor for what passes are even possible. Vassell and Sochan can break down defenses to varying degrees, but they’re both streaky in that respect, and neither of them has shown an ability to reliably turn those plays into opportunities for teammates (though they’re both improving). Wemby obviously has gravity, and his passing ability is beyond what most thought it would be, but that all comes with a lot of turnovers and I’d contend he doesn’t really know how to read an NBA defense yet.

[BI is quietly one of the five best playmaking and passing wings in the entire league](https://twitter.com/NBEinstein/status/1768318616548659649), and I’m not even sure he’s at his peak yet. Both his assist and potential assist numbers have gone up every year of his career, and this year in particular he’s made noticeable strides in creating something out of nothing for others. He’s excellent at hitting cutters, of which the Spurs have a couple of very smart ones, and he definitely has some lobbing ability. And all of this is with a team whose #1 option in Zion Williamson doesn’t shoot the 3-ball; what would happen if you put him together with Wembanyama? Ingram is not a long-term replacement for a long-term true PG and floor general, but he has the skills to immediately bring a lot of the same things to the table – enough to take some load off of a rookie that we might draft, even.

There’s something else the Spurs are in desperate need of, though: reliable shooting on the wing. I don’t think this needs much explanation. Ingram is a career 36% shooter from three – not amazing – but he’s gone as high as 39% in multiple seasons (on 6 attempts per game in ‘19-20, even), and there are only three players currently on this team shooting at or above 36%. Two of them are Osman and Champagnie, and I think we can all agree that neither of them figure into our long-term plans in a big way. For a team with arguably the worst spacing in the league, Ingram even at his career average would be transformative. The midrange is still his calling card, but defenses having to at least scheme for both him and Vassell beyond the arc instead of just Vassell would make an enormous difference.

He also brings some good positional size, which outside of Wemby is pretty lacking on the roster. Not a giant by any means, but he’s taller and longer than most starting SFs in the NBA right now with upper-tier athleticism, he rebounds well, and his defense has progressed to the point that he can be trusted to do at least a decent job on multiple positions. Even with Wemby, I worry a bit about a starting lineup with 6’8 Sochan at the PF, so that extra length would go a long way.

The big point I want to make here is that Ingram kills multiple birds with one stone, and I don’t know if you could make that argument for any of the other popular trade target ideas Spurs fans are throwing around. We’ve seen recently that Vassell and Wemby are starting to develop some great two-man game chemistry that looks dangerous. An Ingram/Victor two-man game would be even more insane, especially since it opens Vassell up as another kickout option… And then we can still add a true PG as another playmaker beyond that.

Also, as a quick aside to talking about what the Spurs need, I want to also touch on what the Spurs *don’t* need, and the answer is “every individual draft pick that they’ve traded for in the last few years. I think people need to disabuse themselves of the notion that we’re going to use EVERY first rounder that’s currently in our pocket, even if we keep taking the rebuild slowly. There just aren’t enough roster spots to go around to build a perennial contender that way. At some point or another, we are absolutely going to move SOME picks for a player or three.

**Why would the Pelicans trade Ingram?**

The most obvious reason is money. New Orleans obviously wants to stay competitive in the near future, but they’re also a team that’s pretty obsessive about avoiding the luxury tax. Those two goals are often at odds with each other, but the Pels have a little window in the next few years where they might be able to make it work.

Herb Jones is looking like the best value contract in the league right now. He’s an All-Defensive-caliber player shooting 43% from 3 this season on 3.5 attempts per game. Even if that percentage comes back down to earth a little bit, that’s an elite piece to have when he’s making less than $15 million through the ‘26-27 season. Then you’ve got Trey Murphy, who seems to have figured out his offense again after some shaky stretches this year – he’s due for a solid raise at the end of his contract, but they’re still only paying him $5 million next year. Add in McCollum, who sometimes gets forgotten by non-Pelican fans but is pretty integral to the team’s identity right now, and Zion, and you’ve got 4 out of 5 high-level starters making a combined ~$90 million next year. There’s not many teams that can say that – even OKC doesn’t have four players *that* good for *that* cheap.

Where they need help is at the center position. Valanciunas is coming off the books after this year, and I don’t see them bringing him back unless he bizarrely takes a super low deal because… there’s just a lot he can’t really do. He doesn’t stretch the floor effectively, he doesn’t protect the rim, he’s not a lob threat, he fouls a lot… His box score stats are solid, but he doesn’t fit their coach’s basketball vision and there’s a reason he only plays ~20 minutes a game when the team is healthy. He’s not a bad player, but I don’t think he’s a starting center on a championship team. There are some good options out there both in free agency and the trade market, but they’re going to cost more than Valanciunas in one way or another. Claxton, Hartenstein, Jarrett Allen – name your favorite; the point is that the Pelicans are not going to get a real contender-level upgrade for less than $20 million at the minimum.

That leaves Ingram’s cap hit starting to look a little beastly. $36 million next year, and he’ll get more than that when he hits free agency in 2025, which is also when Murphy’s contract is up. One way or another, there’s a big-time cap crunch coming for the Pels if they want a championship window that’s longer than a couple years while still avoiding the tax.

At the end of the day, without getting even deeper into the weeds of fit and basketball theory, I feel very strongly that New Orleans would rather start Trey Murphy at his $5 million salary next year than Ingram at his $36 million. There’s simply not a $30 million gap in talent between the two, and hell, if you ask some Pelican fans they’ll tell you that sometimes the fit even seems slightly better with Murphy on the floor instead of Ingram – the spacing is slightly better and he’s got great two-man-game chemistry with Zion. They can do a lot with that extra cash and the other assets they have available.

**Okay, so what would the Pels want for him?**

This is the toughest question to answer, because it’s really pretty heavily dependent on what other player(s) the Pelicans are targeting this offseason. If they’re going to make a big-time effort to go after an FA like Claxton or Hartenstein, plus some wing depth to make up for Murphy becoming a full-time starter, they might just want mostly picks in a direct trade with the Spurs. Not only would that bring immediate salary relief to open up the cap room for that kind of signing, it also gives them additional ability to hopefully extend their competitive window more easily in the future with young, cheap talent. They’ve got a few decent but not amazing draft picks from other teams over the next few years, but even just the Atlanta picks we’re holding are considerably more attractive. They might ask for Sochan, but I think they’d probably be aware that ain’t gonna happen for a pending UFA.

As ever, there are also some intriguing 3-team trade options. I’m gonna cover those in Part 2, though.

I think a good place to start is with the package Indiana just gave up for Pascal Siakam. Like Ingram, he’s a former all-star that’s still in his twenties, on the last year of his contract with a team for which re-signing didn’t make sense for one reason or another. Ingram, I think, is the better offensive player, but Siakam clears him on defense, and Ingram comes with some injury concerns. All in all, I think their value could be argued to be fairly equal.

Bruce Brown, Kira Lewis, Jordan Nwora, and three first-round picks made up the Siakam package. The players were basically nothings; even Brown was mediocre with the Pacers and mostly served as salary filler, even if Toronto did sorta kinda try to flip him to another team. The picks are nice, but again, not amazing – almost certain to all be out of the lottery. The Pelicans are obviously in a much different situation as far as competitiveness than the Raptors, but I don’t think that’s hugely relevant to this discussion. If NOP doesn’t want to lose Ingram for nothing, they have to either throw out their usual conventions and go well into the tax, or trade him. And at that point, value is value.

In short, the price probably wouldn’t be as high as one might expect offhand. The Raptors pick this year if it conveys, one of the Atlanta picks, and something like the Chicago pick or Boston 2028 swap might actually get talks relatively close. That’s not the offer I’d start with or anything, but it’s also not an incredible overpay given our cabinet of draft capital.

**I’m not reading all that, just give me a summary.**

Ingram makes up for MANY of the Spurs’ deficiencies and could be gettable for a reasonable price. The Pelicans have incentive to trade him in the offseason, especially if they flame out spectacularly in the playoffs, because they likely can’t or won’t extend him this summer or re-sign him when his contract is up in 2025 in favor of Trey Murphy. It’s a bit of an out-there idea, but provided the Spurs can extend him, it makes more and more sense to me the more I think about it.

by throwstuff165