There have been a few threads in r/ nba bringing up Luka’s prospects for MVP — for all those interested in that, there’s some good news/corroboration of your feelings.
Following the 36pt drubbing of the Kings, Luka has ascended to the 2nd place on [Basketball Reference’s MVP Tracker](https://www.basketball-reference.com/friv/mvp.html). He has not been as high since 5 November. After starting the season at the top of the tracker, he dropped to second after the loss to Nuggets in the 5th game of the season and soon thereafter dropped to 3rd.
Recently, Luka, Giannis and Shai have all been hovering in the low-teens-% for the last week or so, with Jokic well ahead. Luka has emerged on top of the chaser group for the first time.
BBRef MVP tracker is a simple model based on individual players’ PTS, AST and REB per game as well as team wins. [They outlined how it works here.](https://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/index59b6.html?p=3898) It is, in itself, of course meaningless. However, it has historically been surprisingly predictive for such a simple model — and it’s fun.
[Today’s rankings for future reference.](https://imgur.com/a/vXzknXT)
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by sercialinho
12 Comments
Vegas still dosent like his odds… but the chances are there.
I’ve held the opinion for a while now that if Luka can get this team to a top 4 seed with all of the bad injury luck, bad coaching, and downright unlucky opposition shot-making (*cough* Cleveland *cough*) I think he should be the MVP. I just didn’t think the 4 seed was in play until very recently. I fear the media has already crowned Jokic the MVP though.
However, if we come bursting out of the gates next year with this squad and get a bit better injury luck and finish in the top 4 then idk how the media denies him.
Only way Luka wins MVP is if we are n1 seed and the Nuggest are trash
Even if Luka goes on a tear these last 9 games and we end up with the 4th seed, id be very surprised if he wins it. Seems like the American media really want SGA to win it.
Jokic -1000 lmao it’s over ?
Boy are those threads nasty
Nah NBA.com will drop him to 5th
The formula is clearly more sophisticated than that. He even says that he omits the fine details.
If the formula really was that simple, then Tatum would have way more than 4.3%.
Jokic has feasted on that tracker for years now, even as a 6th seed. A simple formula ain’t picking up how devastatingly impactful Jokic was that year and basically was beginning to take over the league.
MVP for Jokic. FMVP for Luka.
I’m OK with Jokic still being #1, but Luka should be #2.
and if we can actually rise up and get that #4 seed? Luka should win it. his stats are crazy and that would be a great finish for the Mavs all things considered.
If the mavs finish the season in the 4th seed, he’ll get it. Anything else, it’s jokic imo even tho I think it should still be Luka even if we’re 5th
It’s not gonna happen, but he needs to be 2-3 in the weekly polls. Putting him at 4+ like that have been is disrespectful.