Does NBA Have A Tanking Problem Or a Panic Problem? | NBA Expansion Is Coming Soon(ish)
Adam Silver says he’s committed to fixing the NBA’s tanking problem. Is this a real issue or the panic du jour? Plus, NBA expansion seems to be gaining tangible momentum as the league looks to expand.
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17 Comments
I agree that tanking at the start of the season wouldn’t be a problem… especially if they also restrict pick protections. I also don’t think we can draw a line between which teams currently/historically would have the best odds under this system and how it would play out in practice. The tanking teams naturally wouldn’t fare well because they’re trying not to win. Washington and Utah would probably fare better in reality than they would hypothetically if this was actually implemented and they were trying to win games.
I think the bigger problem, since this probably would still benefit the mediocre teams the most, is teams tanking the play-in so they can be eligible for the lottery. My first instinct would be to expand this to include all play-in teams as well and have a 20 team lottery, assuming nobody would tank out of a top 6 outright playoff seed for the lottery (and since they probably wouldn’t have a lot of lottery points anyways). At this point it would just comes down down to how okay we are with the very real possibility that a team wins a round or two in the playoffs and also ends up with the best odds in the lottery. As much as this feels like a fringe possibility, I think it would become even more likely if mediocre teams are incentivized to make win-now trades at the deadline to both win lottery points and make a playoff push late in the season
I really don’t like the gold points idea because it’s tied to conferences. If one conference is better/deeper than the other, it would only further consolidate talent to that conference since its bad teams will be eliminated from the postseason sooner. It also feels like a fancier version of the “losses count until March and then we count wins” idea, which I also don’t really like
NBA tanking is not a problem for fans. The real problem is that there is zero confidence in the integrity of the lottery.
Just wanna say, I do appreciate Bill Oram fully committing to dying on that hill.
I think his approach was unhelpful and excessive, but I do respect him pushing all his cards in on preventing something everyone agrees would be catastrophic.
I like the lottery points idea a lot. The biggest issue I think is that it only recognizes outcomes from the current year and fails to give consideration properly to teams like Sacramento and New Orleans that are perennially bad. Perhaps a better system would be to use lottery points in combination with the loss total from the previous three years. There could be an equation where half of your lottery odds come from lottery points from the current year and half of your odds come from combined losses over the previous three seasons.
I'm not saying what I'm about to say is the best way for the lottery, but it would definitely make things different. 3 brackets, the bottom 3 teams, than team 4- 8, than teams 9-14. Each bracket has its own lottery where 1 of those teams is guaranteed a top 3 pick. It than would be a randomizer via ping pong balls to determine the top 3 picks from winners of said brackets. The rest of the teams are than put into a pool where they all have the same odds to get picks 4-14. This makes it so there is zero reason to tank.
Intellectually
Stimulating,
Informative,
Entertaining.
☆☆☆☆☆
If the State of Oregon government wants to raise funds for the remodel of the Moda why not have an option with the kicker funds to donate your kicker check back into a kitty for the remodel. Optional for each citizen. Personally I would do it and feel great about it. Wife, not so much.
The idea of lottery points could also extend to combat another serious problem in the NBA – good teams resting good players because they honestly don’t care that much about playoff seeding. In addition to a draft lottery for the 10 non-playoff/play-in teams, there could be additional lotteries for (1) the four play-in teams that don’t advance to the playoffs (2) the 8 first round playoff losers (3) the 4 teams that lose in the second round (4) the remaining 4 teams making a deep playoff run.
I think that could make a difference in team strategy For a playoff team like Minnesota for example, having a lot of lottery points might move you up several places in the draft – maybe you end up picking 19th instead of 23rd. Even for conference finalists, picking 27th is definitely better than 30th.
I agree that tanking is not a huge problem. I watched a couple of Sacramento games last month and Westbrook and DeRozan were balling. That half court offensive was fun to see and they won a close game. Tweaking yes, but we still need a weighted lottery to create parity. Teams tank, players play. The tanking tournament? LOL
Here's an idea. The NBA already has revenue sharing so if i understand it correctly all teams (unlike baseball) have an equal chance financially to compete. How about having a draft lottery for the entire league every year giving teams an equal opportunity to be good or bad. This woiuld place pressure for teams to have better management. Just a wild thought.
As far as I can tell the Blazers have been tanking since Drexler went to Houston.
I’m from South Dakota and a blazers fan and one year I bought tickets hoping to watch Dame and everyone play in Minnesota in April but the only players to play in that game were like Brandon Williams and CJ Elleby 😭 never got to see the guys play and the only game I’ve been to so I’m all for anything to prevent tanking lol
Regardless of any of the changes to the lottery structure, the actual lottery process of ping pong balls must be televised because no fan trusts their garbage. I mean seriously: Duncan to SA on backend of Robinsons career, LeBron to Cleveland (his hometown), Cleveland getting the #1 pick 3 times in a 4 yr span from 2011-2014, and of course who will ever forget Dallas trading Luka to LA for a leaky trash can and a bag peanuts and then magically with a 1% odds getting the #1 pick and drafting Cooper Flagg.
I would argue that the biggest problem with the lottery isn’t the structure. The biggest problem is transparency of the integrity of the ping pong ball process. I mean really, we are supposed to believe that 3 guys go in a private room and come out and tell everyone what happened??? Give me a friggin break! You wanna know what would be super exciting must see TV? Televising the ping pong ball lottery for everyone to see so we would all learn in real time what team picks where.
26:30 #1 League should move Memphis Grizzlies to the Eastern Conference
#2 Expand teams to Seattle & Las Vegas
I think the lottery part needs to go or only be for the 5 worst teams the rest in order of record. I’m tired of seeing play in teams or teams with the 8th worst record get the top picks. It seems like if you’re a big market team (spurs, hawks, mavs) you seem to always jump up on the draft….
I like the lottery points system but I do have a major concern. What if there is a play-in team that has accrued A LOT of lottery points to the level where they might want to deliberately lose their play in game in order to chase a high draft pick? Maybe the play in teams who lose are automatically locked out of the lottery top 4.